13 resultados para Predictability

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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OBJECTIVE: The expansion of precarious employment in OECD countries has been widely associated with negative health and safety effects. Although many shiftworkers are precariously employed, shiftwork research has concentrated on full-time workers in continuing employment. This paper examines the impact of precarious employment on working hours, work-life conflict and health by comparing casual employees to full-time, "permanent" employees working in the same occupations and workplaces. METHODS: Thirty-nine convergent interviews were conducted in two five-star hotels. The participants included 26 full-time and 13 casual (temporary) employees. They ranged in age from 19 to 61 years and included 17 females and 22 males. Working hours ranged from zero to 73 hours per week. RESULTS: Marked differences emerged between the reports of casual and full-time employees about working hours, work-life conflict and health. Casuals were more likely to work highly irregular hours over which they had little control. Their daily and weekly working hours ranged from very long to very short according to organisational requirements. Long working hours, combined with low predictability and control, produced greater disruption to family and social lives and poorer work-life balance for casuals. Uncoordinated hours across multiple jobs exacerbated these problems in some cases. Health-related issues reported to arise from work-life conflict included sleep disturbance, fatigue and disrupted exercise and dietary regimes. CONCLUSIONS:This study identified significant disadvantages of casual employment. In the same hotels, and doing largely the same jobs, casual employees had less desirable and predictable work schedules, greater work-life conflict and more associated health complaints than "permanent" workers.

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INTRODUCTION: Although many countries have improved vaccination coverage in recent years, some, including Guinea-Bissau, failed to meet expected targets. This paper tries to understand the main barriers to better vaccination coverage in the context of the GAVI-Alliance (The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation) cash-based support provided to Guinea-Bissau. METHODS: The analysis is based on a document analysis and a three round Delphi study with a final consensus meeting. RESULTS: Consensus attributed about 25% of the failure to perform better to implementation problems; and about 10% to governance and also 10% to scarce resources. The qualitative analysis validates the importance of implementation issues and upgraded the relevance of the human resources crisis as an important drawback. The recommendations were balanced in their upstream-downstream focus but were blind to health information issues and logistical difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: It is commendable that such a fragile state, with all sorts of barriers, manages to sustain a slow steady growth of its vaccination coverage. Not reaching the targets set reflects the inappropriateness of those targets rather than a lack of commitment of the health workforce. In the unstable context of countries such as Guinea-Bissau, the predictability of the funds from global health initiatives like the GAVI-Alliance seem to make all the difference in achieving small consistent health gains even in the presence of other major bottlenecks.

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The seasonal characteristics of the Cerrado region strongly influence food resource predictability and vegetal tissue nutritional content. The aims of this work were to record the abundance and temporal distribution of Gonioterma exquisita Duckworth, 1964 (Lepidoptera, Elachistidae) and its relation with phenological, physical, and chemical traits of the host plant Byrsonima pachyphylla Griseb. (Malpighiaceae). Four nutritional quality parameters were determined for new and mature leaves: gross protein and nitrogen content, dry matter, and in vitro digestibility. We inspected 200 plants per month, searching for G. exquisita caterpillars. About 35.8% of the 2,400 plants inspected presented caterpillars, with an abundance peak in the wet season. Caterpillar abundance was positively correlated with mature leaf availability, their food resource. Although mature leaves presented lower gross protein and nitrogen contents than new leaves, this difference was small during the abundance peak of G. exquisita.

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Quantification of soil physical quality (SPQ) and pore size distribution (PSD) can assist understanding of how changes in land management practices influence dynamics of soil structure, and this understanding could greatly improve the predictability of soil physical behavior and crop yield. The objectives of this study were to measure the SPQ index under two different land management practices (the continuous arable cropping system and natural bush fallow system), and contrast the effects of these practices on the structure of PSD using soil water retention data. Soil water retention curves obtained from a pressure chamber were fitted to van Genuchten’s equation, setting m (= 1-1/n). Although values for soil bulk density were high, soils under the continuous arable cropping system had good SPQ, and maintained the capacity to support root development. However, soils under the natural bush fallow system had a worse structure than the continuous arable system, with restrictions in available water capacity. These two management systems had different PSDs. Results showed the inferiority of the natural bush fallow system with no traffic restriction (which is the common practice) in relation to the continuous arable cropping system in regard to physical quality and structure.

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Resistance of fourteen Theobroma cacao clones to Phytophthora spp. was evaluated using stem inoculations on grafted seedlings. Concepts of phenotypic stability were used to interpret the results and to express horizontality of the resistance. The linear regression coefficient 'b', the determination coefficient (R²) and average lesion size were used to determine the level of horizontal resistance, the phenotypic stability and the predictability of all clones. The results indicated that clones P 7 and MA 15 present highest levels of horizontal resistance and stability, but with moderate predictability. Clones CAS 1 and CEPEC 13 were classified as those with high horizontal resistance, stability and predictability, while clones PA 30, UF 650 and SIAL 88 and EET 59 showed intermediate resistance and stability and high predictability. Clones SPA 17, OC 61, PA 150, SIAL 505, ICS 1 and R 41 presented high susceptibility and intermediate or low stability and moderate or high predictability.

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The use of hydroxyurea (HU) can improve the clinical course of sickle cell disease. However, several features of HU treatment remain unclear, including the predictability of drug response and determination of adequate doses, considering positive responses and minimal side effects. In order to identify adequate doses of HU for treatment of sickle cell disease, 10 patients, 8 with sickle cell anemia and 2 with Sß thalassemia (8SS, 2Sß), were studied for a period of 6 to 19 months in an open label dose escalation trial (10 to 20 mg kg-1 day-1). Hemoglobin (Hb), fetal hemoglobin (Hb F) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) values and reticulocyte, neutrophil and platelet counts were performed every two weeks during the increase of the HU dose and every 4 weeks when the maximum HU dose was established. Reduction in the number of vasoocclusive episodes was also considered in order to evaluate the efficiency of the treatment. The final Hb and Hb F concentrations, and MCV values were significantly higher than the initial values, while the final reticulocyte and neutrophil counts were significantly lower. There was an improvement in the concentration of Hb (range: 0.7-2.0 g/dl) at 15 mg HU kg-1 day-1, but this concentration did not increase significantly when the HU dose was raised to 20 mg kg-1 day-1. The concentration of Hb F increased significantly (range: 1.0-18.1%) when 15 mg HU was used, and continued to increase when the dose was raised to 20 mg kg-1 day-1. The final MCV values increased 11-28 fl (femtoliters). However, reticulocyte (range: 51-205 x 109/l) and neutrophil counts (range: 9.5-1.3 x 109/l) obtained at this dose were significantly lower than those obtained with 15 mg kg-1 day-1. All patients reported a decrease in frequency or severity of vasoocclusive episodes. These results suggest that a hydroxyurea dose of 15 mg kg-1 day-1 seems to be adequate for treatment of sickle cell disease in view of the minimal side effects observed and the improvement in laboratory and clinical parameters.

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If a dot is flashed in perfect alignment with a pair of dots rotating around the visual fixation point, most observers perceive the rotating dots as being ahead of the flashing dot (flash-lag effect). This perceptual effect has been interpreted to result from the perceptual extrapolation of the moving dots, the differential visual latencies between flashing and moving stimuli, as well as the modulation of attentional mechanisms. Here we attempted to uncouple the attentional effects brought about by the spatial predictability of the flashing dot from the sensory effects dependent on its visual eccentricity. The stimulus was a pair of dots rotating clockwise around the fixation point. Another dot was flashed at either the upper right or the lower left of the visual field according to three separate blocked situations: fixed, alternate and random positions. Twenty-four participants had to judge, in all three situations, the location of the rotating dots in relation to the imaginary line connecting the flashing dot and the fixation point at the moment the dot was flashed. The flash-lag effect was observed in all three situations, and a clear influence of the spatial predictability of the flashing dot on the magnitude of the perceptual phenomenon was revealed, independently of sensory effects related to the eccentricity of the stimulus in the visual field. These findings are consistent with our proposal that, in addition to sensory factors, the attentional set modulates the magnitude of the differential latencies that give rise to the flash-lag phenomenon.

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When two stimuli are presented simultaneously to an observer, the perceived temporal order does not always correspond to the actual one. In three experiments we examined how the location and spatial predictability of visual stimuli modulate the perception of temporal order. Thirty-two participants had to report the temporal order of appearance of two visual stimuli. In Experiment 1, both stimuli were presented at the same eccentricity and no perceptual asynchrony between them was found. In Experiment 2, one stimulus was presented close to the fixation point and the other, peripheral, stimulus was presented in separate blocks in two eccentricities (4.8º and 9.6º). We found that the peripheral stimulus was perceived to be delayed in relation to the central one, with no significant difference between the delays obtained in the two eccentricities. In Experiment 3, using three eccentricities (2.5º, 7.3º and 12.1º) for the presentation of the peripheral stimulus, we compared a condition in which its location was highly predictable with two other conditions in which its location was progressively less predictable. Here, the perception of the peripheral stimulus was also delayed in relation to the central one, with this delay depending on both the eccentricity and predictability of the stimulus. We argue that attentional deployment, manipulated by the spatial predictability of the stimulus, seems to play an important role in the temporal order perception of visual stimuli. Yet, under whichever condition of spatial predictability, basic sensory and attentional processes are unavoidably entangled and both factors must concur to the perception of temporal order.

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Simple reaction time (SRT) in response to visual stimuli can be influenced by many stimulus features. The speed and accuracy with which observers respond to a visual stimulus may be improved by prior knowledge about the stimulus location, which can be obtained by manipulating the spatial probability of the stimulus. However, when higher spatial probability is achieved by holding constant the stimulus location throughout successive trials, the resulting improvement in performance can also be due to local sensory facilitation caused by the recurrent spatial location of a visual target (position priming). The main objective of the present investigation was to quantitatively evaluate the modulation of SRT by the spatial probability structure of a visual stimulus. In two experiments the volunteers had to respond as quickly as possible to the visual target presented on a computer screen by pressing an optic key with the index finger of the dominant hand. Experiment 1 (N = 14) investigated how SRT changed as a function of both the different levels of spatial probability and the subject's explicit knowledge about the precise probability structure of visual stimulation. We found a gradual decrease in SRT with increasing spatial probability of a visual target regardless of the observer's previous knowledge concerning the spatial probability of the stimulus. Error rates, below 2%, were independent of the spatial probability structure of the visual stimulus, suggesting the absence of a speed-accuracy trade-off. Experiment 2 (N = 12) examined whether changes in SRT in response to a spatially recurrent visual target might be accounted for simply by sensory and temporally local facilitation. The findings indicated that the decrease in SRT brought about by a spatially recurrent target was associated with its spatial predictability, and could not be accounted for solely in terms of sensory priming.

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When the offset of a visual stimulus (GAP condition) precedes the onset of a target, saccadic reaction times are reduced in relation to the condition with no offset (overlap condition) - the GAP effect. However, the existence of the GAP effect for manual responses is still controversial. In two experiments using both simple (Experiment 1, N = 18) and choice key-press procedures (Experiment 2, N = 12), we looked for the GAP effect in manual responses and investigated possible contextual influences on it. Participants were asked to respond to the imperative stimulus that would occur under different experimental contexts, created by varying the array of warning-stimulus intervals (0, 300 and 1000 ms) and conditions (GAP and overlap): i) intervals and conditions were randomized throughout the experiment; ii) conditions were run in different blocks and intervals were randomized; iii) intervals were run in different blocks and conditions were randomized. Our data showed that no GAP effect was obtained for any manipulation. The predictability of stimulus occurrence produced the strongest influence on response latencies. In Experiment 1, simple manual responses were shorter when the intervals were blocked (247 ms, P < 0.001) in relation to the other two contexts (274 and 279 ms). Despite the use of choice key-press procedures, Experiment 2 produced a similar pattern of results. A discussion addressing the critical conditions to obtain the GAP effect for distinct motor responses is presented. In short, our data stress the relevance of the temporal allocation of attention for behavioral performance.

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In order to evaluate the performance of a 1-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) for the diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a cohort of 4998 women, 20 years or older, without previous diabetes being treated in prenatal care clinics in Brazil answered a questionnaire and performed a 75-g OGTT including fasting, 1-h and 2-h glucose measurements between their 24th and 28th gestational weeks. Pregnancy outcomes were transcribed from medical registries. GDM was defined according to WHO criteria (fasting: ≥126 mg/dL; 2-h value: ≥140 mg/dL) and macrosomia as a birth weight equal to or higher than 4000 g. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) were compared and diagnostic properties of various cut-off points were evaluated. The AUCs for the prediction of macrosomia were 0.606 (0.572-0.637) for the 1-h and 0.589 (0.557-0.622) for the 2-h plasma glucose test. Similar predictability was demonstrable regarding combined adverse outcomes: 0.582 (0.559-0.604) for the 1-h test and 0.572 (0.549-0.595) for the 2-h test. When the 1-h glucose test was evaluated against a diagnosis of GDM defined by the 2-h glucose test, the AUC was 0.903 (0.886-0.919). The cut-off point that maximized sensitivity (83%) and specificity (83%) was 141 mg/dL, identifying 21% of the women as positive. A cut-off point of 160 mg/dL, with lower sensitivity (62%), had higher specificity (94%), labeling 8.6% as positive. Detection of GDM can be done with a 1-h 75-g OGTT: the value of 160 mg/dL has the same diagnostic performance as the conventional 2-h value (140 mg/dL). The simplification of the test may improve coverage and timing of the diagnosis of GDM.

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AbstractIntroduction/objective:We evaluated the predictability of early changes in serum albumin (sAlb) on the two-year mortality of incident hemodialysis patients.Methods:Observational, longitudinal retrospective study using the database of Fresenius Medical Care of Latin America. Adult patients starting dialysis from January/2000 to June/2004, from 25 centers were included. Changes in sAlb during the first 3 months on hemodialysis were used as the main predictor. The outcome was death from any cause.Results:1,679 incident patients were included. They were 52 ± 15 years old, 58.7% male and 21.5% diabetic, with a median sAlb of 38 g/L (bromocresol green). 923 patients had sAlb < 38 g/L (Low sAlb Group) and 756 ones had sAlb > 38.0 g/L (Adequate sAlb Group). The mortality was significantly higher in Low sAlb Group (17% vs. 11%, p < 0.001). Early changes in sAlb significantly affected two-year mortality. Factoring the Kaplan Meier curve of Low sAlb Group by the presence of an increase in sAlb uncovered of a statistically significant difference in mortality favoring the ones whose sAlb went up (19% vs. 15%, p = 0.043). Differently, patients from Adequate sAlb Group with a decrease in their sAlb had a statistically higher mortality rate (13% vs. 8%, p = 0.029).Conclusions:Early sAlb changes showed a significant predictive power on mortality at 2 years in incident hemodialysis patients. Those with low initial sAlb may have a better prognosis if their sAlb rises. In contrast, patients with satisfactory initial levels can have a worsening of their prognosis in the case of an early reduction in sAlb.

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The (un)predictability of the crisis and the pluralism in Economics. This paper discusses the predictability of the last global economic crisis relating it to the lack of pluralism in Economics. In order to do so, first is presented a literature review of the development of economic theory in recent years. Then the two main views on the predictability of the crisis are presented: (1) the economic models used to understand the economy did not incorporate bubbles so, the crisis was unpredictable; and (2) the crisis was predictable when applied other methods of understanding the economy.