Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

Fuzzy logic applied to the modeling of water dynamics in an Oxisol in northeastern Brazil

Modeling of water movement in non-saturated soil usually requires a large number of parameters and variables, such as initial soil water content, saturated water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity, which can be assessed relatively easily. Dimensional flow of water in the soil is usually modeled by a nonlinear partial differential equation, known as the Richards equation. Since this equation cannot be solved analytically in certain cases, one way to approach its solution is by numerical algorithms. The success of numerical models in describing the dynamics of water in the soil is closely related to the accuracy with which the water-physical parameters are determined. That has been a big challenge in the use of numerical models because these parameters are generally difficult to determine since they present great spatial variability in the soil. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and use methods that properly incorporate the uncertainties inherent to water displacement in soils. In this paper, a model based on fuzzy logic is used as an alternative to describe water flow in the vadose zone. This fuzzy model was developed to simulate the displacement of water in a non-vegetated crop soil during the period called the emergency phase. The principle of this model consists of a Mamdani fuzzy rule-based system in which the rules are based on the moisture content of adjacent soil layers. The performances of the results modeled by the fuzzy system were evaluated by the evolution of moisture profiles over time as compared to those obtained in the field. The results obtained through use of the fuzzy model provided satisfactory reproduction of soil moisture profiles.

Modeling the pressure inactivation dynamics of Escherichia coli

Escherichia coli, as a model microorganism, was treated in phosphate-buffered saline under high hydrostatic pressure between 100 and 300 MPa, and the inactivation dynamics was investigated from the viewpoint of predictive microbiology. Inactivation data were curve fitted by typical predictive models: logistic, Gompertz and Weibull functions. Weibull function described the inactivation curve the best. Two parameters of Weibull function were calculated for each holding pressure and their dependence on holding pressure was obtained by interpolation. With the interpolated parameters, inactivation curves were simulated and compared with the experimental data sets.

Imported and autochthonous cases in the dynamics of dengue epidemics in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of dengue fever including both imported and autochthonous cases. METHODS: The study was conducted based on epidemiological data of the 2003 dengue epidemic in Brasília, Brazil. The basic reproduction number is estimated from the epidemic curve, fitting linearly the increase of initial cases. Aiming at simulating an epidemic with both autochthonous and imported cases, a "susceptible-infectious-resistant" compartmental model was designed, in which the imported cases were considered as an external forcing. The ratio between R0 of imported versus autochthonous cases was used as an estimator of real R0. RESULTS: The comparison of both reproduction numbers (only autochthonous versus all cases) showed that considering all cases as autochthonous yielded a R0 above one, although the real R0 was below one. The same results were seen when the method was applied on simulated epidemics with fixed R0. This method was also compared to some previous proposed methods by other authors and showed that the latter underestimated R0 values. CONCLUSIONS: It was shown that the inclusion of both imported and autochthonous cases is crucial for the modeling of the epidemic dynamics, and thus provides critical information for decision makers in charge of prevention and control of this disease.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

The dynamics of dengue virus serotype 3 introduction and dispersion in the state of Bahia, Brazil

By 2002, dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) and DENV-2 had circulated for more than a decade in Brazil. In 2002, the introduction of DENV-3 in the state of Bahia produced a massive epidemic and the first cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Based on the standardized frequency, timing and location of viral isolations by the state's Central Laboratory, DENV-3 probably entered Bahia through its capital, Salvador, and then rapidly disseminated to other cities, following the main roads. A linear regression model that included traffic flow, distance from the capital and DENV-1 circulation (r² = 0.24, p = 0.001) supported this hypothesis. This pattern was not seen for serotypes already in circulation and was not seen for DENV-3 in the following year. Human population density was another important factor in the intensity of viral circulation. Neither DENV-1 nor DENV-2 fit this model for 2001 or 2003. Since the vector has limited flight range and vector densities fail to correlate with intensity of viral circulation, this distribution represents the movement of infected people and to some extent mosquitoes. This pattern may mimic person-to-person spread of a new infection.

Modeling changes in organic carbon stocks for distinct soils in southeastern brazil after four eucalyptus rotations using the century model

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays an important role in carbon (C) cycle and soil quality. Considering the complexity of factors that control SOM cycling and the long time it usually takes to observe changes in SOM stocks, modeling constitutes a very important tool to understand SOM cycling in forest soils. The following hypotheses were tested: (i) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks would be higher after several rotations of eucalyptus than in low-productivity pastures; (ii) SOC values simulated by the Century model would describe the data better than the mean of observations. So, the aims of the current study were: (i) to evaluate the SOM dynamics using the Century model to simulate the changes of C stocks for two eucalyptus chronosequences in the Rio Doce Valley, Minas Gerais State, Brazil; and (ii) to compare the C stocks simulated by Century with the C stocks measured in soils of different Orders and regions of the Rio Doce Valley growing eucalyptus. In Belo Oriente (BO), short-rotation eucalyptus plantations had been cultivated for 4.0; 13.0, 22.0, 32.0 and 34.0 years, at a lower elevation and in a warmer climate, while in Virginópolis (VG), these time periods were 8.0, 19.0 and 33.0 years, at a higher elevation and in a milder climate. Soil samples were collected from the 0-20 cm layer to estimate C stocks. Results indicate that the C stocks simulated by the Century model decreased after 37 years of poorly managed pastures in areas previously covered by native forest in the regions of BO and VG. The substitution of poorly managed pastures by eucalyptus in the early 1970´s led to an average increase of C of 0.28 and 0.42 t ha-1 year-1 in BO and VG, respectively. The measured C stocks under eucalyptus in distinct soil Orders and independent regions with variable edapho-climate conditions were not far from the values estimated by the Century model (root mean square error - RMSE = 20.9; model efficiency - EF = 0.29) despite the opposite result obtained with the statistical procedure to test the identity of analytical methods. Only for lower soil C stocks, the model over-estimated the C stock in the 0-20 cm layer. Thus, the Century model is highly promising to detect changes in C stocks in distinct soil orders under eucalyptus, as well as to indicate the impact of harvest residue management on SOM in future rotations.

Modeling and control of multibody system with flexible appendages

The objective of this work is to describe the design and the implementation of an experiment to study the dynamics and the active control of a slewing multi-link flexible structure. The experimental apparatus was designed to be representative of a flexible space structure such as a satellite with multiple flexible appendages. In this study we describe the design procedures, the analog and digital instrumentation, the analytical modeling together with model validation studies carried out through experimental modal testing and parametric system identification studies in the frequency domain. Preliminary results of a simple positional control where the sensor and the actuator are positioned physically at the same point is also described.

Modeling of the Fluid-Structure Interaction in Inelastic Piping Systems

In many engineering applications, compliant piping systems conveying liquids are subjected to inelastic deformations due to severe pressure surges such as plastic tubes in modern water supply transmission lines and metallic pipings in nuclear power plants. In these cases the design of such systems may require an adequate modeling of the interactions between the fluid dynamics and the inelastic structural pipe motions. The reliability of the prediction of fluid-pipe behavior depends mainly on the adequacy of the constitutive equations employed in the analysis. In this paper it is proposed a systematic and general approach to consistently incorporate different kinds of inelastic behaviors of the pipe material in a fluid-structure interaction analysis. The main feature of the constitutive equations considered in this work is that a very simple numerical technique can be used for solving the coupled equations describing the dynamics of the fluid and pipe wall. Numerical examples concerning the analysis of polyethylene and stainless steel pipe networks are presented to illustrate the versatility of the proposed approach.

Experimental results and modeling of poultry carcass cooling by water immersion

Poultry carcasses have to be chilled to reduce the central breast temperatures from approximately 40 to 4 °C, which is crucial to ensure safe products. This work investigated the cooling of poultry carcasses by water immersion. Poultry carcasses were taken directly from an industrial processing plant and cooled in a pilot chiller, which was built to investigate the influence of the method and the water stirring intensity on the carcasses cooling. A simplified empiric mathematical model was used to represent the experimental results. These results indicated clearly that the understanding and quantification of heat transfer between the carcass and the cooling water is crucial to improve processes and equipment. The proposed mathematical model is a useful tool to represent the dynamics of carcasses cooling, and it can be used to compare different chiller operational conditions in industrial plants. Therefore, this study reports data and a simple mathematical tool to handle an industrial problem with little information available in the literature.

Using Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) for the evaluation of beer pasteurization: effect of orientation of cans

In-package pasteurization is the most used method for beer microbiological stabilization. The search for safer and better quality food has created a need to better understand the processes involved in producing it. However, little is known about the temperature and velocity profiles during the thermal processes of liquid foods in commercial packaging, which results in over-dimensioned processes to guarantee safety, decreasing the sensorial and nutritional characteristics of the product and increasing process costs. Simulations using Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) have been used by various authors to evaluate those processes. The objective of the present paper was to evaluate the effect of packaging orientation in the pasteurization of beer in a commercial aluminum can using CFD. A heating process was simulated at 60 ºC up to 15 PUs (a conventional beer process, in which 1 Pasteurization Unit (PU) is equivalent to 1minute at 60 ºC). The temperature profile and convection current velocity along the process and the variation of the PUs were evaluated in relation to time considering the cans in the conventional, inverted, and horizontal positions. The temperature and velocity profiles were similar to those presented in the literature. The package position did not result in process improvement.

Computational fluid dynamics evaluation of liquid food thermal process in a brick shaped package

Food processes must ensure safety and high-quality products for a growing demand consumer creating the need for better knowledge of its unit operations. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been widely used for better understanding the food thermal processes, and it is one of the safest and most frequently used methods for food preservation. However, there is no single study in the literature describing thermal process of liquid foods in a brick shaped package. The present study evaluated such process and the influence of its orientation on the process lethality. It demonstrated the potential of using CFD to evaluate thermal processes of liquid foods and the importance of rheological characterization and convection in thermal processing of liquid foods. It also showed that packaging orientation does not result in different sterilization values during thermal process of the evaluated fluids in the brick shaped package.

An outline of military technological dynamics as restraints for acquisition, international cooperation and domestic technological development

The expectation that technological returns from defense expenditure through acquisition, international cooperation and domestic research would further national development underappreciates the different technological dynamic of the armed services. This paper outlines the technological dynamic the stems from fighting in the air, at sea and on land, exemplifying consequences for the case of acquisition.

Network dynamics in scientific knowledge acquisition: an analysis in three public universities in the state of Bahia

This paper aims to cast some light on the dynamics of knowledge networks in developing countries by analyzing the scientific production of the largest university in the Northeast of Brazil and its influence on some of the remaining regional research institutions in the state of Bahia. Using a methodology test to be employed in a larger project, the Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA) (Federal University of Bahia), the Universidade do Estado da Bahia (Uneb) (State of Bahia University) and the Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (Uesc)'s (Santa Cruz State University) scientific productions are discussed in one of their most traditionally expressive sectors in academic production - namely, the field of chemistry, using social network analysis of co-authorship networks to investigate the existence of small world phenomena and the importance of these phenomena in research performance in these three universities. The results already obtained through this research bring to light data of considerable interest concerning the scientific production in unconsolidated research universities. It shows the important participation of the UFBA network in the composition of the other two public universities research networks, indicating a possible occurrence of small world phenomena in the UFBA and Uesc networks, as well as the importance of individual researchers in consolidating research networks in peripheral universities. The article also hints that the methodology employed appears to be adequate insofar as scientific production may be used as a proxy for scientific knowledge.