Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Análise estatística da distribuição de Poisson

The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur.

Alterações morfológicas provocadas pela aplicação de um análogo de hormônio juvenil em Dysdercus ruficollis (Linnaeus, 1764) (Hemiptera, Pyrrhocoridae, Pyrrhocorinae)

Dysdercus ruficollis [Linnaeus, 1764), vulgarmente conhecidos como "percevejos manchadores do algodão", foram tratados no início do 5º estádio ninfal com um análogo do hormônio juvenil (N(5-cloro-2-metilfenil)-3,7-dimetil-2,6-octadienilamina), através da aplicação tópica na base das asas. Após a muda os insetos apresentaram aspecto ressecado, alterações morfológicas externas bastante acentuadas na cabeça, tórax, patas, asas e abdômen, dificultando suas atividades normais. Entretanto, a genitália externa de ambos os sextos mostrou-se inalterada. A aplicação da substância foi capaz de alterar e interromper o ciclo biológico destes insetos.

SSPBE: um programa para solução numérica da equação de Poisson-Boltzmann em simetria esférica com modelo de adsorção

A Fortran77 program, SSPBE, designed to solve the spherically symmetric Poisson-Boltzmann equation using cell model for ionic macromolecular aggregates or macroions is presented. The program includes an adsorption model for ions at the aggregate surface. The working algorithm solves the Poisson-Boltzmann equation in the integral representation using the Picard iteration method. Input parameters are introduced via an ASCII file, sspbe.txt. Output files yield the radial distances versus mean field potentials and average molar ion concentrations, the molar concentration of ions at the cell boundary, the self-consistent degree of ion adsorption from the surface and other related data. Ion binding to ionic, zwitterionic and reverse micelles are presented as representative examples of the applications of the SSPBE program.

Aplicação da equação de Poisson-Boltzmann ao cálculo de propriedades dependentes do pH em proteínas

The ability of biomolecules to catalyze chemical reactions is due chiefly to their sensitivity to variations of the pH in the surrounding environment. The reason for this is that they are made up of chemical groups whose ionization states are modulated by pH changes that are of the order of 0.4 units. The determination of the protonation states of such chemical groups as a function of conformation of the biomolecule and the pH of the environment can be useful in the elucidation of important biological processes from enzymatic catalysis to protein folding and molecular recognition. In the past 15 years, the theory of Poisson-Boltzmann has been successfully used to estimate the pKa of ionizable sites in proteins yielding results, which may differ by 0.1 unit from the experimental values. In this study, we review the theory of Poisson-Boltzmann under the perspective of its application to the calculation of pKa in proteins.