Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

Global coordination: weighted voting

In order to halt the depletion of global ecological capital, a number of different kinds of meetings between Governments of countries in the world has been scheduled. The need for global coordination of environmental policies has become ever more obvious, supported by more and more evidence of the running down of ecological capital. But there are no formal or binding arrangements in sight, as global environmental coordination suffers from high transaction costs (qualitative voting). The CO2 equivalent emissions, resulting in global warming, are driven by the unstoppable economic expansion in the global market economy, employing mainly fossil fuel generated energy, although at the same time lifting sharply the GDP per capita of several emerging countries. Only global environmental coordination on the successful model of the World Band and the IMF (quantitative voting) can stem the rising emissions numbers and stop further environmental degradation. However, the system of weighted voting in the WB and the IMF must be reformed by reducing the excessive voting power disparities, for instance by reducing all member country votes by the cube root expression.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in an Ultisol treated with sewage sludge and cultivated with castor bean

Organic residue application into soil alter the emission of gases to atmosphere and CO2, CH4, N2O may contribute to increase the greenhouse effect. This experiment was carried out in a restoration area on a dystrophic Ultisol (PVAd) to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soil under castor bean cultivation, treated with sewage sludge (SS) or mineral fertilizer. The following treatments were tested: control without N; FertMin = mineral fertilizer; SS5 = 5 t ha-1 SS (37.5 kg ha-1 N); SS10 = 10 t ha-1 SS (75 kg ha-1 N); and SS20 = 20 t ha-1 SS (150 kg ha-1 N). The amount of sludge was based on the recommended rate of N for castor bean (75 kg ha-1), the N level of SS and the mineralization fraction of N from SS. Soil gas emission was measured for 21 days. Sewage sludge and mineral fertilizers altered the CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes. Soil moisture had no effect on GHG emissions and the gas fluxes was statistically equivalent after the application of FertMin and of 5 t ha-1 SS. The application of the entire crop N requirement in the form of SS practically doubled the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the C equivalent emissions in comparison with FertMin treatments.

Postharvest nitrous oxide emissions from a subtropical oxisol as influenced by summer crop residues and their management

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important non-CO2 greenhouse gas and soil management systems should be evaluated for their N2O mitigation potential. This research evaluated a long-term (22 years) experiment testing the effect of soil management systems on N2O emissions in the postharvest period (autumn) from a subtropical Rhodic Hapludox at the research center FUNDACEP, in Cruz Alta, state of Rio Grande do Sul. Three treatments were evaluated, one under conventional tillage with soybean residues (CTsoybean) and two under no-tillage with soybean (NTsoybean) and maize residues (NTmaize). N2O emissions were measured eight times within 24 days (May 2007) using closed static chambers. Gas flows were obtained based on the relations between gas concentrations in the chamber at regular intervals (0, 15, 30, 45 min) analyzed by gas chromatography. After soybean harvest, accumulated N2O emissions in the period were approximately three times higher in the untilled soil (164 mg m-2 N) than under CT (51 mg m-2 N), with a short-lived N2O peak of 670 mg m-2 h-1 N. In contrast, soil N2O emissions in NT were lower after maize than after soybean, with a N2O peak of 127 g m-2 h-1 N. The multivariate analysis of N2O fluxes and soil variables, which were determined simultaneously with air sampling, demonstrated that the main driving variables of soil N2O emissions were soil microbial activity, temperature, water-filled pore space, and NO3- content. To replace soybean monoculture, crop rotation including maize must be considered as a strategy to decrease soil N2O emissions from NT soils in Southern Brazil in a Autumn.

Mitigation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from flood-irrigated rice by no incorporation of winter crop residues into the soil

Winter cover crops are sources of C and N in flooded rice production systems, but very little is known about the effect of crop residue management and quality on soil methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. This study was conducted in pots in a greenhouse to evaluate the influence of crop residue management (incorporated into the soil or left on the soil surface) and the type of cover-crop residues (ryegrass and serradella) on CH4 and N2O emissions from a flooded Albaqualf soil cultivated with rice (Oryza sativa L.). The closed chamber technique was used for air sampling and the CH4 and N2O concentrations were analyzed by gas chromatography. Soil solution was sampled at two soil depths (2 and 20 cm), simultaneously to air sampling, and the contents of dissolved organic C (DOC), NO3-, NH4+, Mn2+, and Fe2+ were analyzed. Methane and N2O emissions from the soil where crop residues had been left on the surface were lower than from soil with incorporated residues. The type of crop residue had no effect on the CH4 emissions, while higher N2O emissions were observed from serradella (leguminous) than from ryegrass, but only when the residues were left on the soil surface. The more intense soil reduction verified in the deeper soil layer (20 cm), as evidenced by higher contents of reduced metal species (Mn2+ and Fe2+), and the close relationship between CH4 emission and the DOC contents in the deeper layer indicated that the sub-surface layer was the main CH4 source of the flooded soil with incorporated crop residues. The adoption of management strategies in which crop residues are left on the soil surface is crucial to minimize soil CH4 and N2O emissions from irrigated rice fields. In these production systems, CH4 accounts for more than 90 % of the partial global warming potential (CH4+N2O) and, thus, should be the main focus of research.

Influence of liming on residual soil respiration and chemical properties in a tropical no-tillage system

Because of the climate changes occurring across the planet, especially global warming, the different forms of agricultural soil use have attracted researchers´ attention. Changes in soil management may influence soil respiration and, consequently, C sequestration. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the long-term influence of liming on soil respiration and correlate it with soil chemical properties after two years of liming in a no-tillage system. A randomized complete block design was used with six replications. The experimental treatments consisted of four lime rates and a control treatment without lime. Two years after liming, soil CO2 emission was measured and the soil sampled (layers 0-5, 5-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm). The P, Ca2+ e Mg2+ soil contents and pH and base saturation were determined. CO2 emission from soil limed at the recommended rate was 24.1 % higher, and at twice the recommended rate, 47.4 % higher than from unlimed soil. Liming improved the chemical properties, and the linear increase in soil respiration rate correlated positively with the P, Ca2+ and Mg2+ soil contents, pH and base saturation, and negatively with H + Al and Al3+ contents. The correlation coefficient between soil respiration rate and chemical properties was highest in the 10-20 cm layer.

Use of steel slag to neutralize acid mine drainage (AMD) in sulfidic material from a uranium mine

Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) is one of the main environmental impacts caused by mining. Thus, innovative mitigation strategies should be exploited, to neutralize acidity and prevent mobilization of trace elements in AMD. The use of industrial byproducts has been considered an economically and environmentally effective alternative to remediate acid mine drainage. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the use of steel slag to mitigate acid mine drainage in a sulfidic material from a uranium mine, as an alternative to the use of limestone. Thus, increasing doses of two neutralizing agents were applied to a sulfidic material from the uranium mine Osamu Utsumi in Caldas, Minas Gerais State. A steel slag from the company ArcelorMittal Tubarão and a commercial limestone were used as neutralizing agents. The experiment was conducted in leaching columns, arranged in a completely randomized, [(2 x 3) + 1] factorial design, consisting of two neutralizing agents, three doses and one control, in three replications, totaling 21 experimental units. Electrical conductivity (EC), pH and the concentrations of Al, As, Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, S, Se, and Zn were evaluated in the leached solutions. The trace element concentration was evaluated by ICP-OES. Furthermore, the CO2 emission was measured at the top of the leaching columns by capturing in NaOH solution and titration with HCl, in the presence of BaCl2. An increase in the pH of the leachate was observed for both neutralizing agents, with slightly higher values for steel slag. The EC was lower at the higher lime dose at an early stage of the experiment, and CO2 emission was greater with the use of limestone compared to steel slag. A decrease in trace element mobilization in the presence of both neutralizing agents was also observed. Therefore, the results showed that the use of steel slag is a suitable alternative to mitigate AMD, with the advantage of reducing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere compared to limestone.

EFFECT OF RICE STRAW AND NITRATE LEVELS IN SOIL SOLUTION ON NITROUS OXIDE EMISSION

Among the greenhouse gases, nitrous oxide (N2O) is considered important, in view of a global warming potential 296 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and its dynamics strongly depend on the availability of C and mineral N in the soil. The understanding of the factors that define emissions is essential to develop mitigation strategies. This study evaluated the dynamics of N2O emissions after the application of different rice straw amounts and nitrate levels in soil solution. Pots containing soil treated with sodium nitrate rates (0, 50 and 100 g kg-1 of NO−3-N) and rice straw levels (0, 5 and 10 Mg ha-1), i.e., nine treatments, were subjected to anaerobic conditions. The results showed that N2O emissions were increased by the addition of greater NO−3 amounts and reduced by large straw quantities applied to the soil. On the 1st day after flooding (DAF), significantly different N2O emissions were observed between the treatments with and without NO−3 addition, when straw had no significant influence on N2O levels. Emissions peaked on the 4th DAF in the treatments with highest NO−3-N addition. At this moment, straw application negatively affected N2O emissions, probably due to NO−3 immobilization. There were also alterations in other soil electrochemical characteristics, e.g., higher straw levels raised the Fe, Mn and dissolved C contents. These results indicate that a lowering of NO−3 concentration in the soil and the increase of straw incorporation can decrease N2O emissions.

Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil

The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from 1961-1990. The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.