A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Macroinvertebrates under stochastic hydrological disturbance in Cerrado streams of Central Brazil

In the Cerrado vegetation, where the seasonal is well defined, rainfall has an important role in controlling the flow of streams and consequently on the structure of macroinvertebrates community. Despite the effects of rainfall associated with seasonality are well studied, little is known about the effects of stochastic rains on the community. In the present study we evaluated the structure and faunal composition of four first-order streams in Central Brazil during the dry season in two years, with and without stochastic rains. Community sampling was done by colonization of boards of high density polyethylene (HDPE), removed after one month submerged in streams. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) performed indicated no difference in rarefied richness between the two periods, different from numeric density of organisms that was higher in the period without disturbance; moreover, the Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) revealed differences in faunal composition between the two periods. Our results indicate that stochastic rainfall is an important factor in structuring the macroinvertebrates community in studied region.

The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Numerical analysis of the impact of charcoal production on soil hydrological behavior, runoff response and erosion susceptibility

The impact of charcoal production on soil hydraulic properties, runoff response and erosion susceptibility were studied in both field and simulation experiments. Core and composite samples, from 12 randomly selected sites within the catchment of Kotokosu were taken from the 0-10 cm layer of a charcoal site soil (CSS) and adjacent field soils (AFS). These samples were used to determine saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), bulk density, total porosity, soil texture and color. Infiltration, surface albedo and soil surface temperature were also measured in both CSS and AFS. Measured properties were used as entries in a rainfall runoff simulation experiment on a smooth (5 % slope) plot of 25 x 25 m grids with 10 cm resolutions. Typical rainfall intensities of the study watershed (high, moderate and low) were applied to five different combinations of Ks distributions that could be expected in this landscape. The results showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher flow characteristics of the soil under charcoal kilns (increase of 88 %). Infiltration was enhanced and runoff volume reduced significantly. The results showed runoff reduction of about 37 and 18 %, and runoff coefficient ranging from 0.47-0.75 and 0.04-0.39 or simulation based on high (200 mm h-1) and moderate (100 mm h-1) rainfall events over the CSS and AFS areas, respectively. Other potential impacts of charcoal production on watershed hydrology were described. The results presented, together with watershed measurements, when available, are expected to enhance understanding of the hydrological responses of ecosystems to indiscriminate charcoal production and related activities in this region.

Hydrological processes obtained on the plot scale under four simulated rainfall tests during the cycle of different crop systems

The cropping system influences the interception of water by plants, water storage in depressions on the soil surface, water infiltration into the soil and runoff. The aim of this study was to quantify some hydrological processes under no tillage cropping systems at the edge of a slope, in 2009 and 2010, in a Humic Dystrudept soil, with the following treatments: corn, soybeans, and common beans alone; and intercropped corn and common bean. Treatments consisted of four simulated rainfall tests at different times, with a planned intensity of 64 mm h-1 and 90 min duration. The first test was applied 18 days after sowing, and the others at 39, 75 and 120 days after the first test. Different times of the simulated rainfall and stages of the crop cycle affected soil water content prior to the rain, and the time runoff began and its peak flow and, thus, the surface hydrological processes. The depth of the runoff and the depth of the water intercepted by the crop + soil infiltration + soil surface storage were affected by the crop systems and the rainfall applied at different times. The corn crop was the most effective treatment for controlling runoff, with a water loss ratio of 0.38, equivalent to 75 % of the water loss ratio exhibited by common bean (0.51), the least effective treatment in relation to the others. Total water loss by runoff decreased linearly with an increase in the time that runoff began, regardless of the treatment; however, soil water content on the gravimetric basis increased linearly from the beginning to the end of the rainfall.

A new method to simulate the hydrological state of soil under natural conditions

Micro, macro and mesofauna in the soil often respond to fluctuating environmental conditions, resulting in changes of abundance and community structure. Effects of changing soil parameters are normally determined with samples taken in the field and brought to the laboratory, i.e. where natural environmental conditions may not apply. We devised a method (STAFD - soil tubes for artificial flood and drought), which simulates the hydrological state of soil in situ using implanted cores. Control tubes were compared with treatment tubes in which floods of 15, 30, 60 and 90 days, and droughts of 60, 90 and 120 days were simulated in the field. Flooding and drought were found to reduce number of individuals in all soil faunal groups, but the response to drought was slower and not in proportion to the expected decrease of the water content. The results of the simulated floods in particular show the value of the STAFD method for the investigation of such extreme events in natural habitats.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

METHODOLOGY FOR AUTOMATICALLY DELIMITING PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS ALONG WATER COURSES - THE USE OF GIS IN THE HYDROLOGICAL BASIN OF THE SERGIPE RIVER, BRAZIL

ABSTRACT Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) along watercourses have been the focus of numerous studies, not only because of the fragility and ecological relevance of riverine vegetation, but also because of the inefficiency demonstrated in conforming to the legislation protecting it. One of the major difficulties encountered in terms of guaranteeing the effective conservation of these riverside areas is the absence of methodologies that can be used to define them rapidly and accurately without manually determining the widths of the rivers or assigning only uniform linear values for the entire watercourse. The present work sought to develop a spatial analysis methodology capable of automatically defining permanent preservation areas along watercourses using geographic information system (GIS) software. The present study was undertaken in the Sergipe River basin, "considering the river itself and its principal affluents. We used the database of the Digital Atlas of Hydrological Resources (SEMARH/SE), and the delimitations of the PPAs were performed using ArcGIS 10.1 and the XToolPro 9.0 extension. A total of 5,003.82 hectares of Permanent Preservation Areas were delimited along the margins of the rivers analyzed, with a margin of error of <1% in delimiting the widths of the rivers within the entire area considered. The methodology described here can be used to define PPAs efficiently, relatively rapidly, and with very small margins of error, thus representing a technological advance in terms of using GIS for land management.

Hydrological simulation using SWAT model in headwater basin in Southeast Brazil

Hydrological models are important tools that have been used in water resource planning and management. Thus, the aim of this work was to calibrate and validate in a daily time scale, the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to the watershed of the Galo creek , located in Espírito Santo State. To conduct the study we used georeferenced maps of relief, soil type and use, in addition to historical daily time series of basin climate and flow. In modeling were used time series corresponding to the periods Jan 1, 1995 to Dec 31, 2000 and Jan 1, 2001 to Dec 20, 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. Model performance evaluation was done using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (E NS) and the percentage of bias (P BIAS). SWAT evaluation was also done in the simulation of the following hydrological variables: maximum and minimum annual daily flowsand minimum reference flows, Q90 and Q95, based on mean absolute error. E NS and P BIAS were, respectively, 0.65 and 7.2% and 0.70 and 14.1%, for calibration and validation, indicating a satisfactory performance for the model. SWAT adequately simulated minimum annual daily flow and the reference flows, Q90 and Q95; it was not suitable in the simulation of maximum annual daily flows.

MÉTODOS COLABORATIVOS NA GESTÃO DE CADEIAS DE SUPRIMENTOS: DESAFIOS DE IMPLEMENTAÇÃO

RESUMOO tema gestão colaborativa vem sendo abordado como forma de gerar vantagem competitiva. Iniciativas colaborativas em cadeias de suprimentos (CS) proporcionaram o surgimento de métodos e práticas que corroboram a ideia de que a competitividade não se dá mais entre empresas isoladas, e sim entre cadeias. Na literatura, além de métodos colaborativos para a gestão da cadeia de suprimentos (GCS), é possível encontrar iniciativas para projeto, configuração, otimização, entre outras. Porém, observa-se baixa adesão de métodos colaborativos para a GCS, assim como dificuldades de implementação. O objetivo do artigo é investigar os métodos colaborativos referentes à coordenação de CS e analisar suas características e dificuldades de implementação. Uma revisão sistemática apontou o Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) como o método colaborativo mais abordado e, posteriormente, um estudo de caso identificou dificuldades na implementação que colaboraram com o que foi pesquisado na literatura.

Smoking, consumption of alcohol and sedentary life style in population grouping and their relationships with lipemic disorders

The study, part of the project "Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, lipemic disorders, hypertension, obesity and diabetis mellitus in a population of the metropolitan area of the southeastern region of Brazil", had the following objectives: a) the characterization and distribution among typical human socio-economic groupings, of the prevalence of some particular habits which constitute aspects of life-style-the use of tobacco, the use of alcohol and sedentary activity; b) the establishment of the interrelation between the above-mentioned habits and some lipemic disorders. The prevalence of the habits cited behaved in the following manner: the use of tobacco predominated among men, distributed uniformly throughout the social strata; among the women the average percentage of smokers was 18,9%, a significant difference occurring among the highest socio-economic class, where the average was of 40.2%. The sedentary style of life presented high prevalence, among both men and women with exception of the women of the highest socio-economic level and of the skilled working class. The use of alcohol, as one would expect, is a habit basically practised by the men, without any statistically significant differences between classes. For the purpose of establishing associations between these risk fictors and lipemic conditions four situations were chosen, of the following characteristics: 1- total cholesterol > or = 220 mg/dl and triglycerides > or = 150 mg/dl; 2- HDL cholesterol <35 mg/dl for men and <45 mg/dl for women and triglycerides levels > or = 150 mg/dl; 3- HDL cholesterol <35 mg/dl for men and <45 mg/dl for women and triglycerides levels <150 mg/dl; 4- total cholesterol 220 mg/dl with triglycerides levels <150 mg/dl. Six models of multiple (backward) regression were established, with seven independent variables- age, sex, use of tobacco, consumption of alcohol, light physical activity, hypertension and obesity. Significant associations (P<0,05) were revealed with hypercholesterolemia, accompanied by triglyceride levels > or = 150 mg/dl, and the following independent variables: age, use of tobacco and the interactions between obesity and smoking, age and sedentary lifestyle, sex and obesity (R2=22%); the standardized B coefficient showed that the variables with the greatest weight in the forecasting of the variation in the levels of cholesterol were smoking and the interaction between obesity and smoking. The hypercholesterolemia accompanied by triglycerides levels <150 mg/dl showed a positive association between total cholesterol and sex and the interactions obesity/smoking and sex/obesity. As regards HDL cholesterol accompanied by triglyceride/ levels > or = 150 mg/dl was inversely associated with obesity and the interaction smoking/ age and directly with age (R=31%). The standardized B coeffients, indicated that the variables obesity and the interactions smoking/age possessed a weight three times greater than age alone in accounting for the variation in the serum levels of HDL cholesterol. When accompanied by triglycerides <150 mg/dl there was no association between and the independent variables and the set of them presented R equal to 22%. The sum of top, in the population stutied in this project, the component habits of life-style (smoking, alcohol consumption and sedentary activity) which constitute risk factors which determine morbidity from atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases are be found distributed through all the typical social groupings of this particular form of social organization. On the other hand, the seven independent variables used in the multiple regression models for the explanation of the lipemic conditions considered presented multiple determination coefficients which varied, approximately, between 20% and 30%. Thus it is important that in the genetic epidemiology the study of the morbidities in question be emphasized.

Strategies of the small-scale fisheries on the Central Amazon floodplain

A multivariate approach was applied to data of small-scale fisheries developed in Central Amazon, using information about catch composition, environment, fishing gear and season of the hydrological cycle. The correspondence analysis demonstrated to be a good tool for the analysis related multispecies fisheries. The analysis identified patterns of use of fisheries resources by the riverine communities, showing the correlation between the environmental factors and the fishing strategy for the capture of target fish species, indicating the high level of empiric knowledge about the environment and fisheries.

Social wasps of two wetland ecosystems in brazilian Amazonia (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

In Brazilian Amazonia, 20 genera and more than 200 species of polistine wasps are recorded. Local faunas with 70 to 80 species are usually found in non floodable forest environments. However, a variety of wetlands exist in the region, the most expressive in surface area being varzea systems. In this paper, information is presented on polistines from two areas of wetlands in the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Amapá. These are reciprocally compared and also with nearby terra firme locations. Collecting methods consisted of active search for nests, handnetting and automatic trapping of individuals. Forty-six species of 15 genera were collected in Mamirauá, AM, most being widespread common wasps. However, five species deserve special mention in virtue of rarity and/or restricted distribution: Metapolybia rufata, Chartergellus nigerrimus, Chartergellus punctatior, Clypearia duckei, and Clypearia weyrauchi. In Região dos Lagos, AP, 31 species of 9 genera were collected, nearly all being common species with the exception of some Polistes, like P. goeldi and P. occipitalis. Even though less rich than vespid faunas from terra firme habitats, the Mamirauá fauna proved to be quite expressive considering limitations imposed by the hydrological regime. In Região dos Lagos, however, the very low diversity found was below the worst expectations. The virtual absence of otherwise common species in environments like tidal varzea forests along Araguari River is truly remarkable. The causes of low diversity are probably related to isolation and relative immaturity of the region, allied to strong degradation of forested habitats.