Um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação

A post-keynesian macro-dynamic model of simulation. The objective of this article is to present the structure and the simulation results of a one-sector macro-dynamic model that embeds some elements of the post-keynesian theory. The computational simulation of the model replicates some important features of capitalist dynamics as the phenomenon of cyclical growth, the long-run stability of the profit rate and functional distribution of income, the maintenance of idle-capacity in the long-run and the occurrence of a single episode of deep fall in real economic activity, which is in accordance with the rarity character of great crashes in the history of capitalism. Moreover, the simulation results show that a great reduction in inflation rate will be followed by an increase of financial fragility, increasing the like-hood of a great depression. As a policy advice derived from the simulation results, we can state that the Central Bank should never promote big reductions in inflation rate.

A new murine model of persistent lung eosinophilic inflammation

We summarize here the main characteristics of a novel model of pulmonary hypersensitivity. Mice were immunized with a subcutaneous implant of a fragment of heat solidified chicken egg white and 14 days later challenged with ovalbumin given either by aerosol or by intratracheal instillation. This procedure induces a persistent eosinophilic lung inflammation, a marked bone marrow eosinophilia, and Th2-type isotypic profile with histopathological findings that resemble human asthma. Further, this model is simple to perform, reproducible in different strains of mice, does not require adjuvants nor multiple boosters. Based on these characteristics we propose it as a suitable murine model of allergic eosinophilic lung inflammation.

Evaluation of a new mathematical model to describe Clostridium perfringens growth during the cooling of cooked ground beef

A mathematical model previously developed to study microbial growth in food products under an isothermal environment was adapted to a time-varying temperature regime. The resulting model was applied to study the growth of Clostridium perfringens in meat products. This micro-organism is of particular relevance to public health and economy due to the loss of productivity caused by it. Results showed a similar performance of the model used compared to the Baranyi model under an isothermal situation and a slightly better performance under a non-isothermal temperature profile.

The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the Brazilian experience

This paper attempts to explain why the Brazilian inter-bank interest rate is so high compared with rates practiced by other emerging economies. The interplay between the markets for bank reserves and government securities feeds into the inter-bank rate the risk premium of the Brazilian public debt.

Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting

This work aims at presenting the challenges that inflation targeting central banks may face since uncertainties represent a harmful element for the effectiveness of monetary policy, and since financial instabilities may disturb the transmission mechanisms - in particular, the expectation channel - and thus the economic stability. Financial stability must not be considered as a simple goal of monetary policy, but a precondition for central banks operate their policies and reach the goals of inflation and output stability. The work identifies different sources of uncertainties that surround central banks' decisions; and approaches the role that inflation targeting central banks should play according to some basic principles that can serve as useful guides for central banks to help them achieve successful outcomes in their conduct of monetary policy.

Metas inflacionárias: a análise convencional e um modelo alternativo

Inflation targeting: the conventional analysis and an alternative model. This article has two aims: the first one is to present a formal model of the monetary policy identified generally as "inflation targeting policy", an instrument of intervention of the central bank, through the short run nominal interest rate. The second aim is to discuss and criticize the theoretical assumptions of the model specially the concepts of "natural rate of interest" and of potential product presented by the "augmented Philips curve"; and to present a more realistic control of inflation targeting which does not assume the hypotheses above, and in which inflation targeting is based on the control of real rate of interest.

New-consensus macroeconomic governance in a Keynesian world, and the Keynesian alternative

The paper presents both the New Consensus and Keynesian equilibrium within the usual four competitive macro-markets structure. It gives theoretical explanations of the pernicious effects that the NCM governance, which has been designed for ergodic stationary regimes, brings about in Keynesian non-ergodic regimes. It put forward Keynesian principles of governance which include monetary, budgetary and fiscal instruments, and suggest new directions for the positive and normative analysis of macro-policies.

Effect of interferon-alpha on experimental septal fibrosis of the liver - study with a new model

Interferon-alpha is used in antiviral therapy in humans, mainly for viral hepatitis B and C. An anti-fibrotic effect of interferon has been postulated even in the absence of anti-viral response, which suggests that interferon directly inhibits fibrogenesis. Rats infected with the helminth Capillaria hepatica regularly develop diffuse septal fibrosis of the liver, which terminates in cirrhosis 40 days after inoculation. The aim of this study was to test the anti-fibrotic effect of interferon in this experimental model. Evaluation of fibrosis was made by three separate methods: semi-quantitative histology, computerized morphometry and hydroxyproline measurements. Treatment with interferon-alpha proved to inhibit the development of fibrosis in this model, especially when doses of 500,000 and 800,000 IU were used for 60 days. Besides confirming the anti-fibrotic potential of interferon-alpha on a non-viral new experimental model of hepatic fibrosis, a clear-cut dose-dependent effect was observed.

Monetary channels of social inclusion: a case study of basic income and the Caixa Econômica Federal in Brazil

This article reports evidence of new monetary channels for social inclusion involving basic income policies and the Caixa Econômica Federal, a Brazilian government savings bank. Since the Plano Real (Brazilian currency) and the liberalization of banking in the 1990s, the realization of competitive advantages by the Caixa as social policy agent and the importance of citizenship cards differ from existing theories of bank change, financial inclusion and monetary policy. Multi-method research reveals the importance of 1) political theories of basic income, 2) conceptions of citizenship and social justice, and 3) a back to the future modernization of government banking. This provides alternatives to contemporary market-based banking theory, neo-liberal policies, private and non-governmental microfinance strategies, and theories in political economy about fiscal constraints to social policies. New monetary channels of change also suggest that zero sum theories about politics, monetary authority and social inclusion are amiss.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Heart hypoplasia in an animal model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia

PURPOSE: In previous papers, we described a new experimental model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits, and we also reported noninvasive therapeutic strategies for prevention of the functional and structural immaturity of the lungs associated with this defect. In addition to lung hypoplasia, pulmonary hypertension, biochemical, and structural immaturity of the lungs, the hemodynamics of infants and animals with congenital diaphragmatic hernia are markedly altered. Hence, cardiac hypoplasia has been implicated as a possible cause of death in patients with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and it is hypothesized to be a probable consequence of fetal mediastinal compression by the herniated viscera. Cardiac hypoplasia has also been reported in lamb and rat models of congenital diaphragmatic hernia. The purpose of the present experiment was to verify the occurrence of heart hypoplasia in our new model of surgically produced congenital diaphragmatic hernia in fetal rabbits. METHODS: Twelve pregnant New Zealand rabbits underwent surgery on gestational day 24 or 25 (normal full gestational time - 31 to 32 days) to create left-sided diaphragmatic hernias in 1 or 2 fetuses per each doe. On gestational day 30, all does again underwent surgery, and the delivered fetuses were weighed and divided into 2 groups: control (non-surgically treated fetuses) (n = 12) and congenital diaphragmatic hernia (n = 9). The hearts were collected, weighed, and submitted for histologic and histomorphometric studies. RESULTS: During necropsy, it was noted that in all congenital diaphragmatic hernia fetuses, the left lobe of the liver herniated throughout the surgically created defect and occupied the left side of the thorax, with the deviation of the heart to the right side, compressing the left lung; consequently, this lung was smaller than the right one. The body weights of the animals were not altered by congenital diaphragmatic hernia, but heart weights were decreased in comparison to control fetuses. The histomorphometric analysis demonstrated that congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant decrease in the ventricular wall thickness and an increase in the interventricular septum thickness. CONCLUSION: Heart hypoplasia occurs in a rabbit experimental model of congenital diaphragmatic hernia. This model may be utilized for investigations in therapeutic strategies that aim towards the prevention or the treatment of heart hypoplasia caused by congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

An alternative experimental model for training in microsurgery

OBJECTIVE: to describe a new model of training in microsurgery with pig spleen after splenectomy performed by undergraduate students of the Discipline of Operative Technique of the UFPR Medical School. METHODS: after the completion of splenectomy we performed dissection of the vascular pedicle, distal and proximal to the ligation performed for removal of the spleen. After complete dissection of the splenic artery and vein with microscope, clamps were placed and the vessels were cut. We then made the anastomosis of the vessels with 9.0 nylon. RESULT: the microsurgical training with a well-defined routine, qualified supervision and using low cost experimental materials proved to be effective in the practice of initial microvascular surgery. CONCLUSION: the use of pig spleen, which would be discarded after splenectomy, is an excellent model for microsurgical training, since besides having the consistency and sensitivity of a real model, it saves the sacrifice of a new animal model in the initial learning phase of this technique.

Persistência inflacionária e curva de Phillips novo-keynesiana para o Brasil

Inflation persistence and new Keynesian Phillips curves for Brazil. In this paper is shown that sustainable inflation persistence has theoretical support not only due price indexation, but also because of micro-foundations based on assumptions of Simon's bounded rationality and because of persistent mark-up shocks. the new keynesian phillips curve, estimated for brazil for the period 2000/2008, and the partial coefficients of determination for moving sub-periods of 36 months identifies inflation persistence as the main determinant of inflation, with the capacity gap presenting larger importance only in the end of the sample period. Inflation persistence requires harder monetary policy when neither accommodation is acceptable nor complementary policies in order to reduce it, such as the minimization of indexation mechanisms and control of the market power, are adopted.