45 resultados para Markov Transition Matrix

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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If the world is not to jeopardize the chances for human life on Earth, climate change must be mitigated; therefore, achieving low carbon development is crucial. China is the world's greatest GHG emitter, energy producer and energy consumer; investigating its energy-climate policy developments and international positions are of utmost importance to understand and tackle current stumbling blocks of the global energy and climate governance.

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OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected, since this population will grow from 5% to 14% of the Brazilian population over the next 50 years. A progressive reduction in HIV-related cases in adults will most likely occur. The difficulty in diagnosing tuberculosis in old age leads to increased mortality.

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OBJECTIVE To analyze whether the level of institutional and matrix support is associated with better certification of primary healthcare teams.METHODS In this cross-sectional study, we evaluated two kinds of primary healthcare support – 14,489 teams received institutional support and 14,306 teams received matrix support. Logistic regression models were applied. In the institutional support model, the independent variable was “level of support” (as calculated by the sum of supporting activities for both modalities). In the matrix support model, in turn, the independent variables were the supporting activities. The multivariate analysis has considered variables with p < 0.20. The model was adjusted by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.RESULTS The teams had institutional and matrix supporting activities (84.0% and 85.0%), respectively, with 55.0% of them performing between six and eight activities. For the institutional support, we have observed 1.96 and 3.77 chances for teams who had medium and high levels of support to have very good or good certification, respectively. For the matrix support, the chances of their having very good or good certification were 1.79 and 3.29, respectively. Regarding to the association between institutional support activities and the certification, the very good or good certification was positively associated with self-assessment (OR = 1.95), permanent education (OR = 1.43), shared evaluation (OR = 1.40), and supervision and evaluation of indicators (OR = 1.37). In regards to the matrix support, the very good or good certification was positively associated with permanent education (OR = 1.50), interventions in the territory (OR = 1.30), and discussion in the work processes (OR = 1.23).CONCLUSIONS In Brazil, supporting activities are being incorporated in primary healthcare, and there is an association between the level of support, both matrix and institutional, and the certification result.

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The one-generational metric changes occurring in Triatoma flavida (Hemiptera: Triatominae) when carried from its wild habitat (caves) to laboratory, were examined using traditional morphometric techniques. As for other species of Triatoma, Rhodnius or Panstrongylus studied in similar conditions, a significant reduction of head, thorax and wing size was observed. Sexual dimorphism of the wings, while present in the wild sample, was not detected anymore in the laboratory individuals. Biological significance and epidemiological importance are discussed.

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The distinction between convective and stratiform precipitation profiles around various precipitating systems existent in tropical regions is very important to the global atmospheric circulation, which is extremely sensitive to vertical latent heat distribution. In South America, the convective activity responds to the Intraseasonal Oscillation (IOS). This paper analyzes a disdrometer and a radar profiler data, installed in the Ji-Paraná airport, RO, Brazil, for the field experiment WETAMC/LBA & TRMM/LBA, during January and February of 1999. The microphysical analysis of wind regimes associated with IOS showed a large difference in type, size and microphysical processes of hydrometeor growth in each wind regime: easterly regimes had more turbulence and consequently convective precipitation formation, and westerly regimes had a more stratiform precipitation formation.

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Os fatores que envolvem os processos da dinâmica da floresta influenciam a sua biodiversidade e, portanto, a qualidade da floresta. A definição de estratégias que envolve a proteção e o uso adequado da floresta manejada e a recuperação de áreas já degradadas tornam-se possível com o estudo da estrutura e dinâmica da floresta primária por meio de informações como a mortalidade, o recrutamento e a permanência das árvores no sistema florestal. Este trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar a dinâmica de uma floresta não perturbada e fazer projeções da dinâmica florestal usando a matriz de transição probabilística (Cadeia de Markov). As taxas de recrutamento, mortalidade e incremento foram determinadas a partir de inventários florestais realizados em dois transectos, nos sentidos Norte-Sul e Leste-Oeste (20 x 2500 m cada, totalizando 10 ha), localizados no km 50 da BR 174, na estrada vicinal ZF-2, Manaus/AM, nos anos de 2000 e 2004. A floresta acumulou 8,34 t.ha-1.ano-1 de biomassa fresca acima do solo. De acordo com projeção para 2008, o número total de árvores diminuirá em 2,67% (de 5987 indivíduos (2004) para 5827 (2008)) e a mortalidade será 15% maior (de 264 (2004) para 311 (2008)). O teste Qui-quadrado mostrou que não há diferença significativa (1% de probabilidade) entre as informações coletadas e projetadas. Esses resultados permitem concluir que a Cadeia de Markov é um eficiente instrumento para projetar a dinâmica da floresta natural, contribuindo para o planejamento em curto prazo das atividades que utilizam os recursos florestais.

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Schefflera morototoni fruits are important food source for neotropical frugivorous birds. The objectives of the present study were to record bird species that consumed fruits of S. morototoni in a forest in the transition Cerrado-Amazon Forest, Mato Grosso, Brazil and evaluate the potential of these bird species as seed dispersers of this plant species. During 31 observation hours, from November 1 to 5, 2011, 23 bird species were recorded consuming S. morototoni fruits. Out of these, 20 bird species were considered potential seed dispersers, as they swallow the fruits whole. The species consuming the greatest number of fruits were Aburria cujubi (24% of total consumed fruits), Pteroglossus castanotis (18%), Tangara palmarum (12%), Patagioenas speciosa (11%), Ramphastos toco (8%), and Dacnis lineata (5%). The species T. palmarum showed the highest visit frequency (VF = 1.51), followed by P. castanotis (VF = 0.80), and D. lineata (VF = 0.77). All bird species employed picking foraging method for removal of fruits and in 11 species (48%) this method was the only one used. Agonistic interactions represented 13% of the total number of visits. Dacnis lineata received the highest number of attacks and P. castanotis and Pitangus sulphuratus were the more aggressive species. The high bird richness and the great number of consumed fruits indicated that the fruits of S. morototoni may be an important food resource for birds in the Cerrado-Amazon Forest transition

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of the inhibition of the angiotensin-converting enzyme on the collagen matrix (CM) of the heart of newborn spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR) during embryonic development. METHODS: The study comprised the 2 following groups of SHR (n=5 each): treated group - rats conceived from SHR females treated with enalapril maleate (15 mg. kg-1.day-1) during gestation; and nontreated group - offspring of nontreated females. The newborns were euthanized within the first 24 hours after birth and their hearts were removed and processed for histological study. Three fields per animal were considered for computer-assisted digital analysis and determination of the volume densities (Vv) of the nuclei and CM. The images were segmented with the aid of Image Pro Plus® 4.5.029 software (Media Cybernetics). RESULTS: No difference was observed between the treated and nontreated groups in regard to body mass, cardiac mass, and the relation between cardiac and body mass. A significant reduction in the Vv[matrix] and a concomitant increase in the Vv[nuclei] were observed in the treated group as compared with those in the nontreated group. CONCLUSION: The treatment with enalapril of hypertensive rats during pregnancy alters the collagen content and structure of the myocardium of newborns.

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Background: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are a family of enzymes important for the resorption of extracellular matrices, control of vascular remodeling and repair. Increased activity of MMP2 has been demonstrated in heart failure, and in acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF) a decrease in circulating MMPs has been demonstrated along with successful treatment. Objective: Our aim was to test the influence of spironolactone in MMP2 levels. Methods: Secondary analysis of a prospective, interventional study including 100 patients with ADHF. Fifty patients were non-randomly assigned to spironolactone (100 mg/day) plus standard ADHF therapy (spironolactone group) or standard ADHF therapy alone (control group). Results: Spironolactone group patients were younger and had lower creatinine and urea levels (all p < 0.05). Baseline MMP2, NT-pro BNP and weight did not differ between spironolactone and control groups. A trend towards a more pronounced decrease in MMP2 from baseline to day 3 was observed in the spironolactone group (-21 [-50 to 19] vs 1.5 [-26 to 38] ng/mL, p = 0.06). NT-pro BNP and weight also had a greater decrease in the spironolactone group. The proportion of patients with a decrease in MMP2 levels from baseline to day 3 was also likely to be greater in the spironolactone group (50% vs 66.7%), but without statistical significance. Correlations between MMP2, NT-pro BNP and weight variation were not statistically significant. Conclusion: MMP2 levels are increased in ADHF. Patients treated with spironolactone may have a greater reduction in MMP2 levels.

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ABSTRACT The present study encompasses the species composition and ecological characteristics of the snake community in a Cerrado-Amazon transition zone in Midwest of Brazil (state of Mato Grosso). The data were collected during six excursions to the "Tanguro" (study area) by visual encounter survey, pitfall traps with drift fences and non-systematic sampling. We collected 194 specimens, distributed in 34 species, 26 genera, and eight families. The most abundant species were Crotalus durissus Linnaeus, 1758 (n = 50), Philodryas olfersii (Lichtenstein, 1823) (n = 15), Philodryas nattereri Steindachner, 1870 (n = 13), Xenodon rabdocephalus (Wied, 1824) (n = 12), Lachesis muta (Linnaeus, 1766) (n = 10) and Erythrolamprus almadensis (Wagler, 1824) (n = 10). The composition of species found here represents a combination of Cerrado and Amazonian savanna fauna.

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In an attempt to define the mouse-model for chronic Chagas' disease, a serological, histopathological and ultrastructural study as well as immunotyping of myocardium collagenic matrix were performed on Swiss mice, chronically infected with Trypanosoma cruzi strains: 21 SF and mambaí (Type II); PMN and Bolivia (Type III), spontaneously surviving after 154 to 468 days of infection. Haemagglutination and indirect immunofluorescence tests showed high titres of specific antibodies. The ultrastructural study disclosed the cellular constitution of the inflammatory infiltrate showing the predominance of monocytes, macrophages with intense phagocytic activity, fibroblasts, myofibroblasts and abundant collagen matrix suggesting the association of the inflammatory process with fibrogenesis in chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy. Artertolar and blood capillary alterations together with dissociation of cardiac cells from the capillary wall by edema and inflammation were related to ultrastructural lesions of myocardial cells. Rupture of parasitized cardiac myocells contribute to intensify the inflammatory process in focal areas. Collagen immunotyping showed the predominance of Types III and IV collagen. Collagen degradation and phagocytosis were present suggesting a reversibility of the fibrous process. The mouse model seems to be valuable in the study of the pathogenetic mechanisms in Chagas cardiomyopathy, providing that T. cruzi strains of low virulence and high pathogenecity are used.