Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Narrowing inequalities in infant mortality in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To determine the trends of infant mortality from 1995 to 1999 according to a geographic area-based measure of maternal education in Porto Alegre, Brazil. METHODS: A registry-based study was carried out and a municipal database created in 1994 was used. All live births (n=119,170) and infant deaths (n=1,934) were considered. Five different geographic areas were defined according to quintiles of the percentage of low maternal educational level (<6 years of schooling): high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. The chi-square test for trend was used to compare rates between years. Incidence rate ratio was calculated using Poisson regression to identify excess infant mortality in poorer areas compared to higher schooling areas. RESULTS: The infant mortality rate (IMR) decreased steadily from 18.38 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1995 to 12.21 in 1999 (chi-square for trend p<0.001). Both neonatal and post-neonatal mortality rates decreased although the drop seemed to be steeper for the post-neonatal component. The higher decline was seen in poorer areas. CONCLUSION: Inequalities in IMR seem to have decreased due to a steeper reduction in both neonatal and post-neonatal components of infant mortality in lower maternal schooling area.

Outpatient health service utilization and associated factors: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that lead people to visit a doctor in Brazil and assess differences between socioeconomic groups. METHODS: A cross-sectional study comprising 1,260 subjects aged 15 or more was carried out in southern Brazil. Demographic, socioeconomic, health needs and regular source of care data were analyzed concerning visits to a doctor within two months from the interview. Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Adjusted PR showed that women having stressful life events, health insurance, and a regular doctor increased the outcome. A dose-related response was found with self-reported health, and the probability of visiting a doctor increased with health needs. Analysis in the chronic disease group revealed that uneducated lower income subjects had a 62% reduction in the chance of visiting a doctor compared to uneducated higher income ones. However, as it was seen a significant interaction between income and education, years of schooling increased utilization in this group. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the existence of health inequity in the poorest group that could be overcome with education. Specific measures reinforcing the importance of having a regular doctor may also improve access in the underserved group.

Infant mortality: comparison between two birth cohorts from Southeast and Northeast, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To obtain population estimates and profile risk factors for infant mortality in two birth cohorts and compare them among cities of different regions in Brazil. METHODS: In Ribeirão Preto, southeast Brazil, infant mortality was determined in a third of hospital live births (2,846 singleton deliveries) in 1994. In São Luís, northeast Brazil, data were obtained using systematic sampling of births stratified by maternity unit (2,443 singleton deliveries) in 1997-1998. Mothers answered standardized questionnaires shortly after delivery and information on infant deaths was retrieved from hospitals, registries and the States Health Secretarys' Office. The relative risk (RR) was estimated by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In São Luís, the infant mortality rate was 26.6/1,000 live births, the neonatal mortality rate was 18.4/1,000 and the post-neonatal mortality rate was 8.2/1,000, all higher than those observed in Ribeirão Preto (16.9, 10.9 and 6.0 per 1,000, respectively). Adjusted analysis revealed that previous stillbirths (RR=3.67 vs 4.13) and maternal age <18 years (RR=2.62 vs 2.59) were risk factors for infant mortality in the two cities. Inadequate prenatal care (RR=2.00) and male sex (RR=1.79) were risk factors in São Luís only, and a dwelling with 5 or more residents was a protective factor (RR=0.53). In Ribeirão Preto, maternal smoking was associated with infant mortality (RR=2.64). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to socioeconomic inequalities, differences in access to and quality of medical care between cities had an impact on infant mortality rates.

Epidemiology of physiotherapy utilization among adults and elderly

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the prevalence of physiotherapy utilization and to explore the variables associated to its utilization. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study, including 3,100 subjects aged 20 years or more living in the urban area of Pelotas, southern Brazil, was carried out. The sample was selected following a multiple-stage protocol; the census tracts delimited by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) were the primary sample units. Following descriptive and crude analyses, Poisson regression models taking the clustering of the sample into account were carried out. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a standardized and pre-tested questionnaire. RESULTS: The lifetime utilization of physiotherapy was 30.2%; and physiotherapy utilization in the 12 months prior to the interview was reported by 4.9%. Women, elderly subjects, and those from higher socioeconomic levels were more likely to use physiotherapy. Restricting analysis to subjects who attended physiotherapy, 66% used public health services, 25% used insurance health services and 9% had private sessions. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first population-based study on physiotherapy utilization carried out in Brazil. Utilization of physio therapy was lower than reported in both developed and developing countries. The study findings might help public health authorities to organize healthcare service in terms of this important demand.

Sunshine and suicide at the tropic of Capricorn, São Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2004

Several studies have confirmed seasonal variation in suicide rates according to hours of sunshine. The suicide pattern was assessed in São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, at the tropic of Capricorn from 1996 to 2004. Poisson regression was employed to estimate parameters of seasonality, as well as to verify associations for each day between daylight duration and suicide. During the nine-year study period, there were 3,984 suicides (76.9% in men; median age=38.7 years old). Seasonal averages of suicides were similar, as were monthly averages. Poisson regression did not reveal any association between suicide rates and hours of sunshine (p=0.45) for both sexes. In conclusion, no seasonal pattern was observed for suicides.

Leisure-time physical activity during pregnancy in the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: Physical activity during pregnancy is a poorly investigated subject on population level. The study aimed to describe duration, type and frequency of leisure-time physical activity during pregnancy, and to explore its associated factors. METHODS: A population-based study was carried out during 2004 in Southern Brazil. A total of 4,471 mothers were interviewed soon after delivery. Physical activity was measured using a questionnaire, developed for the study. Results were obtained by Poisson regression. RESULTS: In the sample, 14.8% of women reported to engage in some type of physical activity prior to pregnancy and 12.9% during pregnancy. In the first trimester, 10.4% of all mothers engaged in some type of physical activity; 8.5% in the second trimester and 6.5% in the third trimester. Only 194 mothers (4.3%) were active during the whole pregnancy. In the adjusted analysis, leisure-time physical activity was positively associated with schooling, physical activity advice during prenatal care, and family income (p<0.001), being employed during pregnancy (p=0.05), and number of pregnancies (p=0.02). Walking was the most frequent activity. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of leisure-time physical activity is low among Brazilian pregnant women. Although physical activity is not perceived as being pregnancy-threatening, and current guidelines recommend it, this population's behavior does not seem to be changing. Active lifestyle for both pregnant women and future mothers should be encouraged.

Effects of breastfeeding and sucking habits on malocclusion in a birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of malocclusion and to examine the effects of breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking habits on dentition in six-year-old children. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out nested into a birth cohort conducted in Pelotas, Southern Brazil, in 1999. A sample of 359 children was dentally examined and their mothers interviewed. Anterior open bite and posterior cross bite were recorded using the Foster & Hamilton criteria. Information regarding breastfeeding and non-nutritive sucking habits was collected at birth, in the first, third, sixth and 12th months of life, and at six years of age. Control variables included maternal schooling and child's birthweight, cephalic perimeter, and sex. Data were analyzed by Poisson regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of anterior open bite was 46.2%, and that of posterior cross bite was 18.2%. Non-nutritive sucking habits between 12 months and four years of age and digital sucking at age six years were the main risk factors for anterior open bite. Breastfeeding for less than nine months and regular use of pacifier between age 12 months and four years were risk factors for posterior cross bite. Interaction between duration of breastfeeding and the use of pacifier was identified for posterior cross bite. CONCLUSIONS: Given that breastfeeding is a protective factor for other diseases of infancy, our findings indicate that the common risks approach is the most appropriate for the prevention of posterior cross bite in primary or initial mixed dentition.

Factors related to inadequate cervical cancer screening in two Brazilian state capitals

OBJECTIVE:To analyze factors associated with cervical cancer screening failure. METHODS:Population-based cross-sectional study with self-weighted two-stage cluster sampling conducted in the cities of Fortaleza (Northeastern Brazil) and Rio de Janeiro (Southeastern Brazil) in 2002. Subjects were women aged 25-59 years in the last three years prior to the study. Data were analyzed through Poisson regression using a hierarchical model. RESULTS: The proportion of women who did not undergo the Pap smear test in Fortaleza and Rio de Janeiro was 19.1% (95% CI: 16.1;22.1) and 16.5% (95% CI: 14.1;18.9), respectively. Higher prevalence ratios of cervical cancer screening failure in both cities were seen among women with low education and low per capita income, old age, unmarried, who never underwent mammography, clinical breast examination, and blood glucose and cholesterol level testing. Smokers also had lower screening rates compared to non-smoker women and this difference was only statistically significant in Rio de Janeiro. CONCLUSIONS:The study findings point to the need of intervention focusing particularly women in worse socioeconomic conditions and access to healthcare, old-aged and unmarried. Education activities must prioritize screening of asymptomatic women and early diagnosis for symptomatic women and access to adequate diagnostic methods and treatment should be provided.

Risk factors for cesarean section by category of health service

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the rate of cesarean section and differences in risk factors by category of health service, either public or private. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out including all pregnant women in labor admitted to hospitals in the city of Rio Grande, Southern Brazil, between January 1 and December 31, 2007. A pre-coded and pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect on social, demographic, obstetric and newborn care information. Two regression models were constructed: one for public users and the other one for private ones. Poisson regression was used in each model in the multivariate analysis. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each adjusted factor. RESULTS: The rate of cesarean section was 43% and 86% among public and private users. Sociodemographic factors and twin births have a more significant impact among public users as well as number of pregnancies (25% vs. 13% reduction in public and private users, respectively) and previous cesarean section (86% vs. 24% increase in public and private users, respectively). Prenatal care visits and hospital admissions affected the outcome only in women users of public services. CONCLUSIONS: Cesarean section rates were high in both groups studied, but it was twice as high among women cared in the private sector. Associated factors differ in magnitude by category of service used.

Growth patterns in early childhood and the onset of menarche before age twelve

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between growth patterns in early childhood and the onset of menarche before age 12. METHODS: The study included 2,083 women from a birth cohort study conducted in the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, starting in 1982. Anthropometric, behavioral, and pregnancy-related variables were collected through home interviews. Statistical analyses were performed using Pearson's chi-square and chi-square test for linear trends. A multivariable analysis was carried out using Poisson regression based on a hierarchical model. RESULTS: Mean age of menarche was 12.4 years old and the prevalence of menarche before age 12 was 24.3%. Higher weight-for-age, height-for-age, and weight-for-height z-scores at 19.4 and 43.1 months of age were associated with linear tendencies of increased prevalence and relative risks of the onset of menarche before age 12. Girls who experienced rapid growth in weight-for-age z-score from birth to 19.4 months of age and in weight-for-age or height-for-age z-scores from 19.4 to 43.1 months of age also showed higher risk of menarche before age 12. Higher risk was seen when rapid growth in weight-for-age z-score was seen during these age intervals and the highest risk was found among those in the first tertile of Williams' curve at birth. Rapid growth in weight-for-height z-score was not associated with menarche before age 12. CONCLUSIONS: Menarche is affected by nutritional status and growth patterns during early childhood. Preventing overweight and obesity during early childhood and keeping a "normal" growth pattern seem crucial for the prevention of health conditions during adulthood.

Prevalence and correlates of physical activity among adolescents from Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and identify correlates of physical activity among adolescents. METHODS: Cross-sectional study nested within a cohort of 4,325 subjects from the city of Pelotas, Southern Brazil, aged 14-15 years in 2008. Physical activity was analyzed using three different approaches: (1) prevalence of any leisure-time physical activity; (2) prevalence of any active commuting to school; and (3) prevalence of engaging in at least 300 minutes per week of both (1) and (2) combined. Independent variables included sociodemographic, behavioral, social, and biological characteristics, and number of different leisure-time physical activites practiced. Statistical analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The proportion of adolescents involved in any type of leisure-time physical activity was 75.6%, while 73.4% displayed some form of active commuting to school. Prevalence of total physical activity score (> 300 min/week) was 48.2%, being greater among boys (62.6%) than among girls (34.5%). Furthermore, prevalence increased along with the number of physical activity modalities practiced (p<0.001). Factors associated with greater physical activity (leisure + commuting) at the recommended levels were: nonwhite skin color, having failed at school, and playing videogames. Lower socioeconomic status, more time spent on the computer, and parental physical activity were associated with the outcome only among girls. CONCLUSIONS: Less than half the adolescents reached recommended levels of physical activity, and this proportion tended to decrease among subjects with higher socioeconomic level. Associated factors were different for leisure-time and commuting. Engaging in a wide variety of physical activities should be encouraged already during childhood.

Patterns of deliveries in a Brazilian birth cohort: almost universal cesarean sections for the better-off

OBJECTIVE: To describe the patterns of deliveries in a birth cohort and to compare vaginal and cesarean section deliveries. METHODS: All children born to mothers from the urban area of Pelotas, Brazil, in 2004, were recruited for a birth cohort study. Mothers were contacted and interviewed during their hospital stay when extensive information on the gestation, the birth and the newborn, along with maternal health history and family characteristics was collected. Maternal characteristics and childbirth care financing - either private or public healthcare (SUS) patients - were the main factors investigated along with a description of C-sections distribution according to day of the week and delivery time. Standard descriptive techniques, Χ² tests for comparing proportions and Poisson regression to explore the independent effect of C-section predictors were the methods used. RESULTS: The overall C-section rate was 45%, 36% among SUS and 81% among private patients, where 35% of C-sections were reported elective. C-sections were more frequent on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, reducing by about a third on Sundays, while normal deliveries had a uniform distribution along the week. Delivery time for C-sections was markedly different among public and private patients. Maternal schooling was positively associated with C-section among SUS patients, but not among private patients. CONCLUSIONS: C-sections were almost universal among the wealthier mothers, and strongly related to maternal education among SUS patients. The patterns we describe are compatible with the idea that C-sections are largely done to suit the doctor's schedule. Drastic action is called for to change the current situation.

Factors associated to medicine use among children from the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort (Brazil)

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated to medicine use among children from the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort, Brazil. METHODS: Prospective study to evaluate medicine use in children aged 3, 12 and 24 months regardless of the reasons, therapeutic indication or class. The study included 3,985 children followed up at three months of age, 3,907 at 12 months, and 3,868 at the last follow-up time of 24 months. Mothers were interviewed to collect information on medicine use during the recall period of 15 days prior to the interview. The outcome was studied according to sociodemographic and perinatal variables, mother's perception of child's health and breastfeeding status. Crude and adjusted analyses were performed by Poisson regression following a hierarchical model. RESULTS: The prevalence of medicine use ranged from 55% to 65% in the three follow-ups. After controlling for confounders, some variables remained associated to medicine use only at the three-month follow-up with greatest use among children of younger mothers, those children who had intrapartum complications, low birthweight, were never breastfed and were admitted to a hospital. Greatest medicine use was also associated with being a firstborn child at 3 and 12 months; mother's perception of their child health as fair or poor and children whose mothers have private health insurance at 12 and 24 months; highest maternal education level at all follow-up times. CONCLUSIONS: Different variables influence medicine use among children during the first two years of life and they change as the child ages especially maternal factors and those associated to the child's health problems.

Association between tooth loss and obesity in Brazilian adults: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between tooth loss and general and central obesity among adults. METHODS: Population-based cross-sectional study with 1,720 adults aged 20 to 59 years from Florianópolis, Southern Brazil. Home interviews were performed and anthropometric measures were taken. Information on sociodemographic data, self-reported diabetes, self-reported number of teeth, central obesity (waist circumference [WC] > 88 cm in women and > 102 cm in men) and general obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 30 kg/m²) was collected. We used multivariable Poisson regression models to assess the association between general and central obesity and tooth loss after controlling for confounders. We also performed simple and multiple linear regressions by using BMI and WC as continuous variables. Interaction between age and tooth loss was also assessed. RESULTS: The mean BMI was 25.9 kg/m² (95%CI 25.6;26.2) in men and 25.4 kg/m2 (95%CI 25.0;25.7) in women. The mean WC was 79.3 cm (95%CI 78.4;80.1) in men and 88.4 cm (95%CI 87.6;89.2) in women. A positive association was found between the presence of less than 10 teeth in at least one arch and increased mean BMI and WC after adjusting for education level, self-reported diabetes, gender and monthly per capita income. However, this association was lost when the variable age was included in the model. The prevalence of general obesity was 50% higher in those with less than 10 teeth in at least one arch when compared with those with 10 or more teeth in both arches after adjusting for education level, self-reported diabetes and monthly per capita family income. However, the statistical significance was lost after controlling for age. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity was associated with number of teeth, though it depended on the participants' age groups.