A comparative analysis of Cobb-Douglas model with additive and multiplicative error

This paper dis cusses the fitting of a Cobb-Doug las response curve Yi = αXβi, with additive error, Yi = αXβi + e i, instead of the usual multiplicative error Yi = αXβi (1 + e i). The estimation of the parameters A and B is discussed. An example is given with use of both types of error.

Probing the (empirical) quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum) shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-)quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u) was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z) shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z) ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

Accountability and co-production of information and control: social observatories and their relationship with government agencies

Abstract:Through the development of a proposal to categorize accountability into four stages - classical, cross-sectional, systemic, and diffused -, this article aims to identify characteristics of co-production of information and socio-political control of public administration in the work of Brazilian social observatories in relationship with government control agencies. The study analyses data from 20 social observatories and, particularly, three experiences of co-production of information and control, based on a systemic perspective on accountability and a model with four categories: Political and cultural; valuing; systemic-organizational, and production. The conclusions summarize characteristics of these practices, specific phases in the accountability processes, as well as the potentialities and challenges of co-production of information and control, which not only influences, but it is also influenced by the accountability system.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

An in vitro model for dengue virus infection that exhibits human monocyte infection, multiple cytokine production and dexamethasone immunomodulation

An important cytokine role in dengue fever pathogenesis has been described. These molecules can be associated with haemorrhagic manifestations, coagulation disorders, hypotension and shock, all symptoms implicated in vascular permeability and disease worsening conditions. Several immunological diseases have been treated by cytokine modulation and dexamethasone is utilized clinically to treat pathologies with inflammatory and autoimmune ethiologies. We established an in vitro model with human monocytes infected by dengue virus-2 for evaluating immunomodulatory and antiviral activities of potential pharmaceutical products. Flow cytometry analysis demonstrated significant dengue antigen detection in target cells two days after infection. TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha, IL-6 and IL-10 are produced by in vitro infected monocytes and are significantly detected in cell culture supernatants by multiplex microbead immunoassay. Dexamethasone action was tested for the first time for its modulation in dengue infection, presenting optimistic results in both decreasing cell infection rates and inhibiting TNF-alpha, IFN-alpha and IL-10 production. This model is proposed for novel drug trials yet to be applyed for dengue fever.

Association of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) population density with climate variables in Montes Claros, an area of American visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

In the present paper, we evaluate the relationship between climate variables and population density of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Montes Claros, an area of active transmission of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Brazil. Entomological captures were performed in 10 selected districts of the city, between September 2002-August 2003. A total of 773 specimens of L. longipalpiswere captured in the period and the population density could be associated with local climate variables (cumulative rainfall, average temperature and relative humidity) through a mathematical linear model with a determination coefficient (Rsqr) of 0.752. Although based on an oversimplified statistical analysis, as far as the vector is concerned, this approach showed to be potentially useful as a starting point to guide control measures for AVL in Montes Claros.

Tissue distribution of residual antimony in rats treated with multiple doses of meglumine antimoniate

Meglumine antimoniate (MA) and sodium stibogluconate are pentavalent antimony (SbV) drugs used since the mid-1940s. Notwithstanding the fact that they are first-choice drugs for the treatment of leishmaniases, there are gaps in our knowledge of their toxicological profile, mode of action and kinetics. Little is known about the distribution of antimony in tissues after SbV administration. In this study, we evaluated the Sb content of tissues from male rats 24 h and three weeks after a 21-day course of treatment with MA (300 mg SbV/kg body wt/d, subcutaneous). Sb concentrations in the blood and organs were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. In rats, as with in humans, the Sb blood levels after MA dosing can be described by a two-compartment model with a fast (t1/2 = 0.6 h) and a slow (t1/2 >> 24 h) elimination phase. The spleen was the organ that accumulated the highest amount of Sb, while bone and thyroid ranked second in descending order of tissues according to Sb levels (spleen >> bone, thyroid, kidneys > liver, epididymis, lungs, adrenals > prostate > thymus, pancreas, heart, small intestines > skeletal muscle, testes, stomach > brain). The pathophysiological consequences of Sb accumulation in the thyroid and Sb speciation in the liver, thyroid, spleen and bone warrant further studies.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Description of epidemics of coffee rust with neural networks

The objective of this paper was to evaluate the potential of neural networks (NN) as an alternative method to the basic epidemiological approach to describe epidemics of coffee rust. The NN was developed from the intensities of coffee (Coffea arabica) rust along with the climatic variables collected in Lavras-MG between 13 February 1998 and 20 April 2001. The NN was built with climatic variables that were either selected in a stepwise regression analysis or by the Braincel® system, software for NN building. Fifty-nine networks and 26 regression models were tested. The best models were selected based on small values of the mean square deviation (MSD) and of the mean prediction error (MPE). For the regression models, the highest coefficients of determination (R²) were used. The best model developed with neural networks had an MSD of 4.36 and an MPE of 2.43%. This model used the variables of minimum temperature, production, relative humidity of the air, and irradiance 30 days before the evaluation of disease. The best regression model was developed from 29 selected climatic variables in the network. The summary statistics for this model were: MPE=6.58%, MSE=4.36, and R²=0.80. The elaborated neural networks from a time series also were evaluated to describe the epidemic. The incidence of coffee rust at four previous fortnights resulted in a model with MPE=4.72% and an MSD=3.95.

Oxygen consumption of rats with broad intestinal resection

The study was performed to investigate possible alterations in oxygen consumption in an animal model with broad intestinal resection. Oxygen consumption and the thermal effect of a short meal were measured in rats subjected to short bowel syndrome. Four groups of rats were used. Group I was the control group, group II was sham operated, group III was submitted to 80% jejunum-ileum resection, and group IV was submitted to 80% jejunum-ileum resection with colon interposition. Ninety days after surgery, oxygen consumption was measured over a period of 6 h with the animals fasted overnight. The thermal effect of feeding was determined in another session of oxygen consumption measurement in animals fasted for 12 h. A 12-kcal meal was then introduced into the animal chamber and oxygen consumption was measured for a further 4 h. No differences in fasting oxygen consumption or in the thermal effect of the meal were detected among the groups studied. It is concluded that short bowel syndrome does not affect the overall energy expenditure of rats.

Development of new heparin-like compounds and other antithrombotic drugs and their interaction with vascular endothelial cells

The anticlotting and antithrombotic activities of heparin, heparan sulfate, low molecular weight heparins, heparin and heparin-like compounds from various sources used in clinical practice or under development are briefly reviewed. Heparin isolated from shrimp mimics the pharmacological activities of low molecular weight heparins. A heparan sulfate from Artemia franciscana and a dermatan sulfate from tuna fish show a potent heparin cofactor II activity. A heparan sulfate derived from bovine pancreas has a potent antithrombotic activity in an arterial and venous thrombosis model with a negligible activity upon the serine proteases of the coagulation cascade. It is suggested that the antithrombotic activity of heparin and other antithrombotic agents is due at least in part to their action on endothelial cells stimulating the synthesis of an antithrombotic heparan sulfate.

Head-to-head comparison of dipyridamole, dobutamine and pacing stress echocardiography for the detection of myocardial ischemia in an animal model of coronary artery stenosis

To compare the sensitivity of dipyridamole, dobutamine and pacing stress echocardiography for the detection of myocardial ischemia we produced a physiologically significant stenosis in the left circumflex artery of 14 open-chest dogs (range: 50 to 89% reduction in luminal diameter). In each study, dobutamine (5 to 40 µg kg-1 min-1 in 3-min stages) and pacing (20 bpm increments, each 2 min, up to 260 bpm) were performed randomly, and then followed by dipyridamole (up to 0.84 mg/kg over 10 min). The positivity of stress echocardiography tests was quantitatively determined by a significant (P<0.05) reduction of or failure to increase absolute and percent systolic wall thickening in the stenotic artery supplied wall, as compared to the opposite wall (areas related to the left anterior descending artery). Systolic and diastolic frozen images were analyzed off-line by two blinded observers in the control and stress conditions. The results showed that 1) the sensitivity of dobutamine, dipyridamole and pacing stress tests was 57, 57 and 36%, respectively; 2) in animals with positive tests, the mean percent change of wall thickening in left ventricular ischemic segments was larger in the pacing (-19 ± 11%) and dipyridamole (-18 ± 16%) tests as compared to dobutamine (-9 ± 6%) (P = 0.05), but a similar mean reduction of wall thickening was observed when this variable was normalized to a control left ventricular segment (area related to the left anterior descending artery) (pacing: -16 ± 7%; dipyridamole: -25 ± 16%; dobutamine: -26 ± 10%; not significant), and 3) a significant correlation was observed between magnitude of coronary stenosis and left ventricular segmental dysfunction induced by ischemia in dogs submitted to positive stress tests. We conclude that the dobutamine and dipyridamole stress tests showed identical sensitivities for the detection of myocardial ischemia in this one-vessel disease animal model with a wide range of left circumflex artery stenosis. The pacing stress test was less sensitive, but the difference was not statistically significant. The magnitude of segmental left ventricular dysfunction induced by ischemia was similar in all stress tests evaluated.

Histopathological characteristics of a novel knock-in mouse prostate cancer model

Prostate cancer is relatively unique to man. There is no naturally occurring prostate cancer in the mouse. Pre-clinical studies involve the establishment of a genetically engineered mouse prostate cancer model with features close to those of the human situation. A new knock-in mouse adenocarcinoma prostate (KIMAP) model was established, which showed close-to-human kinetics of tumor development. In order to determine if the similar kinetics is associated with heterogeneous tumor architecture similar to the human situation, we utilized a new mouse histological grading system (Gleason analogous grading system) similar to the Gleason human grading system and flow cytometry DNA analysis to measure and compare the adenocarcinoma of the KIMAP model with human prostate cancer. Sixty KIMAP prostate cancer samples from 60 mice were measured and compared with human prostate cancer. Flow cytometry DNA analysis was performed on malignant prostate tissues obtained from KIMAP models. Mice with prostate cancer from KIMAP models showed a 53.3% compound histological score rate, which was close to the human clinical average (50%) and showed a significant correlation with age (P = 0.001). Flow cytometry analyses demonstrated that most KIMAP tumor tissues were diploid, analogous to the human situation. The similarities of the KIMAP mouse model with tumors of the human prostate suggest the use of this experimental model to complement studies of human prostate cancer.

A new model for the population pharmacokinetics of didanosine in healthy subjects

Didanosine (ddI) is a component of highly active antiretroviral therapy drug combinations, used especially in resource-limited settings and in zidovudine-resistant patients. The population pharmacokinetics of ddI was evaluated in 48 healthy volunteers enrolled in two bioequivalence studies. These data, along with a set of co-variates, were the subject of a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling analysis using the NONMEM program. A two-compartment model with first order absorption (ADVAN3 TRANS3) was fitted to the serum ddI concentration data. Final pharmacokinetic parameters, expressed as functions of the co-variates gender and creatinine clearance (CL CR), were: oral clearance (CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR + 16.6 L/h for males and CL = 55.1 + 240 x CL CR for females), central volume (V2 = 9.8 L), intercompartmental clearance (Q = 40.9 L/h), peripheral volume (V3 = 62.7 + 22.9 L for males and V3 = 62.7 L for females), absorption rate constant (Ka = 1.51/h), and dissolution time of the tablet (D = 0.43 h). The intraindividual (residual) variability expressed as coefficient of variation was 13.0%, whereas the interindividual variability of CL, Q, V3, Ka, and D was 20.1, 75.8, 20.6, 18.9, and 38.2%, respectively. The relatively high (>30%) interindividual variability for some of these parameters, observed under the controlled experimental settings of bioequivalence trials in healthy volunteers, may result from genetic variability of the processes involved in ddI absorption and disposition.

Rabbit model of uncontrolled hemorrhagic shock and hypotensive resuscitation

Clinically relevant animal models capable of simulating traumatic hemorrhagic shock are needed. We developed a hemorrhagic shock model with male New Zealand rabbits (2200-2800 g, 60-70 days old) that simulates the pre-hospital and acute care of a penetrating trauma victim in an urban scenario using current resuscitation strategies. A laparotomy was performed to reproduce tissue trauma and an aortic injury was created using a standardized single puncture to the left side of the infrarenal aorta to induce hemorrhagic shock similar to a penetrating mechanism. A 15-min interval was used to simulate the arrival of pre-hospital care. Fluid resuscitation was then applied using two regimens: normotensive resuscitation to achieve baseline mean arterial blood pressure (MAP, 10 animals) and hypotensive resuscitation at 60% of baseline MAP (10 animals). Another 10 animals were sham operated. The total time of the experiment was 85 min, reproducing scene, transport and emergency room times. Intra-abdominal blood loss was significantly greater in animals that underwent normotensive resuscitation compared to hypotensive resuscitation (17.1 ± 2.0 vs 8.0 ± 1.5 mL/kg). Antithrombin levels decreased significantly in normotensive resuscitated animals compared to baseline (102 ± 2.0 vs 59 ± 4.1%), sham (95 ± 2.8 vs 59 ± 4.1%), and hypotensive resuscitated animals (98 ± 7.8 vs 59 ± 4.1%). Evidence of re-bleeding was also noted in the normotensive resuscitation group. A hypotensive resuscitation regimen resulted in decreased blood loss in a clinically relevant small animal model capable of reproducing hemorrhagic shock caused by a penetrating mechanism.