Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Typhoid fever as cellular microbiological model

The knowledge about typhoid fever pathogenesis is growing in the last years, mainly about the cellular and molecular phenomena that are responsible by clinical manifestations of this disease. In this article are discussed several recent discoveries, as follows: a) Bacterial type III protein secretion system; b) The five virulence genes of Salmonella spp. that encoding Sips (Salmonella invasion protein) A, B, C, D and E, which are capable of induce apoptosis in macrophages; c) The function of Toll R2 and Toll R4 receptors present in the macrophage surface (discovered in the Drosophila). The Toll family receptors are critical in the signalizing mediated by LPS in macrophages in association with LBP and CD14; d) The lines of immune defense between intestinal lumen and internal organs; e) The fundamental role of the endothelial cells in the inflammatory deviation from bloodstream into infected tissues by bacteria. In addition to above subjects, the authors comment the correlation between the clinical features of typhoid fever and the cellular and molecular phenomena of this disease, as well as the therapeutic consequences of this knowledge.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease. 1 - Comparative xenodiagnosis with nine triatomine species of animals with acute infections by Trypanosoma cruzi

In search of a suitable vector species for xenodiagnosis of humans and animals with chronic Chagas' disease we first investigated the reactions of different vector species to acute infection with Trypanosoma cruzi. Vector species utilized in this study were: Triatoma infestans, Rhodnius prolixus and Triatoma dimidiata, all well adapted to human habitats; Triatoma rubrovaria and Rhodnius neglectus both considered totally wild species; Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma sordida, Triatoma pseudomaculata and Triatoma brasiliensis, all essentially sylvatic but some with domiciliary tendencies and others restricted to peridomestic biotopes with incipient colonization of human houses after successful eradication of T. infestans. Results summarized in Table IV suggest the following order of infectivity among the 9 studied vector species: P. megistus with 97.8% of infected bugs, T. rubrovaria with 95% of positive bugs a close second followed by T. Pseudomaculata with 94.3% and R. neglectus with 93.8% of infected bugs, almost identical thirds. R. prolixus, T. infestans and T. dimidiata exhibited low infection rates of 53.1%, 51.6% and 38.2% respectively, coupled with sharp decreases occuring with aging of infection (Fig. 1). The situation was intermediate in T. brasiliensis and T. sordida infection rates being 76.9% and 80% respectively. Results also point to the existence of a close correlation between prevalence and intensity of infection in that, species with high infection rates ranging from 93.8% to 97.8% exhibited relatively large proportions of insects (27.3% - 33.5%) harbouring very dense populations of T. cruzi. In species with low infection rates ranging from 38.2% to 53.1% the proportion of bugs demonstrating comparable parasite densities was at most 6%. No differences attributable to blood-meal size or to greater susceptibility of indigenous vector species to parasites of their own geographical area, as suggested in earlier...

Vertical toxoplasmosis in a murine model. Protection after immunization with antigens of Toxoplasma gondii incorporated into liposomes

Distinct Toxoplasma gondii antigens were entrapped within liposomes and evaluated for their ability to protect Balb/c mice against congenital transmission: soluble tachyzoite antigen (L/STAg), soluble tissue cyst antigen (L/SCAg), soluble tachyzoite plus tissue cyst (L/STCAg) or purified 32kDa antigen of tachyzoite (L/pTAg). Soluble tachyzoite antigen alone in PBS (STAg) or emulsified in Freund's Complete Adjuvant (FCA/STAg) was also evaluated. Dams were inoculated subcutaneously with these antigens 6, 4 and 2 weeks prior to a challenge with four tissue cysts of the P strain of T. gondii orally between 10 and 14 days of pregnancy. Significant diminution differences were observed between the frequency of infected pups born of the dams immunized with the antigens incorporated into liposomes and that of pups born of the dams immunized with antigen emulsified in FCA or non immunized group (p<0.05). There was a significant decrease in the number of pups born dead in the groups L/STAg, L/SCAg and L/pTAg when compared with pups from all other groups (p <0.05). All dams immunized with or without adjuvant showed an antibody response and a proliferation of T-cells. However, no correlation was found between immune response and protection against the challenge.

Evaluation of a linear spectral mixture model and vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) in a study of schistosomiasis mansoni and Biomphalaria glabrata distribution in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

This paper analyses the associations between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the prevalence of schistosomiasis and the presence of Biomphalaria glabrata in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil. Additionally, vegetation, soil and shade fraction images were created using a Linear Spectral Mixture Model (LSMM) from the blue, red and infrared channels of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer spaceborne sensor and the relationship between these images and the prevalence of schistosomiasis and the presence of B. glabrata was analysed. First, we found a high correlation between the vegetation fraction image and EVI and second, a high correlation between soil fraction image and NDVI. The results also indicate that there was a positive correlation between prevalence and the vegetation fraction image (July 2002), a negative correlation between prevalence and the soil fraction image (July 2002) and a positive correlation between B. glabrata and the shade fraction image (July 2002). This paper demonstrates that the LSMM variables can be used as a substitute for the standard vegetation indices (EVI and NDVI) to determine and delimit risk areas for B. glabrata and schistosomiasis in MG, which can be used to improve the allocation of resources for disease control.

Ionic imbalance and lack of effect of adjuvant treatment with methylene blue in the hamster model of leptospirosis

Leptospirosis in humans usually involves hypokalaemia and hypomagnesaemia and the putative mechanism underlying such ionic imbalances may be related to nitric oxide (NO) production. We previously demonstrated the correlation between serum levels of NO and the severity of renal disease in patients with severe leptospirosis. Methylene blue inhibits soluble guanylyl cyclase (downstream of the action of any NO synthase isoforms) and was recently reported to have beneficial effects on clinical and experimental sepsis. We investigated the occurrence of serum ionic changes in experimental leptospirosis at various time points (4, 8, 16 and 28 days) in a hamster model. We also determined the effect of methylene blue treatment when administered as an adjuvant therapy, combined with late initiation of standard antibiotic (ampicillin) treatment. Hypokalaemia was not reproduced in this model: all of the groups developed increased levels of serum potassium (K). Furthermore, hypermagnesaemia, rather than magnesium (Mg) depletion, was observed in this hamster model of acute infection. These findings may be associated with an accelerated progression to acute renal failure. Adjuvant treatment with methylene blue had no effect on survival or serum Mg and K levels during acute-phase leptospirosis in hamsters.

Designs and model effects definitions in the initial stage of a plant breeding program

The objective of this work was to compare the relative efficiency of initial selection and genetic parameter estimation, using augmented blocks design (ABD), augmented blocks twice replicated design (DABD) and group of randomised block design experiments with common treatments (ERBCT), by simulations, considering fixed effect model and mixed model with regular treatment effects as random. For the simulations, eight different conditions (scenarios) were considered. From the 600 simulations in each scenario, the mean percentage selection coincidence, the Pearsons´s correlation estimates between adjusted means for the fixed effects model, and the heritability estimates for the mixed model were evaluated. DABD and ERBCT were very similar in their comparisons and slightly superior to ABD. Considering the initial stages of selection in a plant breeding program, ABD is a good alternative for selecting superior genotypes, although none of the designs had been effective to estimate heritability in all the different scenarios evaluated.

Genotype by environment interaction for seed yield per plant in rapeseed using AMMI model

The objective of this study was to assess genotype by environment interaction for seed yield per plant in rapeseed cultivars grown in Northern Serbia by the AMMI (additive main effects and multiplicative interaction) model. The study comprised 19 rapeseed genotypes, analyzed in seven years through field trials arranged in a randomized complete block design, with three replicates. Seed yield per plant of the tested cultivars varied from 1.82 to 19.47 g throughout the seven seasons, with an average of 7.41 g. In the variance analysis, 72.49% of the total yield variation was explained by environment, 7.71% by differences between genotypes, and 19.09% by genotype by environment interaction. On the biplot, cultivars with high yield genetic potential had positive correlation with the seasons with optimal growing conditions, while the cultivars with lower yield potential were correlated to the years with unfavorable conditions. Seed yield per plant is highly influenced by environmental factors, which indicates the adaptability of specific genotypes to specific seasons.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Teaching project: a low-cost swine model for chest tube insertion training

Objective: to describe and evaluate the acceptance of a low-cost chest tube insertion porcine model in a medical education project in the southwest of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: we developed a low-cost and low technology porcine model for teaching chest tube insertion and used it in a teaching project. Medical trainees - students and residents - received theoretical instructions about the procedure and performed thoracic drainage in this porcine model. After performing the procedure, the participants filled a feedback questionnaire about the proposed experimental model. This study presents the model and analyzes the questionnaire responses. Results: seventy-nine medical trainees used and evaluated the model. The anatomical correlation between the porcine model and human anatomy was considered high and averaged 8.1±1.0 among trainees. All study participants approved the low-cost porcine model for chest tube insertion. Conclusion: the presented low-cost porcine model for chest tube insertion training was feasible and had good acceptability among trainees. This model has potential use as a teaching tool in medical education.

Head-to-head comparison of dipyridamole, dobutamine and pacing stress echocardiography for the detection of myocardial ischemia in an animal model of coronary artery stenosis

To compare the sensitivity of dipyridamole, dobutamine and pacing stress echocardiography for the detection of myocardial ischemia we produced a physiologically significant stenosis in the left circumflex artery of 14 open-chest dogs (range: 50 to 89% reduction in luminal diameter). In each study, dobutamine (5 to 40 µg kg-1 min-1 in 3-min stages) and pacing (20 bpm increments, each 2 min, up to 260 bpm) were performed randomly, and then followed by dipyridamole (up to 0.84 mg/kg over 10 min). The positivity of stress echocardiography tests was quantitatively determined by a significant (P<0.05) reduction of or failure to increase absolute and percent systolic wall thickening in the stenotic artery supplied wall, as compared to the opposite wall (areas related to the left anterior descending artery). Systolic and diastolic frozen images were analyzed off-line by two blinded observers in the control and stress conditions. The results showed that 1) the sensitivity of dobutamine, dipyridamole and pacing stress tests was 57, 57 and 36%, respectively; 2) in animals with positive tests, the mean percent change of wall thickening in left ventricular ischemic segments was larger in the pacing (-19 ± 11%) and dipyridamole (-18 ± 16%) tests as compared to dobutamine (-9 ± 6%) (P = 0.05), but a similar mean reduction of wall thickening was observed when this variable was normalized to a control left ventricular segment (area related to the left anterior descending artery) (pacing: -16 ± 7%; dipyridamole: -25 ± 16%; dobutamine: -26 ± 10%; not significant), and 3) a significant correlation was observed between magnitude of coronary stenosis and left ventricular segmental dysfunction induced by ischemia in dogs submitted to positive stress tests. We conclude that the dobutamine and dipyridamole stress tests showed identical sensitivities for the detection of myocardial ischemia in this one-vessel disease animal model with a wide range of left circumflex artery stenosis. The pacing stress test was less sensitive, but the difference was not statistically significant. The magnitude of segmental left ventricular dysfunction induced by ischemia was similar in all stress tests evaluated.

Correlation of mixed lymphocyte culture with chronic graft-versus-host disease following allogeneic stem cell transplantation

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the mixed lymphocyte culture as a predictive assay of acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We studied 153 patients who received a first bone marrow transplantation from human leukocyte antigen-identical siblings. Acute GVHD was observed in 26 of 128 (20.3%) patients evaluated and chronic GVHD occurred in 60 of 114 (52.6%). One-way mixed lymphocyte culture (MLC) assays were performed by the standard method. MLC results are reported as the relative response (RR) from donor against patient cells. The responses ranged from -47.0 to 40.7%, with a median of 0.5%. The Kaplan-Meier probability of developing GVHD was determined for patients with positive and negative MLC. There was no significant difference in incidence of acute GVHD between the groups studied. However, the incidence of chronic GVHD was higher in recipients with RR >4.5% than in those with RR <=4.5%. The Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to examine the effect of MLC levels on incidence of chronic GVHD, while adjusting for the potential confounding effect of others suspected or observed risk factors. The relative risk of chronic GVHD was 2.5 for patients with positive MLC (RR >4.5%), 2.9 for those who received peripheral blood progenitor cells as a graft, and 2.2 for patients who developed previous acute GVHD. MLC was not useful for predicting acute GVHD, but MLC with RR >4.5% associated with other risk factors could predict the development of chronic GVHD, being of help for the prevention and/or treatment of this late complication.

Comparison of the homeostasis model assessment and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index with data from forearm metabolic studies for the in vivo assessment of insulin sensitivity

The present study was designed to compare the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) with data from forearm metabolic studies of healthy individuals and of subjects in various pathological states. Fifty-five healthy individuals and 112 patients in various pathological states, including type 2 diabetes mellitus, essential hypertension and others, were studied after an overnight fast and for 3 h after ingestion of 75 g of glucose, by HOMA, QUICKI and the forearm technique to estimate muscle uptake of glucose combined with indirect calorimetry (oxidative and non-oxidative glucose metabolism). The patients showed increased HOMA (1.88 ± 0.14 vs 1.13 ± 0.10 pmol/l x mmol/l) and insulin/glucose (I/G) index (1.058.9 ± 340.9 vs 518.6 ± 70.7 pmol/l x (mg/100 ml forearm)-1), and decreased QUICKI (0.36 ± 0.004 vs 0.39 ± 0.006 (µU/ml + mg/dl)-1) compared with the healthy individuals. Analysis of the data for the group as a whole (patients and healthy individuals) showed that the estimate of insulin resistance by HOMA was correlated with data obtained in the forearm metabolic studies (glucose uptake: r = -0.16, P = 0.04; non-oxidative glucose metabolism: r = -0.20. P = 0.01, and I/G index: r = 0.17, P = 0.03). The comparison of QUICKI with data of the forearm metabolic studies showed significant correlation between QUICKI and non-oxidative glucose metabolism (r = 0.17, P = 0.03) or I/G index (r = -0.37, P < 0.0001). The HOMA and QUICKI are good estimates of insulin sensitivity as data derived from forearm metabolic studies involving direct measurements of insulin action on muscle glucose metabolism.

Histopathological characteristics of a novel knock-in mouse prostate cancer model

Prostate cancer is relatively unique to man. There is no naturally occurring prostate cancer in the mouse. Pre-clinical studies involve the establishment of a genetically engineered mouse prostate cancer model with features close to those of the human situation. A new knock-in mouse adenocarcinoma prostate (KIMAP) model was established, which showed close-to-human kinetics of tumor development. In order to determine if the similar kinetics is associated with heterogeneous tumor architecture similar to the human situation, we utilized a new mouse histological grading system (Gleason analogous grading system) similar to the Gleason human grading system and flow cytometry DNA analysis to measure and compare the adenocarcinoma of the KIMAP model with human prostate cancer. Sixty KIMAP prostate cancer samples from 60 mice were measured and compared with human prostate cancer. Flow cytometry DNA analysis was performed on malignant prostate tissues obtained from KIMAP models. Mice with prostate cancer from KIMAP models showed a 53.3% compound histological score rate, which was close to the human clinical average (50%) and showed a significant correlation with age (P = 0.001). Flow cytometry analyses demonstrated that most KIMAP tumor tissues were diploid, analogous to the human situation. The similarities of the KIMAP mouse model with tumors of the human prostate suggest the use of this experimental model to complement studies of human prostate cancer.