Impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climate risk for cotton cultivation in Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of the temperature increase forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on agricultural zoning of cotton production in Brazil. The Northeastern region showed the highest decrease in the low-risk area for cotton cultivation due to the projected temperature increase. This area in the Brazilian Northeast may decrease from 83 million ha in 2010 to approximately 71 million ha in 2040, which means 15% reduction in 30 years. Southeastern and Center-Western regions had small decrease in areas suitable for cotton production until 2040, while the Northern region showed no reduction in these areas. Temperature increase will not benefit cotton cultivation in Brazil because dimension of low-risk areas for economic cotton production may decrease.

Impacts of vinasse and methods of sugarcane harvesting on the availability of K and carbon stock of an Argisol

ABSTRACT Soils of tropical regions are more weathered and in need of conservation managements to maintain and improve the quality of its components. The objective of this study was to evaluate the availability of K, the organic matter content and the stock of total carbon of an Argisol after vinasse application and manual and mechanized harvesting of burnt and raw sugarcane, in western São Paulo.The data collection was done in the 2012/2013 harvest, in a bioenergy company in Presidente Prudente/SP. The research was arranged out following a split-plot scheme in a 5x5 factorial design, characterized by four management systems: without vinasse application and harvest without burning; with vinasse application and harvest without burning; with vinasse application and harvest after burning; without vinasse application and harvest after burning; plus native forest, and five soil sampling depths (0-10 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-50 cm), with four replications. In each treatment, the K content in the soil and accumulated in the remaining dry biomass in the area, the levels of organic matter, organic carbon and soil carbon stock were determined. The mean values were compared by Tukey test. The vinasse application associated with the harvest without burning increased the K content in soil layers up to 40 cm deep. The managements without vinasse application and manual harvest after burning, and without vinasse application with mechanical harvesting without burning did not increase the levels of organic matter, organic carbon and stock of total soil organic carbon, while the vinasse application and harvest after burning and without burning increased the levels of these attributes in the depth of 0-10 cm.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Impacts of different management systems on the physical quality of an Amazonian Oxisol

The physical quality of Amazonian soils is relatively unexplored, due to the unique characteristics of these soils. The index of soil physical quality is a widely accepted measure of the structural quality of soils and has been used to specify the structural quality of some tropical soils, as for example of the Cerrado ecoregion of Brazil. The research objective was to evaluate the physical quality index of an Amazonian dystrophic Oxisol under different management systems. Soils under five managements were sampled in Paragominas, State of Pará: 1) a 20-year-old second-growth forest (Forest); 2) Brachiaria sp pasture; 3) four years of no-tillage (NT4.); 4) eight years of no-tillage (NT8); and 5) two years of conventional tillage (CT2). The soil samples were evaluated for bulk density, macro and microporosity and for soil water retention. The physical quality index of the samples was calculated and the resulting value correlated with soil organic matter, bulk density and porosity. The surface layers of all systems were more compacted than those of the forest. The physical quality of the soil was best represented by the relations of the S index to bulk density and soil organic matter.

Impacts of land leveling on lowland soil physical properties

The practice of land leveling alters the soil surface to create a uniform slope to improve land conditions for the application of all agricultural practices. The aims of this study were to evaluate the impacts of land leveling through the magnitudes, variances and spatial distributions of selected soil physical properties of a lowland area in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; the relationships between the magnitude of cuts and/or fills and soil physical properties after the leveling process; and evaluation of the effect of leveling on the spatial distribution of the top of the B horizon in relation to the soil surface. In the 0-0.20 m layer, a 100-point geo-referenced grid covering two taxonomic soil classes was used in assessment of the following soil properties: soil particle density (Pd) and bulk density (Bd); total porosity (Tp), macroporosity (Macro) and microporosity (Micro); available water capacity (AWC); sand, silt, clay, and dispersed clay in water (Disp clay) contents; electrical conductivity (EC); and weighted average diameter of aggregates (WAD). Soil depth to the top of the B horizon was also measured before leveling. The overall effect of leveling on selected soil physical properties was evaluated by paired "t" tests. The effect on the variability of each property was evaluated through the homogeneity of variance test. The thematic maps constructed by kriging or by the inverse of the square of the distances were visually analyzed to evaluate the effect of leveling on the spatial distribution of the properties and of the top of the B horizon in relation to the soil surface. Linear regression models were fitted with the aim of evaluating the relationship between soil properties and the magnitude of cuts and fills. Leveling altered the mean value of several soil properties and the agronomic effect was negative. The mean values of Bd and Disp clay increased and Tp, Macro and Micro, WAD, AWC and EC decreased. Spatial distributions of all soil physical properties changed as a result of leveling and its effect on all soil physical properties occurred in the whole area and not specifically in the cutting or filling areas. In future designs of leveling, we recommend overlaying a cut/fill map on the map of soil depth to the top of the B horizon in order to minimize areas with shallow surface soil after leveling.

Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Brazilian East Coast

The Brazilian East coast was intensely affected by deforestation, which drastically cut back the original biome. The possible impacts of this process on water resources are still unknown. The purpose of this study was an evaluation of the impacts of deforestation on the main water balance components of the Galo creek watershed, in the State of Espírito Santo, on the East coast of Brazil. Considering the real conditions of the watershed, the SWAT model was calibrated with data from 1997 to 2000 and validated for the period between 2001 and 2003. The calibration and validation processes were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and by the statistical parameters (determination coefficient, slope coefficient and F test) of the regression model adjusted for estimated and measured flow data. After calibration and validation of the model, new simulations were carried out for three different land use scenarios: a scenario in compliance with the law (C1), assuming the preservation of PPAs (permanent preservation areas); an optimistic scenario (C2), which considers the watershed to be almost entirely covered by native vegetation; and a pessimistic scenario (C3), in which the watershed would be almost entirely covered by pasture. The scenarios C1, C2 and C3 represent a soil cover of native forest of 76, 97 and 0 %, respectively. The results were compared with the simulation, considering the real scenario (C0) with 54 % forest cover. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.65 and 0.70 for calibration and validation, respectively, indicating satisfactory results in the flow simulation. A mean reduction of 10 % of the native forest cover would cause a mean annual increase of approximately 11.5 mm in total runoff at the watershed outlet. Reforestation would ensure minimum flows in the dry period and regulate the maximum flow of the main watercourse of the watershed.

Impacts of the application of swine wastewater in percolate and in soil cultivated with soybean

The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible impacts caused in the soil and in the percolate in lysimeters of drainage with application of different rates of swine wastewater (SW) during the cycle of soybean culture and to assess the productivity of it. The experiment was conducted at the Agricultural Engineering Experimental Center of UNIOESTE. The soil was classified as typical Distroferric Red Latosol. There were twenty-four drainage lysimeters in the area in which the soybean was cultivated, cultivar CD 214. Four SW depths (0; 100; 200 and 300 m³ ha-1) were applied to the soil seven days before the sowing in a single application combined with two mineral fertilizations in the sowing (with and without recommended fertilization during sowing), and three repetitions per treatment. It was realized three collections of percolate in each experimental portion, the first was conducted 40 days after sowing (DAS); the second at 72 DAS, and the third at the end of crop cycle (117 DAS). It was evaluated in the percolate the pH, calcium, magnesium, potassium, phosphorus, and total nitrogen. Based on the results, it was possible to observe that the level of K, P and N in the soil increased according tothe increase of SW rates. The levels of K and P in the percolate were higher for higher rates of SW. The productivity was not influenced by the application of SW or by fertilization.

Impacts of the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam construction on pioneer vegetation formations along the Xingu River, Pará State, Brazil

There is an important pioneer vegetation formation along the Xingu River in the area where the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam is being constructed that is highly adapted to a seasonally fluctuating water levels. The aim of this study was to examine the habitat and flora of the pioneer formations in the Belo Monte area. The area was divided in three sections for study purposes (Reservoir, Low Flow, and Control) that were expected to experience different degrees of impact from the dam project. The calculations of habitat losses were based on satellite imagery classifications, and a total of 111 plots were established in the three areas for vegetation sampling. Habitat losses of the pioneer formations will total 89.7% when the project is fully functional. Forty-five of the 72 recorded species are restricted to single areas. Species richness and diversity were significantly lower in the control area. The completion of the Belo Monte reservoir will result in habitat reductions and will consequently reduce the richness and diversity of pioneer formations. Studies suggest monitoring the populations located in the reduced flow area to determine possible impacts resulting from changes in the regional hydrological cycle caused by the Xingu River dam.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.