A New Model to Determine the Dispersion of Fatigue Damage Evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation.

Influence of Spironolactone on Matrix Metalloproteinase-2 in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Background: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are a family of enzymes important for the resorption of extracellular matrices, control of vascular remodeling and repair. Increased activity of MMP2 has been demonstrated in heart failure, and in acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF) a decrease in circulating MMPs has been demonstrated along with successful treatment. Objective: Our aim was to test the influence of spironolactone in MMP2 levels. Methods: Secondary analysis of a prospective, interventional study including 100 patients with ADHF. Fifty patients were non-randomly assigned to spironolactone (100 mg/day) plus standard ADHF therapy (spironolactone group) or standard ADHF therapy alone (control group). Results: Spironolactone group patients were younger and had lower creatinine and urea levels (all p < 0.05). Baseline MMP2, NT-pro BNP and weight did not differ between spironolactone and control groups. A trend towards a more pronounced decrease in MMP2 from baseline to day 3 was observed in the spironolactone group (-21 [-50 to 19] vs 1.5 [-26 to 38] ng/mL, p = 0.06). NT-pro BNP and weight also had a greater decrease in the spironolactone group. The proportion of patients with a decrease in MMP2 levels from baseline to day 3 was also likely to be greater in the spironolactone group (50% vs 66.7%), but without statistical significance. Correlations between MMP2, NT-pro BNP and weight variation were not statistically significant. Conclusion: MMP2 levels are increased in ADHF. Patients treated with spironolactone may have a greater reduction in MMP2 levels.

Multivariate statistical analysis to support the minimum streamflow regionalization

ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.

Assessing usual dietary intake in complex sample design surveys: the National Dietary Survey

The National Cancer Institute (NCI) method allows the distributions of usual intake of nutrients and foods to be estimated. This method can be used in complex surveys. However, the user must perform additional calculations, such as balanced repeated replication (BRR), in order to obtain standard errors and confidence intervals for the percentiles and mean from the distribution of usual intake. The objective is to highlight adaptations of the NCI method using data from the National Dietary Survey. The application of the NCI method was exemplified analyzing the total energy (kcal) and fruit (g) intake, comparing estimations of mean and standard deviation that were based on the complex design of the Brazilian survey with those assuming simple random sample. Although means point estimates were similar, estimates of standard error using the complex design increased by up to 60% compared to simple random sample. Thus, for valid estimates of food and energy intake for the population, all of the sampling characteristics of the surveys should be taken into account because when these characteristics are neglected, statistical analysis may produce underestimated standard errors that would compromise the results and the conclusions of the survey.

Institutional and matrix support and its relationship with primary healthcare

OBJECTIVE To analyze whether the level of institutional and matrix support is associated with better certification of primary healthcare teams.METHODS In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated two kinds of primary healthcare support – 14,489 teams received institutional support and 14,306 teams received matrix support. Logistic regression models were applied. In the institutional support model, the independent variable was “level of support” (as calculated by the sum of supporting activities for both modalities). In the matrix support model, in turn, the independent variables were the supporting activities. The multivariate analysis has considered variables with p < 0.20. The model was adjusted by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.RESULTS The teams had institutional and matrix supporting activities (84.0% and 85.0%), respectively, with 55.0% of them performing between six and eight activities. For the institutional support, we have observed 1.96 and 3.77 chances for teams who had medium and high levels of support to have very good or good certification, respectively. For the matrix support, the chances of their having very good or good certification were 1.79 and 3.29, respectively. Regarding to the association between institutional support activities and the certification, the very good or good certification was positively associated with self-assessment (OR = 1.95), permanent education (OR = 1.43), shared evaluation (OR = 1.40), and supervision and evaluation of indicators (OR = 1.37). In regards to the matrix support, the very good or good certification was positively associated with permanent education (OR = 1.50), interventions in the territory (OR = 1.30), and discussion in the work processes (OR = 1.23).CONCLUSIONS In Brazil, supporting activities are being incorporated in primary healthcare, and there is an association between the level of support, both matrix and institutional, and the certification result.

Thermostability of heterophile antibodies from human sera infected with Schistosoma mansoni and geo-helminths: an immuno-metric statistical analysis

Antibody in human sera that induces lysis of sheep erythrocytes in hemolytic assay was investigated. The present study showed that the presence in serum of the thermostable cytolytic anti-sheep red blood cells antibodies is dependent on the Schistosoma mansoni infection, and this is more frequent in adults than in children. The thermostable characteristic of hemolysins in normal sera was not dependent on the presence of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura or hookworm geo-helminths. Further, thermostable complement-activating heterophile antibodies were noticed in children in association with massive number of S. mansoni eggs. The results were obtained by using the z- and the chi-square tests. The z-test allows us to formulate a one-sided alternative, i.e., a tendency of one of the attributes. On the other hand, the chi-square test analyzes the independence between attributes by using a contingency table. Besides the obtained results being interesting in the field of schistosomiasis mansoni, they can provide a new insight into the use of statistics in medical science.

Using epidemiological survey data to infer geographic distributions of leishmaniasis vector species

An important aspect of tropical medicine is analysis of geographic aspects of risk of disease transmission, which for lack of detailed public health data must often be reduced to an understanding of the distributions of critical species such as vectors and reservoirs. We examine the applicability of a new technique, ecological niche modeling, to the challenge of understanding distributions of such species based on municipalities in the state of São Paulo in which a group of 5 Lutzomyia sandfly species have been recorded. The technique, when tested based on independent occurrence data, yielded highly significant predictions of species' distributions; minimum sample sizes for effective predictions were around 40 municipalities.

Histological comparison of the alar nasal cartilages in unilateral cleft lip

Patients with unilateral cleft lip display characteristic nasal changes that are independent of the degree of deformity. Defenders of the intrinsic theory consider these deformities to be due to embryogenic alterations of the alar nasal cartilages. Those that propose the extrinsic theory defend the thesis that the deformity is due to disorganization of the perioral muscles deformed by the cleft. The purpose of this study is to contribute histological evidence to help clarify the issue. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Specimens of the lateral portion of both the healthy and the cleft side of the alar cartilages were obtained from 18 patients. These uniformly cut specimens were stained by hematoxylin and eosin. Samples from 2 patients were excluded due to imperfections. The same pathologist examined all the slides. He was unaware of the origins of the specimens; he counted the number of chondrocytes and quantified the cartilage matrixes. RESULTS: All data was analyzed statistically, and no significant statistical differences were apparent, either in the number of chondrocytes or the cartilage matrix between the healthy side and the cleft side. DISCUSSION: These results apparently support the group that defend the extrinsic theory; nevertheless, the doubt about the composition of the cartilage matrix remains, not only concerning the glycosaminoglycans that compose them, but also regarding elastin and collagen and its linkages that can cause different degrees of collagen consistency.

Enalapril alters the formation of the collagen matrix in spontaneously hypertensive rats

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of the inhibition of the angiotensin-converting enzyme on the collagen matrix (CM) of the heart of newborn spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) during embryonic development. METHODS: The study comprised the 2 following groups of SHR (n=5 each): treated group - rats conceived from SHR females treated with enalapril maleate (15 mg. kg-1.day-1) during gestation; and nontreated group - offspring of nontreated females. The newborns were euthanized within the first 24 hours after birth and their hearts were removed and processed for histological study. Three fields per animal were considered for computer-assisted digital analysis and determination of the volume densities (Vv) of the nuclei and CM. The images were segmented with the aid of Image Pro Plus® 4.5.029 software (Media Cybernetics). RESULTS: No difference was observed between the treated and nontreated groups in regard to body mass, cardiac mass, and the relation between cardiac and body mass. A significant reduction in the Vv[matrix] and a concomitant increase in the Vv[nuclei] were observed in the treated group as compared with those in the nontreated group. CONCLUSION: The treatment with enalapril of hypertensive rats during pregnancy alters the collagen content and structure of the myocardium of newborns.

Multivariate Analysis for Animal Selection in Experimental Research

Background: Several researchers seek methods for the selection of homogeneous groups of animals in experimental studies, a fact justified because homogeneity is an indispensable prerequisite for casualization of treatments. The lack of robust methods that comply with statistical and biological principles is the reason why researchers use empirical or subjective methods, influencing their results. Objective: To develop a multivariate statistical model for the selection of a homogeneous group of animals for experimental research and to elaborate a computational package to use it. Methods: The set of echocardiographic data of 115 male Wistar rats with supravalvular aortic stenosis (AoS) was used as an example of model development. Initially, the data were standardized, and became dimensionless. Then, the variance matrix of the set was submitted to principal components analysis (PCA), aiming at reducing the parametric space and at retaining the relevant variability. That technique established a new Cartesian system into which the animals were allocated, and finally the confidence region (ellipsoid) was built for the profile of the animals’ homogeneous responses. The animals located inside the ellipsoid were considered as belonging to the homogeneous batch; those outside the ellipsoid were considered spurious. Results: The PCA established eight descriptive axes that represented the accumulated variance of the data set in 88.71%. The allocation of the animals in the new system and the construction of the confidence region revealed six spurious animals as compared to the homogeneous batch of 109 animals. Conclusion: The biometric criterion presented proved to be effective, because it considers the animal as a whole, analyzing jointly all parameters measured, in addition to having a small discard rate.

Análise estatística da distribuição de Poisson

The general properties of POISSON distributions and their relations to the binomial distribuitions are discussed. Two methods of statistical analysis are dealt with in detail: X2-test. In order to carry out the X2-test, the mean frequency and the theoretical frequencies for all classes are calculated. Than the observed and the calculated frequencies are compared, using the well nown formula: f(obs) - f(esp) 2; i(esp). When the expected frequencies are small, one must not forget that the value of X2 may only be calculated, if the expected frequencies are biger than 5. If smaller values should occur, the frequencies of neighboroughing classes must ge pooled. As a second test reintroduced by BRIEGER, consists in comparing the observed and expected error standard of the series. The observed error is calculated by the general formula: δ + Σ f . VK n-1 where n represents the number of cases. The theoretical error of a POISSON series with mean frequency m is always ± Vm. These two values may be compared either by dividing the observed by the theoretical error and using BRIEGER's tables for # or by dividing the respective variances and using SNEDECOR's tables for F. The degree of freedom for the observed error is one less the number of cases studied, and that of the theoretical error is always infinite. In carrying out these tests, one important point must never be overlloked. The values for the first class, even if no concrete cases of the type were observed, must always be zero, an dthe value of the subsequent classes must be 1, 2, 3, etc.. This is easily seen in some of the classical experiments. For instance in BORKEWITZ example of accidents in Prussian armee corps, the classes are: no, one, two, etc., accidents. When counting the frequency of bacteria, these values are: no, one, two, etc., bacteria or cultures of bacteria. Ins studies of plant diseases equally the frequencies are : no, one, two, etc., plants deseased. Howewer more complicated cases may occur. For instance, when analising the degree of polyembriony, frequently the case of "no polyembryony" corresponds to the occurrence of one embryo per each seed. Thus the classes are not: no, one, etc., embryo per seed, but they are: no additional embryo, one additional embryo, etc., per seed with at least one embryo. Another interestin case was found by BRIEGER in genetic studies on the number os rows in maize. Here the minimum number is of course not: no rows, but: no additional beyond eight rows. The next class is not: nine rows, but: 10 rows, since the row number varies always in pairs of rows. Thus the value of successive classes are: no additional pair of rows beyond 8, one additional pair (or 10 rows), two additional pairs (or 12 rows) etc.. The application of the methods is finally shown on the hand of three examples : the number of seeds per fruit in the oranges M Natal" and "Coco" and in "Calamondin". As shown in the text and the tables, the agreement with a POISSON series is very satisfactory in the first two cases. In the third case BRIEGER's error test indicated a significant reduction of variability, and the X2 test showed that there were two many fruits with 4 or 5 seeds and too few with more or with less seeds. Howewer the fact that no fruit was found without seed, may be taken to indicate that in Calamondin fruits are not fully parthenocarpic and may develop only with one seed at the least. Thus a new analysis was carried out, on another class basis. As value for the first class the following value was accepted: no additional seed beyond the indispensable minimum number of one seed, and for the later classes the values were: one, two, etc., additional seeds. Using this new basis for all calculations, a complete agreement of the observed and expected frequencies, of the correspondig POISSON series was obtained, thus proving that our hypothesis of the impossibility of obtaining fruits without any seed was correct for Calamondin while the other two oranges were completely parthenocarpic and fruits without seeds did occur.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Pseudis minuta (Anura, Hylidae, Hylinae) and environmental variables related to its reproductive activity in Reserva Biológica do Lami, southern Brazil

We studied the reproductive biology of a population of Pseudis minuta Günther, 1858 from Reserva Biológica do Lami (30º 15' S; 51º 05' W), Porto Alegre, southern Brazil. We assessed the spatial and temporal distribution of individuals (males, females, juveniles) and explored potential relationships with environmental variables. Field activities encompassed bimonthly surveys in three semi-permanent ponds, each one during approximately two days and two nights, from August 2004 to July 2005. We recorded differences in the sites used by males, females and juveniles, with males occupying deeper and more distant places from the border. The temporal distributions of individuals, calling sites and amplectant pairs indicated that the reproductive activity of P. minuta is related to some of the studied abiotic factors. Calling males presented statistical differences in relation to non-calling males for all daily abiotic variables analyzed (air temperature, water temperature, relative humidity and rainfall), as well as to monthly temperature and rainfall. The number of active males, females and juveniles was influenced by at least one of the daily or monthly environmental variables analyzed. We conclude that the reproduction in this species is seasonal and may be partially determined by abiotic factors.