27 resultados para Nelson and Siegel model

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Data was analyzed on development of the solanaceen fruit crop Cape gooseberry to evaluate how well a classical thermal time model could describe node appearance in different environments. The data used in the analysis were obtained from experiments conducted in Colombia in open fields and greenhouse condition at two locations with different climate. An empirical, non linear segmented model was used to estimate the base temperature and to parameterize the model for simulation of node appearance vs. time. The base temperature (Tb) used to calculate the thermal time (TT, ºCd) for node appearance was estimated to be 6.29 ºC. The slope of the first linear segment was 0.023 nodes per TT and 0.008 for the second linear segment. The time at which the slope of node apperance changed was 1039.5 ºCd after transplanting, determined from a statistical analysis of model for the first segment. When these coefficients were used to predict node appearance at all locations, the model successfully fit the observed data (RSME=2.1), especially for the first segment where node appearance was more homogeneous than the second segment. More nodes were produced by plants grown under greenhouse conditions and minimum and maximum rates of node appearance rates were also higher.

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ABSTRACT One of the most relevant activities of Brazilian economy is agriculture. Among the main crops in Brazil, rice is one of high relevance. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, in Southern Brazil, is responsible for 68.7% of domestic production (IBGE, 2013). The goal of this study was to develop a low-cost methodology with a regional scope to identify suitable areas for irrigated rice cropping in this state, using spectro-temporal behavior of vegetation index by means of MODIS images and HAND model. The rice-cropped area of this study was the southern half of the State. Using the HAND model, flood areas were mapped to identify irrigated rice cultivation. We used multi-temporal images of vegetation index from MODIS sensor, covering the period from August 2001 to May 2012. To assess the results, we used data collected in the fields and cropped area information from IBGE. The results showed that the proposed methodology was satisfactory, with Kappa 0.92 and global accuracy of 98.18%. As result, MODIS sensor data and flood areas delineation by means of HAND model generated the estimate irrigated rice area for the area of study.

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This work expands the classical Nelson and Winter model of Schumpeterian competition by including two sectors and a North-South dynamics, with a view to analyzing how different institutions and technological regimes affect the processes of convergence and divergence in the international economy. The results suggest that convergence may emerge out of the efforts for imitation in the South when the technological regime is cumulative. But when the regime is science-based, imitation is not enough for a successful catching-up. In this case convergence requires the South to invest in innovation as well. The work also analyses the robustness of the model results using Montecarlo techniques.

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Human schistosomiasis develops extensive and dense fibrosis in portal space, together with congested new blood vessels. This study demonstrates that Calomys callosus infected with Schistosoma mansoni also develops fibrovascular lesions, which are found in intestinal subserosa. Animals were percutaneously infected with 70 cercariae and necropsied at 42, 45, 55, 80, 90 and 160 days after infection. Intestinal sections were stained for brightfield, polarization microscopy, confocal laser scanning, transmission and scanning electron microscopies. Immunohistological analysis was also performed and some nodules were aseptically collected for cell culture. Numerous intestinal nodules, appearing from 55 up to 160 days after infection, were localized at the interface between external muscular layer and intestinal serosa, consisting of fibrovascular tissue forming a shell about central granuloma(s). Intranodular new vessels were derived from the vasculature of the external vascular layer and were positive for laminin, chondroitin-sulfate, smooth muscle alpha-actin and FVIII-RA. Fibroblastic cells and extracellular matrix components (collagens I, III and VI, fibronectin and tenascin) comprised the stroma. Intermixed with the fibroblasts and vessels there were variable number of eosinophils, macrophages and haemorrhagic foci. In conclusion, the nodules constitute an excellent and accessible model to study fibrogenesis and angiogenesis, dependent on S. mansoni eggs. The fibrogenic activity is fibroblastic and not myofibroblastic-dependent. The angiogenesis is so prominent that causes haemorrhagic ascites.

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The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

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The rat models currently employed for studies of nerve regeneration present distinct disadvantages. We propose a new technique of stretch-induced nerve injury, used here to evaluate the influence of gabapentin (GBP) on nerve regeneration. Male Wistar rats (300 g; n=36) underwent surgery and exposure of the median nerve in the right forelimbs, either with or without nerve injury. The technique was performed using distal and proximal clamps separated by a distance of 2 cm and a sliding distance of 3 mm. The nerve was compressed and stretched for 5 s until the bands of Fontana disappeared. The animals were evaluated in relation to functional, biochemical and histological parameters. Stretching of the median nerve led to complete loss of motor function up to 12 days after the lesion (P<0.001), compared to non-injured nerves, as assessed in the grasping test. Grasping force in the nerve-injured animals did not return to control values up to 30 days after surgery (P<0.05). Nerve injury also caused an increase in the time of sensory recovery, as well as in the electrical and mechanical stimulation tests. Treatment of the animals with GBP promoted an improvement in the morphometric analysis of median nerve cross-sections compared with the operated vehicle group, as observed in the area of myelinated fibers or connective tissue (P<0.001), in the density of myelinated fibers/mm2 (P<0.05) and in the degeneration fragments (P<0.01). Stretch-induced nerve injury seems to be a simple and relevant model for evaluating nerve regeneration.

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Abstract:Through the development of a proposal to categorize accountability into four stages - classical, cross-sectional, systemic, and diffused -, this article aims to identify characteristics of co-production of information and socio-political control of public administration in the work of Brazilian social observatories in relationship with government control agencies. The study analyses data from 20 social observatories and, particularly, three experiences of co-production of information and control, based on a systemic perspective on accountability and a model with four categories: Political and cultural; valuing; systemic-organizational, and production. The conclusions summarize characteristics of these practices, specific phases in the accountability processes, as well as the potentialities and challenges of co-production of information and control, which not only influences, but it is also influenced by the accountability system.

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OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

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This study evaluated epidemiological factors for HCV infection associated with sharing perforating and cutting instruments among candidates for blood donation (CBD) in the city of Belém, Pará, Brazilian Amazon. Two definitions of HCV infection cases were used: anti-HCV positivity shown by EIA, and HCV-RNA detection by PCR. Infected and uninfected CBD completed a questionnaire about possible risk factors associated with sharing perforating and cutting instruments. The information was evaluated using simple and multiple logistic regressions. Between May and November 2010, 146 (1.1%) persons with anti-HCV antibodies and 106 (0.8%) with HCV-RNA were detected among 13,772 CBD in Belém. Risk factors associated with HCV infection based on the EIA (model 1) and PCR (model 2) results were: use of needles and syringes sterilized at home; shared use of razors at home, sharing of disposable razors in barbershops, beauty salons etc.; and sharing manicure and pedicure material. The models of HCV infection associated with sharing perforating and cutting instruments should be taken into account by local and regional health authorities and by those of other countries with similar cultural practices, in order to provide useful information to guide political and public strategies to control HCV transmission.

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Baboons develop a syndrome, including eosinophilia and transient fever, after infection with carcariae of Schistosoma mansoni that is consistent with the human syndrome of acute schistosomiasis. Radiotelemetry can be used to follow the course of fever in infected baboons. Individual variations in intensity of disease were noted in baboons. These symptoms and signs were more closely linked to the onset of oviposition by the newly matured worms than they were to the presence of migrating schistosoma or maturing worms. The baboon is concluded to be a suitable and useful model for human acute schistosomiasis mansoni.

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The publishing industry is at a turning point. Facing the first major disruptive innovation in five centuries, its long-established structure and business model are at stake. Building on literature based on the pitfalls for incumbents, we interviewed key executives from the major publishers in Brazil to understand their perspective. We find that not only are they facing those pitfalls, but we also propose a new one, The Industry View Trap, concerning challenges created by convergence, the difficulty to deal with changes in the ecosystem and the fact that the very definition of the industry you're part of might have changed.

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The objective of this work was to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a new version of the soybean growth and yield model developed by Sinclair, under natural field conditions in northeastern Amazon. The meteorological data and the values of soybean growth and leaf area were obtained from an agrometeorological experiment carried out in Paragominas, PA, Brazil, from 2006 to 2009. The climatic conditions during the experiment were very distinct, with a slight reduction in rainfall in 2007, due to the El Niño phenomenon. There was a reduction in the leaf area index (LAI) and in biomass production during this year, which was reproduced by the model. The simulation of the LAI had root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55 to 0.82 m² m-2, from 2006 to 2009. The simulation of soybean yield for independent data showed a RMSE of 198 kg ha-1, i.e., an overestimation of 3%. The model was calibrated and validated for Amazonian climatic conditions, and can contribute positively to the improvement of the simulations of the impacts of land use change in the Amazon region. The modified version of the Sinclair model is able to adequately simulate leaf area formation, total biomass, and soybean yield, under northeastern Amazon climatic conditions.

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The Annonaceae family is distributed throughout Neotropical regions of the world. In Brazil, it covers nearly all natural formations particularly Annona, Xylopia and Polyalthia and is characterized chemically by the production of sources of terpenoids (mainly diterpenes), alkaloids, steroids, polyphenols and, flavonoids. Studies from 13C NMR data of diterpenes related with their botanical occurrence were used to generate self-organizing maps (SOM). Results corroborate those in the literature obtained from morphological and molecular data for three genera and the model can be used to project other diterpenes. Therefore, the model produced can predict which genera are likely to contain a compound.

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On the basis of theoretical B3LYP calculations, Yáñez and co-workers (J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2012, 8, 2293) illustrated that beryllium ions are capable of significantly modulating (changing) the electronic structures of imidazole. In this computational organic chemistry study, the interaction of this β-amino acid and five model Lewis acids (BeF1+, Be2+, AlF2(1+), AlF2+, and Al3+) were investigated. Several aspects were addressed: natural bond orbitals, including second order perturbation analysis of intra-molecular charge delocalization and the natural population analysis atomic charges; molecular geometries; selected infrared stretching frequencies (C-N, C-O, and N-H), and selected ¹H-NMR chemical shifts. The data illustrate that this interaction can weaken the H-O bond and goes beyond strengthening the intra-molecular hydrogen bond (N...H-O) to cause a spontaneous transfer of the proton to the nitrogen atom in five cases generating zwitterion structures. Many new features are observed. Most importantly, the zwitterion structures include a stabilizing hydrogen bond (N-H...O) that varies in relative strength according to the Lewis acid. These findings explain the experimental observations of α-amino acids (for example: J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2001, 123, 3577) and are the first reported fundamental electronic structure characterization of β-amino acids in zwitterion form.