Probabilistic linkage in household survey on hospital care usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.

Opportunities and constraints in schistosomiasis vaccine development: infection characteristics and industry realities

The notes provided in this article relate to two components of the development of vaccines against schistosomiasis: (1) The characteristics of schistosome infections (eg. features of the schistosome life cycle), and the parasite itself, that have implications for vaccination strategies; (2) The characteristics of the biopharmaceutical industry that have implications for product development. As will be seen, these two topic areas are not vastly disparate.

Compositional Constraints in the Extremely GC-poor Genome of Plasmodium falciparum

We have analyzed the compositional properties of coding (protein encoding) and non-coding sequences of Plasmodium falciparum, a unicellular parasite characterized by an extremely AT-rich genome. GC% levels, base and dinucleotide frequencies were studied. We found that among the various factors that contribute to the properties of the sequences analyzed, the most relevant are the compositional constraints which operate on the whole genome

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

The theory of constraints in manufacturing

In this paper, a systematic and quantitative view is presented for the application of the theory of constraints in manufacturing. This is done employing the operational research technique of mathematical programming. The potential of the theory of constraints in automated manufacturing is demonstrated.

MHC-restricted antigen presentation and recognition: constraints on gene, recombinant and peptide vaccines in humans

The target of any immunization is to activate and expand lymphocyte clones with the desired recognition specificity and the necessary effector functions. In gene, recombinant and peptide vaccines, the immunogen is a single protein or a small assembly of epitopes from antigenic proteins. Since most immune responses against protein and peptide antigens are T-cell dependent, the molecular target of such vaccines is to generate at least 50-100 complexes between MHC molecule and the antigenic peptide per antigen-presenting cell, sensitizing a T cell population of appropriate clonal size and effector characteristics. Thus, the immunobiology of antigen recognition by T cells must be taken into account when designing new generation peptide- or gene-based vaccines. Since T cell recognition is MHC-restricted, and given the wide polymorphism of the different MHC molecules, distinct epitopes may be recognized by different individuals in the population. Therefore, the issue of whether immunization will be effective in inducing a protective immune response, covering the entire target population, becomes an important question. Many pathogens have evolved molecular mechanisms to escape recognition by the immune system by variation of antigenic protein sequences. In this short review, we will discuss the several concepts related to selection of amino acid sequences to be included in DNA and peptide vaccines.

Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.