Assessing the performance of macroinvertebrate metrics in the Challhuaco-Ñireco System (Northern Patagonia, Argentina)

ABSTRACT Seven sites were examined in the Challhuaco-Ñireco system, located in the reserve of the Nahuel Huapi National Park, however part of the catchment is urbanized, being San Carlos de Bariloche (150,000 inhabitants) placed in the lower part of the basin. Physico-chemical variables were measured and benthic macroinvertebrates were collected during three consecutive years at seven sites from the headwater to the river outlet. Sites near the source of the river were characterised by Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera and Diptera, whereas sites close to the river mouth were dominated by Diptera, Oligochaeta and Mollusca. Regarding functional feeding groups, collector-gatherers were dominant at all sites and this pattern was consistent among years. Ordination Analysis (RDA) revealed that species assemblages distribution responded to the climatic and topographic gradient (temperature and elevation), but also were associated with variables related to human impact (conductivity, nitrate and phosphate contents). Species assemblages at headwaters were mostly represented by sensitive insects, whereas tolerant taxa such as Tubificidae, Lumbriculidae, Chironomidae and crustacean Aegla sp. were dominant at urbanised sites. Regarding macroinvertebrate metrics employed, total richness, EPT taxa, Shannon diversity index and Biotic Monitoring Patagonian Stream index resulted fairly consistent and evidenced different levels of disturbances at the stream, meaning that this measures are suitable for evaluation of the status of Patagonian mountain streams.

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Solitary pulmonary nodule and 18F-FDG PET/CT. Part 1: epidemiology, morphological evaluation and cancer probability

Abstract Solitary pulmonary nodule corresponds to a common radiographic finding, which is frequently detected incidentally. The investigation of this entity remains complex, since characteristics of benign and malignant processes overlap in the differential diagnosis. Currently, many strategies are available to evaluate solitary pulmonary nodules with the main objective of characterizing benign lesions as best as possible, while avoiding to expose patients to the risks inherent to invasive methods, besides correctly detecting cases of lung cancer so as the potential curative treatment is not delayed. This first part of the study focuses on the epidemiology, the morfological evaluation and the methods to determine the likelihood of cancer in cases of indeterminate solitary pulmonary nodule.

The modulation of simple reaction time by the spatial probability of a visual stimulus

Simple reaction time (SRT) in response to visual stimuli can be influenced by many stimulus features. The speed and accuracy with which observers respond to a visual stimulus may be improved by prior knowledge about the stimulus location, which can be obtained by manipulating the spatial probability of the stimulus. However, when higher spatial probability is achieved by holding constant the stimulus location throughout successive trials, the resulting improvement in performance can also be due to local sensory facilitation caused by the recurrent spatial location of a visual target (position priming). The main objective of the present investigation was to quantitatively evaluate the modulation of SRT by the spatial probability structure of a visual stimulus. In two experiments the volunteers had to respond as quickly as possible to the visual target presented on a computer screen by pressing an optic key with the index finger of the dominant hand. Experiment 1 (N = 14) investigated how SRT changed as a function of both the different levels of spatial probability and the subject's explicit knowledge about the precise probability structure of visual stimulation. We found a gradual decrease in SRT with increasing spatial probability of a visual target regardless of the observer's previous knowledge concerning the spatial probability of the stimulus. Error rates, below 2%, were independent of the spatial probability structure of the visual stimulus, suggesting the absence of a speed-accuracy trade-off. Experiment 2 (N = 12) examined whether changes in SRT in response to a spatially recurrent visual target might be accounted for simply by sensory and temporally local facilitation. The findings indicated that the decrease in SRT brought about by a spatially recurrent target was associated with its spatial predictability, and could not be accounted for solely in terms of sensory priming.

Synaptic vesicle pool size, release probability and synaptic depression are sensitive to Ca2+ buffering capacity in the developing rat calyx of Held

The calyx of Held, a specialized synaptic terminal in the medial nucleus of the trapezoid body, undergoes a series of changes during postnatal development that prepares this synapse for reliable high frequency firing. These changes reduce short-term synaptic depression during tetanic stimulation and thereby prevent action potential failures during a stimulus train. We measured presynaptic membrane capacitance changes in calyces from young postnatal day 5-7 (p5-7) or older (p10-12) rat pups to examine the effect of calcium buffer capacity on vesicle pool size and the efficiency of exocytosis. Vesicle pool size was sensitive to the choice and concentration of exogenous Ca2+ buffer, and this sensitivity was much stronger in younger animals. Pool size and exocytosis efficiency in p5-7 calyces were depressed by 0.2 mM EGTA to a greater extent than with 0.05 mM BAPTA, even though BAPTA is a 100-fold faster Ca2+ buffer. However, this was not the case for p10-12 calyces. With 5 mM EGTA, exocytosis efficiency was reduced to a much larger extent in young calyces compared to older calyces. Depression of exocytosis using pairs of 10-ms depolarizations was reduced by 0.2 mM EGTA compared to 0.05 mM BAPTA to a similar extent in both age groups. These results indicate a developmentally regulated heterogeneity in the sensitivity of different vesicle pools to Ca2+ buffer capacity. We propose that, during development, a population of vesicles that are tightly coupled to Ca2+ channels expands at the expense of vesicles more distant from Ca2+ channels.

Economic sanctions and human rights: an analysis of competing enforcement strategies in Latin America

This article addresses the consequences of economic sanctions for the protection of human rights in Latin America. The literature on sanctions and compliance informs three hypotheses, which investigate the relationship between sanctions and the level of rights protection in two groups of countries: those that were targeted by sanctions and those that were not. Using data from the Political Terror Scale (PTS) and from Freedom House, I find empirical evidence that sanctions do improve the level of protection in countries that were not targeted. This finding can be explained by the deterrent effect attributed to sanctions by the compliance literature, broadly interpreted. The presence of economic sanctions in a given year increases the probability of observing better human rights practices by almost 50%. These results hold for the 12 Latin American countries that were not subject to economic sanctions for the period 1976-2004.

Negociação com informação privilegiada e retorno das ações na BM&FBOVESPA

No Brasil, conforme a Lei nº 10.303/2001, o uso indevido de informação privilegiada no mercado acionário é crime. Contudo, na literatura, é possível encontrar estudos que apontam a existência de negociações com informação privilegiada nesse mercado (BOPP, 2003; BARBEDO, SILVA, LEAL, 2009). Por isso, este estudo tem o objetivo de investigar a probabilidade de negociação com informação privilegiada (PIN) na negociação de ações na BM&FBOVESPA, buscando identificar sua relação com o retorno dessas ações. Com base nas Teorias dos Mercados Eficientes e da Agência, foram analisadas 198 ações durante o ano de 2011. Por meio do modelo de mensuração de assimetria de informação de Easley, Hvidkjaer e O'Hara (2002), a PIN foi estimada e relacionada ao retorno das ações por meio do modelo de Fama e MacBeth (1973) ajustado. Os resultados indicam que há 22,9% de probabilidade de terem ocorrido negociações com informação privilegiada, que os segmentos com maiores exigências de governança reúnem as ações com menor assimetria e que um aumento de 10,0% na PIN leva a um aumento de 8,0% no retorno das ações.

DISPOSITION EFFECT AMONG BRAZILIAN EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

Reelection incentives and political budget cycle: evidence from Brazil

This article tests the presence of political budget cycle (PBC) in municipal elections in Brazil and checks whether mayors who adopt such policy have greater probability of reelection. Based on fiscal and electoral data of 5,406 Brazilian municipalities and applying the difference-in-differences econometric method as well as logistic regressions, the results provide some evidence of PBC in Brazil, although its magnitude and consistency varies depending on the years used as electoral and non-electoral years. On average, reelectable mayors spend close to 3% more in election years than nonreelectables. Moreover, reelectables who do run for reelection present a variation in spending which is close to 5% superior to that of non-reelectables and non-runners. Additionally, the results suggest that mayors who increase public spending during electoral periods have greater chances of being reelected, as long as such spending is done within deficit limits acceptable by voters.

Assessment and prediction of asthma and its severity in the pediatric community

Seventy four asthmatic children aged 7 to 11 years were examined along with controls matched by age and sex. Clinical and laboratory investigations preceded a 28-day follow-up where data about morning and evening peak expiratory flow rate (PEF), symptoms and treatment were recorded. The coefficient of variation of PEF was found to be an objective measurement of asthma severity that has statistically significant correlation with both symptoms (r s= .36) and treatment (r s= .60). Moreover, it separates mild and severe asthmatics, as confirmed by statistically significant differences (p= .008 or less) in symptoms, treatment, skin allergy and airways response to exercise. Skin allergy and airways responsiveness to exercise were found to be predictors of both disease and severity. By means of logistic regression analysis it was possible to establish the probabilities for both asthma and severe asthma when children presenting and not presenting these characteristics are compared. One single positive skin test represent a probability of 88% for the development of asthma and a probability of 70% for severe disease. A PEF reduction of 10% after an exercise test implies a probability of 73% for disease and a probability of 64% for severe disease. Increases in these variables imply geometrically increased risks and their presence together have a multiplicative effect in the final risk.

Epidemiological methods for research with drug misusers: review of methods for studying prevalence and morbidity

Epidemiological studies of drug misusers have until recently relied on two main forms of sampling: probability and convenience. The former has been used when the aim was simply to estimate the prevalence of the condition and the latter when in depth studies of the characteristics, profiles and behaviour of drug users were required, but each method has its limitations. Probability samples become impracticable when the prevalence of the condition is very low, less than 0.5% for example, or when the condition being studied is a clandestine activity such as illicit drug use. When stratified random samples are used, it may be difficult to obtain a truly representative sample, depending on the quality of the information used to develop the stratification strategy. The main limitation of studies using convenience samples is that the results cannot be generalised to the whole population of drug users due to selection bias and a lack of information concerning the sampling frame. New methods have been developed which aim to overcome some of these difficulties, for example, social network analysis, snowball sampling, capture-recapture techniques, privileged access interviewer method and contact tracing. All these methods have been applied to the study of drug misuse. The various methods are described and examples of their use given, drawn from both the Brazilian and international drug misuse literature.

A theoretical model of the evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

INTRODUCTION: The evolution of virulence in host-parasite relationships has been the subject of several publications. In the case of HIV virulence, some authors suggest that the evolution of HIV virulence correlates with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. In contrast some other authors argue that the level of HIV virulence is independent of the sexual activity of the host population. METHODS: Provide a mathematical model for the study of the potential influence of human sexual behaviour on the evolution of virulence of HIV is provided. RESULTS: The results indicated that, when the probability of acquisition of infection is a function both of the sexual activity and of the virulence level of HIV strains, the evolution of HIV virulence correlates positively with the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that in the case of a host population with a low (high) rate of exchange of sexual partners the evolution of HIV virulence is such that the less (more) virulent strain prevails.

Outpatient health service utilization and associated factors: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that lead people to visit a doctor in Brazil and assess differences between socioeconomic groups. METHODS: A cross-sectional study comprising 1,260 subjects aged 15 or more was carried out in southern Brazil. Demographic, socioeconomic, health needs and regular source of care data were analyzed concerning visits to a doctor within two months from the interview. Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Adjusted PR showed that women having stressful life events, health insurance, and a regular doctor increased the outcome. A dose-related response was found with self-reported health, and the probability of visiting a doctor increased with health needs. Analysis in the chronic disease group revealed that uneducated lower income subjects had a 62% reduction in the chance of visiting a doctor compared to uneducated higher income ones. However, as it was seen a significant interaction between income and education, years of schooling increased utilization in this group. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the existence of health inequity in the poorest group that could be overcome with education. Specific measures reinforcing the importance of having a regular doctor may also improve access in the underserved group.

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing during prenatal care in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.

Pediculus capitis infestation according to sex and social factors in Argentina

OBJECTIVE: To determine the intensity of Pediculus capitis infestation (abundance) among Argentinean schoolchildren. Children's sex and social stratum were analyzed as modifiers of the general prevalence and degree of parasitism. METHODS: The study included 1,370 schoolchildren (692 girls, 678 boys) from 26 schools of the province of La Rioja (21 public schools, five private schools). Classic prevalence was obtained as the percentage of children with nits and/or lice. Moreover, five degrees of parasitism were classified: 0) children with no signs of pediculosis; 0+) children with evidence of past infestation; 1) children with a recent infestation and low probability of active parasitism; 2) children with a recent infestation and high probability of active parasitism; 3) children with mobile lice (active pediculosis). RESULTS: The general prevalence was 61.4% (girls: 79%; boys: 44%, p<0.001). Private schools showed lower prevalence than public schools (p=0.02), especially due to the low prevalence in boys. Fifty percent of children were classified in classes 0 and 0+, 22% in class 1; and 28% in grades 2 and 3. The proportion of children in grade 3 was higher in public schools than in private schools. There were significant sexual differences in the intensity of parasitism for grades 2 and 3, where girls' rates exceeded twice those of boys'. CONCLUSIONS: Sex and social stratum are important modifiers of P. capitis general prevalence and degree of infestation. The classification of children by intensity of infestation allowed a more precise delimitation of this condition, which is especially important for disease surveillance and application of control measures.