Simulações computacionais e ferramentas de modelização em educação química: uma revisão de literatura publicada

This article presents a review of published literature concerning the use of computer simulations and modeling tools in Chemical Education. The findings about the possibilities of their application in the Chemistry curriculum, their effective implementation, the teaching methods involved, the research methodology and also the instruments of evaluation that were used and their results were described and analyzed. The need to develop adequate theory support to educators who want to start using this new technology in their Chemistry classes became evident along the research, as well as the lack of development of model perception among Chemistry educators and learners.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Characterization of soil parameters of two soils of Rio Grande do Sul in modeling the prediction of tractive effort

The interaction between the soil and tillage tool can be examined using different parameters for the soil and the tool. Among the soil parameters are the shear stress, cohesion, internal friction angle of the soil and the pre-compression stress. The tool parameters are mainly the tool geometry and depth of operation. Regarding to the soils of Rio Grande do Sul there are hardly any studies and evaluations of the parameters that have importance in the use of mathematical models to predict tensile loads. The objective was to obtain parameters related to the soils of Rio Grande do Sul, which are used in soil-tool analysis, more specifically on mathematical models that allow the calculation of tractive effort for symmetric and narrow tools. Two of the main soils of Rio Grande do Sul, an Albaqualf and a Paleudult were studied. Equations that relate the cohesion, internal friction angle of the soil, adhesion, soil-tool friction angle and pre-compression stress as a function of water content in the soil were obtained, leading to important information for use of mathematical models for tractive effort calculation.

Computer tools applied to analysis of solar water heaters

The simulation programs are important tools to analyze the different energetic alternatives, including the use of renewable energy. The objective of this study was to analyze comparatively the different computer tools available for modeling of solar water heaters. Among the main simulation software of solar thermal systems, there are: RETScreen International, EnergyPlus, TRNSYS, SolDesigner, SolarPro, e T*SOL. Among the tools mentioned, only EnergyPlus and RETScreen International are free, but they allow obtaining interesting results when applied together. The first one has a detailed module of energy analysis of solar water heaters, while the second one provides an detailed economic feasibility study and an assessment of emissions of greenhouse gases. RETScreen International and EnergyPlus programs are aimed at a diverse audience, including designers, researchers and energy planners.

Modeling of allergen proteins found in sea food products

Shellfish are a source of food allergens, and their consumption is the cause of severe allergic reactions in humans. Tropomyosins, a family of muscle proteins, have been identified as the major allergens in shellfish and mollusks species. Nevertheless, few experimentally determined three-dimensional structures are available in the Protein Data Base (PDB). In this study, 3D models of several homologous of tropomyosins present in marine shellfish and mollusk species (Chaf 1, Met e1, Hom a1, Per v1, and Pen a1) were constructed, validated, and their immunoglobulin E binding epitopes were identified using bioinformatics tools. All protein models for these allergens consisted of long alpha-helices. Chaf 1, Met e1, and Hom a1 had six conserved regions with sequence similarities to known epitopes, whereas Per v1 and Pen a1 contained only one. Lipophilic potentials of identified epitopes revealed a high propensity of hydrophobic amino acids in the immunoglobulin E binding site. This information could be useful to design tropomyosin-specific immunotherapy for sea food allergies.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Biotyping, serotyping and ribotyping as epidemiological tools in the evaluation of Acinetobacter baumannii dissemination in hospital units, Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil

Dissemination of Acinetobacter baumannii strains in different units of a hospital in Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil was evaluated over a period of two years. By using biotyping, serotyping and ribotyping, 27 distinct clones were differentiated among 76 strains isolated between 1993-94, from clinical specimens of hospitalized patients. Two clones, 2:O4:A (biotype:serotype:ribotype) and 2:O29:A accounted for the majority of strains widely disseminated in the units during 1993. The introduction in the hospital setting, of a new clone, 6:O13:B, at the end of 1993 and its predominance through 1994 is discussed. Among 15 strains isolated from neonates, 6 (40%) belonged to the same clone, 2:O4:A. Interestingly, this clone was almost all recovered in neonatal intensive care unit, nursery and in pediatric unit. All strains were susceptible to imipenem and polymyxcin B. Multiresistant strains (up to 12 antimicrobial agents) accounted for 66.7% and 84.8% of the strains isolated in 1993 and in 1994, respectively.

Spatial distribution of dengue in the city of Cruzeiro, São Paulo State, Brazil: use of geoprocessing tools

The aim of this article is to identify patterns in spatial distribution of cases of dengue fever that occurred in the municipality of Cruzeiro, State of São Paulo, in 2006. This is an ecological and exploratory study using the tools of spatial analysis in the preparation of thematic maps with data from Sinan-Net. An analysis was made by area, taking as unit the IBGE census, the analysis included four months in 2006 which show the occurrence of the disease in the city. The thematic maps were constructed by TerraView 3.3.1 software, the same software provided the values of the indicators of Global Moran (I M) every month and the Kernel estimation. In the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue were georeferenced (with a rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants); the indicators of Moran and p-values obtained were I M = 0.080 (March) p = 0.11; I M = 0.285 (April) p = 0.01; I M = 0.201 (May) p = 0.01 and I M = 0.002 (June) p = 0.57. The first cases were identified in the Northeast and Central areas of Cruzeiro and the recent cases, in the North, Northeast and Central. It was possible to identify census tracts where the epidemic began and how it occurred temporally and spatially in the city.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Revisiting the concept of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and its challenges using traditional and new tools

Different aspects of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis are revisited here. Manson's schistosomiasis causes periportal fibrosis and portal hypertension in approximately 6% of infected subjects, usually with preservation of their hepatic function. The assessment of liver involvement is of major importance in determining the prognosis and risk of complications from schistosomiasis, such as upper digestive bleeding secondary to variceal rupture. For many years, the diagnosis of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and liver fibrosis was made by abdominal palpation and the finding of liver and/or spleen enlargement. However, there is no consensus regarding the clinical parameters of the liver and spleen to be considered in this physical evaluation. For the last three decades, abdominal ultrasound (US) has become the best imaging technique to evaluate liver fibrosis caused by schistosomiasis mansoni. However, US is a subjective procedure and is therefore examiner-dependent. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings have provided valuable information in addition to ultrasound and clinical examination. The combination of a comprehensive history and physical examination, basic laboratory tests (a stool examination for Schistosoma mansoni eggs and a blood cell count), biomarkers for liver fibrosis/portal hypertension and imaging methods seem to offer the best approach for evaluating patients with this disease. In situations where research is involved or in patients with severe disease, MRI may be considered.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

Modeling AIDS vaccines: the cellular level

This paper discuses current strategies for the development of AIDS vaccines wich allow immunzation to disturb the natural course of HIV at different detailed stages of its life cycle. Mathematical models describing the main biological phenomena (i.e. virus and vaccine induced T4 cell growth; virus and vaccine induced activation latently infected T4 cells; incremental changes immune response as infection progress; antibody dependent enhancement and neutralization of infection) and allowing for different vaccination strategies serve as a backgroud for computer simulations. The mathematical models reproduce updated information on the behavior of immune cells, antibody concentrations and free viruses. The results point to some controversial outcomes of an AIDS vaccine such as an early increase in virus concentration among vaccinated when compared to nonvaccinated individuals.