Inflation bias: an appraisal

This short paper offers a brief appraisal of the conventional inflation bias and Cukierman's new inflation bias. It may also be seen that a lack of equilibrium in the balance of payments represents another reason for the emergence of the inflationary bias in an economy.

O dólar e os desequilíbrios globais

The global expansion of capitalism under American hegemony in the second half of the 20th century has changed the international division of labor and center-periphery scheme proposed under British hegemony. Under the new international division of labor, the United States is forced to generate an ever growing deficit in their trade account in order to accommodate the "mercantilist' expansion of Asian countries, produced by the trans-nationalization of big capital, under American aegis. This form of global economic articulation is at the root of the rupture of the Bretton Woods system and the growing financial liberalization imposed by the hegemonic power over other countries since the 80s.

Uma contribuição ao debate em torno da eficácia da política monetária e algumas implicações para o caso do Brasil

A contribution to the debate on the efficacy of monetary policy and some implications in the case of Brazil. The main opposition between Keynesian and Classic monetary theories is defined by the former's proposition of money non-neutrality in the long period. According to Keynes, it is not possible to describe a monetary economy's long period position without first specifying the monetary policy it is adopting. The policy is described by the choice of the short-term interest rate which exerts an important determining influence on the long term rate and, therefore, on real investment decisions. Based on this reasoning, inflation target monetary policy regimes are criticized, in particular the one adopted in post-1999 balance of payments crisis Brazil because of its deleterious impact on investment and growth.

From semi-stagnation to growth in a sino-centric market

According to recent available information, the Brazilian economy may be entering a cycle of sustained growth. The dominant current interpretation points to the progresses made in terms of monetary stability, Balance of Payments and structural reforms. Indeed, without monetary stability and the commercial opening of the economy, investments would not be increasing and credit growth would not be helping the emergence of millions of new consumers. But these achievements should be taken as generally conditioning, rather than actually shaping the new picture. Some unexpected (not rarely positive) consequences of overcoming the long enduring semi-stagnation, the emergence of China as a major player, and its consequences on the necessary re-structuring of the Brazilian industry, seem to be decisive in the present day redefinition of the Brazilian GDP growth potential.

Resuming growth in Latin America: short and long term policies

The authors of this paper assert that the paralysis of the state generated by the crises of the 1970s and 1980s deprived the economies of the region of an important lever to resume and sustain growth. They thus maintain that to overcome stagnation it will be necessary to reconstruct the state's capacity to implement pro-growth policies. Following Keynes and Kalecki's ideas, but also classical development economists, the authors argue, first, that short-term macroeconomic policies, to reduce unemployment and to increase the degree of capacity utilization, should be used to promote the generation of profits to firms and to wake up entrepreneurs' animal spirits. Short-term expansionary policies should be coupled with measures to improve competitiveness and avoid balance of payments problems. They also claim that alternatives to the liberal programme will fail unless a pro-growth strategy is adopted which includes both short- and long-term policies. They thus propose that long-term policies must complete the package, signaling: a) sustained increases of effective demand in the future; and b) investment priorities to ensure that capacities will be created in strategic sectors and branches of the economy.

China: estabilidade e crescimento econômico

China: stability and economic growth. China experienced an extraordinary economic growth since 1978, while keeping inflation low. Which are the main determinants for this performance and to what point has macroeconomic policy been responsible? Obviously, many factors have been important although none of them may be appointed as the sole determinant. The paper also argues whether China would be able to keep this pace of growth or will slow down, like many other Asian countries. It is argued that China will maintain her average rate of growth in the near future.

Crescimento econômico e liquidez externa no Brasil após 1970

Economic growth and foreign liquidity in Brazil after 1970. This paper assesses the relationship between the capital account and the Brazilian economic growth according to balance-of-payments constraint approach. The Thirlwall (1979)'s simple rule is extended to take into consideration capital account and several empirical evidence using time series analysis are shown. Conversely to the simple rule when fitted rates of balance-of-payment equilibrium economic growth average bellow the observed ones, fitted rates of growth using the rule extended to international liquidity are consistently greater than the observed ones. It is fair to conclude that, first, the Brazilian economy grows better during abundant international liquidity and, second, the economy sub utilizes such advantage growing far less than it could grow.

Reciprocidade implícita e crescimento na economia internacional: uma perspectiva estruturalista

Implicit reciprocity and growth in the international economy: a structuralist perspective. This paper discusses some of the structuralist ideas about international coordination and growth in an international system formed by countries whose productive structures and technological capabilities are strongly asymmetric. These ideas are formalized taking as a point of departure the Keynesian Balance-of-Payments constrained growth model with two countries. To this model is added a function (based on the catching up literature) in which the income elasticity of the demand for exports and imports depends on the technology gap. The model allows for discussing the inter-relations between the fiscal and the industrial and technological policies. It also allows for finding the rate of growth of autonomous expenditure in the periphery which ensures that it will use all the foreign exchange it earns in promoting economic growth (the principle of "automatic reciprocity").

Os pilares institucionais da política cambial e a industrialização nos anos 1930

The Institutional pillars of the foreign exchange policy and industrialization in Brazil in the 1930s. The 1930s constitute one milestone in the Brazilian economic development, as the accelerated industrialization process has started and became the dominant domestic policy. This paper reviews this period focusing on the institutional changes restructuring exchange transactions, to curb financial flows and balance external payments

Competitividade e restrição externa na Zona do Euro

The recent debt crisis in Greece, Ireland and Portugal has exposed the fragility existing in the Eurozone for promoting development and economic convergence between the countries that have adopted the currency. Way beyond the fear of insolvency, what is observed is a growing disparity of the most-developed countries in comparison to the less-developed ones, with perverse consequences for the last ones. Once the nominal exchange rates are fixed, the divergent movements in relative prices and wages between the countries have led to totally distinct paths for the real exchange rates. Worsening the scenario, one can observe the incompleteness of the political union, the monetarist focus of the ECB and the lack of labor mobility between the countries, what distances from the argument stated by the theory and puts in jeopardize the future of the Monetary Union.

A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura com elasticidades endógenas

This paper investigates a topic of the agenda about growth models, emphasizing the elaboration of an external constrained model with endogenous elasticity, with an emphasis on real exchange rate level as main tool for the economic development. The model is anchored in Kaldor, Thirlwall and Barbosa Filho's models and it will demonstrate that external constraint changes in the course of time.

Emerging markets and the international financial architecture: a blueprint for reform

If emerging markets are to achieve their objective of joining the ranks of industrialized, developed countries, they must use their economic and political influence to support radical change in the international financial system. This working paper recommends John Maynard Keynes's "clearing union" as a blueprint for reform of the international financial architecture that could address emerging market grievances more effectively than current approaches. Keynes's proposal for the postwar international system sought to remedy some of the same problems currently facing emerging market economies. It was based on the idea that financial stability was predicated on a balance between imports and exports over time, with any divergence from balance providing automatic financing of the debit countries by the creditor countries via a global clearinghouse or settlement system for trade and payments on current account. This eliminated national currency payments for imports and exports; countries received credits or debits in a notional unit of account fixed to national currency. Since the unit of account could not be traded, bought, or sold, it would not be an international reserve currency. The credits with the clearinghouse could only be used to offset debits by buying imports, and if not used for this purpose they would eventually be extinguished; hence the burden of adjustment would be shared equally - credit generated by surpluses would have to be used to buy imports from the countries with debit balances. Emerging market economies could improve upon current schemes for regionally governed financial institutions by using this proposal as a template for the creation of regional clearing unions using a notional unit of account.