Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

Large-scale patterns in morphological diversity and species assemblages in Neotropical Triatominae (Heteroptera: Reduviidae)

We analysed the spatial variation in morphological diversity (MDiv) and species richness (SR) for 91 species of Neotropical Triatominae to determine the ecological relationships between SR and MDiv and to explore the roles that climate, productivity, environmental heterogeneity and the presence of biomes and rivers may play in the structuring of species assemblages. For each 110 km x 110 km-cell on a grid map of America, we determined the number of species (SR) and estimated the mean Gower index (MDiv) based on 12 morphological attributes. We performed bootstrapping analyses of species assemblages to identify whether those assemblages were more similar or dissimilar in their morphology than expected by chance. We applied a multi-model selection procedure and spatial explicit analyses to account for the association of diversity-environment relationships. MDiv and SR both showed a latitudinal gradient, although each peaked at different locations and were thus not strictly spatially congruent. SR decreased with temperature variability and MDiv increased with mean temperature, suggesting a predominant role for ambient energy in determining Triatominae diversity. Species that were more similar than expected by chance co-occurred near the limits of the Triatominae distribution in association with changes in environmental variables. Environmental filtering may underlie the structuring of species assemblages near their distributional limits.

Multi-level governance and social cohesion in the European Union: the assessment of local agents, a study case inside Galicia

Implementing multi-level governance has been a key priority in EU cohesion policy. This study assesses the perceived achievements and shortcomings in implementing European Social Fund by analyzing the deficits and weaknesses as well as the poor participation of local agents who are in direct contact with the beneficiaries in order to design and implement this fund, which is the main financial instrument of EU social policy.

Multilevel and multidimensional scale for online trust

This paper examines the nature of the construct of consumers' trust toward the electronic channel of their financial institution. Through a study of a total of 372 individual users of Internet banking in Spain, we have managed to develop a third-order measuring instrument that integrates a total of seven dimensions. The exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to test the validation and reliability of the proposed scale. Findings provide useful information to professionals who seek to identify how customer's trust is formed in the online channel and in the financial sector.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

The development of a scale to measure concepts of schizophrenia: experience among Brazilian psychiatrists

INTRODUCTION: Among psychiatric disorders schizophrenia is often said to be the condition with the most disputed definition.The Bleulerian and Schneiderian approaches have given rise to diagnostic formulations that have varied with time and place. Controversies over the concept of schizophrenia were examined within European/North American settings in the early 1970s but little has since been reported on the views of psychiatrists in developing countries. In Brazil both concepts are referred to in the literature. A scale was developed to measure adherence to Bleulerian and Schneiderian concepts among psychiatrists working in S. Paulo. METHODOLOGY: A self-reported questionnaire comprising seventeen visual analogue-scale statements related to Bleulerian and Schneiderian definitions of Shizophrenia, plus sociodemographic and training characteristics, was distributed to a non-randomised sample of 150 psychiatrists. The two sub-scales were assessed by psychometric methods for internal consistency, sub-scale structure and test-retest reliability. Items selected according to internal consistency were examined by a two-factor model exploratory factor analysis. Intraclass correlation coefficients described the stability of the scale. RESULTS: Replies were received from 117 psychiatrists (mean age 36 (SD 7.9)), 74% of whom were made and 26% female. The Schneiderian scale showed better overall internal consistency than the Bleulerian scale. Intra-class correlation coefficients for test-retest comparisons were between 0.5 and 0.7 for Schneiderian items and 0.2 and 0.7 for Bleulerian items. There was no negative association between Bleulerian and Schneiderian scale scores, suggesting that respondents may hold both concepts. Place of training was significantly associated with the respondent's opinion; disagreement with a Bleulerian standpoint predominated for those trained at the University of S. Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: The less satisfactory reliability for the Bleulerian sub-scale limits confidence in the whole scale but on the other hand this questionnaire contributes to the understanding of the controversy over Bleulerian and Schneiderian models for conceptualisation of schizophrenia, the former requiring more inference and therefore being prone to unreliability.

Versão resumida da "job stress scale": adaptação para o português

OBJETIVO: Descrever o processo de adaptação, para o português, da versão resumida da "job stress scale", originalmente elaborada em inglês. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados seis aspectos de equivalência entre a escala original e a versão para o português: as equivalências conceitual, semântica, operacional, de itens, de medidas e funcional. Tomou-se por base um estudo de confiabilidade teste-reteste com 94 indivíduos selecionados. RESULTADOS: O estudo de confiabilidade teste-reteste entre 94 indivíduos permitiu estimativas de reprodutibilidade (coeficientes de correlação intraclasse) para as dimensões de "demanda", "controle" e "apoio social" da escala de 0,88, 0,87 e 0,85, respectivamente. Para as mesmas dimensões, as estimativas de consistência interna (alpha de Cronbach) foram, respectivamente, 0,79, 0,67 e 0,85. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados sugerem que o processo de adaptação da escala foi bem sucedido, indicando que seu uso no contexto sociocultural da população de estudo (Estudo Pró-Saúde) é apropriado.

Versão em português da Family Environment Scale: aplicação e validação

OBJETIVO: Traduzir a Escala do Ambiente Familiar (Family Environment Scale) para a língua portuguesa e aplicar o instrumento para sua validação. MÉTODOS: A tradução foi aplicada a membros de famílias brasileiras, visando avaliação da consistência interna e a concordância entre membros da mesma família. Foram selecionados 154 voluntários não sujeitos a qualquer intervenção para lidar com problemas familiares, residentes na cidade de São Paulo, em 2003. As pontuações médias nas dez subescalas do instrumento foram comparadas entre homens e mulheres e entre membros da mesma família. Avaliou-se a consistência interna pelo alfa de Cronbach. RESULTADOS: A pontuação máxima possível era nove em cada subescala (bom funcionamento familiar), exceto em relação a conflito e controle. Na maioria das subescalas, a pontuação média da amostra estudada esteve entre 5,1 e 7,6 (homens) e entre 5,4 e 7,7 (mulheres). Nas subescalas conflito e controle as médias variaram entre 1,8 e 4,6 (homens) e entre 1,6 e 4,6 (mulheres), sendo semelhantes às relatadas em estudos internacionais, exceto maior pontuação nas subescalas coesão e organização, e menor na subescala conflito. Não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa entre as pontuações atingidas por homens e mulheres. A confiabilidade da escala avaliada pelo alfa de Cronbach variou entre 0,61 e 0,78 para as dez subescalas. CONCLUSÕES: Fatores culturais podem ter influenciado os resultados obtidos em algumas subescalas. A versão em português da Escala do Ambiente Familiar apresentou razoável consistência interna que permite sua utilização para avaliar alterações no ambiente ou funcionamento familiar, e após intervenções terapêuticas.

Cultural adaptation and psychometric properties of Brazilian Need for Recovery Scale

OBJECTIVE: To translate the Need for Recovery Scale (NFR) into Brazilian Portuguese and culturally adapt it and assess the stability, internal consistency and convergent validity of the Brazilian scale among industrial workers. METHODS: The translation process followed the guidelines for cultural adaptation of questionnaires including the steps of translation, synthesis, back translation, expert committee review, and pre-testing. The Brazilian Portuguese NFR, final version (Br-NFR) was assessed for stability (n=52) and internal consistency (n=192) and for convergent validity through simultaneous assessment with other instruments: the Borg Scale (n=59); the Chalder Fatigue Questionnaire (n=57) and 3 subscales of the SF-36 (n=56). RESULTS: Stability and internal consistency met the criterion for a reliable measure (ICC=0.80 and Cronbach's alpha =0.87, respectively). The convergent validity between Br-NFR and other instruments also showed good results: Borg Scale (r= 0.64); Chalder Questionnaire (r= 0.67); SF-36 subscales: vitality (r= -0.84), physical functioning (r= -0.54), and role-physical (r= -0.47). CONCLUSIONS: The Br-NFR proved to be a reliable instrument to evaluate work-related fatigue symptoms in industrial workers. Furthermore, it showed significant and good correlations with well-established instruments such as the Borg Scale, the Chalder Questionnaire and SF-36 vitality subscale, supporting the validity of the Br-NFR.

Capital social no ELSA-Brasil: confiabilidade teste-reteste do Resource Generator scale

OBJETIVO: Estimar a confiabilidade teste-reteste dos itens do Resource Generator scale para avaliação de capital social no Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil).MÉTODOS: A escala de capital social foi aplicada em subamostra de 281 participantes dos seis Centros de Investigação do ELSA, em duas oportunidades, com intervalo de sete a 14 dias. O instrumento é constituído por 31 itens que representam situações concretas para avaliar o acesso a diferentes tipos de recursos, além de avaliar a fonte dos recursos disponíveis (familiares, amigos ou conhecidos). A análise estatística foi realizada por meio de estatísticas kappa (k) e kappa ajustado pela prevalência (ka).RESULTADOS: Os recursos sociais investigados foram encontrados com grande frequência (acima de 50%). Em relação à presença ou ausência dos recursos, as estimativas de confiabilidade ajustadas pela prevalência (ka) variaram de 0,54 a 0,97. No que se refere à fonte de recurso, essas estimativas variaram de ka = 0,45 (alguém que tenha bons contatos com a mídia) a ka = 0,86 (alguém que se formou no Ensino Médio).CONCLUSÕES: A escala apresentou níveis adequados de confiabilidade, que variaram de acordo com o tipo de recurso.

Brazilian version of the Quality of Care Scale: the perspective of people with disabilities

OBJECTIVE To analyze evidence of the validity and reliability of a Brazilian Portuguese version of the Quality of Care Scale from the perspective of people with physical and intellectual disabilities.METHODS There were 162 people with physical disabilities and 156 with intellectual disabilities from Porto Alegre and metropolitan region, who participated in the study in 2008. Classical psychometrics was used to independently analyze the two samples. Hypotheses for evidence of criterion validity (concurrent type) were tested with the Mann-Whitney test for non-normal distributions. Principal components analysis was used to explore factorial models. Evidence of reliability was calculated with Cronbach alpha for the scales and subscales. Test-retest reliability was analyzed for individuals with intellectual disabilities through intra-class correlation coefficient and the Willcoxon test.RESULTS The principal components in the group with physical disabilities replicated the original model presented as a solution to the international project data. Evidence of discriminant validity and test-retest reliability was found.CONCLUSIONS The transcultural factor model found within the international sample project seems appropriate for the samples investigated in this study, especially the physical disabilities group. Depression, pain, satisfaction with life and disability may play a mediating role in the evaluation of quality of care. Additional research is needed to add to evidence of the validity of the instruments.

Proposal of a short-form version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale

OBJECTIVE To propose a short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. METHODS Two samples were used to test the results obtained in the analyses in two distinct scenarios. One of the studies was composed of 230 low income families from Pelotas, RS, Southern Brazil, and the other was composed of 15,575 women, whose data were obtained from the 2006 National Survey on Demography and Health. Two models were tested, the first containing seven questions, and the second, the five questions that were considered the most relevant ones in the concordance analysis. The models were compared to the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy parameters were calculated, as well as the kappa agreement test. RESULTS Comparing the prevalence of food insecurity between the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale and the two models, the differences were around 2 percentage points. In the sensitivity analysis, the short version of seven questions obtained 97.8% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively, while specificity was 100% in both studies. The five-question model showed similar results (sensitivity of 95.7% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively). In the Pelotas sample, the kappa test of the seven-question version totaled 97.0% and that of the five-question version, 95.0%. In the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, the two models presented a 99.0% kappa. CONCLUSIONS We suggest that the model with five questions should be used as the short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, as its results were similar to the original scale with a lower number of questions. This version needs to be administered to other populations in Brazil in order to allow for the adequate assessment of the validity parameters.

Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

Breeding of Biomphalaria tenagophila in mass scale

An efficient method for breeding Biomphalaria tenagophila (Taim lineage/RS) was developed over a 5-year-period (2005-2010). Special facilities were provided which consisted of four cement tanks (9.4 x 0.6 x 0.22 m), with their bottom covered with a layer of sterilized red earth and calcium carbonate. Standard measures were adopted, as follows: each tank should contain an average of 3000 specimens, and would be provided with a daily ration of 35,000 mg complemented with lettuce. A green-house effect heating system was developed which constituted of movable dark canvas covers, which allowed the temperature to be controlled between 20 - 24 ºC. This system was essential, especially during the coldest months of the year. Approximately 27,000 specimens with a diameter of 12 mm or more were produced during a 14-month-period. The mortality rates of the newly-hatched and adult snails were 77% and 37%, respectively. The follow-up of the development system related to 310 specimens of B. tenagophila demonstrated that 70-day-old snails reached an average of 17.0 ± 0.9 mm diameter. The mortality rates and the development performance of B. tenagophila snails can be considered as highly satisfactory, when compared with other results in literature related to works carried out with different species of the genus Biomphalaria, under controlled laboratory conditions.