Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

The soil CO2 emission has high spatial variability because it depends strongly on soil properties. The purpose of this study was to (i) characterize the spatial variability of soil respiration and related properties, (ii) evaluate the accuracy of results of the ordinary kriging method and sequential Gaussian simulation, and (iii) evaluate the uncertainty in predicting the spatial variability of soil CO2 emission and other properties using sequential Gaussian simulations. The study was conducted in a sugarcane area, using a regular sampling grid with 141 points, where soil CO2 emission, soil temperature, air-filled pore space, soil organic matter and soil bulk density were evaluated. All variables showed spatial dependence structure. The soil CO2 emission was positively correlated with organic matter (r = 0.25, p < 0.05) and air-filled pore space (r = 0.27, p < 0.01) and negatively with soil bulk density (r = -0.41, p < 0.01). However, when the estimated spatial values were considered, the air-filled pore space was the variable mainly responsible for the spatial characteristics of soil respiration, with a correlation of 0.26 (p < 0.01). For all variables, individual simulations represented the cumulative distribution functions and variograms better than ordinary kriging and E-type estimates. The greatest uncertainties in predicting soil CO2 emission were associated with areas with the highest estimated values, which produced estimates from 0.18 to 1.85 t CO2 ha-1, according to the different scenarios considered. The knowledge of the uncertainties generated by the different scenarios can be used in inventories of greenhouse gases, to provide conservative estimates of the potential emission of these gases.

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.

Termodinâmica estatística de líquidos com o método de Monte Carlo. II. O líquido clorofórmio

Thermodynamic properties and radial distribution functions for liquid chloroform were calculated using the Monte Carlo method implemented with Metropolis algorithm in the NpT ensemble at 298 K and 1 atm. A five site model was developed to represent the chloroform molecules. A force field composed by Lennard-Jones and Coulomb potential functions was used to calculate the intermolecular energy. The partial charges needed to represent the Coulombic interactions were obtained from quantum chemical ab initio calculations. The Lennard-Jones parameters were adjusted to reproduce experimental values for density and enthalpy of vaporization for pure liquid. All thermodynamic results are in excelent agreement with experimental data. The correlation functions calculated are in good accordance with theoretical results avaliable in the literature. The free energy for solvating one chloroform molecule into its own liquid at 298 K and 1 atm was computed as an additional test of the potential model. The result obtained compares well with the experimental value. The medium effects on cis/trans convertion of a hypotetical solute in water TIP4P and chloroform solvents were also accomplished. The results obtained from this investigation are in agreement with estimates of the continuous theory of solvation.

Distribution of QPY and RAH haplotypes of granzyme B gene in distinct Brazilian populations

INTRODUCTION: The cytolysis mediated by granules is one of the most important effector functions of cytotoxic T lymphocytes and natural killer cells. Recently, three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified at exons 2, 3, and 5 of the granzyme B gene, resulting in a haplotype in which three amino acids of mature protein Q48P88Y245 are changed to R48A88H245, which leads to loss of cytotoxic activity of the protein. In this study, we evaluated the frequency of these polymorphisms in Brazilian populations. METHODS: We evaluated the frequency of these polymorphisms in Brazilian ethnic groups (white, Afro-Brazilian, and Asian) by sequencing these regions. RESULTS: The allelic and genotypic frequencies of SNP 2364A/G at exon 2 in Afro-Brazilian individuals (42.3% and 17.3%) were significantly higher when compared with those in whites and Asians (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0007, respectively). The polymorphisms 2933C/G and 4243C/T also were more frequent in Afro-Brazilians but without any significant difference regarding the other groups. The Afro-Brazilian group presented greater diversity of haplotypes, and the RAH haplotype seemed to be more frequent in this group (25%), followed by the whites (20.7%) and by the Asians (11.9%), similar to the frequency presented in the literature. CONCLUSIONS: There is a higher frequency of polymorphisms in Afro-Brazilians, and the RAH haplotype was more frequent in these individuals. We believe that further studies should aim to investigate the correlation of this haplotype with diseases related to immunity mediated by cytotoxic lymphocytes, and if this correlation is confirmed, novel treatment strategies might be elaborated.

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Structure and distribution of glandular trichomes in three species of Bignoniaceae

Glandular trichomes play a major role in the morphological characterization of the Bignoniaceae. Due to their great diversity of forms and functions, this study aimed to inventory the glandular trichomes present in the aerial vegetative axis of Amphilophium magnoliifolium, Martinella obovata and Stizophyllum riparium, analyze their structure and register the participation of ants in these plants. Fresh samples from the nodal region, petiole and from medium to apical regions of the leaflet blade were fixed and processed according to usual methods in light and scanning electron microscopies. The glandular trichomes found were: peltate, capitate, stipitate, and patelliform/cupular. Peltate trichomes are the most abundant ones and present the most uniform distribution. Patelliform/cupular trichomes occur at specific regions, such as prophylls, leaflet blade and nodal regions. Martinella obovata is the only species that presents capitate and stipitate trichomes, which are widely distributed along the entire aerial vegetative axis. Ants were found in all species, mainly at nodal regions. The occurrence of the capitate-type trichome is reported for the first time to the genus.

The distribution pattern of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the peridomiciles of a sector with canine and human visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the municipality of Dracena, São Paulo, Brazil

The specimen distribution pattern of a species can be used to characterise a population of interest and also provides area-specific guidance for pest management and control. In the municipality of Dracena, in the state of São Paulo, we analysed 5,889 Lutzomyia longipalpis specimens collected from the peridomiciles of 14 houses in a sector where American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) is transmitted to humans and dogs. The goal was to analyse the dispersion and a theoretical fitting of the species occurrence probability. From January-December 2005, samples were collected once per week using CDC light traps that operated for 12-h periods. Each collection was considered a sub-sample and was evaluated monthly. The standardised Morisita index was used as a measure of dispersion. Adherence tests were performed for the log-series distribution. The number of traps was used to adjust the octave plots. The quantity of Lu. longipalpis in the sector was highly aggregated for each month of the year, adhering to a log-series distribution for 11 of the 12 months analysed. A sex-stratified analysis demonstrated a pattern of aggregated dispersion adjusted for each month of the year. The classes and frequencies of the traps in octaves can be employed as indicators for entomological surveillance and AVL control.

Pedotransfer functions related to spatial variability of water retention attributes for lowland soils

The estimation of non available soil variables through the knowledge of other related measured variables can be achieved through pedotransfer functions (PTF) mainly saving time and reducing cost. Great differences among soils, however, can yield non desirable results when applying this method. This study discusses the application of developed PTFs by several authors using a variety of soils of different characteristics, to evaluate soil water contents of two Brazilian lowland soils. Comparisons are made between PTF evaluated data and field measured data, using statistical and geostatistical tools, like mean error, root mean square error, semivariogram, cross-validation, and regression coefficient. The eight tested PTFs to evaluate gravimetric soil water contents (Ug) at the tensions of 33 kPa and 1,500 kPa presented a tendency to overestimate Ug 33 kPa and underestimate Ug1,500 kPa. The PTFs were ranked according to their performance and also with respect to their potential in describing the structure of the spatial variability of the set of measured values. Although none of the PTFs have changed the distribution pattern of the data, all resulted in mean and variance statistically different from those observed for all measured values. The PTFs that presented the best predictive values of Ug33 kPa and Ug1,500 kPa were not the same that had the best performance to reproduce the structure of spatial variability of these variables.

Pedotransfer functions to estimate water retention parameters of soils in northeastern Brazil

Pedotransfer functions (PTF) were developed to estimate the parameters (α, n, θr and θs) of the van Genuchten model (1980) to describe soil water retention curves. The data came from various sources, mainly from studies conducted by universities in Northeast Brazil, by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and by a corporation for the development of the São Francisco and Parnaíba river basins (Codevasf), totaling 786 retention curves, which were divided into two data sets: 85 % for the development of PTFs, and 15 % for testing and validation, considered independent data. Aside from the development of general PTFs for all soils together, specific PTFs were developed for the soil classes Ultisols, Oxisols, Entisols, and Alfisols by multiple regression techniques, using a stepwise procedure (forward and backward) to select the best predictors. Two types of PTFs were developed: the first included all predictors (soil density, proportions of sand, silt, clay, and organic matter), and the second only the proportions of sand, silt and clay. The evaluation of adequacy of the PTFs was based on the correlation coefficient (R) and Willmott index (d). To evaluate the PTF for the moisture content at specific pressure heads, we used the root mean square error (RMSE). The PTF-predicted retention curve is relatively poor, except for the residual water content. The inclusion of organic matter as a PTF predictor improved the prediction of parameter a of van Genuchten. The performance of soil-class-specific PTFs was not better than of the general PTF. Except for the water content of saturated soil estimated by particle size distribution, the tested models for water content prediction at specific pressure heads proved satisfactory. Predictions of water content at pressure heads more negative than -0.6 m, using a PTF considering particle size distribution, are only slightly lower than those obtained by PTFs including bulk density and organic matter content.

Pedotransfer functions to estimate retention and availability of water in soils of the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil

Studies on water retention and availability are scarce for subtropical or humid temperate climate regions of the southern hemisphere. The aims of this study were to evaluate the relations of the soil physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties with water retention and availability for the generation and validation of continuous point pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for soils of the State of Santa Catarina (SC) in the South of Brazil. Horizons of 44 profiles were sampled in areas under different cover crops and regions of SC, to determine: field capacity (FC, 10 kPa), permanent wilting point (PWP, 1,500 kPa), available water content (AW, by difference), saturated hydraulic conductivity, bulk density, aggregate stability, particle size distribution (seven classes), organic matter content, and particle density. Chemical and mineralogical properties were obtained from the literature. Spearman's rank correlation analysis and path analysis were used in the statistical analyses. The point PTFs for estimation of FC, PWP and AW were generated for the soil surface and subsurface through multiple regression analysis, followed by robust regression analysis, using two sets of predictive variables. Soils with finer texture and/or greater organic matter content retain more moisture, and organic matter is the property that mainly controls the water availability to plants in soil surface horizons. Path analysis was useful in understanding the relationships between soil properties for FC, PWP and AW. The predictive power of the generated PTFs to estimate FC and PWP was good for all horizons, while AW was best estimated by more complex models with better prediction for the surface horizons of soils in Santa Catarina.

Ecological distribution of stream macroalgae in different spatial scales using taxonomic and morphological groups

We examined the ecological distribution of macroalgal communities in streams using species groups (taxonomic units = algal phyla, and morphological = morphological types) with similar structures and functions instead of the species themselves. The study was conducted from June to July/2007 in two drainage basins located in mid-southern region of Paraná State , Brazil. Evaluations of macroalgal communities took into consideration the following spatial scales: the drainage basin (the Pedras river and Marrecas river basins), shading regime (open and shaded stream segments), mesohabitats (riffles and pools), and microhabitats (sampling units of 0.05m2). A total of 29 taxa (23 subgeneric, one generic, and five vegetative groups) were identified. On these, 12 taxa belong to Chlorophyta, 11 to Cyanobacteria, four to Heterokontophyta, and two to Rhodophyta. The proportions of morphological types were: 24% free filaments, 17.25% mats, tufts, gelatinous colonies, and gelatinous filaments, 7% crusts. In terms of spatial scales, we observed a predominance of Chlorophyta in open stream segments and Cyanobacteria in shaded stream segments, reflecting the loss of competitive advantage of green algae in sites with low energy availability. In the mesohabitats, the morphological types recorded in pools were predominantly poorly adapted to fast currents (free filaments), while those found in riffles (mats, tufts and gelatinous filaments) were highly resistant to fast water flows. As such, the use of species groupings based on algal taxonomy associated with morphological characteristics proved to be useful to understanding the distributions of these organisms in lotic environments.

Heparan sulfates and heparins: similar compounds performing the same functions in vertebrates and invertebrates?

The distribution and structure of heparan sulfate and heparin are briefly reviewed. Heparan sulfate is a ubiquitous compound of animal cells whose structure has been maintained throughout evolution, showing an enormous variability regarding the relative amounts of its disaccharide units. Heparin, on the other hand, is present only in a few tissues and species of the animal kingdom and in the form of granules inside organelles in the cytoplasm of special cells. Thus, the distribution as well as the main structural features of the molecule, including its main disaccharide unit, have been maintained through evolution. These and other studies led to the proposal that heparan sulfate may be involved in the cell-cell recognition phenomena and control of cell growth, whereas heparin may be involved in defense mechanisms against bacteria and other foreign materials. All indications obtained thus far suggest that these molecules perform the same functions in vertebrates and invertebrates.

Relationships between dendritic morphology, spatial distribution and firing patterns in rat layer 1 neurons

The cortical layer 1 contains mainly small interneurons, which have traditionally been classified according to their axonal morphology. The dendritic morphology of these cells, however, has received little attention and remains ill defined. Very little is known about how the dendritic morphology and spatial distribution of these cells may relate to functional neuronal properties. We used biocytin labeling and whole cell patch clamp recordings, associated with digital reconstruction and quantitative morphological analysis, to assess correlations between dendritic morphology, spatial distribution and membrane properties of rat layer 1 neurons. A total of 106 cells were recorded, labeled and subjected to morphological analysis. Based on the quantitative patterns of their dendritic arbor, cells were divided into four major morphotypes: horizontal, radial, ascendant, and descendant cells. Descendant cells exhibited a highly distinct spatial distribution in relation to other morphotypes, suggesting that they may have a distinct function in these cortical circuits. A significant difference was also found in the distribution of firing patterns between each morphotype and between the neuronal populations of each sublayer. Passive membrane properties were, however, statistically homogeneous among all subgroups. We speculate that the differences observed in active membrane properties might be related to differences in the synaptic input of specific types of afferent fibers and to differences in the computational roles of each morphotype in layer 1 circuits. Our findings provide new insights into dendritic morphology and neuronal spatial distribution in layer 1 circuits, indicating that variations in these properties may be correlated with distinct physiological functions.

The political role of the State in Cambridge theories of growth and distribution

In this paper we extend Kaldor’s Neo-Pasinetti theorem to the scope of budgetary interventions based on political orientations. First, we take into account a system of taxes and expenditures. Second, we introduce different reaction functions for public spending showing the political role of the State in Cambridge theory of distribution. It turns out that the validity of Kaldorian results depends on the political orientation adopted by government, which diminishes the range of application of the Neo-Pasinetti theorem.