14 resultados para Markov chains hidden Markov models Viterbi algorithm Forward-Backward algorithm maximum likelihood
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
The objective of this work was to verify the existence of a lethal locus in a eucalyptus hybrid population, and to quantify the segregation distortion in the linkage group 3 of the Eucalyptus genome. A E. grandis x E. urophylla hybrid population, which segregates for rust resistance, was genotyped with 19 microsatellite markers belonging to linkage group 3 of the Eucalyptus genome. To quantify the segregation distortion, maximum likelihood (ML) models, specific to outbreeding populations, were used. These models consider the observed marker genotypes and the lethal locus viability as parameters. The ML solutions were obtained using the expectation‑maximization algorithm. A lethal locus in the linkage group 3 was verified and mapped, with high confidence, between the microssatellites EMBRA 189 e EMBRA 122. This lethal locus causes an intense gametic selection from the male side. Its map position is 25 cM from the locus which controls the rust resistance in this population.
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Pressures on the Brazilian Amazon forest have been accentuated by agricultural activities practiced by families encouraged to settle in this region in the 1970s by the colonization program of the government. The aims of this study were to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of land cover and land use (LCLU) in the lower Tapajós region, in the state of Pará. We contrast 11 watersheds that are generally representative of the colonization dynamics in the region. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images from three different years, 1986, 2001, and 2009, were analyzed with Geographic Information Systems. Individual images were subject to an unsupervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classification algorithm available on GRASS. The classes retained for the representation of LCLU in this study were: (1) slightly altered old-growth forest, (2) succession forest, (3) crop land and pasture, and (4) bare soil. The analysis and observation of general trends in eleven watersheds shows that LCLU is changing very rapidly. The average deforestation of old-growth forest in all the watersheds was estimated at more than 30% for the period of 1986 to 2009. The local-scale analysis of watersheds reveals the complexity of LCLU, notably in relation to large changes in the temporal and spatial evolution of watersheds. Proximity to the sprawling city of Itaituba is related to the highest rate of deforestation in two watersheds. The opening of roads such as the Transamazonian highway is associated to the second highest rate of deforestation in three watersheds.
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Understanding the different background landscapes in which malaria transmission occurs is fundamental to understanding malaria epidemiology and to designing effective local malaria control programs. Geology, geomorphology, vegetation, climate, land use, and anopheline distribution were used as a basis for an ecological classification of the state of Roraima, Brazil, in the northern Amazon Basin, focused on the natural history of malaria and transmission. We used unsupervised maximum likelihood classification, principal components analysis, and weighted overlay with equal contribution analyses to fine-scale thematic maps that resulted in clustered regions. We used ecological niche modeling techniques to develop a fine-scale picture of malaria vector distributions in the state. Eight ecoregions were identified and malaria-related aspects are discussed based on this classification, including 5 types of dense tropical rain forest and 3 types of savannah. Ecoregions formed by dense tropical rain forest were named as montane (ecoregion I), submontane (II), plateau (III), lowland (IV), and alluvial (V). Ecoregions formed by savannah were divided into steppe (VI, campos de Roraima), savannah (VII, cerrado), and wetland (VIII, campinarana). Such ecoregional mappings are important tools in integrated malaria control programs that aim to identify specific characteristics of malaria transmission, classify transmission risk, and define priority areas and appropriate interventions. For some areas, extension of these approaches to still-finer resolutions will provide an improved picture of malaria transmission patterns.
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This study was carried out to evaluate the molecular pattern of all available Brazilian human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 Env (n = 15) and Pol (n = 43) nucleotide sequences via epitope prediction, physico-chemical analysis, and protein potential sites identification, giving support to the Brazilian AIDS vaccine program. In 12 previously described peptides of the Env sequences we found 12 epitopes, while in 4 peptides of the Pol sequences we found 4 epitopes. The total variation on the amino acid composition was 9 and 17% for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and class II Env epitopes, respectively. After analyzing the Pol sequences, results revealed a total amino acid variation of 0.75% for HLA-I and HLA-II epitopes. In 5 of the 12 Env epitopes the physico-chemical analysis demonstrated that the mutations magnified the antigenicity profile. The potential protein domain analysis of Env sequences showed the loss of a CK-2 phosphorylation site caused by D197N mutation in one epitope, and a N-glycosylation site caused by S246Y and V247I mutations in another epitope. Besides, the analysis of selection pressure have found 8 positive selected sites (w = 9.59) using the codon-based substitution models and maximum-likelihood methods. These studies underscore the importance of this Env region for the virus fitness, for the host immune response and, therefore, for the development of vaccine candidates.
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The structural modeling of spatial dependence, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to determine parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values at unsampled points by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in sampled data. The purpose of this study was to use diagnostic techniques in Gaussian spatial linear models in geostatistics to evaluate the sensitivity of maximum likelihood and restrict maximum likelihood estimators to small perturbations in these data. For this purpose, studies with simulated and experimental data were conducted. Results with simulated data showed that the diagnostic techniques were efficient to identify the perturbation in data. The results with real data indicated that atypical values among the sampled data may have a strong influence on thematic maps, thus changing the spatial dependence structure. The application of diagnostic techniques should be part of any geostatistical analysis, to ensure a better quality of the information from thematic maps.
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Soil surveys are the main source of spatial information on soils and have a range of different applications, mainly in agriculture. The continuity of this activity has however been severely compromised, mainly due to a lack of governmental funding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of two different classifiers (artificial neural networks and a maximum likelihood algorithm) in the prediction of soil classes in the northwest of the state of Rio de Janeiro. Terrain attributes such as elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature and compound topographic index (CTI) and indices of clay minerals, iron oxide and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from Landsat 7 ETM+ sensor imagery, were used as discriminating variables. The two classifiers were trained and validated for each soil class using 300 and 150 samples respectively, representing the characteristics of these classes in terms of the discriminating variables. According to the statistical tests, the accuracy of the classifier based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was greater than of the classic Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC). Comparing the results with 126 points of reference showed that the resulting ANN map (73.81 %) was superior to the MLC map (57.94 %). The main errors when using the two classifiers were caused by: a) the geological heterogeneity of the area coupled with problems related to the geological map; b) the depth of lithic contact and/or rock exposure, and c) problems with the environmental correlation model used due to the polygenetic nature of the soils. This study confirms that the use of terrain attributes together with remote sensing data by an ANN approach can be a tool to facilitate soil mapping in Brazil, primarily due to the availability of low-cost remote sensing data and the ease by which terrain attributes can be obtained.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate the application of the spectral-temporal response surface (STRS) classification method on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 250 m) sensor images in order to estimate soybean areas in Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The classification was carried out using the maximum likelihood algorithm (MLA) adapted to the STRS method. Thirty segments of 30x30 km were chosen along the main agricultural regions of Mato Grosso state, using data from the summer season of 2005/2006 (from October to March), and were mapped based on fieldwork data, TM/Landsat-5 and CCD/CBERS-2 images. Five thematic classes were considered: Soybean, Forest, Cerrado, Pasture and Bare Soil. The classification by the STRS method was done over an area intersected with a subset of 30x30-km segments. In regions with soybean predominance, STRS classification overestimated in 21.31% of the reference values. In regions where soybean fields were less prevalent, the classifier overestimated 132.37% in the acreage of the reference. The overall classification accuracy was 80%. MODIS sensor images and the STRS algorithm showed to be promising for the classification of soybean areas in regions with the predominance of large farms. However, the results for fragmented areas and smaller farms were less efficient, overestimating soybean areas.
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The air dry-bulb temperature (t db),as well as the black globe humidity index (BGHI), exert great influence on the development of broiler chickens during their heating phase. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the structure and the magnitude of the t db and BGHI spatial variability, using geostatistics tools such as semivariogram analysis and also producing kriging maps. The experiment was conducted in the west mesoregion of the states of Minas Gerais in 2010, in a commercial broiler house with heating system consisting of two furnaces that heat the air indirectly, in the firsts 14 days of the birds' life. The data were registered at intervals of five minutes in the period from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. The variables were evaluated by variograms fitted by residual maximum likelihood (REML) testing the Spherical and Exponential models. Kriging maps were generated based on the best model used to fit the variogram. It was possible to characterize the variability of the t db and BGHI, which allowed observing the spatial dependence by using geostatistics techniques. In addition, the use of geostatistics and distribution maps made possible to identify problems in the heating system in regions inside the broiler house that may harm the development of chicks.
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The objective of this study consisted on mapping the use and soil occupation and evaluation of the quality of irrigation water used in Salto do Lontra, in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Images of the satellite SPOT-5 were used to perform the supervised classification of the Maximum Likelihood algorithm - MAXVER, and the water quality parameters analyzed were pH, EC, HCO3-, Cl-, PO4(3-), NO3-, turbidity, temperature and thermotolerant coliforms in two distinct rainfall periods. The water quality data were subjected to statistical analysis by the techniques of PCA and FA, to identify the most relevant variables in assessing the quality of irrigation water. The characterization of soil use and occupation by the classifier MAXVER allowed the identification of the following classes: crops, bare soil/stubble, forests and urban area. The PCA technique applied to irrigation water quality data explained 53.27% of the variation in water quality among the sampled points. Nitrate, thermotolerant coliforms, temperature, electrical conductivity and bicarbonate were the parameters that best explained the spatial variation of water quality.
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The main objective of the present study was to upgrade a clinical gamma camera to obtain high resolution tomographic images of small animal organs. The system is based on a clinical gamma camera to which we have adapted a special-purpose pinhole collimator and a device for positioning and rotating the target based on a computer-controlled step motor. We developed a software tool to reconstruct the target’s three-dimensional distribution of emission from a set of planar projections, based on the maximum likelihood algorithm. We present details on the hardware and software implementation. We imaged phantoms and heart and kidneys of rats. When using pinhole collimators, the spatial resolution and sensitivity of the imaging system depend on parameters such as the detector-to-collimator and detector-to-target distances and pinhole diameter. In this study, we reached an object voxel size of 0.6 mm and spatial resolution better than 2.4 and 1.7 mm full width at half maximum when 1.5- and 1.0-mm diameter pinholes were used, respectively. Appropriate sensitivity to study the target of interest was attained in both cases. Additionally, we show that as few as 12 projections are sufficient to attain good quality reconstructions, a result that implies a significant reduction of acquisition time and opens the possibility for radiotracer dynamic studies. In conclusion, a high resolution single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) system was developed using a commercial clinical gamma camera, allowing the acquisition of detailed volumetric images of small animal organs. This type of system has important implications for research areas such as Cardiology, Neurology or Oncology.
Resumo:
The single photon emission microscope (SPEM) is an instrument developed to obtain high spatial resolution single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images of small structures inside the mouse brain. SPEM consists of two independent imaging devices, which combine a multipinhole collimator, a high-resolution, thallium-doped cesium iodide [CsI(Tl)] columnar scintillator, a demagnifying/intensifier tube, and an electron-multiplying charge-coupling device (CCD). Collimators have 300- and 450-µm diameter pinholes on tungsten slabs, in hexagonal arrays of 19 and 7 holes. Projection data are acquired in a photon-counting strategy, where CCD frames are stored at 50 frames per second, with a radius of rotation of 35 mm and magnification factor of one. The image reconstruction software tool is based on the maximum likelihood algorithm. Our aim was to evaluate the spatial resolution and sensitivity attainable with the seven-pinhole imaging device, together with the linearity for quantification on the tomographic images, and to test the instrument in obtaining tomographic images of different mouse organs. A spatial resolution better than 500 µm and a sensitivity of 21.6 counts·s-1·MBq-1 were reached, as well as a correlation coefficient between activity and intensity better than 0.99, when imaging 99mTc sources. Images of the thyroid, heart, lungs, and bones of mice were registered using 99mTc-labeled radiopharmaceuticals in times appropriate for routine preclinical experimentation of <1 h per projection data set. Detailed experimental protocols and images of the aforementioned organs are shown. We plan to extend the instrument's field of view to fix larger animals and to combine data from both detectors to reduce the acquisition time or applied activity.
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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.
Resumo:
Os fatores que envolvem os processos da dinâmica da floresta influenciam a sua biodiversidade e, portanto, a qualidade da floresta. A definição de estratégias que envolve a proteção e o uso adequado da floresta manejada e a recuperação de áreas já degradadas tornam-se possível com o estudo da estrutura e dinâmica da floresta primária por meio de informações como a mortalidade, o recrutamento e a permanência das árvores no sistema florestal. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a dinâmica de uma floresta não perturbada e fazer projeções da dinâmica florestal usando a matriz de transição probabilística (Cadeia de Markov). As taxas de recrutamento, mortalidade e incremento foram determinadas a partir de inventários florestais realizados em dois transectos, nos sentidos Norte-Sul e Leste-Oeste (20 x 2500 m cada, totalizando 10 ha), localizados no km 50 da BR 174, na estrada vicinal ZF-2, Manaus/AM, nos anos de 2000 e 2004. A floresta acumulou 8,34 t.ha-1.ano-1 de biomassa fresca acima do solo. De acordo com projeção para 2008, o número total de árvores diminuirá em 2,67% (de 5987 indivíduos (2004) para 5827 (2008)) e a mortalidade será 15% maior (de 264 (2004) para 311 (2008)). O teste Qui-quadrado mostrou que não há diferença significativa (1% de probabilidade) entre as informações coletadas e projetadas. Esses resultados permitem concluir que a Cadeia de Markov é um eficiente instrumento para projetar a dinâmica da floresta natural, contribuindo para o planejamento em curto prazo das atividades que utilizam os recursos florestais.