89 resultados para Parameters estimation
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
In the forced-air cooling process of fruits occurs, besides the convective heat transfer, the mass transfer by evaporation. The energy need in the evaporation is taken from fruit that has its temperature lowered. In this study it has been proposed the use of empirical correlations for calculating the convective heat transfer coefficient as a function of surface temperature of the strawberry during the cooling process. The aim of this variation of the convective coefficient is to compensate the effect of evaporation in the heat transfer process. Linear and exponential correlations are tested, both with two adjustable parameters. The simulations are performed using experimental conditions reported in the literature for the cooling of strawberries. The results confirm the suitability of the proposed methodology.
Resumo:
A quantitative analysis is made on the correlation ship of thermodynamic property, i.e., standard enthalpy of formation (ΔH fº) with Kier's molecular connectivity index(¹Xv),vander waal's volume (Vw) electrotopological state index (E) and refractotopological state index (R) in gaseous state of alkanes. The regression analysis reveals a significant linear correlation of standard enthalpy of formation (ΔH fº) with ¹Xv, Vw, E and R. The equations obtained by regression analysis may be used to estimate standard enthalpy of formation (ΔH fº) of alkanes in gaseous state.
Resumo:
The increase of malaria transmission in the Pacific Coast of Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño warm event has been found not to be linked to increases in the density of the vector Anopheles albimanus, but to other temperature-sensitive variables such as longevity, duration of the gonotrophic cycle or the sporogonic period of Plasmodium. The present study estimated the effects of temperature on duration of the gonotrophic cycle and on maturation of the ovaries of An. albimanus. Blood fed adult mosquitoes were exposed to temperatures of 24, 27, and 30°C, held individually in oviposition cages and assessed at 12 h intervals. At 24, 27, and 30°C the mean development time of the oocytes was 91.2 h (95% C.I.: 86.5-96), 66.2 h (61.5-70.8), and 73.1 h (64-82.3), respectively. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle for these three temperatures was 88.4 h (81.88-94.9), 75 h (71.4-78.7), and 69.1 h (64.6-73.6) respectively. These findings indicate that both parameters in An. albimanus are reduced when temperatures rose from 24 to 30°C, in a nonlinear manner. According to these results the increase in malaria transmission during El Niño in Colombia could be associated with a shortening of the gonotrophic cycle in malaria vectors, which could enhance the frequency of man-vector contact, affecting the incidence of the disease.
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The objective of this work was to compare random regression models for the estimation of genetic parameters for Guzerat milk production, using orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Records (20,524) of test-day milk yield (TDMY) from 2,816 first-lactation Guzerat cows were used. TDMY grouped into 10-monthly classes were analyzed for additive genetic effect and for environmental and residual permanent effects (random effects), whereas the contemporary group, calving age (linear and quadratic effects) and mean lactation curve were analized as fixed effects. Trajectories for the additive genetic and permanent environmental effects were modeled by means of a covariance function employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials ranging from the second to the fifth order. Residual variances were considered in one, four, six, or ten variance classes. The best model had six residual variance classes. The heritability estimates for the TDMY records varied from 0.19 to 0.32. The random regression model that used a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and a fifth-order polynomial for the permanent environmental effect is adequate for comparison by the main employed criteria. The model with a second-order Legendre polynomial for the additive genetic effect, and that with a fourth-order for the permanent environmental effect could also be employed in these analyses.
Resumo:
Extended Hildebrand Solubility Approach (EHSA) was successfully applied to evaluate the solubility of Indomethacin in 1,4-dioxane + water mixtures at 298.15 K. An acceptable correlation-performance of EHSA was found by using a regular polynomial model in order four of the W interaction parameter vs. solubility parameter of the mixtures (overall deviation was 8.9%). Although the mean deviation obtained was similar to that obtained directly by means of an empiric regression of the experimental solubility vs. mixtures solubility parameters, the advantages of EHSA are evident because it requires physicochemical properties easily available for drugs.
Resumo:
The numerous methods for calculating the potential or reference evapotranspiration (ETo or ETP) almost always do for a 24-hour period, including values of climatic parameters throughout the nocturnal period (daily averages). These results have a nil effect on transpiration, constituting the main evaporative demand process in cases of localized irrigation. The aim of the current manuscript was to come up with a model rather simplified for the calculation of diurnal daily ETo. It deals with an alternative approach based on the theoretical background of the Penman method without having to consider values of aerodynamic conductance of latent and sensible heat fluxes, as well as data of wind speed and relative humidity of the air. The comparison between the diurnal values of ETo measured in weighing lysimeters with elevated precision and estimated by either the Penman-Monteith method or the Simplified-Penman approach in study also points out a fairly consistent agreement among the potential demand calculation criteria. The Simplified-Penman approach was a feasible alternative to estimate ETo under the local meteorological conditions of two field trials. With the availability of the input data required, such a method could be employed in other climatic regions for scheduling irrigation.
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Radiation balance is the fraction of incident solar radiation upon earth surface which is available to be used in several natural processes, such as biological metabolism, water loss by vegetated surfaces, variation of temperature in farming systems and organic decomposition. The present study aimed to assess and validate the performance of two estimation models for Rn in Ponta Grossa city, Paraná State, Brazil. To this end, during the period of 04/01/2008 to 04/30/2011, from radiometric data collected by an automatic weather station set at the Experimental Station, of the State University of Ponta Grossa. We performed a linear regression study by confrontation between measurements made through radiometric balance and Rn estimates obtained from Brunt classical method, and the proposed method. Both models showed excellent performance and were confirmed by the statistical parameters applied. However, the alternative method has the advantage of requiring only global solar radiation values, temperature, and relative humidity.
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Objective To evaluate the accuracy of fetal weight prediction by ultrasonography labor employing a formula including the linear measurements of femur length (FL) and mid-thigh soft-tissue thickness (STT). Methods We conducted a prospective study involving singleton uncomplicated term pregnancies within 48 hours of delivery. Only pregnancies with a cephalic fetus admitted in the labor ward for elective cesarean section, induction of labor or spontaneous labor were included. We excluded all non-Caucasian women, the ones previously diagnosed with gestational diabetes and the ones with evidence of ruptured membranes. Fetal weight estimates were calculated using a previously proposed formula [estimated fetal weight = [1] 1687.47 + (54.1 x FL) + (76.68 x STT). The relationship between actual birth weight and estimated fetal weight was analyzed using Pearson's correlation. The formula's performance was assessed by calculating the signed and absolute errors. Mean weight difference and signed percentage error were calculated for birth weight divided into three subgroups: < 3000 g; 3000-4000g; and > 4000 g. Results We included for analysis 145 cases and found a significant, yet low, linear relationship between birth weight and estimated fetal weight (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.197) with an absolute mean error of 10.6%. The lowest mean percentage error (0.3%) corresponded to the subgroup with birth weight between 3000 g and 4000 g. Conclusions This study demonstrates a poor correlation between actual birth weight and the estimated fetal weight using a formula based on femur length and mid-thigh soft-tissue thickness, both linear parameters. Although avoidance of circumferential ultrasound measurements might prove to be beneficial, it is still yet to be found a fetal estimation formula that can be both accurate and simple to perform.
Resumo:
This study aimed to evaluate the interference of tuberculin test on the gamma-interferon (INFg) assay, to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay in Brazilian conditions, and to simulate multiple testing using the comparative tuberculin test and the INFg assay. Three hundred-fifty cattle from two TB-free and two TB-infected herds were submitted to the comparative tuberculin test and the INFg assay. The comparative tuberculin test was performed using avian and bovine PPD. The INFg assay was performed by the BovigamTM kit (CSL Veterinary, Australia), according to the manufacturer's specifications. Sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay were assessed by a Bayesian latent class model. These diagnostic parameters were also estimate for multiple testing. The results of INFg assay on D0 and D3 after the comparative tuberculin test were compared by the McNemar's test and kappa statistics. Results of mean optical density from INFg assay on both days were similar. Sensitivity and specificity of the INFg assay showed results varying (95% confidence intervals) from 72 to 100% and 74 to 100% respectively. Sensitivity of parallel testing was over 97.5%, while specificity of serial testing was over 99.7%. The INFg assay proved to be a very useful diagnostic method.
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Design of flight control laws, verification of performance predictions, and the implementation of flight simulations are tasks that require a mathematical model of the aircraft dynamics. The dynamical models are characterized by coefficients (aerodynamic derivatives) whose values must be determined from flight tests. This work outlines the use of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) in obtaining the aerodynamic derivatives of an aircraft. The EKF shows several advantages over the more traditional least-square method (LS). Among these the most important are: there are no restrictions on linearity or in the form which the parameters appears in the mathematical model describing the system, and it is not required that these parameters be time invariant. The EKF uses the statistical properties of the process and the observation noise, to produce estimates based on the mean square error of the estimates themselves. Differently, the LS minimizes a cost function based on the plant output behavior. Results for the estimation of some longitudinal aerodynamic derivatives from simulated data are presented.
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This work is aimed at evaluating the physicochemical, physical, chromatic, microbiological, and sensorial stability of a non-dairy dessert elaborated with soy, guava juice, and oligofructose for 60 days at refrigerated storage as well as to estimate its shelf life time. The titrable acidity, pH, instrumental color, water activity, ascorbic acid, and physical stability were measured. Panelists (n = 50) from the campus community used a hedonic scale to assess the acceptance, purchase intent, creaminess, flavor, taste, acidity, color, and overall appearance of the dessert during 60 days. The data showed that the parameters differed significantly (p < 0.05) from the initial time, and they could be fitted in mathematical equations with coefficient of determination above 71%, aiming to consider them suitable for prediction purposes. Creaminess and acceptance did not differ statistically in the 60-day period; taste, flavor, and acidity kept a suitable hedonic score during storage. Notwithstanding, the sample showed good physical stability against gravity and presented more than 15% of the Brazilian Daily Recommended Value of copper, iron, and ascorbic acid. The product shelf life estimation found was 79 days considering the overall acceptance, acceptance index and purchase intent.
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The increased preference for minimally processed vegetables has been attributed to the health benefits associated with fresh produce and the demand for ready-to-eat salads. In this paper, lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) was evaluated for the effects of different cropping systems on the respiratory properties. Lettuce was packaged in low density polyethylene bags and stored in a refrigerator at 4 ºC. The concentration of carbon dioxide and oxygen inside the package was monitored during the storage at zero, three, six, eight, ten and twelve days by gas chromatography. Dry matter variation was measured gravimetrically up to day fourteen of storage. Values of respiratory rate for conventional lettuce increased from day 1 to 3 and remained low, while respiratory rate of the organic lettuce increased three-fold up to day 8, stabilizing at a high level. Variation in dry matter during storage also resulted from differences between the two cultivation systems. The highest content of dry matter was achieved by organic lettuce.
Resumo:
When the electrostatic spraying is used correctly, it provides advantages over conventional systems, however many factors can affect the system efficiency. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the charge/mass ratio (Q/M) at different spraying distances (0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 m), and the liquid deposition efficiency on the target. Evaluating the Q/M ratio the Faraday cage method was used and to evaluate the liquid deposition efficiency the artificial targets were positioned longitudinally and transversely to the spray jet. It was found that the spraying distance affects the Q/M ratio, consequently, the liquid deposition efficiency. For the closest distance to the target the Q/M ratio was 4.11 mC kg-1, and at distances of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 m, the ratio decreased to 1.38, 0.64, 0.31, 0.17 and 0.005 mC kg-1, respectively. For the liquid deposition, the electrostatic system was affected by the target orientation and spraying distance. The target transversely to the jet of liquid did not improve the liquid deposition, but longitudinally increased the deposition up to 3 meters of distance.
Resumo:
The sweat glands are important in thermoregulation of cattle in a warm environment as they help dissipate heat through evaporation. Studies on gland histology are important to define its secretion potential and the capacity of perspiration and heat removal. The objective of this study was to determine, by histomorphometry, glandular epithelium height, the depth of the gland, length of the glandular portion and number of glands per cm2 of the sweat glands of the three age groups of Nellore cattle. Thirty females were used in this study. They were equally divided into calves, heifers and cows. Histological sections were obtained and analyzed by digital images in Trinocular BX40 Olympus microscope coupled to an Oly - 200 camera, connected to a computer. The images were obtained with microscope with 2x, 4x, 10x and 40x magnification objectives. The measurements were performed using HL Image 97 program. The height of glandular epithelium, depth of the glands, length and density of the glandular portion per cm2 , were all analyzed. The calves showed greater height of the glandular epithelium than heifers (P = 0.0024), and cows (P = 0.0191). The depth of the gland was not influenced by age. Cows had higher length of secretory portion than heifers (P = 0.0379) and calves (P = 0.0077). Heifers had a greater number of sweat glands per cm2 of skin than cows (P = 0.023). In cattle, the height of glandular epithelium and the density decreases as animals get older. On the other hand, the length of the secretor portion increases but with no changes in the depth of the sweat glands
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: Describe the overall transmission of malaria through a compartmental model, considering the human host and mosquito vector. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed based on the following parameters: human host immunity, assuming the existence of acquired immunity and immunological memory, which boosts the protective response upon reinfection; mosquito vector, taking into account that the average period of development from egg to adult mosquito and the extrinsic incubation period of parasites (transformation of infected but non-infectious mosquitoes into infectious mosquitoes) are dependent on the ambient temperature. RESULTS: The steady state equilibrium values obtained with the model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio in terms of the model's parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio, one of the most important epidemiological variables.