Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Effect of race, genetic population structure, and genetic models in two-locus association studies: clustering of functional renin-angiotensin system gene variants in hypertension association studies

Previous genetic association studies have overlooked the potential for biased results when analyzing different population structures in ethnically diverse populations. The purpose of the present study was to quantify this bias in two-locus association studies conducted on an admixtured urban population. We studied the genetic structure distribution of angiotensin-converting enzyme insertion/deletion (ACE I/D) and angiotensinogen methionine/threonine (M/T) polymorphisms in 382 subjects from three subgroups in a highly admixtured urban population. Group I included 150 white subjects; group II, 142 mulatto subjects, and group III, 90 black subjects. We conducted sample size simulation studies using these data in different genetic models of gene action and interaction and used genetic distance calculation algorithms to help determine the population structure for the studied loci. Our results showed a statistically different population structure distribution of both ACE I/D (P = 0.02, OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.05-2.33 for the D allele, white versus black subgroup) and angiotensinogen M/T polymorphism (P = 0.007, OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.14-2.58 for the T allele, white versus black subgroup). Different sample sizes are predicted to be determinant of the power to detect a given genotypic association with a particular phenotype when conducting two-locus association studies in admixtured populations. In addition, the postulated genetic model is also a major determinant of the power to detect any association in a given sample size. The present simulation study helped to demonstrate the complex interrelation among ethnicity, power of the association, and the postulated genetic model of action of a particular allele in the context of clustering studies. This information is essential for the correct planning and interpretation of future association studies conducted on this population.

Linking customer satisfaction, quality, and strategic planning

By acknowledging and dissecting the interconnected roles of customer satisfaction, quality, and strategic planning, this paper provides an analytical framework for creating a customer-driven organization and culture. It shows how quality starts and ends with the customer. Companies that are achieving long-term continuous improvement in quality tailored to customer satisfaction possess lasting characteristics such as customer orientation, customer consciousness, and customer responsiveness. In doing so, they liberate the quality concept from the narrow product or service focus to encompass total conformance to customer requirements in spite of the existing functionalization and departmentalization of modern complex structures. In addition to these key components, a customer-driven organization demands building and nurturing a customer satisfaction culture and value system that makes quality improvement and heightened concern for customer satisfaction a permanent aspect of organizational life.

Dependence relationship between the critical quality factors and social impact

This paper shows the results of the empirical study conducted in 186 tourist accommodation businesses in Spain certified under the "Q for Tourist Quality", own System Quality Management. It was raised with the purpose of analyzing the structure of the relationship between critical quality factors and results-social impact, how they operate and the level of their influence on obtaining these results within the company. Starting from a deep theoretical revision we propose a theoretical model together with the hypotheses to be tested, and we proceed to validation using the technique of Structural Equation Models. The results obtained show that companies wishing to improve their social impact should take into account that leadership is the most important factor to achieve it. Leadership indirectly affects the social impact through its influence on alliances and resources, quality policy/planning, personnel management and learning.

ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL VARIABLES IN APPLICATION SCORING MODELS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of psychological variables and scales suggested by Economic Psychology in predicting individuals’ default. Therefore, a sample of 555 individuals completed a self-completion questionnaire, which was composed of psychological variables and scales. By adopting the methodology of the logistic regression, the following psychological and behavioral characteristics were found associated with the group of individuals in default: a) negative dimensions related to money (suffering, inequality and conflict); b) high scores on the self-efficacy scale, probably indicating a greater degree of optimism and over-confidence; c) buyers classified as compulsive; d) individuals who consider it necessary to give gifts to children and friends on special dates, even though many people consider this a luxury; e) problems of self-control identified by individuals who drink an average of more than four glasses of alcoholic beverage a day.

Enterprise Resource Planning governamental: a percepção dos servidores atuantes no Projeto Ciclo do Ministério da Justiça quanto à implementação

Indubitavelmente, a implementação de sistemas de gestão integrada é fator consolidado em empresas privadas; no entanto, em empresas públicas é relativamente recente e inovadora. Em 2009, o Ministério da Justiça (MJ) foi um dos pioneiros ao firmar parceria com a Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) para a implantação de sistemas de gestão integrada. Com o decorrer dos processos de implementação surge a necessidade de identificar se o acordo surtiu os efeitos a que se destinou, bem como é pertinente a análise da implementação de um Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) governamental em uma empresa pública, haja vista que existe uma tendência de que se repita em outras instituições governamentais. Assim, o principal objetivo deste artigo é identificar a percepção dos usuários quanto ao processo de implementação de sistemas integrados de gestão vinculados ao Projeto Ciclo, no âmbito da Secretaria Executiva do MJ, destacando suas principais dificuldades e benefícios. A fim de atingir o objetivo da pesquisa foi realizada uma pesquisa quali-quantitativa, cujo procedimento técnico foi o estudo de caso. Verificou-se que os usuários do sistema reconhecem sua importância como apoio à tomada de decisão, que estão cientes do papel que desempenham no processo de implementação e que a tecnologia da informação (TI) é fundamental para se obter melhoria nos processos executados. Ademais, percebe-se os avanços que um ERP governamental pode proporcionar a empresas públicas, destacando-se o planejamento e a confiabilidade das informações.

An appraisal of the health planning method proposed by the Pan-American Health Organization for Latin America

A brief description of the main features of the health planning technique developed by the "Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo" (CENDES) in Venezuela, and proposed by the Pan-American Health Organization for use in Latin America, is presented. This presentation is followed by an appraisal of the planning method which includes comments both upon its positive aspects and upon its negative points. Comments are also made referring to other recent publications of the WHO/PAHO on health planning. In conclusion, the CENDES technique is considered a health planning method of great potential for use especially in underdeveloped areas, the success of its application depending upon the hability of the health planners to introduce the necessary modifications to adapt to the local circunstamces.

Notes on health care planning in Latin America and the Caribbean

Attention is called to the fact that the efforts to improve health of populations in Latin America have generally failed. The inequality in the distribution of ill-health is great. The authors accept the fact that the lack of resources available to the health sector may be a restriction towards the improvement of the situation, but they argue that a much more important issue is the misuse of such resources and their maldistribution within the health sector. The lack of integration and coordination between the health services, the conflict of public and private health systems, the under-utilization of existing services and the gap between planning and real implementation are discussed.

Estimate of DMFT index using teeth most affected by dental caries in twelve-year-old children

The objective of the study was to develop regression models to describe the epidemiological profile of dental caries in 12-year-old children in an area of low prevalence of caries. Two distinct random probabilistic samples of schoolchildren (n=1,763) attending public and private schools in Piracicaba, Southeastern Brazil, were studied. Regression models were estimated as a function of the most affected teeth using data collected in 2005 and were validated using a 2001 database. The mean (SD) DMFT index was 1.7 (2.08) in 2001 and the regression equations estimated a DMFT index of 1.67 (1.98), which corresponds to 98.2% of the DMFT index in 2001. The study provided detailed data on the caries profile in 12-year-old children by using an updated analytical approach. Regression models can be an accurate and feasible method that can provide valuable information for the planning and evaluation of oral health services.

Pregnancy rates and predictors in women with HIV/AIDS in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence and predictors of first pregnancy among women with HIV/AIDS. METHODS: Prospective cohort study was conducted in Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1996 and 2003. This study comprised 225 women with HIV/AIDS followed up until their first pregnancy or first censored event (hysterectomy, tubal ligation, menopause, 50 years of age, loss to follow-up, death or the end of December 2003). Pregnancy and abortion rates were estimated, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify baseline characteristics associated with pregnancy risk. RESULTS: The women were followed up for 565 person/years with a median follow-up of 3 years per women. The mean age was 32 years (SD: 7), and 54.7% were white. There were 60 pregnancies in 39 women, and 18 were terminated (induced abortions), accounting for a rate of 6.9% and 2.1% women/year, respectively. Repeated pregnancies occurred in 33.3% of the women (13/39). Higher pregnancy risk was seen among younger women (HR=3.42; 95%CI: 1.69;6.95) and those living with their partners (HR=1.89; 95%CI: 1.00;3.57). Lower pregnancy risk was associated with higher education level (HR=0.43; 95%CI: 0.19;0.99) and use of antiretroviral therapy (HR=061; 95%CI: 0.31;1.17). CONCLUSIONS: Lower pregnancy rates were found in our cohort than in the general population. Sociodemographic characteristics should be taken into consideration in the management of reproductive health in HIV-positive childbearing age women. Reproductive and family planning counseling must be incorporated into HIV/AIDS programs for women to help preventing HIV transmission to their partners and offspring.

Factors associated with vaccination coverage in children < 5 years in Angola

OBJECTIVE To analyze vaccination coverage and factors associated with a complete immunization scheme in children < 5 years old. METHODS This cross-sectional household census survey evaluated 1,209 children < 5 years old living in Bom Jesus, Angola, in 2010. Data were obtained from interviews, questionnaires, child immunization histories, and maternal health histories. The statistical analysis used generalized linear models, in which the dependent variable followed a binary distribution (vaccinated, unvaccinated) and the association function was logarithmic and had the children’s individual, familial, and socioeconomic factors as independent variables. RESULTS Vaccination coverage was 37.0%, higher in children < 1 year (55.0%) and heterogeneous across neighborhoods; 52.0% of children of both sexes had no immunization records. The prevalence rate of vaccination significantly varied according to child age, mother’s level of education, family size, ownership of household appliances, and destination of domestic waste. CONCLUSIONS Vulnerable groups with vaccination coverage below recommended levels continue to be present. Some factors indicate inequalities that represent barriers to full immunization, indicating the need to implement more equitable policies. The knowledge of these factors contributes to planning immunization promotion measures that focus on the most vulnerable groups.

Institutional and matrix support and its relationship with primary healthcare

OBJECTIVE To analyze whether the level of institutional and matrix support is associated with better certification of primary healthcare teams.METHODS In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated two kinds of primary healthcare support – 14,489 teams received institutional support and 14,306 teams received matrix support. Logistic regression models were applied. In the institutional support model, the independent variable was “level of support” (as calculated by the sum of supporting activities for both modalities). In the matrix support model, in turn, the independent variables were the supporting activities. The multivariate analysis has considered variables with p < 0.20. The model was adjusted by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.RESULTS The teams had institutional and matrix supporting activities (84.0% and 85.0%), respectively, with 55.0% of them performing between six and eight activities. For the institutional support, we have observed 1.96 and 3.77 chances for teams who had medium and high levels of support to have very good or good certification, respectively. For the matrix support, the chances of their having very good or good certification were 1.79 and 3.29, respectively. Regarding to the association between institutional support activities and the certification, the very good or good certification was positively associated with self-assessment (OR = 1.95), permanent education (OR = 1.43), shared evaluation (OR = 1.40), and supervision and evaluation of indicators (OR = 1.37). In regards to the matrix support, the very good or good certification was positively associated with permanent education (OR = 1.50), interventions in the territory (OR = 1.30), and discussion in the work processes (OR = 1.23).CONCLUSIONS In Brazil, supporting activities are being incorporated in primary healthcare, and there is an association between the level of support, both matrix and institutional, and the certification result.