INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Estrutura de propriedade e de controle das empresas de capital aberto no Brasil

This paper has as its main objective to measure the magnitude of deviations between control rights and cash-flow rights for the ultimate shareholder with the largest voting rights of limited liability companies in Brazil. Furthermore, it pinpoints how these discrepancies are generated, evaluating the relative importance of the issuance of preferred stocks with no voting rights, pyramidal arrangements of ownership, and cross-shareholdings. The data set embraces 602 companies that in 2001 complied with the mandatory requirement of filing to the CVM.

Pressure Drop in Vertical Core-Annular Flow

An experimental apparatus for the study of core annular flows of heavy oil and water at room temperature has been set up and tested at laboratory scale. The test section consists of a 2.75 cm ID galvanized steel pipe. Tap water and a heavy oil (17.6 Pa.s; 963 kg/m³) were used. Pressure drop in a vertical upward test section was accurately measured for oil flow rates in the range 0.297 - 1.045 l/s and water flow rates ranging from 0.063 to 0.315 l/s. The oil-water input ratio was in the range 1-14. The measured pressure drop comprises gravitational and frictional parts. The gravitational pressure drop was expressed in terms of the volumetric fraction of the core, which was determined from a correlation developed by Bannwart (1998b). The existence of an optimum water-oil input ratio for each oil flow rate was observed in the range 0.07 - 0.5. The frictional pressure drop was modeled to account for both hydrodynamic and net buoyancy effects on the core. The model was adjusted to fit our data and shows excellent agreement with data from another source (Bai, 1995).

Reversible flow of cholesteryl ester between high-density lipoproteins and triacylglycerol-rich particles is modulated by the fatty acid composition and concentration of triacylglycerols

We determined the influence of fasting (FAST) and feeding (FED) on cholesteryl ester (CE) flow between high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and plasma apoB-lipoprotein and triacylglycerol (TG)-rich emulsions (EM) prepared with TG-fatty acids (FAs). TG-FAs of varying chain lengths and degrees of unsaturation were tested in the presence of a plasma fraction at d > 1.21 g/mL as the source of CE transfer protein. The transfer of CE from HDL to FED was greater than to FAST TG-rich acceptor lipoproteins, 18% and 14%, respectively. However, percent CE transfer from HDL to apoB-containing lipoproteins was similar for FED and FAST HDL. The CE transfer from HDL to EM depended on the EM TG-FA chain length. Furthermore, the chain length of the monounsaturated TG-containing EM showed a significant positive correlation of the CE transfer from HDL to EM (r = 0.81, P < 0.0001) and a negative correlation from EM to HDL (r = -041, P = 0.0088). Regarding the degree of EM TG-FAs unsaturation, among EMs containing C18, the CE transfer was lower from HDL to C18:2 compared to C18:1 and C18:3, 17.7%, 20.7%, and 20%, respectively. However, the CE transfer from EMs to HDL was higher to C18:2 than to C18:1 and C18:3, 83.7%, 51.2%, and 46.3%, respectively. Thus, the EM FA composition was found to be the rate-limiting factor regulating the transfer of CE from HDL. Consequently, the net transfer of CE between HDL and TG-rich particles depends on the specific arrangement of the TG acyl chains in the lipoprotein particle core.