26 resultados para Probabilistic renewable power forecast

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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O presente trabalho teve por objetivo estudar o modo pelo qual a Constituição brasileira de 1988 disciplina a competência dos poderes constituídos para a celebração de tratados. Buscou-se analisar, dessa forma, o relacionamento dos poderes Legislativo e Executivo no que tange ao procedimento de celebração de tratados internacionais.

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The central goal of this paper is thinking about the Brazilian military power and its linking to the international ambitions of the country in the 21st century. After a comparative analysis to other BRICs and with a historical one about Brazil's strategic irrelevance, we aim to establish what the minimum military capacity Brazil would need in order to meet the country's latest international interests. Similarly, it will be discussed if the National Strategy of Defense, approved in 2008, and the recent strategic agreements signed with France represent one more step toward this minimum military capacity.

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Brazil's rapprochement with Africa during the last decade has been mostly explained as an attempt to improve political dialogue, raise economic interactions, and provide technical cooperation assistance. This article, however, argues that such framework does not sufficiently account for the use of Brazilian material resources in order to attain harder strategic goals towards the continent. By focusing on defense cooperation ties, it highlights an important niche in South-South relations that has also grown exponentially, with important consequences on how Brazil exerts power across the Atlantic.

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This article addresses Baron of Rio Branco's grand strategy and the role played by the naval reorganization program (1904-1910) in this context. The ensuing case study determined the domestic and international constraints that affected the program, as well as the worldview of the patron of Brazilian diplomacy regarding military power's instrumentality to foreign policy.

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Since the 1990s, alongside China's economic growth, the international community has fostered a general anxiety towards a "China threat." In order to relieve itself from suspicion, China adopted the dual strategies of "harmonious worldview" and "good neighbor policy." The strategies led to the use of soft power in China's foreign policy. China aimed to reduce security concerns implied by the threat theory by supporting an image that caters to international peace and development. This article seeks to explain how China achieves its interests in Southeast Asia through the use of soft power. The authors address the concepts of "harmonious worldview" and "good neighbor policy" and how the twin strategies and soft power have shaped China's foreign policy in recent years. This article aims to provide insights into China's policy options in Southeast Asia in the near future.

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As China turns increasingly to the cultivation of soft power in the course of developing its foreign policy, the use of political rhetoric and its explicit and implicit audiences become more and more important, both on a bilateral level and within the international arena at large. Using the case of China's relations with African countries, this article examines key themes within China's diplomatic narrative regarding its role on the African continent and contrasts with Western and African responses.

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This paper analyzes People's Republic of China (PRC) economic and political ascendance in the 21st century focusing on the evolution of the sui generis economic development model and its significances of the evolution of relationship between China and the developing countries in the peripheral "Global South." The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between China and the Global South (Africa and South America) in the 21st century, characterized as a new Center-periphery global network power based on trade and investment that we call as "Asian Consensus."

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

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SUMMARYResearch on Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has centered in the yeast cell probably because of the lack of distinctive features in the mycelium. In 1942 and for the first time, lateral conidia were noticed in the fungus' hyphae. Later on, Brazilian, Venezuelan and Argentinean researchers described "aleurias" when the fungus was grown in natural substrates. In 1970 authors became interested in the conidia and were able to obtain them in large numbers and treat them as individual units. Their shape and size were defined and the presence of all the elements of a competent eukaryotic cell were demonstrated. Conidia exhibited thermal dimorphism and, additionally, when given intranasally to BALB/c male mice, they converted into yeasts in the lungs and produce progressive pulmonary lesions with further dissemination to other organs. Studies on the phagocyte-conidia interaction were revealing and showed that these versatile structures allow a better understanding of the host- P. brasiliensisinteractions.

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The hemolytic power of rattlesnake venom (Crotalus durissus terrificus) was Studied. A high percentage of sample with negative hemolytic power was detected when sheep red blood cells were used. A large number of venoms with hemolytic power, though with a low hemolysis percentage, were detected when liquid, recently extracted venom was used. When crystallized venom was used under the same experimental conditions, a higher percentage ofpositivityfor hemolysis was obtained. When the results obtained on agar plates were compared to those obtained in test tubes, a large number of animals with a higher percentage of hemolysis were detected, though this value was not proportional to the number of animals showing positive plate hemolysis. When the hemolytic power of these venoms was tested on human red blood cells, a large percentage of animals with venoms having a low hemolytic power was also detected. Hemolytic power was much greater when human red blood cells were tested with crystallized venom. The preparation of red blood cells also had an important effect and the use of red blood cells from defibrinated blood is recommended. We conclude that rattlesnake venom has hemolytic power that increases when the venom is crystallized. Red blood cells should be properly preparedfor the lysis reactions. We suggest that the lytic power of the venom is related to venom concentration and to the purity of its fractions.