Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Evaluation of a linear spectral mixture model and vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) in a study of schistosomiasis mansoni and Biomphalaria glabrata distribution in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

This paper analyses the associations between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the prevalence of schistosomiasis and the presence of Biomphalaria glabrata in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil. Additionally, vegetation, soil and shade fraction images were created using a Linear Spectral Mixture Model (LSMM) from the blue, red and infrared channels of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer spaceborne sensor and the relationship between these images and the prevalence of schistosomiasis and the presence of B. glabrata was analysed. First, we found a high correlation between the vegetation fraction image and EVI and second, a high correlation between soil fraction image and NDVI. The results also indicate that there was a positive correlation between prevalence and the vegetation fraction image (July 2002), a negative correlation between prevalence and the soil fraction image (July 2002) and a positive correlation between B. glabrata and the shade fraction image (July 2002). This paper demonstrates that the LSMM variables can be used as a substitute for the standard vegetation indices (EVI and NDVI) to determine and delimit risk areas for B. glabrata and schistosomiasis in MG, which can be used to improve the allocation of resources for disease control.

Simulating maize phenology as a function of air temperature with a linear and a nonlinear model

The objective of this study was to adapt a nonlinear model (Wang and Engel - WE) for simulating the phenology of maize (Zea mays L.), and to evaluate this model and a linear one (thermal time), in order to predict developmental stages of a field-grown maize variety. A field experiment, during 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 was conducted in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in two growing seasons, with seven sowing dates each. Dates of emergence, silking, and physiological maturity of the maize variety BRS Missões were recorded in six replications in each sowing date. Data collected in 2005/2006 growing season were used to estimate the coefficients of the two models, and data collected in the 2006/2007 growing season were used as independent data set for model evaluations. The nonlinear WE model accurately predicted the date of silking and physiological maturity, and had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the linear (thermal time) model. The overall RMSE for silking and physiological maturity was 2.7 and 4.8 days with WE model, and 5.6 and 8.3 days with thermal time model, respectively.

Longitudinal anthropometric assessment of infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers, Belo Horizonte, Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the growth parameters in infants who were born to HIV-1-infected mothers. METHODS: The study was a longitudinal evaluation of the z-scores for the weight-for-age (WAZ), weight-for-length (WLZ) and length-for-age (LAZ) data collected from a cohort. A total of 97 non-infected and 33 HIV-infected infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers in Belo Horizonte, Southeastern Brazil, between 1995 and 2003 was studied. The average follow-up period for the infected and non-infected children was 15.8 months (variation: 6.8 to 18.0 months) and 14.3 months (variation: 6.3 to 18.6 months), respectively. A mixed-effects linear regression model was used and was fitted using a restricted maximum likelihood. RESULTS: There was an observed decrease over time in the WAZ, LAZ and WLZ among the infected infants. At six months of age, the mean differences in the WAZ, LAZ and WLZ between the HIV-infected and non-infected infants were 1.02, 0.59, and 0.63 standard deviations, respectively. At 12 months, the mean differences in the WAZ, LAZ and WLZ between the HIV-infected and non-infected infants were 1.15, 1.01, and 0.87 standard deviations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The precocious and increasing deterioration of the HIV-infected infants' anthropometric indicators demonstrates the importance of the early identification of HIV-infected infants who are at nutritional risk and the importance of the continuous assessment of nutritional interventions for these infants.

Dynamic network data envelopment analysis for university hospitals evaluation

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To develop an assessment tool to evaluate the efficiency of federal university general hospitals. METHODS Data envelopment analysis, a linear programming technique, creates a best practice frontier by comparing observed production given the amount of resources used. The model is output-oriented and considers variable returns to scale. Network data envelopment analysis considers link variables belonging to more than one dimension (in the model, medical residents, adjusted admissions, and research projects). Dynamic network data envelopment analysis uses carry-over variables (in the model, financing budget) to analyze frontier shift in subsequent years. Data were gathered from the information system of the Brazilian Ministry of Education (MEC), 2010-2013. RESULTS The mean scores for health care, teaching and research over the period were 58.0%, 86.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. In 2012, the best performance year, for all units to reach the frontier it would be necessary to have a mean increase of 65.0% in outpatient visits; 34.0% in admissions; 12.0% in undergraduate students; 13.0% in multi-professional residents; 48.0% in graduate students; 7.0% in research projects; besides a decrease of 9.0% in medical residents. In the same year, an increase of 0.9% in financing budget would be necessary to improve the care output frontier. In the dynamic evaluation, there was progress in teaching efficiency, oscillation in medical care and no variation in research. CONCLUSIONS The proposed model generates public health planning and programming parameters by estimating efficiency scores and making projections to reach the best practice frontier.

Bayesian genetic parameters for body weight and survival of Nile tilapia farmed in Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for survival and weight of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), farmed in cages and ponds in Brazil, and to predict genetic gain under different scenarios. Survival was recorded as a binary response (dead or alive), during harvest time in the 2008 grow-out period. Genetic parameters were estimated using a Bayesian mixed linear-threshold animal model via Gibbs sampling. The breeding population consisted of 2,912 individual fish, which were analyzed together with the pedigree of 5,394 fish. The heritabilities estimates, with 95% posterior credible intervals, for tagging weight, harvest weight and survival were 0.17 (0.09-0.27), 0.21 (0.12-0.32) and 0.32 (0.22-0.44), respectively. Credible intervals show a 95% probability that the true genetic correlations were in a favourable direction. The selection for weight has a positive impact on survival. Estimated genetic gain was high when selecting for harvest weight (5.07%), and indirect gain for tagging weight (2.17%) and survival (2.03%) were also considerable.

Utilização do sensor linear de luz ILX554 em espectroscopia óptica

This technical note describes the construction of a low-cost optical detector. This device is composed by a high-sensitive linear light sensor (model ILX554) and a microcontroller. The performance of the detector was demonstrated by the detection of emission and Raman spectra of the several atomic systems and the results reproduce those found in the literature.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Histomorphometric analysis of the response of rat skeletal muscle to swimming, immobilization and rehabilitation

The objective of the present study was to determine to what extent, if any, swimming training applied before immobilization in a cast interferes with the rehabilitation process in rat muscles. Female Wistar rats, mean weight 260.52 ± 16.26 g, were divided into 4 groups of 6 rats each: control, 6 weeks under baseline conditions; trained, swimming training for 6 weeks; trained-immobilized, swimming training for 6 weeks and then immobilized for 1 week; trained-immobilized-rehabilitated, swimming training for 6 weeks, immobilized for 1 week and then remobilized with swimming for 2 weeks. The animals were then sacrificed and the soleus and tibialis anterior muscles were dissected, frozen in liquid nitrogen and processed histochemically (H&E and mATPase). Data were analyzed statistically by the mixed effects linear model (P < 0.05). Cytoarchitectural changes such as degenerative characteristics in the immobilized group and regenerative characteristics such as centralized nucleus, fiber size variation and cell fragmentation in the groups submitted to swimming were more significant in the soleus muscle. The diameters of the lesser soleus type 1 and type 2A fibers were significantly reduced in the trained-immobilized group compared to the trained group (P < 0.001). In the tibialis anterior, there was an increase in the number of type 2B fibers and a reduction in type 2A fibers when trained-immobilized rats were compared to trained rats (P < 0.001). In trained-immobilized-rehabilitated rats, there was a reduction in type 2B fibers and an increase in type 2A fibers compared to trained-immobilized rats (P < 0.009). We concluded that swimming training did not minimize the deleterious effects of immobilization on the muscles studied and that remobilization did not favor tissue re-adaptation.

LOSS OF EXTRACTION CAPACITY OF MEHLICH-1 AND MONOCALCIUM PHOSPHATE AS A VARIABLE OF REMAINING P AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF SOIL PHOSPHORUS AND SULFUR

The Mehlich-1 (M-1) extractant and Monocalcium Phosphate in acetic acid (MCPa) have mechanisms for extraction of available P and S in acidity and in ligand exchange, whether of the sulfate of the extractant by the phosphate of the soil, or of the phosphate of the extractant by the sulfate of the soil. In clayey soils, with greater P adsorption capacity, or lower remaining P (Rem-P) value, which corresponds to soils with greater Phosphate Buffer Capacity (PBC), more buffered for acidity, the initially low pH of the extractants increases over their time of contact with the soil in the direction of the pH of the soil; and the sulfate of the M-1 or the phosphate of the MCPa is adsorbed by adsorption sites occupied by these anions or not. This situation makes the extractant lose its extraction capacity, a phenomenon known as loss of extraction capacity or consumption of the extractant, the object of this study. Twenty soil samples were chosen so as to cover the range of Rem-P (0 to 60 mg L-1). Rem-P was used as a measure of the PBC. The P and S contents available from the soil samples through M-1 and MCPa, and the contents of other nutrients and of organic matter were determined. For determination of loss of extraction capacity, after the rest period, the pH and the P and S contents were measured in both the extracts-soils. Although significant, the loss of extraction capacity of the acidity of the M-1 and MCPa extractants with reduction in the Rem-P value did not have a very expressive effect. A “linear plateau” model was observed for the M-1 for discontinuous loss of extraction capacity of the P content in accordance with reduction in the concentration of the Rem-P or increase in the PBC, suggesting that a discontinuous model should also be adopted for interpretation of available P of soils with different Rem-P values. In contrast, a continuous linear response was observed between the P variables in the extract-soil and Rem-P for the MCPa extractor, which shows increasing loss of extraction capacity of this extractor with an increase in the PBC of the soil, indicating the validity of the linear relationship between the available S of the soil and the PBC, estimated by Rem-P, as currently adopted.

Wheat Yield Loss in a Two Species Competition with Emex australis and Emex spinosa

Emex australis and E. spinosa are significant weed species in wheat and other crops. Information on the extent of competition of the Emex species will be helpful to access yield losses in wheat. Field experiments were conducted to quantify the interference of tested weed densities each as single or mixture of both at 1:1 on their growth and yield, wheat yield components and wheat grain yield losses in two consecutive years. Dry weight of both weed species increased from 3-6 g m-2 with every additional plant of weed, whereas seed number and weight per plant decreased with increasing density of either weed. Both weed species caused considerable decrease in yield components like spike bearing tillers, number of grains per spike, 1000-grain weight of wheat with increasing density population of the weeds. Based on non-linear hyperbolic regression model equation, maximum yield loss at asymptotic weed density was estimated to be 44 and 62% with E. australis, 56 and 70% with E. spinosa and 63 and 72% with mixture of both species at 1:1 during both year of study, respectively. It was concluded that E. spinosa has more competition effects on wheat crop as compared to E. australis.

Comparison of anaerobic threshold determined by visual and mathematical methods in healthy women

Several methods are used to estimate anaerobic threshold (AT) during exercise. The aim of the present study was to compare AT obtained by a graphic visual method for the estimate of ventilatory and metabolic variables (gold standard), to a bi-segmental linear regression mathematical model of Hinkley's algorithm applied to heart rate (HR) and carbon dioxide output (VCO2) data. Thirteen young (24 ± 2.63 years old) and 16 postmenopausal (57 ± 4.79 years old) healthy and sedentary women were submitted to a continuous ergospirometric incremental test on an electromagnetic braking cycloergometer with 10 to 20 W/min increases until physical exhaustion. The ventilatory variables were recorded breath-to-breath and HR was obtained beat-to-beat over real time. Data were analyzed by the nonparametric Friedman test and Spearman correlation test with the level of significance set at 5%. Power output (W), HR (bpm), oxygen uptake (VO2; mL kg-1 min-1), VO2 (mL/min), VCO2 (mL/min), and minute ventilation (VE; L/min) data observed at the AT level were similar for both methods and groups studied (P > 0.05). The VO2 (mL kg-1 min-1) data showed significant correlation (P < 0.05) between the gold standard method and the mathematical model when applied to HR (r s = 0.75) and VCO2 (r s = 0.78) data for the subjects as a whole (N = 29). The proposed mathematical method for the detection of changes in response patterns of VCO2 and HR was adequate and promising for AT detection in young and middle-aged women, representing a semi-automatic, non-invasive and objective AT measurement.

Influence of intrauterine and extrauterine growth on neurodevelopmental outcome of monozygotic twins

There have been indications that intrauterine and early extrauterine growth can influence childhood mental and motor function. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the influence of intrauterine growth restriction and early extrauterine head growth on the neurodevelopmental outcome of monozygotic twins. Thirty-six monozygous twin pairs were evaluated at the corrected age of 12 to 42 months. Intrauterine growth restriction was quantified using the fetal growth ratio. The effects of birth weight ratio, head circumference at birth and current head circumference on mental and motor outcomes were estimated using mixed-effect linear regression models. Separate estimates of the between (interpair) and within (intrapair) effects of each measure on development were thus obtained. Neurodevelopment was assessed with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 2nd edition, by a psychologist blind to the exposure. A standardized neurological examination was performed by a neuropediatrician who was unaware of the exposures under investigation. After adjustment, birth weight ratio and head circumference at birth were not associated with motor or mental outcomes. Current head circumference was associated with mental but not with motor outcomes. Only the intrapair twin effect was significant. An increase of 1 cm in current head circumference of one twin compared with the other was associated with 3.2 points higher in Mental Developmental Index (95%CI = 1.06-5.32; P < 0.03). Thus, no effect of intrauterine growth was found on cognition and only postnatal head growth was associated with cognition. This effect was not shared by the co-twin.

Biometrical analysis and selection of tetraploid progenies of Panicum maximum using mixed model methods

The objectives of this work were to estimate the genetic and phenotypic parameters and to predict the genetic and genotypic values of the selection candidates obtained from intraspecific crosses in Panicum maximum as well as the performance of the hybrid progeny of the existing and projected crosses. Seventy-nine intraspecific hybrids obtained from artificial crosses among five apomictic and three sexual autotetraploid individuals were evaluated in a clonal test with two replications and ten plants per plot. Green matter yield, total and leaf dry matter yields and leaf percentage were evaluated in five cuts per year during three years. Genetic parameters were estimated and breeding and genotypic values were predicted using the restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction procedure (REML/BLUP). The dominant genetic variance was estimated by adjusting the effect of full-sib families. Low magnitude individual narrow sense heritabilities (0.02-0.05), individual broad sense heritabilities (0.14-0.20) and repeatability measured on an individual basis (0.15-0.21) were obtained. Dominance effects for all evaluated characteristics indicated that breeding strategies that explore heterosis must be adopted. Less than 5% increase in the parameter repeatability was obtained for a three-year evaluation period and may be the criterion to determine the maximum number of years of evaluation to be adopted, without compromising gain per cycle of selection. The identification of hybrid candidates for future cultivars and of those that can be incorporated into the breeding program was based on the genotypic and breeding values, respectively. The prediction of the performance of the hybrid progeny, based on the breeding values of the progenitors, permitted the identification of the best crosses and indicated the best parents to use in crosses.

Comparison of maps of spatial variability of soil resistance to penetration constructed with and without covariables using a spatial linear model

A study about the spatial variability of data of soil resistance to penetration (RSP) was conducted at layers 0.0-0.1 m, 0.1-0.2 m and 0.2-0.3 m depth, using the statistical methods in univariate forms, i.e., using traditional geostatistics, forming thematic maps by ordinary kriging for each layer of the study. It was analyzed the RSP in layer 0.2-0.3 m depth through a spatial linear model (SLM), which considered the layers 0.0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m in depth as covariable, obtaining an estimation model and a thematic map by universal kriging. The thematic maps of the RSP at layer 0.2-0.3 m depth, constructed by both methods, were compared using measures of accuracy obtained from the construction of the matrix of errors and confusion matrix. There are similarities between the thematic maps. All maps showed that the RSP is higher in the north region.