Contextual determinants of induced abortion: a panel analysis

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the contextual and individual characteristics that explain the differences in the induced abortion rate, temporally and territorially. METHODS We conducted an econometric analysis with panel data of the influence of public investment in health and per capita income on induced abortion as well as a measurement of the effect of social and economic factors related to the labor market and reproduction: female employment, immigration, adolescent fertility and marriage rate. The empirical exercise was conducted with a sample of 22 countries in Europe for the 2001-2009 period. RESULTS The great territorial variability of induced abortion was the result of contextual and individual socioeconomic factors. Higher levels of national income and investments in public health reduce its incidence. The following sociodemographic characteristics were also significant regressors of induced abortion: female employment, civil status, migration, and adolescent fertility. CONCLUSIONS Induced abortion responds to sociodemographic patterns, in which the characteristics of each country are essential. The individual and contextual socioeconomic inequalities impact significantly on its incidence. Further research on the relationship between economic growth, labor market, institutions and social norms is required to better understand its transnational variability and to reduce its incidence.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Mathematical analysis of maximum power generated by photovoltaic systems and fitting curves for standard test conditions

The rural electrification is characterized by geographical dispersion of the population, low consumption, high investment by consumers and high cost. Moreover, solar radiation constitutes an inexhaustible source of energy and in its conversion into electricity photovoltaic panels are used. In this study, equations were adjusted to field conditions presented by the manufacturer for current and power of small photovoltaic systems. The mathematical analysis was performed on the photovoltaic rural system I-100 from ISOFOTON, with power 300 Wp, located at the Experimental Farm Lageado of FCA/UNESP. For the development of such equations, the circuitry of photovoltaic cells has been studied to apply iterative numerical methods for the determination of electrical parameters and possible errors in the appropriate equations in the literature to reality. Therefore, a simulation of a photovoltaic panel was proposed through mathematical equations that were adjusted according to the data of local radiation. The results have presented equations that provide real answers to the user and may assist in the design of these systems, once calculated that the maximum power limit ensures a supply of energy generated. This real sizing helps establishing the possible applications of solar energy to the rural producer and informing the real possibilities of generating electricity from the sun.

Genetic and antigenic analysis of Babesia bigemina isolates from five geographical regions of Brazil

A molecular epidemiological study was performed with Babesia bigemina isolates from five geographical regions of Brazil. The genetic analysis was done with random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD), repetitive extragenic palindromic elements-polymerase chain reaction (REP-PCR) and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences-polymerase chain reaction (ERIC-PCR) that showed genetic polymorphism between these isolates and generated fingerprinting. In RAPD, ILO872 and ILO876 primers were able to detect at least one fingerprinting for each B. bigemina isolate. The amplification of B. bigemina DNA fragments by REP-PCR and ERIC-PCR gave evidence for the presence in this haemoprotozoan of the sequences described previously in microorganisms of the bacterial kingdom. For the first time it was demonstrated that both techniques can be used for genetic analysis of a protozoan parasite, although the ERIC-PCR was more discriminatory than REP-PCR. The dendogram with similarity coefficient among isolates showed two clusters and one subcluster. The Northeastern and Mid-Western isolates showed the greatest genetic diversity, while the Southeastern and Southern isolates were the closest. The antigenic analysis was done through indirect fluorescent antibody technique and Western blotting using a panel of monoclonal antibodies directed against epitopes on the merozoite membrane surface, rhoptries and membrane of infected erythrocytes. As expected, the merozoite variable surface antigens, major surface antigen (MSA)-1 and MSA-2 showed antigenic diversity. However, B cell epitopes on rhoptries and infected erythrocytes were conserved among all isolates studied. In this study it was possible to identify variable and conserved antigens, which had already been described as potential immunogens. Considering that an attenuated Babesia clone used as immunogen selected populations capable of evading the immunity induced by this vaccine, it is necessary to evaluate more deeply the cross-protection conferred by genetically more distant Brazilian B. bigemina isolates and make an evaluation of the polymorphism degree of variable antigens such as MSA-1 and MSA-2.