46 resultados para OPTIMAL ESTIMATES OF STABILITY REGION
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.
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Introduction Knowledge of blood donor characteristics is essential to better guide clinical and serological screening for hemotherapy. The objective of this study was to determine the syphilis seroprevalence and the associated factors of blood donors in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Methods This population-based study from the State of Santa Catarina used information obtained from blood donation records. We analyzed 83,396 blood donor records generated from donors who were considered eligible to donate between January and August 2010. The aim of the study was to estimate the syphilis seroprevalence and its relationship with educational level, age, gender, geographical region and having donated blood in the past 12 months. We used descriptive analyses and a Poisson regression to calculate the prevalence ratios for the variables of interest. Results We found a 0.14% overall seroprevalence and significant differences among the following: first-time blood donors (0.19%) versus repeat donors (0.03% to 0.08%); low educational levels (0.30%) versus medium and high educational levels (0.08% to 0.19%); and donors who did not report their residence (0.88%) or age (6.94%) versus those who did. Increased syphilis seroprevalence was also significantly associated with increased age. Conclusion High syphilis seroprevalence was associated with lower educational level, age, first-time donation and the failure to provide age or residence information.
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Chlorophyll determination with a portable chlorophyll meter can indicate the period of highest N demand of plants and whether sidedressing is required or not. In this sense, defining the optimal timing of N application to common bean is fundamental to increase N use efficiency, increase yields and reduce the cost of fertilization. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the efficiency of N sufficiency index (NSI) calculated based on the relative chlorophyll index (RCI) in leaves, measured with a portable chlorophyll meter, as an indicator of time of N sidedressing fertilization and to verify which NSI (90 and 95 %) value is the most appropriate to indicate the moment of N fertilization of common bean cultivar Perola. The experiment was carried out in the rainy and dry growing seasons of the agricultural year 2009/10 on a dystroferric Red Nitosol, in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. The experiment was arranged in a randomized complete block design with five treatments, consisting of N managements (M1: 200 kg ha-1 N (40 kg at sowing + 80 kg 15 days after emergence (DAE) + 80 kg 30 DAE); M2: 100 kg ha-1 N (20 kg at sowing + 40 kg 15 DAE + 40 kg 30 DAE); M3: 20 kg ha-1 N at sowing + 30 kg ha-1 when chlorophyll meter readings indicated NSI < 95 %; M4: 20 kg ha-1 N at sowing + 30 kg ha-1 N when chlorophyll meter readings indicated NSI < 90 % and, M5: control (without N application)) and four replications. The variables RCI, aboveground dry matter, total leaf N concentration, production components, grain yield, relative yield, and N use efficiency were evaluated. The RCI correlated with leaf N concentrations. By monitoring the RCI with the chlorophyll meter, the period of N sidedressing of common bean could be defined, improving N use efficiency and avoiding unnecessary N supply to common bean. The NSI 90 % of the reference area was more efficient to define the moment of N sidedressing of common bean, to increase N use efficiency.
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The correct use of closed field chambers to determine N2O emissions requires defining the time of day that best represents the daily mean N2O flux. A short-term field experiment was carried out on a Mollisol soil, on which annual crops were grown under no-till management in the Pampa Ondulada of Argentina. The N2O emission rates were measured every 3 h for three consecutive days. Fluxes ranged from 62.58 to 145.99 ∝g N-N2O m-2 h-1 (average of five field chambers) and were negatively related (R² = 0.34, p < 0.01) to topsoil temperature (14 - 20 ºC). N2O emission rates measured between 9:00 and 12:00 am presented a high relationship to daily mean N2O flux (R² = 0.87, p < 0.01), showing that, in the study region, sampling in the mornings is preferable for GHG.
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Apparently, there are no custard apple cultivars defined for the northeastern region of Brazil. The establishment of breeding programs aimed at the selection of types from productive locations for later cloning is desirable. This work's objective was to evaluate the yield (during the first three crops) and quality (first crop) of fruits from 20 half-sibling custard apple tree progenies, selected from home orchards. An additional objective was to estimate genetic parameters for the traits evaluated. A micro sprinkling-irrigated experiment was conducted in Mossoró-RN, Brazil, as random blocks with five replications. In characteristics evaluated for periods longer than a year (diameter, height and mean weight of fruits, number of fruits ha-1 and fruit yield (kg ha-1), and a split-plot design was adopted, with progenies considered as plots and annual cropping seasons as subplots. The best progenies in terms of fruit yield (A3 and A4) are not necessarily the best for fruit dimensions and fruit mean weight (A2, FE4, JG1, JG2, SM1, SM7, and SM8). These progenies show great potential to be used in future studies on crosses or on vegetative propagation. In this regard, progeny JG2 should be highlighted as promising in terms of yield and fruit size. The progenies are not different with regard to percentages (in relation to mean fruit mass) of pericarp, endocarp, seeds, and receptacle, in the fruit, and fruit volume, number of seeds/fruit, and total soluble solids content in the fruit pulp, but progeny FE4 presents higher total titratable acidity in the fruit pulp. Narrow-sense heritability estimates were relatively high for all characteristics in which there was variability between progenies, with higher values for number of fruits ha-1 (80 %) and fruit yield (78 %). Relatively high coefficients of genotypic variation (around 20%) were observed for number of fruits ha-1 and fruit yield, with lower values for the other characteristics. There were positive genotypic and phenotypic correlations between fruit diameter (FD) and fruit height, FD and mean fruit weight, and number of fruits ha-1 and fruit yield.
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Existing studies on global sourcing strategy have implicitly adopted a cJosed-systems perspective in which sourcing activities are managed within a multinational company across national boundaries. Produd and process innovations and components procurement that are jointly managed by a consortium of cooperating firms have not been examined. In this paper, we empiricallyexamine the issues concerning sourcing partnerships in an open-systems perspective. Findings suggest that even in a sourcing partnership arrangement with a foreign supplier, the principal firm's ability to procure and control the supply of major components has a positive bearing on its market performance.
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INTRODUCTION: Brazil has been called a nation in nutrition transitional because of recent increases in the prevalence of obesity and related chronic diseases. With overweight conditions already prevalent among middle-income populations, there exists a need to identify factors that influence nutrition behavior within this group. OBJECTIVE: To address this subject, a research study was implemented among middle-class adolescents attending a large private secondary school in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. The study determined the availability and accessibility of snack foods as well as subjects attitudes and preferences towards, and the influence of family and friends on healthy (high-nutrient density) snack choices. METHODS: The 4-stage process included: (a) a nutrition expert focus group discussion that reported local nutrition problems in general and factors related to adolescent nutrition, (b) an adolescent pilot survey (n=63) that solicited information about snacking preferences and habits as well as resources for nutrition information and snack money; (c) a survey of various area food market sources to determine the availability and accessibility of high nutrient density snacks; and (d) a follow-up adolescent survey (n=55) that measured snack food preferences and perceptions about their cost and availability. RESULTS: Results included the finding that, although affordable high nutrient density snacks were available, preferences for low nutrient density snacks prevailed. The adolescents were reportedly more likely to be influenced by and obtain nutrition information from family members than friends. CONCLUSION: From study results it is apparent that a focus on food availability will not automatically result in proper nutritional practices among adolescents. This fact and the parental influence detected are evidence of a need to involve adolescents and their parents in nutrition education campaigns to improve adolescent snack food choices.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the behavior of induced abortion as a function of certain demographic variables, for the population of fertile women (15 to 49 years old) residing in the Vila Madalena subdistrict S. Paulo (Brazil). MATERIAL AND METHOD: Two population samples were selected. One sample, with 996 women, investigated the incidence of induced abortions during 1987, using the RRT. In the other, involving 1,004 women, the same information was detected through a conventional approach. In both samples, the induced abortion occurring during the reproductive life was recorded in direct fashion. Though this analysis refers only to information about past abortions, that is by 2,000 women -, it should be noted that it is exactly the RRT that lends credibility to the found or results given results. CONCLUSION: The analysis furnishes evidence showing that single women, young women between the ages of 15 and 19, women who have not had live births, women who have a number of children below the expected ideal, women who use contraceptive methods (especially inefficient ones) and women who do not have any restrictions as to abortion constitute the categories most inclined to resort to induced abortion. This grouping suggests the existence of interrelationships between categories, that is, each of these categories is probably composed primarily of the same women, those who are at the beginning of their reproductive lives.
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Some viruses of the families Retroviridae, such as Human T Lymphotropic Virus (HTLV); Herpesviridae as the Cytomegalovirus (CMV) and Hepadnaviridae such as the Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) are liable to be co-transmitted with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Since prisoners are exposed to several and important risk factors involved in the transmission of HIV and the above mentioned viruses, male inmates from the penitentiary complex of Campinas, SP, Brazil, including HIV + and HIV - ones, were examined for the presence of HTLV-I and/or II antibodies; IgG and IgM anti-CMV antibodies, and the research of the superficial hepatitis B antigen (HBsAg). The presence of anti-HTLV-I and/or II was determined by the Western Blot (WB) technique, whereas IgG and IgM anti-CMV and the search of HBsAg were carried out by the Microparticle Enzyme Immunoassay (MEIA-Abbott Lab).With regard to anti-HTLV-I and/or II, 58.3% (14/24-Number of positive reactions/number of sera examined) were reactive among the anti-HIV positive sera. Conversely, only 12.5% (3/24) among the HIV- negative sera showed positive reactions to HTLV-I and/or II antibodies. When looking for IgG anti-CMV percentages of 97.7% (43/44) and 95% (38/40) were obtained for anti-HIV positive and negative sera, respectively. As to IgM anti-CMV antibodies 11.36% (5/44) and 2.5% (1/40) of reactive sera were found for anti-HIV positive and negative, respectively. The HBsAg was found in 12.8% (5/39) of the sera which were anti-HIV positive.
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An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.
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Six hundred and ninety three male inmates from three penitentiaries, two (A and B) maximum-security systems and one (C) minimum-security facility, located in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil were studied for the presence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies, using a cross-sectional design. The search for anti-HIV antibodies in 693 samples of sera collected was carried out by two serological tests: (a) the Microparticle enzyme immunoassay-HIV-1 and HIV-2 (MEIA) (Abbott Laboratories) and (b) the Western Blot-HIV-1 (WB) (Cambridge Biotech Corporation) to confirm positive results with MEIA. Sera reactivity for HIV antibodies was 14.4%. The highest frequency of anti-HIV antibodies was found in the A and B maximum-security prisons: 17% and 21.5%, respectively. In prison C, the frequency of reagents was 10.9%. Seventy three inmates, initially negative in the MEIA test, were checked again five and seven months later. Three of them, all from the maximum-security facilities, became reactive in the MEIA test, with confirmation in the WB, suggesting that serological conversion had occurred after imprisonment.
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Lutzomyia umbratilis, a known vector of Leishmania guyanensis in the north of Amazon basin, has been exclusively found in the Amazonian region. Here we report for the first time the occurrence of this species in northeastern Brazil. The epidemiological importance of the occurrence of this species in the Atlantic Forest is commented.
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Biomphalaria glabrata snails are major hosts for the digenetic trematoda Schistosoma mansoni, the causative agent of human schistosomiasis. The success or failure of the infection will be dependent on the mobilization of the molluskan internal defense system, where a major role will be played by circulating hemocytes produced by the APO (amebocyte-producing organ) of the snail. In this report, the primary culture of the APO region of B. glabrata was obtained for the first time, as well as a control culture of the ovotestis. Three different cell populations migrated easily from the explants in culture, with no need of any dispersion agent. The cells grew in suspension at an incubation temperature of 15ºC and the cultures were maintained viable for up to two weeks. Two of these cell populations obtained resembled cell types known to be present in the hemolymph of Biomphalaria. The availability of APO cells in culture may contribute to a better understanding of the internal defense in mollusks, in general, as well as the specific response of B. glabrata to S. mansoni infection.
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The Program for Schistosomiasis Control within the Unified Health System (PCE-SUS) was implemented by 1999 in the Rainforest Zone or "Zona da Mata" of Pernambuco (ZMP) aiming to carry out biennial stool surveys of whole populations through municipal health organs followed by treatment of the positives through the local units of the Family Health Program (PSF). Yearly reports from the Health Department of Pernambuco State (SES/PE) from 2002 to 2004 on the PCE-SUS surveys were assessed to evaluate whether the current estimates of prevalence in the municipalities of the ZMP are based on reliable samples so as to allow considerations on the real situation of schistosomiasis in that area. The surveys carried out in that period did not follow the major principles underlying sampling design, thus posing problems in both precision and validity of the estimates. Only 12 out of 43 municipalities had minimally reliable estimates: five with moderate prevalence (10-50%) and seven with low prevalence (< 10%). Surveys with appropriate sampling procedures aimed either at representative target groups (school-aged children) or communities are recommended for the ZMP and other endemic areas not only to provide reliable information on the current situation of schistosomiasis but also to plan adequate control strategies.
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Under natural environmental conditions, blowflies utilize discrete and ephemeral feeding resources such as decaying carcasses. Competition for food on such feeding substrates is usually very severe, and only the individuals that are capable of attaining the critical larval weight for pupation will be able to survive. This critical weight is hitherto unknown for several blowfly species; therefore, the current work is aimed at obtaining such a critical value for four blowfly species of the genera Chrysomya and Lucilia, deploying two types of feeding substrate, namely, artificial diet and macerated bovine meat. On the whole, the critical weights ranged from 30 to 35 mg. The lowest larval weight which permitted pupation was 30.0 mg for Chrysomya megacephala reared on macerated bovine meat. This species was also the best adapted to pupation at low larval weights in relation to the maximum larval weight for males. Regarding the pupation of females, the best-adapted individual was a C. albiceps specimen exhibiting a critical weight that was equal to 39.20 % of the maximum value obtained. Concerning all the species and diet types, the female individuals exhibited the lowest critical weights that produced viable pupae, probably representing an evolutionary strategy that favoured the survival of females, responsible for the egg formation, contributing to the establishment of future generations. Regarding the loss (in percentage) of adult biomass in relation to the third instar larvae, the females of C. megacephala lost less weight than males in both feeding substrates. On the other hand, such a loss of weight occurred in males of C. albiceps and L. cuprina.