Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Risk factors and prevalence of antibodies against hepatitis A virus (HAV) in children from day-care centers, in Goiania, Brazil

A seroepidemiologic survey about hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection was carried out in a group comprising 310 children, ranging in age from 3 months to 9 years, from day-care centers, in Goiania, a middle sized city in the central region of Brazil. The biomarkers employed in the investigation of previous infection include total IgG and IgM anti-HAV antibodies, and for the detection of more recent infection, IgM anti-HAV antibodies were analyzed. The study was performed in 1991 and 1992. According to the results, 69.7% of the children presented total IgG/IgM anti-HAV antibodies, with 60% of the group in the age range of 1 to 3 years. Among 10 day-care centers analyzed, the prevalence of the biomarker IgM anti-HAV was 3.2%, with an uniform distribution of the cases in the group of children ranging in age from 1 to 4 years. Multi-variate analysis was performed to investigate the sociodemographic factors that could influence the results. It was verified that the risk for the infection increased with the length of the attendance in the day-care centers, i.e., the risk for children with attendance of one year or more was 4.7 times higher, when compared with children with one month attendance (CI 95% 2.3-9.9). According to the results, hepatitis A is an endemic infection in day-care centers in the study area. The length of attendance in the day-care settings was demonstrated to be a risk factor for the HAV infection. Such findings suggest that if hepatits A vaccination becomes available as a routine policy in our region, the target group should be children under one year. Moreover, those children should receive the vaccine before they start to attend the day-care centers.

Frequency of eosinophilia and risk factors and their association with Toxocara infection in schoolchildren during a health survey in the north of Lima, Peru

During a health survey in a primary school from the district of Carabayllo (North of Lima, Peru), 200 schoolchildren (96 male and 104 female between five to 12 years old) were randomly selected and divided in two groups (as positive or negative group), according to the serologic result of the Toxocara ELISA test from a total population of 646 schoolchildren. All children were analyzed by hematologic tests to determinate the frequency of eosinophilia and leukocytosis. Additionally, all clinical and epidemiological data were also analyzed to determine their association with toxocariasis. From group of children with positive serology, 40% had some type of eosinophilia in contrast to 19% of children with negative serology, and their association was statistically significant (OR = 2.84, p < 0.001). From all signs and symptoms evaluated, only 'dry cough' was more frequent and statistically significant in the positive serology group (OR = 2.79, p < 0.001). Almost all risk factors evaluated were highly frequent and statistically associated to the positive serology. In conclusion, the presence of eosinophilia and the risk factors evaluated in this population were frequently associated to human toxocariasis.

PREVALENCE, RISK FACTORS AND SYMPTOMS ASSOCIATED TO INTESTINAL PARASITE INFECTIONS AMONG PATIENTS WITH GASTROINTESTINAL DISORDERS IN NAHAVAND, WESTERN IRAN

We studied the prevalence of intestinal parasites (IPs), their risk factors and associated symptoms among patients with gastrointestinal disorders. A total of 1,301 participants aged 22 days-90 years were enrolled in this study. We used a structured questionnaire to obtain socio-demographic and stool examination to investigate intestinal parasite infections. Data analysis was performed using SPSS16. The overall prevalence of intestinal parasites (IPs) was 32.2% (419/1,301). Three hundred and fifty nine cases/1,301 (27.6%) were infected with a single parasite and 60/1,301 cases (4.6%) presented polyparasitism. The most common IP was Blastocystis sp. 350/1,301 (26.9%), followed by Entamoeba coli 38/1,301 (2.92%), Giardia lamblia 30/1,301 (2.3%) and Cryptosporidium spp. 17/1,301 (1.3%). Regarding the socio-demographic variables, educational status (p = 0.001), contact with domestic animals and soil (p = 0.02), age above 15 years (p = 0.001) and seasons (p = 0.001) were significantly associated to intestinal parasitic infections. Concerning clinical characteristics, the presence of IPs was significantly associated to diarrhea (OR = 1.57; CI 95% = 1.24-1.98; p < 0.001) and dysentery (OR = 1.94; CI 95% = 1.03-3.66; p < 0.04). Our findings suggest that IPs are one of the main causal agents of gastrointestinal disorders. Improving the knowledge on local risk factors such as poverty, low level of education, poor sanitation, contact with soil and contact with domestic animal is warranted.

Incidence of anti-toxoplasma antibodies in women with high-risk pregnancy and habitual abortions

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an obligate intracellular parasite. In pregnant women on the worldwide scale, there are seroprevalences from 7% to 51.3% and in women with abnormal pregnancies and abortions the seroprevalences vary from 17.5% to 52.3%. In Mexico, seropositivity has been found to vary from 18.2% to 44.8% in women with abnormal deliveries or abortions. This study's aim was to determine the incidence oflgG and IgM anti-Toxoplasma antibodies in women at the Gineco-Obstetrics Hospital of the Western Medical Center of the Mexican Social Security Institute. Three hundred and fifty women with high-risk pregnancies were studied, and 122 (34.9%) were found to be IgG seropositive and 76 (20.7%) were IgM positive. In one group of women with habitual abortions there were 48 (44.9%) with the preseiwe of IgG antibodies and 33 (33-3%) were IgM seropositive. Seropositivity was analyzed according to age, occupation, socio-economic level, eating raw or poorly cooked meat, and living with cats.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: risk factors and clinical outcome in non-intensive-care units

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is spread out in hospitals across different regions of the world and is regarded as the major agent of nosocomial infections, causing infections such as skin and soft tissue pneumonia and sepsis. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for methicillin-resistance in Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (BSI) and the predictive factors for death. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of fifty-one patients presenting bacteraemia due to S. aureus between September 2006 and September 2008 was analysed. Staphylococcu aureus samples were obtained from blood cultures performed by clinical hospital microbiology laboratory from the Uberlândia Federal University. Methicillinresistance was determined by growth on oxacillin screen agar and antimicrobial susceptibility by means of the disk diffusion method. RESULTS: We found similar numbers of MRSA (56.8%) and methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) (43.2%) infections, and the overall hospital mortality ratio was 47%, predominantly in MRSA group (70.8% vs. 29.2%) (p=0.05). Age (p=0.02) was significantly higher in MRSA patients as also was the use of central venous catheter (p=0.02). The use of two or more antimicrobial agents (p=0.03) and the length of hospital stay prior to bacteraemia superior to seven days (p=0.006) were associated with mortality. High odds ratio value was observed in cardiopathy as comorbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several risk factors associated with MRSA and MSSA infection, the use of two or more antimicrobial agents was the unique independent variable associated with mortality.

Intraventricular hemorrhage in very low birth weight infants: associated risk factors and outcome in the neonatal period

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a severe complication in very low birth weight (VLBW) newborns (NB). With the purpose of studying the incidence of IVH, the associated risk factors, and the outcomes for these neonates, we studied all the VLBW infants born in our neonatal unit. Birth weight, gestational age, presence of perinatal asphyxia, mechanical ventilation, length of hospitalization, apnea crisis, hydrocephalus, and periventricular leukomalacia were analyzed. The diagnosis of IVH was based on ultrasound scan studies (Papile's classification) performed until the tenth day of life and repeated weekly in the presence of abnormalities. Sixty-seven/101 neonates were studied. The mortality rate was 30.6% (31/101) and the incidence of IVH was 29.8% (20/67) : 70% grade I, 20% grade III and 10% grade IV. The incidence of IVH in NB <1,000 g was 53.8% (p = 0.035) and for gestational age <30 weeks was 47.3% (p = 0.04), both considered risk factors for IVH. The length of hospitalization (p = 0.00015) and mechanical ventilation (p = 0.038) were longer in IHV NB. The IVH NB had a relative risk of 2.3 of developing apnea (p = 0.02), 3.7 of hydrocephalus (p = 0.0007), and 7.7 of periventricular leukomalacia (p < 0.00001). The authors emphasize the importance of knowing the risk factors related to IVH so as to introduce prevention schemes to reduce IVH and to improve outcomes of affected newborns.

Prodromal Questionnaire: translation, adaptation to Portuguese and preliminary results in ultra-high risk individuals and first episode psychosis

OBJECTIVE: The Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ) is a 92-item self-report screening tool for individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) to develop psychosis. This study aims to present the translation to Portuguese and preliminary results in UHR and first episode (FE) psychosis in a Portuguese sample. METHODS: The PQ was translated from English to Portuguese by two bilingual researchers from the research program on early psychosis of the Instituto de Psiquiatria HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil (ASAS - "Evaluation and Follow up of Adolescents and Young Adults in São Paulo") and back translated by two other researchers. The study participants (n = 11-) were evaluated through the Portuguese version of the Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ) and SIPS. RESULTS: The individuals at UHR (n = 7) presented a lower score than first episode patients (n = 4). The UHR mean scores and standard deviation on Portuguese version of the PQ were: 13.0 ± 10.0 points on positive symptoms subscale, and FE patients: 33.0 ± 10.0. CONCLUSION: The UHR and FE patients' of this study presented PQ scores similar to the ones found in the literature; what suggests that it is possible to use the PQ in Brazilian help-seeking individuals as a screening tool.

Hepatitis B virus infection profile in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: prevalence, risk factors, and genotypes

Hemodialysis patients are at high risk for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. A survey was conducted in the hemodialysis population of the state of Goiás, Central Brazil, aiming to assess the prevalence of HBV infection, to analyse associated risk factors, and also to investigate HBV genotypes distribution. A total of 1095 patients were interviewed in 15 dialysis units. Serum samples were screened for HBV serological markers by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive samples were tested for HBV DNA by polymerase chain reaction and genotyped by restriction fragment length polymorphism. Global HBV infection prevalence was 29.8% (95% CI: 27.1-32.5). Multivariate analysis of risk factors showed that male gender, length of time on hemodialysis, and blood transfusion before 1993 were associated with HBV positivity. HBV DNA was detected in 65.4% (17/26) of the HBsAg-positive samples. Thirteen of 17 HBV DNA positive samples were genotyped. Genotype D (61.5%) was predominant, followed by A (30.8%), while genotype F was detected in only one (7.7%) sample.

Use of geoprocessing to define malaria risk areas and evaluation of the vectorial importance of anopheline mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Espírito Santo, Brazil

In Brazil, introduced malaria occurs from the flat to the sloping hot areas, predominantly outside the Amazon Region, where endemic malaria has occurred in the past. This is a consequence of human migrations to other Brazilian states, including the state of Espírito Santo (ES). The objective of this study was to use geoprocessing to define the areas at risk of introduced malaria transmission and evaluate the vectorial importance of species of anophelines in ES. Anophelines were sampled from 1997-2005 in 297 rural localities identified or not identified as foci of malaria during the last 20 years. The geoclimatic variables temperature, relief and marine influence were obtained from a database of the ES Natural Units. The 14,663 anophelines captured belonged to 22 species. A significant association was found between the occurrence of malaria foci and the presence of hot, low-lying areas or gently undulating to undulating relief. The occurrence of the disease was associated with the presence of Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles aquasalis. Geoprocessing was determined to be a useful tool for defining areas at risk for malaria and vectors in ES.

Correlations between major risk factors and closely related Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates grouped by three current enotyping procedures: a population-based study in northeast Mexico

The characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) patients related to a chain of recent TB transmissions were investigated. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates (120) were genotyped using the restriction fragment length polymorphism-IS6110 (R), spacer oligotyping (S) and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (M) methods. The MTB isolates were clustered and the clusters were grouped according to the similarities of their genotypes. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the groups of MTB isolates with similar genotypes and those patient characteristics indicating a risk for a pulmonary TB (PTB) chain transmission were ana- lysed. The isolates showing similar genotypes were distributed as follows: SMR (5%), SM (12.5%), SR (1.67%), MR (0%), S (46.67%), M (5%) and R (0%). The remaining 35 cases were orphans. SMR exhibited a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with visits to clinics, municipalities and comorbidities (primarily diabetes mellitus). S correlated with drug consumption and M with comorbidities. SMR is needed to identify a social network in metropolitan areas for PTB transmission and S and M are able to detect risk factors as secondary components of a transmission chain of TB.

Soil, water and nutrient losses by interrill erosion from green cane cultivation

Interrill erosion occurs by the particle breakdown caused by raindrop impact, by particle transport in surface runoff, by dragging and suspension of particles disaggregated from the soil surface, thus removing organic matter and nutrients that are essential for agricultural production. Crop residues on the soil surface modify the characteristics of the runoff generated by rainfall and the consequent particle breakdown and sediment transport resulting from erosion. The objective of this study was to determine the minimum amount of mulch that must be maintained on the soil surface of a sugarcane plantation to reduce the soil, water and nutrient losses by decreasing interrill erosion. The study was conducted in Pradópolis, São Paulo State, in 0.5 x 1.0 m plots of an Oxisol, testing five treatments in four replications. The application rates were based on the crop residue production of the area of 1.4 kg m-2 (T1- no cane trash; T2-25 % of the cane trash; T3- 50 % trash; T4-75 % trash; T5-100 % sugarcane residues on the surface), and simulated rainfall was applied at an intensity of 65 mm h-1 for 60 min. Runoff samples were collected in plastic containers and soon after taken to the laboratory to quantify the losses of soil, water and nutrients. To minimize soil loss by interrill erosion, 75 % of the cane mulch must be maintained on the soil, to control water loss 50 % must be maintained and 25 % trash controls organic matter and nutrient losses. This information can contribute to optimize the use of this resource for soil conservation on the one hand and the production of clean energy in sugar and alcohol industries on the other.

Risk factors and presence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii in dogs from the coast of São Paulo State, Brazil

Toxoplasmosis is caused by the obligate intracellular protozoan parasite Toxoplasma gondii and affects warm-blooded vertebrates, including pets and man. Dogs are epidemio-logically important since they act as sentinels for the infection in humans. The present study aimed to determine the presence of antibodies to T. gondii in 205 serum samples from dogs in Ubatuba, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, through indirect immunofluorescence reaction (IFAT), as well as the risk factors related to toxoplasmosis in the animals such as breed, age, sex, access to outdoors, homemade food ingestion, access to untreated water, and contact with rodents. Toxoplasmosis-positive samples accounted for 52/205 (25.4%), with titers ranging from 16 to 256. The serological results presented significant association (P<0.05) with homemade food ingestion (45/118; 38.1%; CI95% 29.9%-47.2%) (OR=7.0; CI95% 3.0-16.6), and with access to outdoors where those that do not have access to the street were prevalent (37/121; 30.6%; CI95% 23.1%-39.3%) (OR=0.5; CI95% 0.2-1.0). These results show that toxoplasmosis in this region is related to problems of sanitary education, mainly concerning the appropriate cooking of foods, since most positive animals did not show significant association with the presence of rodents or untreated water consumption but showed, instead association with ingestion of homemade food. Thus, toxoplasmosis is a public health problem in the studied region, and sanitary measures are needed to control the infection due to the strict relationship between man and dog and the presented risk factors

Incidence, risk factors and prognostic factors of acute renal failure in patients admitted to an intensive care unit

The objective of the present study was to assess the incidence, risk factors and outcome of patients who develop acute renal failure (ARF) in intensive care units. In this prospective observational study, 221 patients with a 48-h minimum stay, 18-year-old minimum age and absence of overt acute or chronic renal failure were included. Exclusion criteria were organ donors and renal transplantation patients. ARF was defined as a creatinine level above 1.5 mg/dL. Statistics were performed using Pearsons' chi2 test, Student t-test, and Wilcoxon test. Multivariate analysis was run using all variables with P < 0.1 in the univariate analysis. ARF developed in 19.0% of the patients, with 76.19% resulting in death. Main risk factors (univariate analysis) were: higher intra-operative hydration and bleeding, higher death risk by APACHE II score, logist organ dysfunction system on the first day, mechanical ventilation, shock due to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)/sepsis, noradrenaline use, and plasma creatinine and urea levels on admission. Heart rate on admission (OR = 1.023 (1.002-1.044)), male gender (OR = 4.275 (1.340-13642)), shock due to SIRS/sepsis (OR = 8.590 (2.710-27.229)), higher intra-operative hydration (OR = 1.002 (1.000-1004)), and plasma urea on admission (OR = 1.012 (0.980-1044)) remained significant (multivariate analysis). The mortality risk factors (univariate analysis) were shock due to SIRS/sepsis, mechanical ventilation, blood stream infection, potassium and bicarbonate levels. Only potassium levels remained significant (P = 0.037). In conclusion, ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality when it occurs in intensive care unit. There is a very close association with hemodynamic status and multiple organ dysfunction.

Sexually transmitted diseases in homosexual and bisexual males from a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus negative volunteers (Project Horizonte), Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are very frequent in the whole world. Males who do not use a condom during their sexual relations are at great risk. We report cases of STD during six months of observation, among homosexual/bisexual males who participate in the Project Horizonte. There were 16 cases of genital warts, 6 cases of human immunodeficiency virus infection, 24 cases of unspecific urethritis, 28 cases of herpes simplex virus infection, 30 cases of syphilis, 58 cases of gonorrhea and 84 cases of pediculosis. We concluded that a condom must be used in all sexual relations and new counseling techniques are needed, to avoid this situation.