Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Climate and land-use changes effects on the distribution of a regional endemism: Melanophryniscus sanmartini (Amphibia, Bufonidae)

ABSTRACT Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate group according to the IUCN. Land-use and land cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) are two of the main factors related to declining amphibian populations. Given the vulnerability of threatened and rare species, the study of their response to these impacts is a conservation priority. The aim of this work was to analyze the combined impact of LULCC and CC on the regionally endemic species Melanophryniscus sanmartini Klappenbach, 1968. This species is currently categorized as near threatened by the IUCN, and previous studies suggest negative effects of projected changes in climate. Using maximum entropy methods we modeled the effects of CC on the current and mid-century distribution of M. sanmartini under two IPCC scenarios - A2 (severe) and B2 (moderate). The effects of LULCC were studied by superimposing the potential distribution with current land use, while future distribution models were evaluated under the scenario of maximum expansion of soybean and afforestation in Uruguay. The results suggest that M. sanmartini is distributed in eastern Uruguay and the south of Brazil, mainly related to hilly and grasslands systems. Currently more than 10% of this species' distribution is superimposed by agricultural crops and exotic forest plantations. Contrasting with a recent modelling study our models suggest an expansion of the distribution of M. sanmartini by mid-century under both climate scenarios. However, despite the rise in climatically suitable areas for the species in the future, LULCC projections indicate that the proportion of modified habitats will occupy up to 25% of the distribution of M. sanmartini. Future change in climate conditions could represent an opportunity for M. sanmartini, but management measures are needed to mitigate the effects of habitat modification in order to ensure its survival and allow the eventual expansion of its distribution.

Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

We estimated the geographic distributions of triatomine species in Central-West Region of Brazil (CW) and analysed the climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 3,396 records of 27 triatomine species were analysed. Using the maximum entropy method, ecological niche models were produced for eight species occurring in at least 20 municipalities based on 13 climatic variables and elevation. Triatoma sordida and Rhodnius neglectus were the species with the broadest geographic distributions in CW Brazil. The Cerrado areas in the state of Goiás were found to be more suitable for the occurrence of synanthropic triatomines than the Amazon forest areas in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso. The variable that best explains the evaluated models is temperature seasonality. The results indicate that almost the entire region presents climatic conditions that are appropriate for at least one triatomine species. Therefore, it is recommended that entomological surveillance be reinforced in CW Brazil.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Pedotransfer functions to estimate proctor test parameters under different tillage systems

The Proctor test is time-consuming and requires sampling of several kilograms of soil. Proctor test parameters were predicted in Mollisols, Entisols and Vertisols of the Pampean region of Argentina under different management systems. They were estimated from a minimum number of readily available soil properties (soil texture, total organic C) and management (training data set; n = 73). The results were used to generate a soil compaction susceptibility model, which was subsequently validated using a second group of independent data (test data set; n = 24). Soil maximum bulk density was estimated as follows: Maximum bulk density (Mg m-3) = 1.4756 - 0.00599 total organic C (g kg-1) + 0.0000275 sand (g kg-1) + 0.0539 management. Management was equal to 0 for uncropped and untilled soils and 1 for conventionally tilled soils. The established models predicted the Proctor test parameters reasonably well, based on readily available soil properties. Tillage systems induced changes in the maximum bulk density regardless of total organic matter content or soil texture. The lower maximum apparent bulk density values under no-tillage require a revision of the relative compaction thresholds for different no-tillage crops.

Neutron tomography using projection data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation for nondestructive evaluation

This work present the application of a computer package for generating of projection data for neutron computerized tomography, and in second part, discusses an application of neutron tomography, using the projection data obtained by Monte Carlo technique, for the detection and localization of light materials such as those containing hydrogen, concealed by heavy materials such as iron and lead. For tomographic reconstructions of the samples simulated use was made of only six equal projection angles distributed between 0º and 180º, with reconstruction making use of an algorithm (ARIEM), based on the principle of maximum entropy. With the neutron tomography it was possible to detect and locate polyethylene and water hidden by lead and iron (with 1cm-thick). Thus, it is demonstrated that thermal neutrons tomography is a viable test method which can provide important interior information about test components, so, extremely useful in routine industrial applications.

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

Excreção urinária de 17-Cetoesteroides neutros no cavalo normal e no cavalo castrado

Total urinary neutral 17-steroids were determined in normal and in castrated horses. One liter of a 15-26 hours urine collection was hydrolysed by refluxing with 10% HC1 (v/v) for ten minutes and extracted with peroxyde-free ethyl ether. The extract was purified by washing with saturated NaHCO³ and KOH solutions. One half of the crude neutral fraction was fractionated with Girard's "T" reagent . The Zimmermann reaction was performed both in the ketonic and in the crude neutral extracts, using alcoholic 2.5N KOH and a 60 minutes period for the colour development in the dark. Optical density measuments were made in a grating Coleman Universal Spectrophotometer at 420 mµ and 520mµ; for the crude neutral fraction a colour correction equation was applied. The aliquot fraction used for colorimety was adjusted for keeping optical density measurements within the range 0.2 to 0.7. Androsterone (mp. 184-184.5°C) with an absorption maximum at 290.5 mµ (Beckman Model DU Spectrophotometer) was used as a reference standard. Table I, ilustrates the results obtained. At the 0.05 probability level there is a significant difference among castrated and normal group means (Fischer's "t" test.) when were used the data obtained from the ketonic fractions; in spite of the use of a colour correction applied for inespecific chromogens, the same results could not be obtained with the crude neutral fractions, Since Girard's reagent fractionation is generaly accepted as the best method for correcting the inespecific chromogen interference in the determination of the 17-ketosteroids by the Zimmermann reaction, we emphasize the value of the results obtained with the ketonic fractions. From these results it appears, as occurs in others mammals, that castrated horses show a lower level of urinary 17-ketosteroids excretion than the normal horses. The significance of the horse testis contribution for the neutral urinary steroid metabolites is discussed. Since horse urine has a low androgenic activity, the fractionation of the neutral 17-ketosteroids must be studied more accurately.

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

She’s a femme fatale: low-density larval development produces good disease vectors

Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.

Method to estimate soil macroporosity and microporosity based on sand content and bulk density

Macroporosity is often used in the determination of soil compaction. Reduced macroporosity can lead to poor drainage, low root aeration and soil degradation. The aim of this study was to develop and test different models to estimate macro and microporosity efficiently, using multiple regression. Ten soils were selected within a large range of textures: sand (Sa) 0.07-0.84; silt 0.03-0.24; clay 0.13-0.78 kg kg-1 and subjected to three compaction levels (three bulk densities, BD). Two models with similar accuracy were selected, with a mean error of about 0.02 m³ m-3 (2 %). The model y = a + b.BD + c.Sa, named model 2, was selected for its simplicity to estimate Macro (Ma), Micro (Mi) or total porosity (TP): Ma = 0.693 - 0.465 BD + 0.212 Sa; Mi = 0.337 + 0.120 BD - 0.294 Sa; TP = 1.030 - 0.345 BD 0.082 Sa; porosity values were expressed in m³ m-3; BD in kg dm-3; and Sa in kg kg-1. The model was tested with 76 datum set of several other authors. An error of about 0.04 m³ m-3 (4 %) was observed. Simulations of variations in BD as a function of Sa are presented for Ma = 0 and Ma = 0.10 (10 %). The macroporosity equation was remodeled to obtain other compaction indexes: a) to simulate maximum bulk density (MBD) as a function of Sa (Equation 11), in agreement with literature data; b) to simulate relative bulk density (RBD) as a function of BD and Sa (Equation 13); c) another model to simulate RBD as a function of Ma and Sa (Equation 16), confirming the independence of this variable in relation to Sa for a fixed value of macroporosity and, also, proving the hypothesis of Hakansson & Lipiec that RBD = 0.87 corresponds approximately to 10 % macroporosity (Ma = 0.10 m³ m-3).

Soil Aggregation, Organic Carbon Concentration, and Soil Bulk Density As Affected by Cover Crop Species in a No-Tillage System

Soil aggregation and the distribution of total organic carbon (TOC) may be affected by soil tillage and cover crops. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of crop rotation with cover crops on soil aggregation, TOC concentration in the soil aggregate fractions, and soil bulk density under a no-tillage system (NTS) and conventional tillage system (CTS, one plowing and two disking). This was a three-year study with cover crop/rice/cover crop/rice rotations in the Brazilian Cerrado. A randomized block experimental design with six treatments and three replications was used. The cover crops (treatments) were: fallow, Panicum maximum, Brachiaria ruziziensis, Brachiaria brizantha, and millet (Pennisetum glaucum). An additional treatment, fallow plus CTS, was included as a control. Soil samples were collected at the depths of 0.00-0.05 m, 0.05-0.10 m, and 0.10-0.20 m after the second rice harvest. The treatments under the NTS led to greater stability in the soil aggregates (ranging from 86.33 to 95.37 %) than fallow plus CTS (ranging from 74.62 to 85.94 %). Fallow plus CTS showed the highest number of aggregates smaller than 2 mm. The cover crops affected soil bulk density differently, and the millet treatment in the NTS had the lowest values. The cover crops without incorporation provided the greatest accumulation of TOC in the soil surface layers. The TOC concentration was positively correlated with the aggregate stability index in all layers and negatively correlated with bulk density in the 0.00-0.10 m layer.

Potato crop growth as affected by nitrogen and plant density

Growth and development variables and dry matter characteristics were studied for cultivar Snowden of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) to evaluate nitrogen and plant density influence. Disregarding ending of season plant stress, the average number of actives haulms per plant was five and it was not affected by plant spacing. However, seasonal and final number of active haulms per plant were increased at 200 kg/ha of nitrogen. Maximum stem elongation was reached quickly with double density and had the tendency to keep constant at the highest and lowest nitrogen levels after 70 days after planting. Specific stem mass defined as mass per unit stem length was established as an indirect measure of stem thickness and load capacity. Specific leaf mass position in plant was higher at upper stem leaves, increased as plant density increased and did not vary markedly over time throughout the season. The rate of leaf appearance increased drastically due to more branching caused by high nitrogen level, and increased above ground dry matter per plant. Canopy growth and development influenced main tuber yield components. The number of active tubers per haulm decreased after 60 days after planting showing that tuberization is reversible. Tuber growth functions were established allowing the estimate of dry biomass partitioning coefficients for each plant organ.

Quince 'CPP': new dwarf rootstock for pear trees on organic and high density planting

In Brazil, pear production presents the same incipient situation over the last 15 years, due mostly to low production technology. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate the development, growth and production of the pear tree cultivars Cascatense, Tenra and Hosui grafted on 'CPP' quince rootstock, using 'FT' pear as interstem. This trial was carried out in Guarapuava, State of Paraná, Southern region of Brazil, by five productive cycles. The pear trees were planted in September of 2004, spaced at 1.0 x 4.0 m (2,500 trees ha-1), trained to the modified central leader, on a Four-wire trellis, with drip irrigation and cultivated under organic production system. The following variables were evaluated: sprouting, anthesis, yield, fruit weight, soluble solids content, titratable acidity, pulp firmness, canopy area per plant and per hectare and trunk diameter. The pear tree cv. Tenra was outstanding most of the years for fruit yield, and, consequently, showed the highest accumulated yield over the period (51.6 t ha-1), followed by the cultivars Cascatense (39.7 t ha-1) and Hosui (18.7 t ha-1). All pear cultivars presented suitable physical-chemical characteristics for commercial purposes, with minimal average soluble solids content of 11% at harvest. The maximum canopy area per hectare was attained for cv. Cascatense (3063.2 m²), that was considered insufficient for a high yield. These results suggest the needs for studies with higher density planting and other training systems, searching optimize canopy volume. One of the most limiting factors in the organic pear orchard was the incidence of pear dieback caused by Botriosphaeria dothidea, severe more often in pear trees cv. Hosui.