Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.

Applicability of a distributed watershed pollution model in a data-poor environment in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

Intensification of agricultural production without a sound management and regulations can lead to severe environmental problems, as in Western Santa Catarina State, Brazil, where intensive swine production has caused large accumulations of manure and consequently water pollution. Natural resource scientists are asked by decision-makers for advice on management and regulatory decisions. Distributed environmental models are useful tools, since they can be used to explore consequences of various management practices. However, in many areas of the world, quantitative data for model calibration and validation are lacking. The data-intensive distributed environmental model AgNPS was applied in a data-poor environment, the upper catchment (2,520 ha) of the Ariranhazinho River, near the city of Seara, in Santa Catarina State. Steps included data preparation, cell size selection, sensitivity analysis, model calibration and application to different management scenarios. The model was calibrated based on a best guess for model parameters and on a pragmatic sensitivity analysis. The parameters were adjusted to match model outputs (runoff volume, peak runoff rate and sediment concentration) closely with the sparse observed data. A modelling grid cell resolution of 150 m adduced appropriate and computer-fit results. The rainfall runoff response of the AgNPS model was calibrated using three separate rainfall ranges (< 25, 25-60, > 60 mm). Predicted sediment concentrations were consistently six to ten times higher than observed, probably due to sediment trapping along vegetated channel banks. Predicted N and P concentrations in stream water ranged from just below to well above regulatory norms. Expert knowledge of the area, in addition to experience reported in the literature, was able to compensate in part for limited calibration data. Several scenarios (actual, recommended and excessive manure applications, and point source pollution from swine operations) could be compared by the model, using a relative ranking rather than quantitative predictions.

Contextual determinants of induced abortion: a panel analysis

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the contextual and individual characteristics that explain the differences in the induced abortion rate, temporally and territorially. METHODS We conducted an econometric analysis with panel data of the influence of public investment in health and per capita income on induced abortion as well as a measurement of the effect of social and economic factors related to the labor market and reproduction: female employment, immigration, adolescent fertility and marriage rate. The empirical exercise was conducted with a sample of 22 countries in Europe for the 2001-2009 period. RESULTS The great territorial variability of induced abortion was the result of contextual and individual socioeconomic factors. Higher levels of national income and investments in public health reduce its incidence. The following sociodemographic characteristics were also significant regressors of induced abortion: female employment, civil status, migration, and adolescent fertility. CONCLUSIONS Induced abortion responds to sociodemographic patterns, in which the characteristics of each country are essential. The individual and contextual socioeconomic inequalities impact significantly on its incidence. Further research on the relationship between economic growth, labor market, institutions and social norms is required to better understand its transnational variability and to reduce its incidence.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Relação entre mercado de terras, crescimento econômico e insegurança fundiária explicada por um modelo a "geração imbricada"

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between the land market failures and the economic growth in Brazil, starting from an overlapping model including two sectors: agricultural and industrial. The land is both a specific factor for agriculture and an asset that can be substituted to the capital used in industry. The trade-off between land and capital holding depends, among other factors, on the transaction costs on the land market. These costs result from land insecurity and generate a decrease in the land price that favors capital accumulation. Two assumptions follow from our model: one the one hand, land insecurity has a negative effect on the land price; one the other hand it has a positive effect on economic growth. These two hypotheses are tested on panel data for Brazilian Federation. The econometric results do not reject our hypothesis.

Um estudo sobre a vitimização para a cidade de São Paulo

A study about the victimization in the city of São Paulo. This paper applies the crime economics theory to Brazilian data. Following Becker (1968), Hinderlang et al. (1978) and Cohen et al. (1981), we tested the microeconomic factors that influence crime and victimization. For this end, the two waves of research of victimization of the Instituto Futuro Brasil, 2003 and 2008, were used in an effort to identify the determinants of victimization and police notification, using probit model. The main results suggest the factors which impact significantly the probability of victimization are the demographic characteristics, economic conditions and personal habits. The models of "life style" and "opportunity" seem to have good performance.

Key factors in working capital management in the Brazilian market

Many studies have been conducted in corporate finance regarding long-term investment and financing decisions. However, short-term asset investments play a significant role in the balance sheet of companies. Moreover, financial managers dedicate significant amounts of time and effort to the subject of working capital management, balancing current assets and liabilities. This paper provides insights regarding the key factors of working capital management by exploring the internal variables of a number of companies. This study used data from 2,976 Brazilian public companies from 2001 to 2008, and found that debt level, size and growth rate can affect the working capital management of companies.

CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: THE SPANISH CASE

ABSTRACT The enormous interest aroused by corporate social responsibility both in the academic and the business worlds forms the background for this study. Its objective is to analyze the relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial performance in view of the debate in the literature on the subject. The study focuses on a sample of Spanish companies taken from the IBEX 35 stock market index, using panel data methodology, which offers advantages in comparison to methodologies used in other studies. We analyzed the period from 2003 to 2010. Our findings suggest that there is no obvious relationship between corporate social responsibility and financial results, at least in the case of Spain.

Distribution and agroclimatic characterization of potential cultivation regions of physic nut in Mexico

The purposes of this study were to determine the distribution and climatic patterns of current and future physic nut (Jatropha curcas) cultivation regions in Mexico, and to identify possible locations for in vivo germplasm banks establishment, using geographic information systems. Current climatic data were processed by Floramap software to obtain distribution maps and climatic patterns of regions where wild physic nuts could be found. DIVA-GIS software analyzed current climatic data (Worldclim model) and climatic data generated by CCM3 model to identify current and future physic nut cultivation regions, respectively. The distribution map showed that physic nut was present in most of the tropical and subtropical areas of Mexico, which corresponded to three agroclimatic regions. Climate types were Aw2, Aw1, and Bs1, for regions 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Nontoxic genotypes were associated with region 2, and toxic genotypes were associated with regions 1 and 3. According to the current and future cultivation regions identified, the best suitable ones to establish in vivo germplasm collections were the coast of Michoacán and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, located among the states of Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Desarrollo de un modelo SIMCA para la clasificación de kerosinas mediante el empleo de la espectroscopía infrarroja

In the petroleum refining industry, the use of crude from several origins is frequent. This leads to a product of variable chemical composition during refining, hindering quality control. Therefore, it is important to develop classification models that help to better characterize those products. The objective of this study is to develop a SIMCA recognition pattern to classify kerosene using infrared spectroscopy data. The model permits to differentiate two kerosene groups with different chemical compositions, which was corroborated by mass spectrometry.

CLASSIFICATION OF FOREST ROADS AND DETERMINATION OF ROUTE USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

ABSTRACT Geographic Information System (GIS) is an indispensable software tool in forest planning. In forestry transportation, GIS can manage the data on the road network and solve some problems in transportation, such as route planning. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the pattern of the road network and define transport routes using GIS technology. The present research was conducted in a forestry company in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The criteria used to classify the pattern of forest roads were horizontal and vertical geometry, and pavement type. In order to determine transport routes, a data Analysis Model Network was created in ArcGIS using an Extension Network Analyst, allowing finding a route shorter in distance and faster. The results showed a predominance of horizontal geometry classes average (3) and bad (4), indicating presence of winding roads. In the case of vertical geometry criterion, the class of highly mountainous relief (4) possessed the greatest extent of roads. Regarding the type of pavement, the occurrence of secondary coating was higher (75%), followed by primary coating (20%) and asphalt pavement (5%). The best route was the one that allowed the transport vehicle travel in a higher specific speed as a function of road pattern found in the study.

Capacitação tecnológica e Catching Up: o caso das regiões metropolitanas emergentes brasileiras

Since the 1970's the loss of industrial output share of Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area relative to Brazil's industrial output has been explained by a process of "reversal polarization". This article aims to analyze the catching up effect of variables of productive efficiency, such as technological capacity and labor force skill. The main point is to analyze if the behavior of these variables favored or reduced desagglomeration of Sao Paulo city and the resulting agglomeration effect on Brazilian emerging metropolitan areas. Utilizing the Household Sample Survey (PNAD) of the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute (IBGE) we will test if there has been technological catching up between São Paulo (defined as the frontier) and second-tier metropolis of southern Brazil (Belo Horizonte, Curitiba and Porto Alegre). A set of panel data tests the importance of the variables referred to on spatial distribution of Brazilian industry.

Manufacturing real wages in Mexico

In this paper we analyse the recent evolution and determinants of real wages in Mexico’s manufacturing sector, using theories based on the assumption of imperfect competition both in the product and in the labour markets, especially wage-bargain theory, insider-outsider and mark-up models. We show evidence that the Mexican labour market does not behave as a traditional competitive market. The proposed explanation for this fact is that some workers benefit from advantages when compared with others, so that they can get a greater share of the proceedings of the productive process. Also, we find that changes in the degree of competition in the market for output influence the behaviour of real wages.

Trabalho infantil e o status ocupacional dos pais

Child labor and the parents' status of employment. The objective of this paper is to verify the hypothesis of the effect of the status of employment of the head of the family on the occurrence of child labor, as well as to analyze other characteristics which can influence such behavior. A probit model was used to realize the statistical tests. The results ratify the hypothesis proposed that the families whose head works as an independent worker show higher probability for the occurrence of child labor than those whose head works as a formal salaried worker. Among other results, it must be highlighted, making simulations, that increasing parents' schooling is more efficient than augmenting income to reduce the use of child labor. These results endorse the proposition that the status of employment should be used, complementing the criteria of income per capita, to select families in the cash transfers programmes or others to eradicate child labor.

Metas de inflação, política monetária e investimento: um estudo para dezessete países

In this paper two hypotheses about the relationship between monetary policy and investment in the context of the inflation target system were tested. One of these hypotheses is based on the idea of neutrality of money, and the other hypothesis is based on the reject of that idea. An investment equation for seventeen economies using a piece-wise dummy variable was estimated by the Methodology of Panel Data. The results highlight that a negative correlation between current expectation of restrictive monetary policy and current investment rose after the inflation target system implementation.