Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006) was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) (WRIGHT, 1991) and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future"), a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth") and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture"). Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

Diagnostic techniques applied in geostatistics for agricultural data analysis

The structural modeling of spatial dependence, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to determine parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values at unsampled points by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in sampled data. The purpose of this study was to use diagnostic techniques in Gaussian spatial linear models in geostatistics to evaluate the sensitivity of maximum likelihood and restrict maximum likelihood estimators to small perturbations in these data. For this purpose, studies with simulated and experimental data were conducted. Results with simulated data showed that the diagnostic techniques were efficient to identify the perturbation in data. The results with real data indicated that atypical values among the sampled data may have a strong influence on thematic maps, thus changing the spatial dependence structure. The application of diagnostic techniques should be part of any geostatistical analysis, to ensure a better quality of the information from thematic maps.

Mutants of common bean alpha-amylase inhibitor-2 as an approach to investigate binding specificity to alpha-amylases

Despite the presence of a family of defense proteins, Phaseolus vulgaris can be attacked by bruchid insects resulting in serious damage to stored grains. The two distinct active forms of a-amylase inhibitors, a-AI1 and a-AI2, in P. vulgaris show different specificity toward a-amylases. Zabrotes subfasciatus a-amylase is inhibited by a-AI2 but not by a-AI1. In contrast, porcine a-amylase is inhibited by a-AI1 but not by a-AI2. The objective of this work was to understand the molecular basis of the specificity of two inhibitors in P. vulgaris (a-AI1 and a-AI2) in relation to a-amylases. Mutants of a-AI2 were made and expressed in tobacco plants. The results showed that all the a-AI2 mutant inhibitors lost their activity against the insect a-amylases but none exhibited activity toward the mammalian a-amylase. The replacement of His33 of a-AI2 with the a-AI1-like sequence Ser-Tyr-Asn abolished inhibition of Z. subfasciatus a-amylase. From structural modeling, the conclusion is that the size and complexity of the amylase-inhibitor interface explain why mutation of the N-terminal loop and resultant abolition of Z. subfasciatus a-amylase inhibition are not accompanied by gain of inhibitory activity against porcine a-amylase.

Structural changes in latosols of the cerrado region: II - soil compressive behavior and modeling of additional compaction

Currently in Brazil, as in other parts of the world, the concern is great with the increase of degraded agricultural soil, which is mostly related to the occurrence of soil compaction. Although soil texture is recognized as a very important component in the soil compressive behaviors, there are few studies that quantify its influence on the structural changes of Latosols in the Brazilian Cerrado region. This study aimed to evaluate structural changes and the compressive behavior of Latosols in Rio Verde, Goiás, through the modeling of additional soil compaction. The study was carried out using five Latosols with very different textures, under different soil compaction levels. Water retention and soil compression curves, and bearing capacity models were determined from undisturbed samples collected on the B horizons. Results indicated that clayey and very clayey Latosols were more susceptible to compression than medium-textured soils. Soil compression curves at density values associate with edaphic functions were used to determine the beneficial pressure (σ b) , i.e., pressure with optimal water retention, and critical pressure (σcrMAC), i.e., pressure with macroporosity below critical levels. These pressure values were higher than the preconsolidation pressure (σp), and therefore characterized as additional compaction. Based on the compressive behavior of these Latosols, it can be concluded that the combined preconsolidation pressure, beneficial pressure and critical pressure allow a better understanding of compression processes of Latosols.

Modeling of the Fluid-Structure Interaction in Inelastic Piping Systems

In many engineering applications, compliant piping systems conveying liquids are subjected to inelastic deformations due to severe pressure surges such as plastic tubes in modern water supply transmission lines and metallic pipings in nuclear power plants. In these cases the design of such systems may require an adequate modeling of the interactions between the fluid dynamics and the inelastic structural pipe motions. The reliability of the prediction of fluid-pipe behavior depends mainly on the adequacy of the constitutive equations employed in the analysis. In this paper it is proposed a systematic and general approach to consistently incorporate different kinds of inelastic behaviors of the pipe material in a fluid-structure interaction analysis. The main feature of the constitutive equations considered in this work is that a very simple numerical technique can be used for solving the coupled equations describing the dynamics of the fluid and pipe wall. Numerical examples concerning the analysis of polyethylene and stainless steel pipe networks are presented to illustrate the versatility of the proposed approach.

CAUSE-FIT, POSITIVE ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS WITHIN HYBRID COLOMBIAN ORGANIZATIONS

ABSTRACTSocially oriented ventures have provided livelihoods and social recognition to disadvantaged communities in different corners of the world. In some cases, these ventures are the result of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programs. In Latin America, this type of undertaking has responded positively to unmet social needs. The social cause drives these organizations and their human resources and they give high value to organizational cause-fit. This paper presents empirical evidence of the effects of perceived cause-fit on several worker attitudes and behaviors. Psychological contract theory was adopted as theoretical background. Employees working in a hybrid (for-profit/socially oriented) Colombian organization created by a CSR program participated in the survey. Data provided by 218 employees were analyzed using PLS structural equation modeling. The results suggest the ideological components of the employee-employer relationship predict positive attitudes and cooperative organizational behaviors towards hybrid organizations.

INFLUENCE OF MANUFACTURER SIGNATURE ON STORE BRANDS' LOYALTY AND PURCHASE INTENTION

ABSTRACT With today's trend toward higher store concentration, building strong store brands has become a priority for many retailing companies. This study aims to analyze the differences in store brands' purchasing likelihood between store brands with a manufacturer identification - a manufacturer signature - and store brands with no information about the manufacturer, as well as the moderating role of the manufacturer signature on store brands' purchase intention. We carried out multiple group analysis through structural equation modeling. Our findings suggest that store brand image has the most significant influence on loyalty and purchase intention for both types of store brands. Moreover, and contrary to our expectations, we did not find empirical support for the moderating role of manufacturer signature on store brands' purchasing likelihood.

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Religiousness and health-related quality of life of older adults

OBJECTIVE To examine whether religiousness mediates the relationship between sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and health-related quality of life of older adults.METHODS This population-based cross-sectional study is part of the Survey on Health, Well-Being, and Aging (SABE). The sample was composed by 911 older adults from Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil. Structural equation modeling was performed to assess the mediator effect of religiousness on the relationship between selected variables and health-related quality of life of older adults, with models for men and women. The independent variables were: age, education, family functioning and multimorbidity. The outcome variable was health-related quality of life of older adults, measured by SF-12 (physical and mental components). The mediator variables were organizational, non-organizational and intrinsic religiousness. Cronbach’s alpha values were: physical component = 0.85; mental component = 0.80; intrinsic religiousness = 0.89 and family APGAR (Adaptability, Partnership, Growth, Affection, and Resolve) = 0.91.RESULTS Higher levels of organizational and intrinsic religiousness were associated with better physical and mental components. Higher education, better family functioning and fewer diseases contributed directly to improved performance in physical and mental components, regardless of religiousness. For women, organizational religiousness mediated the relationship between age and physical (β = 2.401, p < 0.01) and mental (β = 1.663, p < 0.01) components. For men, intrinsic religiousness mediated the relationship between education and mental component (β = 7.158, p < 0.01).CONCLUSIONS Organizational and intrinsic religiousness had a beneficial effect on the relationship between age, education and health-related quality of life of these older adults.

Antibodies against non-structural c100/3 and structural core antigen of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in hemodialysis patients

Two groups of patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD) maintenance were evaluated for their antibody response to non-structural c100/3 protein and structural core protein of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Forty-six patients (Group 1) never presented liver abnormalities during HD treatment, while 52 patients (Group 2) had either current or prior liver enzyme elevations. Prevalence rates of 32.6% and 41.3% were found for anti-c100/3 and anti-HCV core antibodies, respectively, in patients with silent infections (Group 1). The rate of anti-c100/3 in patients of Group 2 was 71.15% and reached 86.5% for anti-HCV core antibodies. The recognition of anti-c100/3 and anti-core antibodies was significantly higher in Group 2 than in Group 1. A line immunoassay composed of structural and non-structural peptides was used as a confirmation assay. HBV infection, measured by the presence of anti-HBc antibodies, was observed in 39.8% of the patients. Six were HBsAg chronic carriers and 13 had naturally acquired anti-HBs antibodies. The duration of HD treatment was correlated with anti-HCV positivity. A high prevalence of 96.7% (Group 2) was found in patients who underwent more than 5 years of treatment. Our results suggest that anti-HCV core ELISA is more accurate for detecting HCV infection than anti-c100/3. Although the risk associated with the duration of HD treatment and blood transfusion was high, additional factors such as a significant non-transfusional spread of HCV seems to play a role as well. The identification of infective patients by more sensitive methods for HCV genome detection should help to control the transmission of HCV in the unit under study.

Structural changes in the jejunal mucosa of mice infected with Schistosoma mansoni, fed low or high protein diets

The effects of high and low-protein diets on the structure of the jejunal mucosa were studied in Schistosoma mansoni infected mice (morphology and histomorphometry). Weaning male albino mice were infected with 80 cercariae, fed with high (20%) or low-protein (5%) diets and compared to uninfected controls under the same conditions. Mice were sacrificed 12 weeks after infection. Animals submitted to a low-protein diet showed lower weight curves, mainly when infected. In the jejunal mucosa, finger-like villi were the predominant pattern among uninfected high-protein fed animals, while the infected ones showed leaf-shaped and flattened villi in most cases. Undernourished infected mice had 65.7% leaf-shaped villi. A significant increase in the number of goblet cells was seen in infected mice. A decrease in the number of absorptive cells was detected in undernourished mice, particularly in infected ones.

Prenatal tracheal ligation or intra-amniotic administration of surfactant or dexamethasone prevents some structural changes in the pulmonary arteries of surgically created diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits

PURPOSE: Characterization of the structural changes occurring in the pulmonary arteries resulting from surgically produced congenital diaphragmatic hernia in rabbits, with particular emphasis on the preventive effects of prenatal tracheal ligation or administration of intra-amniotic dexamethasone or surfactant. METHODS: Twenty rabbit fetuses underwent surgical creation of a left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the 24th or 25th gestational day. They were divided according to the following procedures: congenital diaphragmatic hernia (n = 5), congenital diaphragmatic hernia plus tracheal ligation (n = 5), congenital diaphragmatic hernia plus intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone 0.4 mg (n = 5) or surfactant (Curosurf 40 mg, n = 5). On gestational day 30, all the fetuses were delivered by caesarean section and killed. A control group consisted of five nonoperated fetuses. Histomorphometric analysis of medial thickness, cell nuclei density, and elastic fiber density of pulmonary arterial walls was performed. RESULTS: Arteries with an external diameter > 100 mum have a decreased medial thickness, lower cell nuclei density, and greater elastic fiber density when compared with arteries with external diameter <= 100 mum. Congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant decrease in medial thickness and an increase in cell nuclei density in artery walls with external diameter > 100 mum. Prenatal treatments with tracheal ligation or intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone or surfactant prevented these changes. In arteries with external diameter <= 100 mum, congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted a significant increase in medial thickness and in cell nuclei density and a decrease in elastic fiber density. The prenatal treatments with tracheal ligation or intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone or surfactant prevented these changes, although no effect was observed in elastic fiber density in the congenital diaphragmatic hernia plus dexamethasone group. CONCLUSIONS: Congenital diaphragmatic hernia promoted different structural changes for large or small arteries. The prenatal intra-amniotic administration of dexamethasone or surfactant had positive effects on the lung structural changes promoted by congenital diaphragmatic hernia, and these effects were comparable to the changes induced by tracheal ligation.

Floristic, edaphic and structural characteristics of flooded and unflooded forests in the lower Rio Purús region of central Amazonia, Brazil

Despite a natural history interest in the early 1900s, relatively little ecological research has been carried out in the Rio Purús basin of central Amazonia, Brazil. Here we describe a new study area in the region of Lago Uauaçú with an emphasis on the climate, forest structure and composition, and soil characteristics between adjacent unflooded (terra firme) and seasonally inundated forests; situated within both the white-water (várzea) and black-water (igapó) drainage systems that dominate the landscape. The climate was found to be typical of that of the central Amazon. Várzea forest soils had high concentrations of nutrients, while terra firme and igapó soils were comparatively nutrient-poor. Terra firme forests were the most floristically diverse forest type, whereas várzea was intermediate, and igapó the most species-poor. The Lecythidaceae was the most important family in terra firme while the Euphorbiaceae was the most important in both várzea and igapó. There were significant differences between forest types in terms of number of saplings, canopy cover and understorey density. In contrasting our results with other published information, we conclude that the Lago Uauaçú region consists of a typical central Amazonian forest macro-mosaic, but is a unique area with high conservation value due to the intimate juxtaposition of terra firme, várzea and igapó forests.

Population Dynamics Modeling of Arapaima gigas

Pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) has been of the most important natural fishing resources of the Amazon region. Due to its economic importance, and the necessity to preserve the species hand, field research concerning the habits and behavior of the pirarucu has been increasing for the last 20 years. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model for the pirarucu population dynamics considering the species peculiarities, particularly the male parental care over the offspring. The solution of the dynamical systems indicates three possible equilibrium points for the population. The first corresponds to extinction; the third corresponds to a stable population close to the environmental carrying capacity. The second corresponds to an unstable equilibrium located between extinction and full use of the carrying capacity. It is shown that lack of males’ parental care closes the gap between the point corresponding to the unstable equilibrium and the point of stable non-trivial equilibrium. If guarding failure reaches a critical point the two points coincide and the population tends irreversibly to extinction. If some event tends to destabilize the population equilibrium, as for instance inadequate parental care, the model responds in such a way as to restore the trajectory towards the stable equilibrium point avoiding the route to extinction. The parameters introduced to solve the system of equations are partially derived from limited but reliable field data collected at the Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve (MSDR) in the Brazilian Amazonian Region.

Structural and successional variability of periphytic algal community in a Amazonian lake during the dry and rainy season (Rio Branco, Acre)

The colonization process and successional patterns of a periphytic algal community were evaluated in a Amazonian Viveiro Lake (Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil). Sampling was performed over a period of 35 days; at four-day intervals for 20 days, and then at five-day intervals. Water sampling for physical, chemical and biological analyses was done during the dry and rainy season. Glass slides were used as artificial substrates for periphyton colonization. The structural community was evaluated through population density, algae class, diversity indices and descriptive species. Species richness, diversity and evenness increased as succession progressed. While density of Bacillariophyceae, Euglenophyceae and Zygnemaphyceae increased with succession, Cyanobacteria remained dominant. Synechocystis aquatilis, Synechocystis diplococcus and Navicula pseudolanceolata were the main descriptive species in both the dry and rainy season. Cymbela tumida, Frustulia rhomboides, Trachelomonas lacustris and Closterium acicularis was correlated with an increase in hydrologic level during the rainy season. Conversely, the density of Chlamydomonas sp., Chroomonas nordstedtii, Trachelomonas volvocinopsis, Trachelomonas volvocina and Synechococcus linearis was correlated with an increase in water transparency during the dry season. In general, the periphytic algal community showed high diversity and species richness independent of season. Season also had little influence on representation of algae class and main descriptive species. However, successional patterns varied by season, and changes in hydrologic levels acted directly on the succession path of periphytic algae. More research on periphyton dynamics is needed to improve our understanding of tropical lake ecosystems, especially in Amazonian.