UM OUTRO OLHAR SOBRE A EFICIÊNCIA DOS MERCADOS: O CASO DAS BOLSAS DE APOSTAS DE TÊNIS

RESUMONeste artigo investiga-se a eficiência do principal mercado de apostas de tênis em nível mundial com recurso a uma base de dados original proveniente da bolsa de apostas Betfair. Em geral, os resultados mostram que os preços constituíram uma boa previsão do resultado final das partidas. Apesar disso, existem evidências de que os apostadores sub-reagem à informação (o que é consistente com os enviesamentos de conservadorismo e de ancoragem) e de que atribuem uma probabilidade demasiada elevada de ganho aos jogadores que estejam dominando a partida (consistente com o enviesamento de representatividade). Foram encontradas várias estratégias de aposta lucrativas, o que coloca em questão a eficiência do mercado de apostas analisado.

Association between child-care and acute diarrhea: a study in Portuguese children

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the influence of the type of child-care on the occurrence of acute diarrhea with special emphasis on the effect of children grouping during care. METHODS: From October 1998 to January 1999 292 children, aged 24 to 36 months, recruited using a previously assembled cohort of newborns, were evaluated. Information on the type of care and occurrence of diarrhea in the previous year was obtained from parents by telephone interview. The X² and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to compare proportions and quantitative variables, respectively. The risk of diarrhea was estimated through the calculation of incident odds ratios (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), crude and adjusted by unconditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Using as reference category children cared individually at home, the adjusted ORs for diarrhea occurrence were 3.18, 95% CI [1.49, 6.77] for children cared in group at home, 2.28, 95% CI [0.92, 5.67] for children cared in group in day-care homes and 2.54, 95% CI [1.21, 5.33] for children cared in day-care centers. Children that changed from any other type of child-care setting to child-care centers in the year preceding the study showed a risk even higher (OR 7.65, 95% CI [3.25, 18.02]). CONCLUSIONS: Group care increases the risk of acute diarrhea whatsoever the specific setting.

Low prevalence of hypertension with pharmacological treatments and associated factors

OBJECTIVE: To assess the determinants of the lack of pharmacological treatment for hypertension. METHODS: In 2005, 3,323 Mozambicans aged 25-64 years old were evaluated. Blood pressure, weight, height and smoking status were assessed following the Stepwise Approach to Chronic Disease Risk Factor Surveillance. Hypertensives (systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg and/or antihypertensive drug therapy) were evaluated for awareness of their condition, pharmacological and non-pharmacological management, as well as use of herbal or traditional remedies. Prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated, adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors and non-pharmacological treatment. RESULTS: Most of the hypertensive subjects (92.3%), and nearly half of those aware of their condition were not treated pharmacologically. Among the aware, the prevalence of untreated hypertension was higher in men {PR = 1.61; 95% confidence interval (95%CI 1.10;2.36)} and was lower in subjects under non-pharmacological treatment (PR = 0.58; 95%CI 0.42;0.79); there was no significant association with traditional treatments (PR = 0.75; 95%CI 0.44;1.26). CONCLUSIONS: The lack of pharmacological treatment for hypertension was more frequent in men, and was not influenced by the presence of other cardiovascular risk factors; it could not be explained by the use of alternative treatments as herbal/traditional medicines or non-pharmacological management. It is important to understand the reasons behind the lack of management of diagnosed hypertension and to implement appropriate corrective actions to reduce the gap in the access to healthcare between developed and developing countries.