Analysis and estimative of schistosomiasis prevalence for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using multiple regression with social and environmental spatial data

The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.

BEM/FEM non-linear model applied to transient analysis with viscous damping

In this article a two-dimensional transient boundary element formulation based on the mass matrix approach is discussed. The implicit formulation of the method to deal with elastoplastic analysis is considered, as well as the way to deal with viscous damping effects. The time integration processes are based on the Newmark rhoand Houbolt methods, while the domain integrals for mass, elastoplastic and damping effects are carried out by the well known cell approximation technique. The boundary element algebraic relations are also coupled with finite element frame relations to solve stiffened domains. Some examples to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed formulation are also presented.

Non-linear analysis of laminated metal matrix composites by an integrated micro/macro-mechanical model

The present paper describes an integrated micro/macro mechanical study of the elastic-viscoplastic behavior of unidirectional metal matrix composites (MMC). The micromechanical analysis of the elastic moduli is based on the Composites Cylinder Assemblage model (CCA) with comparisons also draw with a Representative Unit Cell (RUC) technique. These "homogenization" techniques are later incorporated into the Vanishing Fiber Diameter (VFD) model and a new formulation is proposed. The concept of a smeared element procedure is employed in conjunction with two different versions of the Bodner and Partom elastic-viscoplastic constitutive model for the associated macroscopic analysis. The formulations developed are also compared against experimental and analytical results available in the literature.

Non-Linear Unsteady Aerodynamic Response Approximation Using Multi-Layer Functionals

Non-linear functional representation of the aerodynamic response provides a convenient mathematical model for motion-induced unsteady transonic aerodynamic loads response, that accounts for both complex non-linearities and time-history effects. A recent development, based on functional approximation theory, has established a novel functional form; namely, the multi-layer functional. For a large class of non-linear dynamic systems, such multi-layer functional representations can be realised via finite impulse response (FIR) neural networks. Identification of an appropriate FIR neural network model is facilitated by means of a supervised training process in which a limited sample of system input-output data sets is presented to the temporal neural network. The present work describes a procedure for the systematic identification of parameterised neural network models of motion-induced unsteady transonic aerodynamic loads response. The training process is based on a conventional genetic algorithm to optimise the network architecture, combined with a simplified random search algorithm to update weight and bias values. Application of the scheme to representative transonic aerodynamic loads response data for a bidimensional airfoil executing finite-amplitude motion in transonic flow is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. The approach is shown to furnish a satisfactory generalisation property to different motion histories over a range of Mach numbers in the transonic regime.

On non-ideal and non-linear portal frame dynamics analysis using bogoliubov averaging method

We apply the Bogoliubov Averaging Method to the study of the vibrations of an elastic foundation, forced by a Non-ideal energy source. The considered model consists of a portal plane frame with quadratic nonlinearities, with internal resonance 1:2, supporting a direct current motor with limited power. The non-ideal excitation is in primary resonance in the order of one-half with the second mode frequency. The results of the averaging method, plotted in time evolution curve and phase diagrams are compared to those obtained by numerically integrating of the original differential equations. The presence of the saturation phenomenon is verified by analytical procedures.

Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease, Metabolic Syndrome and Sleepiness in Truck Drivers

Abstract Background: Truck driver sleepiness is a primary cause of vehicle accidents. Several causes are associated with sleepiness in truck drivers. Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are associated with sleep disorders and with primary risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). We analyzed the relationship between these conditions and prevalence of sleepiness in truck drivers. Methods: We analyzed the major risk factors for CVD, anthropometric data and sleep disorders in 2228 male truck drivers from 148 road stops made by the Federal Highway Police from 2006 to 2011. Alcohol consumption, illicit drugs and overtime working hours were also analyzed. Sleepiness was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. Results: Mean age was 43.1 ± 10.8 years. From 2006 to 2011, an increase in neck (p = 0.011) and abdominal circumference (p < 0.001), total cholesterol (p < 0.001), triglyceride plasma levels (p = 0.014), and sleepiness was observed (p < 0.001). In addition, a reduction in hypertension (39.6% to 25.9%, p < 0.001), alcohol consumption (32% to 23%, p = 0.033) and overtime hours (52.2% to 42.8%, p < 0.001) was found. Linear regression analysis showed that sleepiness correlated closely with body mass index (β = 0.19, Raj2 = 0.659, p = 0.031), abdominal circumference (β = 0.24, Raj2 = 0.826, p = 0.021), hypertension (β = -0.62, Raj2 = 0.901, p = 0.002), and triglycerides (β = 0.34, Raj2 = 0.936, p = 0.022). Linear multiple regression indicated that hypertension (p = 0.008) and abdominal circumference (p = 0.025) are independent variables for sleepiness. Conclusions: Increased prevalence of sleepiness was associated with major components of the MetS.

Local-scale spatial variation in diversity of social wasps in an Amazonian rain forest in Caxiuanã, Pará, Brazil (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

Polistine wasps are important in Neotropical ecosystems due to their ubiquity and diversity. Inventories have not adequately considered spatial attributes of collected specimens. Spatial data on biodiversity are important for study and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts over natural ecosystems and for protecting species. We described and analyzed local-scale spatial patterns of collecting records of wasp species, as well as spatial variation of diversity descriptors in a 2500-hectare area of an Amazon forest in Brazil. Rare species comprised the largest fraction of the fauna. Close range spatial effects were detected for most of the more common species, with clustering of presence-data at short distances. Larger spatial lag effects could also be identified in some species, constituting probably cases of exogenous autocorrelation and candidates for explanations based on environmental factors. In a few cases, significant or near significant correlations were found between five species (of Agelaia, Angiopolybia, and Mischocyttarus) and three studied environmental variables: distance to nearest stream, terrain altitude, and the type of forest canopy. However, association between these factors and biodiversity variables were generally low. When used as predictors of polistine richness in a linear multiple regression, only the coefficient for the forest canopy variable resulted significant. Some level of prediction of wasp diversity variables can be attained based on environmental variables, especially vegetation structure. Large-scale landscape and regional studies should be scheduled to address this issue.

Wheat Yield Loss in a Two Species Competition with Emex australis and Emex spinosa

Emex australis and E. spinosa are significant weed species in wheat and other crops. Information on the extent of competition of the Emex species will be helpful to access yield losses in wheat. Field experiments were conducted to quantify the interference of tested weed densities each as single or mixture of both at 1:1 on their growth and yield, wheat yield components and wheat grain yield losses in two consecutive years. Dry weight of both weed species increased from 3-6 g m-2 with every additional plant of weed, whereas seed number and weight per plant decreased with increasing density of either weed. Both weed species caused considerable decrease in yield components like spike bearing tillers, number of grains per spike, 1000-grain weight of wheat with increasing density population of the weeds. Based on non-linear hyperbolic regression model equation, maximum yield loss at asymptotic weed density was estimated to be 44 and 62% with E. australis, 56 and 70% with E. spinosa and 63 and 72% with mixture of both species at 1:1 during both year of study, respectively. It was concluded that E. spinosa has more competition effects on wheat crop as compared to E. australis.

Reference values for lung function tests: I. Static volumes

Static lung volume (LV) measurements have a number of clinical and research applications; however, no previous studies have provided reference values for such tests using a healthy sample of the adult Brazilian population. With this as our main purpose, we prospectively evaluated 100 non-smoking subjects (50 males and 50 females), 20 to 80 years old, randomly selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations were developed by multiple regression analysis with total lung capacity (TLC), functional residual capacity (FRC), residual volume (RV), RV/TLC ratio and inspiratory capacity (IC) as dependent variables, and with age, height, weight, lean body mass and indexes of physical fitness as independent ones. Simpler demographic and anthropometric variables were as useful as more complex measurements in predicting LV values, independent of gender and age (R2 values ranging from 0.49 to 0.78, P<0.001). Interestingly, prediction equations from North American and European studies overestimated the LV at low volumes and underestimated them at high volumes (P<0.05). Our results, therefore, provide a more appropriate frame of reference to evaluate the normalcy of static lung volume values in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80 years.

Reference values for lung function tests: II. Maximal respiratory pressures and voluntary ventilation

The strength of the respiratory muscles can be evaluated from static measurements (maximal inspiratory and expiratory pressures, MIP and MEP) or inferred from dynamic maneuvers (maximal voluntary ventilation, MVV). Although these data could be suitable for a number of clinical and research applications, no previous studies have provided reference values for such tests using a healthy, randomly selected sample of the adult Brazilian population. With this main purpose, we prospectively evaluated 100 non-smoking subjects (50 males and 50 females), 20 to 80 years old, selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations for MIP, MEP and MVV were developed by multiple regression analysis: age and, secondarily, anthropometric measurements explained up to 56% of the variability of the dependent variables. The most cited previous studies using either Caucasian or non-Caucasian samples systematically underestimated the observed values of MIP (P<0.05). Interestingly, the self-reported level of regular physical activity and maximum aerobic power correlates strongly with both respiratory and peripheral muscular strength (knee extensor peak torque) (P<0.01). Our results, therefore, provide a new frame of reference to evaluate the normalcy of some useful indexes of respiratory muscle strength in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80.

Reference values for lung function tests: III. Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (transfer factor)

Carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) or transfer factor (TLCO) is a particularly useful test of the appropriateness of gas exchange across the lung alveolocapillary membrane. With the purpose of establishing predictive equations for DLCO using a non-smoking sample of the adult Brazilian population, we prospectively evaluated 100 subjects (50 males and 50 females aged 20 to 80 years), randomly selected from more than 8,000 individuals. Gender-specific linear prediction equations were developed by multiple regression analysis with single breath (SB) absolute and volume-corrected (VA) DLCO values as dependent variables. In the prediction equations, age (years) and height (cm) had opposite effects on DLCOSB (ml min-1 mmHg-1), independent of gender (-0.13 (age) + 0.32 (height) - 13.07 in males and -0.075 (age) + 0.18 (height) + 0.20 in females). On the other hand, height had a positive effect on DLCOSB but a negative one on DLCOSB/VA (P<0.01). We found that the predictive values from the most cited studies using predominantly Caucasian samples were significantly different from the actually measured values (P<0.05). Furthermore, oxygen uptake at maximal exercise (VO2max) correlated highly to DLCOSB (R = 0.71, P<0.001); this variable, however, did not maintain an independent role to explain the VO2max variability in the multiple regression analysis (P>0.05). Our results therefore provide an original frame of reference for either DLCOSB or DLCOSB/VA in Brazilian males and females aged 20 to 80 years, obtained from the standardized single-breath technique.

The epidemiologic paradox of low birth weight in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the low birth weight (LBW) paradox exists in Brazil. METHODS: LBW and cesarean section rates between 1995 and 2007 were estimated based on data from SINASC (Brazilian Live Births Database). Infant mortality rates (IMRs) were obtained using an indirect method that correct for underreporting. Schooling information was obtained from census data. Trends in LBW rate were assessed using joinpoint regression models. The correlations between LBW rate and other indicators were graphically assessed by lowess regression and tested using Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: In Brazil, LBW rate trends were non-linear and non-significant: the rate dropped from 7.9% in 1995 to 7.7% in 2000, then increased to 8.2% in 2003 and remained nearly steady thereafter at 8.2% in 2007. However, trends varied among Brazilian regions: there were significant increases in the North from 1999 to 2003 (2.7% per year), and in the South (1.0% per year) and Central-West regions (0.6% per year) from 1995 to 2007. For the entire period studied, higher LBW and lower IMRs were seen in more developed compared to less developed regions. In Brazilian States, in 2005, the higher the IMR rate, the lower the LBW rate (p=0.009); the lower the low schooling rate, the lower the LBW rate (p=0.007); the higher the number of neonatal intensive care beds per 1,000 live births, the higher the LBW rate (p=0.036). CONCLUSIONS: The low birth weight paradox was seen in Brazil. LBW rate is increasing in some Brazilian regions. Regional differences in LBW rate seem to be more associated to availability of perinatal care services than underlying social conditions.

Influence of the support offered to breastfeeding by maternity hospitals

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the support offered by maternity hospitals is associated with higher prevalences of exclusive and predominant breastfeeding. METHODS This is a cross-sectional study including a representative sample of 916 infants less than six months who were born in maternity hospitals, in Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, 2011. The maternity hospitals were evaluated in relation to their fulfillment of the Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding. Data were collected regarding breastfeeding patterns, the birth hospital and other characteristics. The individualized effect of the study factor on exclusive and predominant breastfeeding was analyzed using Poisson multiple regression with robust variance. RESULTS Predominant breastfeeding tended to be more prevalent when the number of fulfilled steps was higher (p of linear trend = 0.057). The step related to not offering artificial teats or pacifiers to breastfed infants and that related to encouraging the establishment of breastfeeding support groups were associated, respectively, to a higher prevalence of exclusive (PR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.04;1.54) and predominant breastfeeding (PR = 1.55; 95%CI 1.01;2.39), after an adjustment was performed for confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS We observed a positive association between support offered by maternity hospitals and prevalences of exclusive and predominant breastfeeding. These results can be useful to other locations with similar characteristics (cities with hospitals that fulfill the Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding) to provide incentive to breastfeeding, by means of promoting, protecting and supporting breastfeeding in maternity hospitals.

Associations, causation and model in psychiatry

This paper discusses models, associations and causation in psychiatry. The different types of association (linear, positive, negative, exponential, partial, U shaped relationship, hidden and spurious) between variables involved in mental disorders are presented as well as the use of multiple regression analysis to disentangle interrelatedness amongst multiple variables. A useful model should have internal consistency, external validity and predictive power; be dynamic in order to accommodate new sound knowledge; and should fit facts rather than they other way around. It is argued that whilst models are theoretical constructs they also convey a style of reasoning and can change clinical practice. Cause and effect are complex phenomena in that the same cause can yield different effects. Conversely, the same effect can have a different range of causes. In mental disorders and human behaviour there is always a chain of events initiated by the indirect and remote cause; followed by intermediate causes; and finally the direct and more immediate cause. Causes of mental disorders are grouped as those: (i) which are necessary and sufficient; (ii) which are necessary but not sufficient; and (iii) which are neither necessary nor sufficient, but when present increase the risk for mental disorders.

Determinants of Functional and Structural Properties of Large Arteries in Healthy Individuals

Background: Changes in the properties of large arteries correlate with higher cardiovascular risk. Recent guidelines have included the assessment of those properties to detect subclinical disease. Establishing reference values for the assessment methods as well as determinants of the arterial parameters and their correlations in healthy individuals is important to stratify patients. Objective: To assess, in healthy adults, the distribution of the values of pulse wave velocity, diameter, intima-media thickness and relative distensibility of the carotid artery, in addition to assessing the demographic and clinical determinants of those parameters and their correlations. Methods: This study evaluated 210 individuals (54% women; mean age, 44 ± 13 years) with no evidence of cardiovascular disease. The carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was measured with a Complior® device. The functional and structural properties of the carotid artery were assessed by using radiofrequency ultrasound. Results: The means of the following parameters were: pulse wave velocity, 8.7 ± 1.5 m/s; diameter, 6,707.9 ± 861.6 μm; intima-media thickness, 601 ± 131 μm; relative distensibility, 5.3 ± 2.1%. No significant difference related to sex or ethnicity was observed. On multiple linear logistic regression, the factors independently related to the vascular parameters were: pulse wave velocity, to age (p < 0.01) and triglycerides (p = 0.02); intima-media thickness, to age (p < 0.01); diameter, to creatinine (p = 0.03) and age (p = 0.02); relative distensibility, to age (p < 0.01) and systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p = 0.02 and p = 0.01, respectively). Pulse wave velocity showed a positive correlation with intima media thickness (p < 0.01) and with relative distensibility (p < 0.01), while diameter showed a positive correlation with distensibility (p = 0.03). Conclusion: In healthy individuals, age was the major factor related to aortic stiffness, while age and diastolic blood pressure related to the carotid functional measure. The carotid artery structure was directly related to aortic stiffness, which was inversely related to the carotid artery functional property.