Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

We estimated the geographic distributions of triatomine species in Central-West Region of Brazil (CW) and analysed the climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 3,396 records of 27 triatomine species were analysed. Using the maximum entropy method, ecological niche models were produced for eight species occurring in at least 20 municipalities based on 13 climatic variables and elevation. Triatoma sordida and Rhodnius neglectus were the species with the broadest geographic distributions in CW Brazil. The Cerrado areas in the state of Goiás were found to be more suitable for the occurrence of synanthropic triatomines than the Amazon forest areas in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso. The variable that best explains the evaluated models is temperature seasonality. The results indicate that almost the entire region presents climatic conditions that are appropriate for at least one triatomine species. Therefore, it is recommended that entomological surveillance be reinforced in CW Brazil.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Neutron tomography using projection data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation for nondestructive evaluation

This work present the application of a computer package for generating of projection data for neutron computerized tomography, and in second part, discusses an application of neutron tomography, using the projection data obtained by Monte Carlo technique, for the detection and localization of light materials such as those containing hydrogen, concealed by heavy materials such as iron and lead. For tomographic reconstructions of the samples simulated use was made of only six equal projection angles distributed between 0º and 180º, with reconstruction making use of an algorithm (ARIEM), based on the principle of maximum entropy. With the neutron tomography it was possible to detect and locate polyethylene and water hidden by lead and iron (with 1cm-thick). Thus, it is demonstrated that thermal neutrons tomography is a viable test method which can provide important interior information about test components, so, extremely useful in routine industrial applications.

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

Biometrical analysis and selection of tetraploid progenies of Panicum maximum using mixed model methods

The objectives of this work were to estimate the genetic and phenotypic parameters and to predict the genetic and genotypic values of the selection candidates obtained from intraspecific crosses in Panicum maximum as well as the performance of the hybrid progeny of the existing and projected crosses. Seventy-nine intraspecific hybrids obtained from artificial crosses among five apomictic and three sexual autotetraploid individuals were evaluated in a clonal test with two replications and ten plants per plot. Green matter yield, total and leaf dry matter yields and leaf percentage were evaluated in five cuts per year during three years. Genetic parameters were estimated and breeding and genotypic values were predicted using the restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction procedure (REML/BLUP). The dominant genetic variance was estimated by adjusting the effect of full-sib families. Low magnitude individual narrow sense heritabilities (0.02-0.05), individual broad sense heritabilities (0.14-0.20) and repeatability measured on an individual basis (0.15-0.21) were obtained. Dominance effects for all evaluated characteristics indicated that breeding strategies that explore heterosis must be adopted. Less than 5% increase in the parameter repeatability was obtained for a three-year evaluation period and may be the criterion to determine the maximum number of years of evaluation to be adopted, without compromising gain per cycle of selection. The identification of hybrid candidates for future cultivars and of those that can be incorporated into the breeding program was based on the genotypic and breeding values, respectively. The prediction of the performance of the hybrid progeny, based on the breeding values of the progenitors, permitted the identification of the best crosses and indicated the best parents to use in crosses.

Selection of full-sib families of Panicum maximum Jacq under low light conditions

The silvopastoral system is a viable technological alternative to extensive cattle grazing, however, for it to be successful, forage grass genotypes adapted to reduced light need to be identified. The objective of this study was to select progenies of Panicum maximum tolerant to low light conditions for use in breeding programs and to study the genetic control and performance of some traits associated with shade tolerance. Six full-sib progenies were evaluated in full sun, 50% and 70% of light reduction in pots and subjected to cuttings. Progeny genotypic values ​​(GV) increased with light reduction in relation to plant height (H) and specific leaf area (SLA). The traits total dry mass accumulation (DM) and leaf dry mass accumulation (LDM) had GV higher in 50% shade and intermediate in 70% shade. The GV of tiller number (TIL) and root dry mass accumulation (RDM) decreased with light reduction. The highest positive correlations were obtained for the traits H and RDM with SLA and DM; the highest negative correlations were between TIL and SLA and RDM, and H and LDM. The progenies showed higher tolerance to 50% light reduction and, among them, two stood out and will be used in breeding programs. It was also found that it is not necessary to evaluate some traits under all light conditions. All traits had high broad sense heritability and high genotypic correlation between progenies in all light intensities. There is genetic difference among the progenies regarding the response to different light intensities, which will allow selection for shade tolerance

Prediction of genetic gain from selection indices for disease resistance in papaya hybrids

In order to select superior hybrids for the concentration of favorable alleles for resistance to papaya black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot, 67 hybrids were evaluated in two seasons, in 2007, in a randomized block design with two replications. Genetic gains were estimated from the selection indices of Smith & Hazel, Pesek & Baker, Williams, Mulamba & Mock, with selection intensity of 22.39%, corresponding to 15 hybrids. The index of Mulamba & Mock showed gains more suitable for the five traits assessed when it was used the criterion of economic weight tentatively assigned. Together, severity of black spot on leaves and on fruits, characteristics considered most relevant to the selection of resistant materials, expressed percentage gain of -44.15%. In addition, there were gains for other characteristics, with negative predicted selective percentage gain. The results showed that the index of Mulamba & Mock is the most efficient procedure for simultaneous selection of papaya hybrid resistant to black spot, powdery mildew and phoma spot.

Multivariate Analysis for Animal Selection in Experimental Research

Background: Several researchers seek methods for the selection of homogeneous groups of animals in experimental studies, a fact justified because homogeneity is an indispensable prerequisite for casualization of treatments. The lack of robust methods that comply with statistical and biological principles is the reason why researchers use empirical or subjective methods, influencing their results. Objective: To develop a multivariate statistical model for the selection of a homogeneous group of animals for experimental research and to elaborate a computational package to use it. Methods: The set of echocardiographic data of 115 male Wistar rats with supravalvular aortic stenosis (AoS) was used as an example of model development. Initially, the data were standardized, and became dimensionless. Then, the variance matrix of the set was submitted to principal components analysis (PCA), aiming at reducing the parametric space and at retaining the relevant variability. That technique established a new Cartesian system into which the animals were allocated, and finally the confidence region (ellipsoid) was built for the profile of the animals’ homogeneous responses. The animals located inside the ellipsoid were considered as belonging to the homogeneous batch; those outside the ellipsoid were considered spurious. Results: The PCA established eight descriptive axes that represented the accumulated variance of the data set in 88.71%. The allocation of the animals in the new system and the construction of the confidence region revealed six spurious animals as compared to the homogeneous batch of 109 animals. Conclusion: The biometric criterion presented proved to be effective, because it considers the animal as a whole, analyzing jointly all parameters measured, in addition to having a small discard rate.

In vitro selection of bacteria with potential for use as probiotics in marine shrimp culture

The objective of this work was to isolate strains of lactic acid bacteria with probiotic potential from the digestive tract of marine shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei), and to carry out in vitro selection based on multiple characters. The ideotype (ideal proposed strain) was defined by the highest averages for the traits maximum growth velocity, final count of viable cells, and inhibition halo against nine freshwater and marine pathogens, and by the lowest averages for the traits duplication time and resistance of strains to NaCl (1.5 and 3%), pH (6, 8, and 9), and biliary salts (5%). Mahalanobis distance (D²) was estimated among the evaluated strains, and the best ones were those with the shortest distances to the ideotype. Ten bacterial strains were isolated and biochemically identified as Lactobacillus plantarum (3), L. brevis (3), Weissella confusa (2), Lactococcus lactis (1), and L. delbrueckii (1). Lactobacillus plantarum strains showed a wide spectrum of action and the largest inhibition halos against pathogens, both Gram-positive and negative, high growth rate, and tolerance to all evaluated parameters. In relation to ideotype, L. plantarum showed the lowest Mahalanobis (D²) distance, followed by the strains of W. confusa, L. brevis, L. lactis, and L. delbrueckii. Among the analyzed bacterial strains, those of Lactobacillus plantarum have the greatest potential for use as a probiotic for marine shrimp.

Simultaneous selection in progenies of yellow passion fruit using selection indices

This study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of simultaneous selection (selection indices) using estimated genetic gains in yellow passion fruit and to make a comparison between the methodologies of Mulamba & Mock and Elston. The study was conducted with 26 sib progenies of yellow passion fruit for intrinsic production characteristics including fruit number, fruit mass, fruit length and diameter, and for the fruit characteristics skin thickness, soluble solids and acidity. Two methodologies were applied: first, in the joint analysis of fruit characteristics and of intrinsic production characteristics in a single phase of selection; and second, in the analysis in two phases, in which priority was given to the intrinsic production characteristics in the first phase, and later, in the second phase, the best fruit characteristics were chosen among the progenies of the first phase. The analysis of variance was applied to the data to detect genetic variability among progenies. The Elston's selection indice was unable to provide distribution of genetic gains consistent with the purposes of the study, as it selected a single progeny of passion fruit. However, the index based on the sum of ranks of Mulamba & Mock was more suitable, as it provided a balanced distribution of gains, selecting a larger number of progenies. The methodology of selection using indices is advantageous in passion fruit, since it contributes to higher genetic gains for all the traits evaluated, and the selection in a single phase was proved efficient for progeny selection.

Agronomic performance of 27 cocoa progenies and plant selection based on productivity, self-compatibility and disease resistance

The objective of the present work was to evaluate 27 progenies of cocoa crosses considering the agronomic traits and select F1 plants within superior crosses. The experiment was installed in March 2005, in the Experimental Station Joaquim Bahiana (ESJOB), in Itajuipe, Bahia. The area of the experiment is of approximately 3 ha, with a total of 3240 plants. Thirteen evaluations of vegetative brooms, five of cushion brooms and 15 of number of pods per plant were accomplished. Thirty pollinations were made for each selected plant to test for self-compatibility. The production, based on the number of pods per plant, and resistance to witches´ broom indicated CEPEC 94 x CCN 10, RB 39 x CCN 51 and CCN 10 x VB 1151 as superior progenies. All selections tested were self-compatible. The analyses of progenies and individual tree data, associated to visual field observations, allowed the selection of 17 plants which were included in a network of regional tests to determine the phenotypic stability.

Selection of common bean lines with high grain yield and high grain calcium and iron concentrations

Genetic improvement of common bean nutritional quality has advantages in marketing and can contribute to society as a food source. The objective of this study was to evaluate the genetic variability for grain yield, calcium and iron concentrations in grains of inbred common bean lines obtained by different breeding methods. For this, 136 F7 inbred lines were obtained using the Pedigree method and 136 F7 inbred lines were obtained using the Single-Seed Descent (SSD) method. The lines showed genetic variability for grain yield, and concentrations of calcium and iron independently of the method of advancing segregating populations. The Pedigree method allows obtaining a greater number of lines with high grain yield. Selection using the SSD method allows the identification of a larger number of lines with high concentrations of calcium and iron in grains. Weak negative correlations were found between grain yield and calcium concentration (r = -0.0994) and grain yield and iron concentration (r = -0.3926). Several lines show genetic superiority for grain yield and concentrations of calcium and iron in grains and their selection can result in new common bean cultivars with high nutritional quality.

Selection of anthracnose resistant common beans using detached leaves in partially controlled environment

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the possibility of selecting anthracnose resistant common bean plants using detached primary leaves in partially controlled environment of a greenhouse and identify differences in the reaction of genotypes to anthracnose. The common bean cultivars Ouro Negro, OuroVermelho, ManteigãoFosco 11, Rudá, Rudá-R, VP8, BRSMG Madrepérola, Pérola, MeiaNoite and BRSMG Talismãwere characterizedfor resistance to the races 65, 81 and 453 of Colletotrichum lindemuthianum and the method of detached primary leaves was compared to the method with the traditional inoculation of plants at the phenological stage V2. The lines Rudá, Rudá-R and Pérola were inoculated with the races 65 and 453 of C. lindemuthianum, aiming to assess the rate of coincidence of anthracnose severity by both inoculation methods. In general, the two methods presented similar results for the reaction of the cultivars. The use of detached primary leaves of common bean plants in the partially controlled environment was feasible for selection of plants resistant to anthracnose and has the advantages of low-needed infrastructure and reduction of resources, space and time.