Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Neonatal mortality: description and effect of hospital of birth after risk adjustment

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of hospital of birth on neonatal mortality. METHODS: A birth cohort study was carried out in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 2004. All hospital births were assessed by daily visits to all maternity hospitals and 4558 deliveries were included in the study. Mothers were interviewed regarding potential risk factors. Deaths were monitored through regular visits to hospitals, cemeteries and register offices. Two independent pediatricians established the underlying cause of death based on information obtained from medical records and home visits to parents. Logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of hospital of birth, controlling for confounders related to maternal and newborn characteristics, according to a conceptual model. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was 12.7‰ and it was highly influenced by birthweight, gestational age, and socioeconomic variables. Immaturity was responsible for 65% of neonatal deaths, followed by congenital anomalies, infections and intrapartum asphyxia. Adjusting for maternal characteristics, a three-fold increase in neonatal mortality was seen between similar complexity hospitals. The effect of hospital remained, though lower, after controlling for newborn characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Neonatal mortality was high, mainly related to immaturity, and varied significantly across maternity hospitals. Further investigations comparing delivery care practices across hospitals are needed to better understand NMR variation and to develop strategies for neonatal mortality reduction.

Corporal and testicular biometry in wild boar from birth to 12 months of age

The aim of this tudy was to evaluate corporal and testicular development in wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa) from birth to 12 months of age, evaluating body weight, biometric testicular parameters, and gonadosomatic index. Thirty-nine male wild boars from a commercial farm licensed by IBAMA were used in the study. The animals were weighed and assigned to 13 experimental groups. The testes were recovered through unilateral orchiectomy, weighed on an analytical balance and measured for length, width and thickness. Body weight and testicular measures increased with the age, up to 12 months, and were more accelerated in the first and ninth months. Initially the testicular growth pattern, between zero and nine months, followed the body growth, and the gonadosomatic index varied from 0.07 to 0.09%. Between 9 and 11 months, the testicular growth was superior to the body growth, and the gonadosomatic index varied from 0.09 to 0.16%. Finally, after 11 months of age, testicular and body growth had a similar behavior. In conclusion, body weight, testicular biometry, and gonadosomatic index development accelerated in the ninth month.

The population of Brazil

In 1970 the population of Brazil with 94,508,554 inhabitants was extreme youth, since 42.67% was composed of children under 14 years old. In that year the proportion of female was 50.2%. The population density increased from 1.17 inhabitants /km² in 1872 to 11.18 in 1970, and in this last year the range was 1.03 in the North region and 43.90 in the South-East region. The urban population increased from 31.24% in 1940 to 55.98% in 1970 and for the first time the rural population was smaller than the urban population. In 1950 concerning with marital status 39% of the population 15 years old and over was single and 54% married. In 1970 this rate was respectively 35.4% and 56.6%. The population economically inactive increased from 49.17% in 1940 to 52.24% in 1970. The literacy ratio increased from 43% in 1940, to 48% in 1950 and 68.04% in 1970. The crude birth rate was 43/1000 live births in 1950 and fell to 37.7/1000 in 1970. The fertility rate decreased from 179.3/1000 women (15-49 years old} to 156.7/1000 in 1960/70. The crude death rate decreased from 20.60/1000 inhabitants in 1940/50 to 9.4/1000 in 1960/70. The infant mortality rate still remains high: 171/1000 live births in 1940/50 and 170/1000 in 1971. Concerning with the size of the cities, 8 in 1940 had 100,000 or more inhabitants and in 1970 this number increased to 94 cities. The population growth increased from 2.38% in 1940/50, to 2.99% in 1950/60 and 2.83% in 1960./70. Brazil is the first country in population size in Latin America and the eighth in the world. Concerning his area, Brazil is the fifth country in size.

Possible consequences of increasing life expectancy in Brazil: the perspective of a European historical demographer

Those over sixty years of age accounted for 6.6% of the total population of Brazil in 1985, in the Federal Republic of Germany this proportion was 20.3% in 1984. As early as 1950 it had been 14.5%. This proportion will not even be reached in Brazil in the year 2000 when persons aged sixty years and older are only projected to make up 8.8% of the total population. Similarly, in 1982/84 life expectancy at birth in the Federal Republic was 70.8 years for men and 77.5 for women; in Brazil the figures for 1980/85 were, by contrast, "only" 61.0 and 66.0. Against this background it is easy to understand why the discussion concerning an ageing society with its many related medical, economic, individual and social problems has been so slow in coming into its own in Brazil. As important as a more intensive consideration of these aspects may be in Brazil at present, they are, nevertheless, only one side of the story. For a European historical demographer with a long-term perspective of three of four hundred years, the other side of the story is just as important. The life expectancy which is almost ten years lower in Brazil is not a result of the fact that no one in Brazil lives to old age. In 1981 people sixty-five years and older accounted for 34.4% of all deaths! At the same time infants accounted for only 22.1% of total mortality. They are responsible, along with the "premature" deaths among youths and adults, for the low, "average" life expectancy figure. In Europe, by contrast, these "premature" deaths no longer play much of a role. In 1982/84 more than half of the women (52.8%) in the Federal Republic of Germany lived to see their eightieth birthdays and almost half of the men (47.3%) lived to see their seventy-fifth. Our biological existence is guaranteed to an extent today that would have been unthinkable a few generations ago. Then, the classic troika of "plague, hunger and war" threatened our forefathers all the time and everywhere. The radical transition from the formerly uncertain to a present-day certain lifetime, which is the result of the repression of "plague, hunger and war", led to unexpected consequences for our living together. Our forefathers were forced to live in closely knit Gemeinschaften in the interest of physical survival and to subordinate their egoistic goals to a common value, but now these pressures have, for the most part, fallen away. Correspondingly, this much more certain EGO has taken center stage. An ever greater number of us chooses to live life as single beings: the number of marriages is lower every year; the number of divorces is on the increase; in Berlin (West) more than half (sic! 52.3%) of all households are already composed on only one person. For the last dozen years the annual number of births in the Federal Republic has been insufficient to ensure population replacement. Not a population explosion but rather the opposite, a population implosion, is our problem. Human beings do not appear to be "social animals", as was axiomatically assumed for so long. They were only forced to behave as such for as long as "plague, hunger and war" forced them to do so. When these life endangering conditions no longer exist and life becomes certain even without their being integrated into a Gemeinschaft then humans suddenly show themselves more and more to be independent single beings. It is not the percentage of the population that is over sixty or sixty-five that is decisive in this context but rather how certain adults perceive their biological lives to be, since they are the ones who organize their lives, who build communities or who are ever more often willing only to enter into means-to-an-end personal unions without lasting or close ties and mutual responsibilities. There are many signs which seem to point to a development in this direction in Brazil as well. More and more adults in Brazil are caught up in the deep-seated transition from an uncertain to a certain lifetime. A third of them die after having reached their sixty-fifth birthday. It therefore seems to me to be high time that one began to give more consideration to the other side of the story in Brazil as well. And who is more suited intensively to consider the long-term perspectives than those engaged in the public health sector in whose competence, after all, such aspects, as "life certainty", "life expectancy" and "age at death" belong?

Geographical patterns of proportionate mortality for the most common causes of death in Brazil

Mortality due to chronic diseases has been increasing in all regions of Brazil with corresponding decreases in mortality from infectious diseases. The geographical variation in proportionate mortality for chronic diseases for 17 Brazilian state capitals for the year 1985 and their association with socio-economic variables and infectious disease was studied. Calculations were made of correlation coefficients of proportionate mortality for adults of 30 years or above due to ischaemic heart disease, stroke and cancer of the lung, the breast and stomach with 3 socio-economic variables, race, and mortality due to infectious disease. Linear regression analysis included as independent variables the % of illiteracy, % of whites, % of houses with piped water, mean income, age group, sex, and % of deaths caused by infectious disease. The dependent variables were the % of deaths due to each one of the chronic diseases studied by age-sex group. Chronic diseases were an important cause of death in all regions of Brazil. Ischaemic heart diseases, stroke and malignant neoplasms accounted for more than 34% of the mortality in each of the 17 capitals studied. Proportionate cause-specific mortality varied markedly among state capitals. Ranges were 6.3-19.5% for ischaemic heart diseases, 8.3-25.4% for stroke, 2.3-10.4% for infections and 12.2-21.5% for malignant neoplasm. Infectious disease mortality had the highest (p < 0.001) correlation with all the four socio-economic variables studied and ischaemic heart disease showed the second highest correlation (p < 0.05). Higher socio-economic level was related to a lower % of infectious diseases and a higher % of ischaemic heart diseases. Mortality due to breast cancer and stroke was not associated with socio-economic variables. Multivariate linear regression models explained 59% of the variance among state capitals for mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, 50% for stroke, 28% for lung cancer, 24% for breast cancer and 40% for stomach cancer. There were major differences in the proportionate mortality due to chronic diseases among the capitals which could not be accounted for by the social and environmental factors and by the mortality due to infectious disease.

Comparative evaluation of underlying causes of death processed by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities and the Underlying Cause of Death Selection Systems

INTRODUCTION: The correct identification of the underlying cause of death and its precise assignment to a code from the International Classification of Diseases are important issues to achieve accurate and universally comparable mortality statistics These factors, among other ones, led to the development of computer software programs in order to automatically identify the underlying cause of death. OBJECTIVE: This work was conceived to compare the underlying causes of death processed respectively by the Automated Classification of Medical Entities (ACME) and the "Sistema de Seleção de Causa Básica de Morte" (SCB) programs. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The comparative evaluation of the underlying causes of death processed respectively by ACME and SCB systems was performed using the input data file for the ACME system that included deaths which occurred in the State of S. Paulo from June to December 1993, totalling 129,104 records of the corresponding death certificates. The differences between underlying causes selected by ACME and SCB systems verified in the month of June, when considered as SCB errors, were used to correct and improve SCB processing logic and its decision tables. RESULTS: The processing of the underlying causes of death by the ACME and SCB systems resulted in 3,278 differences, that were analysed and ascribed to lack of answer to dialogue boxes during processing, to deaths due to human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease for which there was no specific provision in any of the systems, to coding and/or keying errors and to actual problems. The detailed analysis of these latter disclosed that the majority of the underlying causes of death processed by the SCB system were correct and that different interpretations were given to the mortality coding rules by each system, that some particular problems could not be explained with the available documentation and that a smaller proportion of problems were identified as SCB errors. CONCLUSION: These results, disclosing a very low and insignificant number of actual problems, guarantees the use of the version of the SCB system for the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases and assures the continuity of the work which is being undertaken for the Tenth Revision version.

Mid-upper arm circumference in pregnant women and its relation to birth weight

OBJECTIVE: In order to determine the relationship between some maternal anthropometric indicators and birth weight, crown-heel length and newborn's head circumference, 92 pregnant women were followed through at the prenatal service of hospital in S. Paulo, Brazil. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The following variables were established for the mother: weight, height, mid-upper arm circumference, pre-pregnancy weight, gestational weight gain and Quetelet's index. For the newborn the following variables were recorded: birth weight, crown-heel length, head circumference and gestational age by Dubowitz's method. RESULTS: Significant associations were noted between gestational age and newborn variables. In addition, maternal mid-arm circumference (MUAC) and pre-pregnancy weight were found to be positively correlated to birth weight (r=0.399; r=0.378, respectively). The multivariate linear regression shows that gestational age, mother's arm circumference and pre-pregnancy weight continue to be significant predictors of birth weight. On the other hand, only gestational age and mother's age was associated with crown-heel length. Similarly MUAC was significantly associated with crown-heel length (r= 0.306; P=0.0030). CONCLUSION: Maternal mid-upper arm circumference is a potential indicator of maternal nutritional status. It could be used in association with other anthropometric measurements, instead of pre-pregnancy weight, as an alternative indicator to assess women at risk of poor pregnancy outcome.

Risk factors for the increasing trend in low birth weight among live births born by vaginal delivery, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for low birth weight (LBW) among live births by vaginal delivery and to determine if the disappearance of the association between LBW and socioeconomic factors was due to confounding by cesarean section. METHODS: Data were obtained from two population-based cohorts of singleton live births in Ribeirão Preto, Southeastern Brazil. The first one comprised 4,698 newborns from June 1978 to May 1979 and the second included 1,399 infants born from May to August 1994. The risks for LBW were tested in a logistic model, including the interaction of the year of survey and all independent variables under analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW among vaginal deliveries increased from 7.8% in 1978--79 to 10% in 1994. The risk was higher for: female or preterm infants; newborns of non-cohabiting mothers; newborns whose mothers had fewer prenatal visits or few years of education; first-born infants; and those who had smoking mothers. The interaction of the year of survey with gestational age indicated that the risk of LBW among preterm infants fell from 17.75 to 8.71 in 15 years. The mean birth weight decreased more significantly among newborns from qualified families, who also had the highest increase in preterm birth and non-cohabitation. CONCLUSIONS: LBW among vaginal deliveries increased mainly due to a rise in the proportion of preterm births and non-cohabiting mothers. The association between cesarean section and LBW tended to cover up socioeconomic differences in the likelihood of LBW. When vaginal deliveries were analyzed independently, these socioeconomic differences come up again.

Infant mortality and low birth weight in cities of Northeastern and Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To compare estimates of low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), and infant mortality in two birth cohorts in Brazil. METHODS: The two cohorts were performed during the 1990s, in São Luís, located in a less developed area in Northeastern Brazil, and Ribeirão Preto, situated in a more developed region in Southeastern Brazil. Data from one-third of all live births in Ribeirão Preto in 1994 were collected (2,839 single deliveries). In São Luís, systematic sampling of deliveries stratified by maternity hospital was performed from 1997 to 1998 (2,439 single deliveries). The chi-squared (for categories and trends) and Student t tests were used in the statistical analyses. RESULTS: The LBW rate was lower in São Luís, thus presenting an epidemiological paradox. The preterm birth rates were similar, although expected to be higher in Ribeirão Preto because of the direct relationship between preterm birth and LBW. Dissociation between LBW and infant mortality was observed, since São Luís showed a lower LBW rate and higher infant mortality, while the opposite occurred in Ribeirão Preto. CONCLUSIONS: Higher prevalence of maternal smoking and better access to and quality of perinatal care, thereby leading to earlier medical interventions (cesarean section and induced preterm births) that resulted in more low weight live births than stillbirths in Ribeirão Preto, may explain these paradoxes. The ecological dissociation observed between LBW and infant mortality indicates that the LBW rate should no longer be systematically considered as an indicator of social development.

Infant mortality: comparison between two birth cohorts from Southeast and Northeast, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To obtain population estimates and profile risk factors for infant mortality in two birth cohorts and compare them among cities of different regions in Brazil. METHODS: In Ribeirão Preto, southeast Brazil, infant mortality was determined in a third of hospital live births (2,846 singleton deliveries) in 1994. In São Luís, northeast Brazil, data were obtained using systematic sampling of births stratified by maternity unit (2,443 singleton deliveries) in 1997-1998. Mothers answered standardized questionnaires shortly after delivery and information on infant deaths was retrieved from hospitals, registries and the States Health Secretarys' Office. The relative risk (RR) was estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In São Luís, the infant mortality rate was 26.6/1,000 live births, the neonatal mortality rate was 18.4/1,000 and the post-neonatal mortality rate was 8.2/1,000, all higher than those observed in Ribeirão Preto (16.9, 10.9 and 6.0 per 1,000, respectively). Adjusted analysis revealed that previous stillbirths (RR=3.67 vs 4.13) and maternal age <18 years (RR=2.62 vs 2.59) were risk factors for infant mortality in the two cities. Inadequate prenatal care (RR=2.00) and male sex (RR=1.79) were risk factors in São Luís only, and a dwelling with 5 or more residents was a protective factor (RR=0.53). In Ribeirão Preto, maternal smoking was associated with infant mortality (RR=2.64). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to socioeconomic inequalities, differences in access to and quality of medical care between cities had an impact on infant mortality rates.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

Methodological aspects of the 1993 Pelotas (Brazil) birth cohort study

This paper describes the main methodological aspects of a cohort study, with emphasis on its recent phases, which may be relevant to investigators planning to carry out similar studies. In 1993, a population based study was launched in Pelotas, Southern Brazil. All 5,249 newborns delivered in the city's hospitals were enrolled, and sub-samples were visited at the ages of one, three and six months and of one and four years. In 2004-5 it was possible to trace 87.5% of the cohort at the age of 10-12 years. Sub-studies are addressing issues related to oral health, psychological development and mental health, body composition, and ethnography. Birth cohort studies are essential for investigating the early determinants of adult disease and nutritional status, yet few such studies are available from low and middle-income countries where these determinants may differ from those documented in more developed settings.

Obesity and gestational weight gain: cesarean delivery and labor complications

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between pre-gestational obesity and weight gain with cesarean delivery and labor complications. METHODS: A total of 4,486 women 20-28 weeks pregnant attending general prenatal care clinics of the national health system in Brazil from 1991 to 1995 were enrolled and followed up through birth. Body mass index categories based on prepregnancy weight and total weight gain were calculated. Associations between body mass index categories and labor complications were adjusted through logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Obesity was present in 308 (6.9%) patients. Cesarean delivery was performed in 164 (53.2%) obese, 407 (43.1%) pre-obese, 1,045 (35.1%) normal weight and 64 (24.5%) underweight women. The relative risk for cesarean delivery in obese women was 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.0) compared to normal weight women. Greater weight gain was particularly associated with cesarean among the obese (RR 4th vs 2nd weight gain quartile 2.2; 95% CI: 1.4-3.2). Increased weight at the beginning of pregnancy was associated with a significantly higher adjusted risk of meconium with vaginal delivery and perinatal death and infection in women submitted to cesarean section. Similarly, greater weight gain during pregnancy increased the risk for meconium and hemorrhage in women submitted to vaginal delivery and for prematurity with cesarean. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-gestational obesity and greater weight gain independently increase the risk of cesarean delivery, as well as of several adverse outcomes with vaginal delivery. These findings provide further evidence of the negative effects of prepregnancy obesity and greater gestational weight gain on pregnancy outcomes.

Lack of association between iron status at birth and growth of preterm infants

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between iron status at birth and growth of preterm infants. METHODS: Ninety-five premature babies (26 to 36 weeks of gestational age) born from July 2000 to May 2001 in a public hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, were followed up for six months, corrected by gestational age. Iron measurements at birth were available for 82 mothers and 78 children: hemoglobin, hematocrit, mean corpuscular volume and plasma iron. All children received free doses of iron supplement (2 mg/kg/day) during the follow-up period and up to two years of age. Multivariate linear regression analyses with repeated measurements were performed to assess factors associated to linear growth. RESULTS: Growth was more pronounced up to 40 weeks of gestational age, increasing about 1.0 cm/week and then slowing down to 0.75 cm/week. The multivariate analysis showed growth was positively associated with birth weight (0.4 cm/100 g; p<0.001) and negatively associated with gestational age at birth (-0.5 cm/week; p<0.001). There was no association between cord iron and mother iron measurements and growth (p>0.60 for all measures). Only two children had anemia at birth, whereas 43.9% of mothers were anemic (hemoglobin <11 g/dl). Also, there was no correlation between anemia indicators of mothers and children at birth (r<0.15; p>0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal anemia was not associated with anemia in preterm infants and iron status of mothers and children at birth was not associated with short-term growth of preterm infants.