Agreement between data obtained from repeated interviews with a six-years interval

The objective of the study was to compare information collected through face-to-face interviews at first time and six years later in a city of Southeastern Brazil. In 1998, 32 mothers (N=32) of children aged 20 to 30 months answered a face-to-face interview with structured questions regarding their children's brushing habits. Six years later this same interview was repeated with the same mothers. Both interviews were compared for overall agreement, kappa and weighted kappa. Overall agreement between both interviews varied from 41 to 96%. Kappa values ranged from 0.00 to 0.65 (very bad to good) without any significant differences. The results showed lack of agreement when the same interview is conducted six years later, showing that the recall bias can be a methodological problem of interviews.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy of the right ventricle. Predictive value of QT interval dispersion to assess arrhythmogenic risk and sudden death

OBJECTIVE: To determine in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy the value of QT interval dispersion for identifying the induction of sustained ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study or the risk of sudden cardiac death. METHODS: We assessed QT interval dispersion in the 12-lead electrocardiogram of 26 patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. We analyzed its association with sustained ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death, and in 16 controls similar in age and sex. RESULTS: (mean ± SD). QT interval dispersion: patients = 53.8±14.1ms; control group = 35.0±10.6ms, p=0.001. Patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia: 52.5±13.8ms; without induction of ventricular tachycardia: 57.5±12.8ms, p=0.420. In a mean follow-up period of 41±11 months, five sudden cardiac deaths occurred. QT interval dispersion in this group was 62.0±17.8, and in the others it was 51.9±12.8ms, p=0.852. Using a cutoff > or = 60ms to define an increase in the degree of the QT interval dispersion, we were able to identify patients at risk of sudden cardiac death with a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 57%, and positive and negative predictive values of 25% and 85%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy have a significant increase in the degree of QT interval dispersion when compared with the healthy population. However it, did not identify patients with induction of ventricular tachycardia in the electrophysiological study, showing a very low predictive value for defining the risk of sudden cardiac death in the population studied.

Reduction of QTc interval dispersion. Potential mechanism of cardiac protection of pyridostigmine bromide

OBJECTIVE: Parasympathetic dysfunction is an independent risk factor in individuals with coronary artery disease, and cholinergic stimulation is a potential therapeutical option. We determined the effects of pyridostigmine bromide, a reversible anticholinesterase agent, on electrocardiographic variables of healthy individuals. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional, double blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study. We obtained electrocardiographic tracings in 12 simultaneous leads of 10 healthy young individuals at rest before and after oral administration of 45 mg of pyridostigmine or placebo. RESULTS: Pyridostigmine increased RR intervals (before: 886±27 ms vs after: 1054±37 ms) and decreased QTc dispersion (before: 72±9ms vs after: 45±3ms), without changing other electrocardiographic variables (PR segment, QT interval, QTc, and QT dispersion). CONCLUSION: Bradycardia and the reduction in QTc dispersion induced by pyridostigmine may effectively represent a protective mechanism if these results can be reproduced in individuals with cardiovascular diseases.

Hypotensive Response Magnitude and Duration in Hypertensives: Continuous and Interval Exercise

Background: Although exercise training is known to promote post-exercise hypotension, there is currently no consistent argument about the effects of manipulating its various components (intensity, duration, rest periods, types of exercise, training methods) on the magnitude and duration of hypotensive response. Objective: To compare the effect of continuous and interval exercises on hypotensive response magnitude and duration in hypertensive patients by using ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). Methods: The sample consisted of 20 elderly hypertensives. Each participant underwent three ABPM sessions: one control ABPM, without exercise; one ABPM after continuous exercise; and one ABPM after interval exercise. Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR) and double product (DP) were monitored to check post-exercise hypotension and for comparison between each ABPM. Results: ABPM after continuous exercise and after interval exercise showed post-exercise hypotension and a significant reduction (p < 0.05) in SBP, DBP, MAP and DP for 20 hours as compared with control ABPM. Comparing ABPM after continuous and ABPM after interval exercise, a significant reduction (p < 0.05) in SBP, DBP, MAP and DP was observed in the latter. Conclusion: Continuous and interval exercise trainings promote post-exercise hypotension with reduction in SBP, DBP, MAP and DP in the 20 hours following exercise. Interval exercise training causes greater post-exercise hypotension and lower cardiovascular overload as compared with continuous exercise.

Evaluation of Electrocardiographic T-peak to T-end Interval in Subjects with Increased Epicardial Fat Tissue Thickness

Abstract Background: The association between periatrial adiposity and atrial arrhythmias has been shown in previous studies. However, there are not enough available data on the association between epicardial fat tissue (EFT) thickness and parameters of ventricular repolarization. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the association of EFT thickness with indices of ventricular repolarization by using T-peak to T-end (Tp-e) interval and Tp-e/QT ratio. Methods: The present study included 50 patients whose EFT thickness ≥ 9 mm (group 1) and 40 control subjects with EFT thickness < 9 mm (group 2). Transthoracic echocardiographic examination was performed in all participants. QT parameters, Tp-e intervals and Tp-e/QT ratio were measured from the 12-lead electrocardiogram. Results: QTd (41.1 ± 2.5 vs 38.6 ± 3.2, p < 0.001) and corrected QTd (46.7 ± 4.7 vs 43.7 ± 4, p = 0.002) were significantly higher in group 1 when compared to group 2. The Tp-e interval (76.5 ± 6.3, 70.3 ± 6.8, p < 0.001), cTp-e interval (83.1 ± 4.3 vs. 76±4.9, p < 0.001), Tp-e/QT (0.20 ± 0.02 vs. 0.2 ± 0.02, p < 0.001) and Tp-e/QTc ratios (0.2 ± 0.01 vs. 0.18 ± 0.01, p < 0.001) were increased in group 1 in comparison to group 2. Significant positive correlations were found between EFT thickness and Tp-e interval (r = 0.548, p < 0.001), cTp-e interval (r = 0.259, p = 0.01), and Tp-e/QT (r = 0.662, p < 0.001) and Tp-e/QTc ratios (r = 0.560, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The present study shows that Tp-e and cTp-e interval, Tp-e/QT and Tp-e/QTc ratios were increased in subjects with increased EFT, which may suggest an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmia.

The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

The sample processing time interval as an influential factor in flow cytometry analysis of lymphocyte subsets

The objective of this paper is to propose a protocol to analyze blood samples in yellow fever 17DD vaccinated which developed serious adverse events. We investigated whether or not the time between sample collection and sample processing could interfere in lymphocyte subset percentage, for it is often impossible to analyze blood samples immediately after collection due to transport delay from collection places to the flow cytometry facility. CD4+CD38+ T, CD8+CD38+ T, CD3+ T, CD19+ B lymphocyte subsets were analyzed by flow cytometry in nine healthy volunteers immediately after blood collection and after intervals of 24 and 48 h. The whole blood lysis method and gradient sedimentation by Histopaque were applied to isolate peripheral blood mononuclear cells for flow cytometry analyses. With the lysis method, there was no significant change in lymphocyte subset percentage between the two time intervals (24 and 48 h). In contrast, when blood samples were processed by Histopaque gradient sedimentation, time intervals for sample processing influenced the percentage in T lymphocyte subsets but not in B cells. From the results obtained, we could conclude that the whole blood lysis method is more appropriate than gradient sedimentation by Histopaque for immunophenotyping of blood samples collected after serious adverse events, due to less variation in the lymphocyte subset levels with respect to the time factor.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) and Hemilucilia segmentaria (Fabricius) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) used to estimate the postmortem interval in a forensic case in Minas Gerais, Brazil

ABSTRACT. Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann) and Hemilucilia segmentaria (Fabricius) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) used to estimate the postmortem interval in a forensic case in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The corpse of a man was found in a Brazilian highland savanna (cerrado) in the state of Minas Gerais. Fly larvae were collected at the crime scene and arrived at the laboratory three days afterwards. From the eight pre-pupae, seven adults of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819) emerged and, from the two larvae, two adults of Hemilucilia segmentaria (Fabricius, 1805) were obtained. As necrophagous insects use corpses as a feeding resource, their development rate can be used as a tool to estimate the postmortem interval. The post-embryonary development stage of the immature collected on the body was estimated as the difference between the total development time and the time required for them to become adults in the lab. The estimated age of the maggots from both species and the minimum postmortem interval were four days. This is the first time that H. segmentaria is used to estimate the postmortem interval in a forensic case.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

Weather based warning systems for bean angular-leaf-spot and anthracnose

Data available in the literature were used to develop a warning system for bean angular leaf spot and anthracnose, caused by Phaeoisariopsis griseola and Colletotrichum lindemuthianum, respectively. The model is based on favorable environmental conditions for the infectious process such as continuous leaf wetness duration and mean air temperature during this subphase of the pathogen-host relationship cycle. Equations published by DALLA PRIA (1977) showing the interactions of those two factors on the disease severity were used. Excell spreadsheet was used to calculate the leaf wetness period needed to cause different infection probabilities at different temperature ranges. These data were employed to elaborate critical period tables used to program a computerized electronic device that records leaf wetness duration and mean temperature and automatically shows the daily disease severity value (DDSV) for each disease. The model should be validated in field experiments under natural infection for which the daily disease severity sum (DDSS) should be identified as a criterion to indicate the beginning and the interval of fungicide applications to control both diseases.

QT interval in healthy dogs: which method of correcting the QT interval in dogs is appropriate for use in small animal clinics?

The electrocardiography (ECG) QT interval is influenced by fluctuations in heart rate (HR) what may lead to misinterpretation of its length. Considering that alterations in QT interval length reflect abnormalities of the ventricular repolarisation which predispose to occurrence of arrhythmias, this variable must be properly evaluated. The aim of this work is to determine which method of correcting the QT interval is the most appropriate for dogs regarding different ranges of normal HR (different breeds). Healthy adult dogs (n=130; German Shepherd, Boxer, Pit Bull Terrier, and Poodle) were submitted to ECG examination and QT intervals were determined in triplicates from the bipolar limb II lead and corrected for the effects of HR through the application of three published formulae involving quadratic, cubic or linear regression. The mean corrected QT values (QTc) obtained using the diverse formulae were significantly different (ρ<0.05), while those derived according to the equation QTcV = QT + 0.087(1- RR) were the most consistent (linear regression). QTcV values were strongly correlated (r=0.83) with the QT interval and showed a coefficient of variation of 8.37% and a 95% confidence interval of 0.22-0.23 s. Owing to its simplicity and reliability, the QTcV was considered the most appropriate to be used for the correction of QT interval in dogs.