A comparative analysis of Cobb-Douglas model with additive and multiplicative error

This paper dis cusses the fitting of a Cobb-Doug las response curve Yi = αXβi, with additive error, Yi = αXβi + e i, instead of the usual multiplicative error Yi = αXβi (1 + e i). The estimation of the parameters A and B is discussed. An example is given with use of both types of error.

Th-1 and Th-2 cytokine production in infants with virus-associated wheezing

Wheezing associated with respiratory viral infections in infancy is very common and results in high morbidity worldwide. The Th1/Th2 pattern of immune response in these patients remains unclear and previous studies have shown controversial results. The aim of the present study was to compare the type of Th1/Th2 cytokine response between infants with acute bronchiolitis, recurrent wheezing and upper respiratory infections from a developing country. Infants younger than 2 years of age admitted to Hospital São Lucas, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, between May and November 2001, with an acute episode of wheezing associated with viral respiratory infection were selected. Subjects with upper respiratory infections from the emergency department were selected for the control group. Interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) and interleukin-4 (IL-4) levels from nasal aspirates were determined by ELISA from peripheral mononuclear cell cultures. Twenty-nine subjects with acute bronchiolitis, 18 with recurrent wheezing and 15 with upper respiratory infections were enrolled. There were no differences in family history of atopy or parental smoking between groups. Oxygen requirement was similar for the acute bronchiolitis and recurrent wheezing groups. The percentage of positive tests for the cytokines studied and the IFN-gamma/IL-4 ratio was similar for all groups. Comparison of the polarized Th1/Th2 cytokine results for the various groups showed no specific pattern of cytokine production. Infants with wheezing from a developing country do not show any specific predominant pattern of Th1/Th2 cytokine production, suggesting that multiple factors may be involved in the pathogenesis of this illness.

An alternative method for screening lactic acid bacteria for the production of exopolysaccharides with rapid confirmation

The accumulation of exopolysaccharides (EPS) produced by microorganisms occurs in the presence of excess substrate and limiting conditions of elements that are essential to growth, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and magnesium. The presence of EPS produced by bacterial cells contributes to slime colonies formation in solid medium and increased viscosity in liquid medium. This paper proposes an alternative method for screening EPS-producing lactic acid bacteria using solid medium-containing discs of filter paper that are saturated with active cultures. The screening was carried out under different culture conditions varying the type of sugar, pH, and temperature. EPS production was visualized by the presence of mucoid colonies on the discs, which was confirmed by the formation of a precipitate when part of this colony was mixed with absolute alcohol. The established conditions for obtaining a high number of isolates producing EPS were 10% sucrose, pH 7.5 and 28 ºC. This method proved to be effective and economical because several strains could be tested on the same plate, with immediate confirmation.

An in vitro model for dengue virus infection that exhibits human monocyte infection, multiple cytokine production and dexamethasone immunomodulation

An important cytokine role in dengue fever pathogenesis has been described. These molecules can be associated with haemorrhagic manifestations, coagulation disorders, hypotension and shock, all symptoms implicated in vascular permeability and disease worsening conditions. Several immunological diseases have been treated by cytokine modulation and dexamethasone is utilized clinically to treat pathologies with inflammatory and autoimmune ethiologies. We established an in vitro model with human monocytes infected by dengue virus-2 for evaluating immunomodulatory and antiviral activities of potential pharmaceutical products. Flow cytometry analysis demonstrated significant dengue antigen detection in target cells two days after infection. TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha, IL-6 and IL-10 are produced by in vitro infected monocytes and are significantly detected in cell culture supernatants by multiplex microbead immunoassay. Dexamethasone action was tested for the first time for its modulation in dengue infection, presenting optimistic results in both decreasing cell infection rates and inhibiting TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha and IL-10 production. This model is proposed for novel drug trials yet to be applyed for dengue fever.

Accountability and co-production of information and control: social observatories and their relationship with government agencies

Abstract:Through the development of a proposal to categorize accountability into four stages - classical, cross-sectional, systemic, and diffused -, this article aims to identify characteristics of co-production of information and socio-political control of public administration in the work of Brazilian social observatories in relationship with government control agencies. The study analyses data from 20 social observatories and, particularly, three experiences of co-production of information and control, based on a systemic perspective on accountability and a model with four categories: Political and cultural; valuing; systemic-organizational, and production. The conclusions summarize characteristics of these practices, specific phases in the accountability processes, as well as the potentialities and challenges of co-production of information and control, which not only influences, but it is also influenced by the accountability system.

Simulating maize phenology as a function of air temperature with a linear and a nonlinear model

The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

Description of epidemics of coffee rust with neural networks

The objective of this paper was to evaluate the potential of neural networks (NN) as an alternative method to the basic epidemiological approach to describe epidemics of coffee rust. The NN was developed from the intensities of coffee (Coffea arabica) rust along with the climatic variables collected in Lavras-MG between 13 February 1998 and 20 April 2001. The NN was built with climatic variables that were either selected in a stepwise regression analysis or by the Braincel® system, software for NN building. Fifty-nine networks and 26 regression models were tested. The best models were selected based on small values of the mean square deviation (MSD) and of the mean prediction error (MPE). For the regression models, the highest coefficients of determination (R²) were used. The best model developed with neural networks had an MSD of 4.36 and an MPE of 2.43%. This model used the variables of minimum temperature, production, relative humidity of the air, and irradiance 30 days before the evaluation of disease. The best regression model was developed from 29 selected climatic variables in the network. The summary statistics for this model were: MPE=6.58%, MSE=4.36, and R²=0.80. The elaborated neural networks from a time series also were evaluated to describe the epidemic. The incidence of coffee rust at four previous fortnights resulted in a model with MPE=4.72% and an MSD=3.95.

Evidence for eosinophil recruitment, leukotriene B4 production and mast cell hyperplasia following Toxocara canis infection in rats

It is well known that eosinophilia is a key pathogenetic component of toxocariasis. The objective of the present study was to determine if there is an association between peritoneal and blood eosinophil influx, mast cell hyperplasia and leukotriene B4 (LTB4) production after Toxocara canis infection. Oral inoculation of 56-day-old Wistar rats (N = 5-7 per group) with 1000 embryonated eggs containing third-stage (L3) T. canis larvae led to a robust accumulation of total leukocytes in blood beginning on day 3 and peaking on day 18, mainly characterized by eosinophils and accompanied by higher serum LTB4 levels. At that time, we also noted increased eosinophil numbers in the peritoneal cavity. In addition, we observed increased peritoneal mast cell number in the peritoneal cavity, which correlated with the time course of eosinophilia during toxocariasis. We also demonstrated that mast cell hyperplasia in the intestines and lungs began soon after the T. canis larvae migrated to these compartments, reaching maximal levels on day 24, which correlated with the complete elimination of the parasite. Therefore, mast cells appear to be involved in peritoneal and blood eosinophil infiltration through an LTB4-dependent mechanism following T. canis infection in rats. Our data also demonstrate a tight association between larval migratory stages and intestinal and pulmonary mast cell hyperplasia in the toxocariasis model.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Left Atrial Volume Determinants in Patients with Non-Ischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background:Left atrial volume (LAV) is a predictor of prognosis in patients with heart failure.Objective:We aimed to evaluate the determinants of LAV in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).Methods:Ninety patients with DCM and left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction ≤ 0.50 were included. LAV was measured with real-time three-dimensional echocardiography (eco3D). The variables evaluated were heart rate, systolic blood pressure, LV end-diastolic volume and end-systolic volume and ejection fraction (eco3D), mitral inflow E wave, tissue Doppler e´ wave, E/e´ ratio, intraventricular dyssynchrony, 3D dyssynchrony index and mitral regurgitation vena contracta. Pearson´s coefficient was used to identify the correlation of the LAV with the assessed variables. A multiple linear regression model was developed that included LAV as the dependent variable and the variables correlated with it as the predictive variables.Results:Mean age was 52 ± 11 years-old, LV ejection fraction: 31.5 ± 8.0% (16-50%) and LAV: 39.2±15.7 ml/m2. The variables that correlated with the LAV were LV end-diastolic volume (r = 0.38; p < 0.01), LV end-systolic volume (r = 0.43; p < 0.001), LV ejection fraction (r = -0.36; p < 0.01), E wave (r = 0.50; p < 0.01), E/e´ ratio (r = 0.51; p < 0.01) and mitral regurgitation (r = 0.53; p < 0.01). A multivariate analysis identified the E/e´ ratio (p = 0.02) and mitral regurgitation (p = 0.02) as the only independent variables associated with LAV increase.Conclusion:The LAV is independently determined by LV filling pressures (E/e´ ratio) and mitral regurgitation in DCM.

Defective production of interleukin 2 in patients with Chagas' disease: purified IL-2 augments in vitro response in patients with chagasic cardiomyopathy

The production of interleukin 2 (IL-2) by peripheral blood mononuclear cells, from patients with different clinical forms of Chagas disease and healthy controls, was evaluated after stimulation with Trypanosoma cruzi antigen, PPD and PHA. PHA induced higher production of IL-2 in infected patients than healthy controls. No diferences were found between infected groups. With PPD the trend was similar, the only difference was that asymptomatic infected patients (INF) showed higher levels of IL-2 production than patients with cardiomyopathy (CDM). With T. cruzi antigen, most patients showed little or no IL-2 production at 24 hr, a peak at 48 hr and an abrupt fall at 72 hr. A similar pattern of IL- 2 production was observed in INF and CDM. To evaluate the physiologic relevance of the deficit in IL-2 production, we studied the effect of non-mitogenic concentratios of IL-2 in the proliferative response to specific antigens. The addition of IL-2 only enhanced the proliferative response of CDM patients. These observations suggest that patients suffering Chagas' disease, particularly CDM, have a significant reduction in the capacity to produce IL-2. These findings could be of importance in the pathogenesis of Chagas' disease.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.

Probing the (empirical) quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum) shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-)quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u) was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z) shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z) ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

Isolation of microorganisms of cheese whey with lipolytic activity for removal of COD

The aim of this study was to isolate microorganisms that produce lipase and to assess the efficiency of COD removal intreatment of cheese whey under different operating conditions. The microorganisms were isolated from cheese whey and a commercial product; it was selectedthreemicroorganisms that obtained the best response to the lipolytic activity test through the enzyme index. Then, the microorganisms were inoculated in sterilized cheese whey samples, for two pH values (6.2 and 7.0), incubated at 35 °C and 150 rpm in shaker and the lipolityc activity and the efficiency of COD removal were measured in two time periods (24 and 48h). After incubation, it was observed that the treatments showed a good removal efficiency of COD for the pre-treatment and the isolated microorganism (S1) from the cheese whey showed the highest lipase production. Regarding the pH and time variables, there was not significant effect between the two evaluated factors. Among all treatments, T2 (S1, pH 7.0 and 24h) obtained more enzyme production (4.87 U mL-1).

Factors associated with fragility fractures in women over 50 years of age: a population-based household survey

PURPOSE: To analyze the prevalence of and factors associated with fragility fractures in Brazilian women aged 50 years and older. METHODS: This cross-sectional population survey, conducted between May 10 and October 31, 2011, included 622 women aged >50 years living in a city in southeastern Brazil. A questionnaire was administered to each woman by a trained interviewer. The associations between the occurrence of a fragility fracture after age 50 years and sociodemographic data, health-related habits and problems, self-perception of health and evaluation of functional capacity were determined by the χ2 test and Poisson regression using the backward selection criteria. RESULTS: The mean age of the 622 women was 64.1 years. The prevalence of fragility fractures was 10.8%, with 1.8% reporting hip fracture. In the final statistical model, a longer time since menopause (PR 1.03; 95%CI 1.01-1.05; p<0.01) and osteoporosis (PR 1.97; 95%CI 1.27-3.08; p<0.01) were associated with a higher prevalence of fractures. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may provide a better understanding of the risk factors associated with fragility fractures in Brazilian women and emphasize the importance of performing bone densitometry.