Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

Fertilizer policy in the developing countries: the case of Brazil

This paper deals initially with the role of mineral fertilizers in increasing agricultural production: the relationship between the two variables is illustrated within global, regional national and local contexts. The pattern and trends in fertilizer usage in Brazil are presented next, namely: increase in consumption in the period 1950/72; regional distribution; consumption as related to crops and cultivated land. It is shown that in less than a quarter or century fertilizer use has increased in the country nearly 12 fold, whereas world consumption was raised 7 fold, thus exceeding estimates based in several criteria. Steps taken to secure the raise in fertilizer consumption above the historical trend are discussed: research experience for outlining fertilization recomendations; the transfer of the knowledge to the farmer by the extension work both official and private; the credit policy and special incentives for the purchase of fertilizer; the national policy for minumum proces of agricultural products; the implantation of a national fertilizer industry. It is considered that the Brazilian experience adapted to similar local conditions in other developing countries, presents a possibility for achieving beneficial results without inflationary reflexes in the economy.

Solidarity finance through community development banks as a strategy for reshaping local economies: lessons from Banco Palmas

The purpose of this paper is to reflect on the possibilities and challenges of Community Development Banks (CDBs) as an innovative method of socioeconomic management of microcredit for poor populations. To this end, we will discuss the case of Banco Palmas in Conjunto Palmeiras in the city of Fortaleza, in the northeastern state of Ceará, as an empirical case study. The analyses presented here are based on information obtained from Banco Palmas between late 2011 and early 2012. In addition, previous studies by other researchers on the bank and other studies on CDBs were important. The primary data collected at Banco Palmas came from documents made available by the bank, such as reports and mappings. The analyses describe some of the characteristics of the granting of microcredit and allow one to situate it in the universe of microfinance and solidarity finance. They also show the significant growth of local consumption, mostly through the use of the Palmas social currency. The Banco Palmas experience, aside from influencing national public policies of solidarity finance, initiated a CDBs network that encourages the replication of these experiences throughout the country.

A Eterna Busca do Indivisível: do Átomo Filosófico aos Quarks e Léptons

The fascinating search of the inner boundaries of the Universe, has been entangled, since the birth of greek philosophy 25 centuries ago, with the main epistemological changes in the History of Science. This paper does not intend to present a systematic description of the discovery of the elementary particles. By stressing the main achievements of the knowledge of matter's structure and their dependence on symmetry arguments, it is argued that even considering profound differences in each historical period, there is a paradgima of atom shared by Chemistry and Particle Physics. This text could help High School Teachers of Chemistry and Physics, as well as motivate them, in the challenge of explaining to their pupils how the idea of atom evolved.

Cristais líquidos colestéricos: a quiralidade revela as suas cores

Chirality deeply impacts the macroscopic properties on all scales of the universe from elemental particles through biological structures up to astronomic systems. Specifically, chiral liquid crystals give rise to self-organized macrostructures with unparalleled properties. Here we present easy experiments with a special class of chiral liquid crystals that show temperature-induced selective reflection of light (thermochromic effect). Understanding this thermochromic effect allows undergraduate students better realize important properties of super and supramolecular systems.

Clinical reasoning of medical students in a public university in Brazil

The aim of this research was to understand the reasoning developed by medical students in a public university in Brazil. This research on education included semi-structured interviews and film recordings of interns discussing 10 clinical cases. A sample of 16 interns analyzed cases presented on a notebook computer with a webcam. They were instructed to verbalize all their thoughts on the procedures they would use. The film recordings and transcripts of the interviews were analyzed. Quantitative data was evaluated using Yates' chi-squared test and speech analysis was used to evaluate the transcripts. The theme worked on in the practice of reasoning was: the student's perceptions of their clinical practice. Of the 160 diagnoses, 57% were done with analytical reasoning and 43% with non-analytical reasoning. The hypothetical deductive method was employed by 31% of the interns and the inductive method was employed by 69%. The diagnostic accuracy was 81% correct for easy cases and 85% correct for difficult cases. We observed two empirical categories: the cognitive universe of the student and the patient's context.

Use of interactive performance optimization for identifying the ideal profile of swine finishing producers

The present research aimed to develop a modeling capable of identifying the ideal profile of swine finishing producers using the interactive performance optimization, which began by verifying qualitative the criteria considered most relevant to the decision-making, generating a closed structured diagnosis that covers the socioeconomic aspects about the activity, until the design of a mathematical model able to translate the data obtained in quantitative information. For the verification, it was proposed a practical study for a universe of 120 members of a cooperative in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that, from the application and the definition of the ideal profile, it was possible to verify that 82 producers are in the group of those who have obtained a "Good" performance, and to 44 the result is in the range between 86% to 90% from the ideal, which means that most have short or medium-term conditions to evolve their status for the considered "Very Good", where only 12.5% of the producers are currently.

Neospora caninum seropositivity in cattle breeds in the South Fluminense Paraíba Valley, state of Rio de Janeiro

The infection by Neospora caninum of different cattle breeds in dairy properties in two municipalities of the South Fluminense Paraíba Valley, state of Rio de Janeiro, was evaluated. Considering a sampling universe of 2,491 cows, blood samples were collected from 563 dairy cows in 57 farms, which were randomically selected in proportion to the number of animals, using a random stratified sampling system. For each property the number of selected cows was proportional to the herd size. Abortion or other reproductive disorders were not considered as criteria for selecting the animals, and seropositivity was determined by indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A high association (p=0.006) between seropositivity and racial patterns was found. The analysis revealed that in comparison of pure black-and-white Holstein cows versus Zebu (p=0.0028), Holstein cows showed 2.65 times greater odds for seropositivity. In the same way, by comparing black-and-white Holstein versus Zebu + crossbreed Zebu/Holstein (p=0.01), it was noted that there is 2.23 times more chance for seropositivity in Holstein cattle. There were no significant differences concerning the comparison of Holstein cattle versus crossbreed Zebu/Holstein (p=0.08) or Zebu versus crossbreed Zebu/Holstein (p=0.11). This study supports the hypothesis that there is a close association between cattle breeds and the frequency of infection by N. caninum.

Inflation bias: an appraisal

This short paper offers a brief appraisal of the conventional inflation bias and Cukierman's new inflation bias. It may also be seen that a lack of equilibrium in the balance of payments represents another reason for the emergence of the inflationary bias in an economy.

Metas inflacionárias: a análise convencional e um modelo alternativo

Inflation targeting: the conventional analysis and an alternative model. This article has two aims: the first one is to present a formal model of the monetary policy identified generally as "inflation targeting policy", an instrument of intervention of the central bank, through the short run nominal interest rate. The second aim is to discuss and criticize the theoretical assumptions of the model specially the concepts of "natural rate of interest" and of potential product presented by the "augmented Philips curve"; and to present a more realistic control of inflation targeting which does not assume the hypotheses above, and in which inflation targeting is based on the control of real rate of interest.

Global booms and busts: how is Brazil's middle class faring?

Brazil's Post War economic history has been marked by inflationary booms and busts, which kept large parts of the population poor, as income distribution remained highly skewed, and most governments failed to put enough efforts and resources into education and health. That seems to have changed recently, as an increasing number of studies have shown considerable advances in the incomes of the lower and the middle classes. This essay examines those findings and puts them into a historical perspective, discussing earlier attempts and hopes of Brazilian policy makers to advance the welfare of the population. It concludes that while the last fifteen years have been remarkable for the country to achieve macroeconomic stability and while the increasing efforts of supporting the poor seemed to have been moving income distribution slowly towards a more equal level, there is still a long way to go. The 2008 world financial crisis also hit Brazil hard, but the recovery has been smoother and faster than in any OECD country. The impact of the current crisis may provide a good test as to the robustness of the previous trends to further the wellbeing of the poor and the middle class

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.

A note on the Pazos-Simonsen mechanism and Kaldor's early research on Latin American inflation

In contrast with the inflationary finance story, inflation acceleration in Latin America has been explained as the result of the interaction of inflation dynamics and the frequency of wage adjustments. Accordingly, small inflation disturbances are connected with a shift from moderate to high inflation (or beyond to hyperinflation) though a mechanism that makes adjustment intervals in wage contracts endogenous. Rudiger Dornbusch (1986) labeled this process the "Pazos-Simonsen mechanism". In this note we summarize the basic contribution of both Felipe Pazos (1978) and Mario Henrique Simonsen (1983) and find crucial differences between their views on wage dynamics, specifically regarding the endogeneity of the time interval between wage readjustments. A remarkable affinity with Pazos's view on wage dynamics and inflation is found in an early and almost unknown essay written by Nicholas Kaldor in 1957 (inspired in his brief experience in Latin America).

Mário Henrique Simonsen e a construção do conceito de inflação inercial

The paper analyzes the contributions of Mário Henrique Simonsen to the construction of the concept of inertial inflation and to its connected literature. Simonsen's curve, in which the idea of inertial inflation was implicit, is analyzed, alongside with the feedback model (modelo de realimentação) and it's shown how Simonsen built a model which considered inflationary inertia, neutralization possibilities and possible problems and costs of stabilization, anticipating many of the issued that guided the debate in the 1980s.