Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.

The influence of temperature and humidity on abundance and richness of Calliphoridae (Diptera)

The blowfly species are important components in necrophagous communities of the Neotropics. Besides being involved in the degradation of animal organic matter, they may serve as vectors for pathogens and parasites, and also cause primary and secondary myiasis. The occurrence pattern of these species is well defined, yet it is still not very clear which of these environmental factors determine the structure of the assemblies. This paper was developed to evaluate the influence of mean temperature and relative humidity variation in the abundance and richness of blowflies in the Brazilian southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, where temperature variation is well marked throughout the year. To evaluate this objective, WOT (Wind Oriented Trap) were installed with beef liver as bait in three environments for 10 consecutive days in each month between July 2003 and June 2004. A total of 13,860 flies were collected distributed among 16 species with a higher frequency of Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann, 1819) and Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819). The mean temperature and relative humidity influence the richness of blowflies, with greater richness and abundance in late spring and early summer, whereas abundance was only influenced by temperature. Each species responded differently with respect to these variables, where L. eximia is not influenced by any of the two abiotic factors, despite the high abundance presented. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity for the presence or absence of species of Calliphoridae and on the variation of the abundance of these species under regime temperature changes and relative humidity with implications for public health and animal management.

Kinetic parameters of soil β-glucosidase response to environmental temperature and moisture regimes

Soil β-glucosidase participates in the final step of cellulose biodegradation. It is significant in the soil C cycle and is used as an indicator of the biological fertility of soil. However, the response of its kinetic parameters to environmental temperature and moisture regimes is not well understood. This study tested the β-glucosidase response in the main agricultural soils (black soil, albic soil, brown soil, and cinnamon soil) of Northeast China. Incubation tests were conducted to measure the kinetic parameters Km, Vmax or Vmax/Km of soil β-glucosidase at environmental temperatures of 10, 20 and 30 ºC and at 10, 20 and 30 % soil moisture content. The insensitive response of the kinetic parameters to temperature changes indicates that soil β-glucosidase was present primarily in immobilized form. The significant response of the kinetic parameters of soil β-glucosidase to soil moisture rather than to environmental temperatures suggests that the catalytic ability of soil β-glucosidase was sensitive to changing soil moisture regimes.

Preliminary observations on the effect of sudden changes of temperature on survival of young Matrinxã (Brycon cephalus) under laboratory conditions

Matrinxã is a very promising amazonian fish for fish culture in Brazil. This study is aimed at determining the approximate tolerated temperature range in this species. Groups of ten young matrinxã specimens (15.1±0.8 cm average length and 58.3±10.3 g average weight) were subjected to 9 different temperatures for 24 hours without previous acclimation. Fish were transferred from an initial temperature of 27ºC to those ranging from 12 to 39ºC at 3ºC intervals. Both 12ºC and 39ºC temperatures were lethal for this species with 100% mortality rate. Following 2 minutes of exposure to 39ºC fish changed behavior, showing an increase in opercular movements and erratic swimming; mortality reached 100% after 18 minutes. At 12ºC, fish lost equilibrium immediately after exposure and started swimming erratically; after only 4 minutes fish became lethargic and remained immobile on the bottom of the tank. Total mortality was only evident following 24 hours. At 15ºC matrinxã lost equilibrium after 5 to 6 minutes of exposure but mortality was only 20% after 24 hours. Fish tolerated well temperatures ranging from 18 to 36ºC with 100% survival after 24 hours. This preliminary study suggests that temperatures between 18 and 36ºC are the approximate range normally tolerated by this species, although survival at other temperatures may be increased by gradually acclimating fish to the more severe increases or decreases in temperature. In addition, it indicates that matrinxã may be cultivated over a wide geographical area.

Long-term changes in rice development in Southern Brazil, during the last ten decades

The objective of this work was to test long-term trends in the duration of rice development phases in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The duration from emergence to V3 (EM-V3), emergence to panicle differentiation (EM-R1), emergence to anthesis (EM-R4), and emergence to all grains with brown hull (EM-R9) was calculated using leaf appearance and developmental models for four rice cultivars (IRGA 421, IRGA 417, EPAGRI 109, and EEA 406), for the period from 1912 to 2011, considering three emergence dates (early, mid, and late). The trend of the time series was tested with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated with simple linear regression. Rice development has changed over the last ten decades in this location, leading to an anticipation of harvest time of 17 to 31 days, depending on the cultivar maturity group and emergence date, which is related to trends of temperature increase during the growing season. Warmer temperatures over the evaluated time period are responsible for changing rice phenology in this location, since minimum and maximum daily temperature drive the rice developmental models used.

Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

Reshaping European Union development policy: collective choices and the new global order

Abstract The European Union (EU) is one of the world´s leading donors in official development assistance (ODA) to give a strong weight in the relationship with recipient partner countries, in particular with those that are more dependent on it. Besides the material weight of its funding, the EU has retained historical ties and influence in diplomatic, political and economic terms in many of its ODA recipient partner countries (particular in Sub-Saharan Africa). Since the 2000s, the EU development policy has not only undergone major structural changes in its institutional framework but also has started to face a new international aid scenario. This paper explores why a normative-based EU development policy is being challenged by reformed EU institutions and a new global order, and how the EU is attempting to respond to this context in face of the deepest recession since the end of the Second World War.

EVALUATION OF METHODS IN DETECTING VANCOMYCIN MIC AMONG MRSA ISOLATES AND THE CHANGES IN ACCURACY RELATED TO DIFFERENT MIC VALUES

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) presenting reduced susceptibility to vancomycin has been associated to therapeutic failure. Some methods used by clinical laboratories may not be sufficiently accurate to detect this phenotype, compromising results and the outcome of the patient. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of methods in the detection of vancomycin MIC values among clinical isolates of MRSA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Vancomycin Minimal Inhibitory Concentration was determined for 75 MRSA isolates from inpatients of Mãe de Deus Hospital, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The broth microdilution (BM) was used as the gold-standard technique, as well as the following methods: E-test® strips (BioMérieux), M.I.C.E® strips (Oxoid), PROBAC® commercial panel and the automated system MicroScan® (Siemens). Besides, the agar screening test was carried out with 3 µg/mL of vancomycin. RESULTS: All isolates presented MIC ≤ 2 µg/mL for BM. E-test® had higher concordance (40%) in terms of global agreement with the gold standard, and there was not statistical difference among E-test® and broth microdilution results. PROBAC® panels presented MICs, in general, lower than the gold-standard panels (58.66% major errors), while M.I.C.E.® MICs were higher (67.99% minor errors). CONCLUSIONS: For the population of MRSA in question, E-test® presented the best performance, although with a heterogeneous accuracy, depending on MIC values.

Life cycle and reproductive patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria (Blanchard, 1843) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under constant and fluctuating conditions of temperature and humidity

The aim of this study was to evaluate the temperature and relative humidity influence in the life cycle, mortality and fecundity patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria. Four cohorts with 60 recently laid eggs each were conformed. The cohorts were divided into two groups. In the controlled conditions group insects were maintained in a dark climatic chamber under constant temperature and humidity, whereas triatomines of the ambiental temperature group were maintained at room temperature. Average incubation time was 15.6 days in the controlled conditions group and 19.1 days in the ambiental temperature. In group controlled conditions the time from egg to adult development lasted 10 months while group ambiental temperature took four months longer. Egg eclosion rate was 99.1% and 98.3% in controlled conditions and ambiental temperature, respectively. Total nymphal mortality in controlled conditions was 52.6% whereas in ambiental temperature was 51.8%. Mean number of eggs/female was 817.6 controlled conditions and 837.1 ambiental temperature. Fluctuating temperature and humidity promoted changes in the life cycle duration and in the reproductive performance of this species, although not in the species mortality.

Relationship between rainfall and temperature: observations on the cases of visceral leishmaniasis in São Luis Island, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem that requires global control strategies, especially with respect to factors that may intervene in reducing the incidence of endemicity. In this work, rainfall density and temperature were correlated with the incidence of human cases in an area endemic for leishmaniasis in São Luis do Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS: Notification of human cases by the National Health Foundation/Regional Coordination of Maranhão (FUNASA/COREMA) from 2002 to 2010 was used. Ecological data (mean temperature and rainfall density) were provided by the Meteorological Office of State. RESULTS: A significant association was verified between the number of VL cases and rainfall rate but not in the analysis concerning mean temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the control actions in visceral leishmaniasis should be performed during rainy season in the State of Maranhão, which is in the first half of the year.

Changes in the amount of soluble carbohydrates and polyphenols contents during decomposition of Montrichardia arborescens (L.) Schott

This study describes the aerobic and anaerobic decay of soluble carbohydrates (CH) and polyphenols (PH) during decomposition of Montrichardia arborescens. Plant and water samples were collected in the Cantá stream (2º 49' 11" N and 60º 40' 24" W), Roraima, Brazil. Decomposition chambers with plant fragments and stream water were incubated. Particulate organic matter was separated from dissolved organic matter and concentrations of CH and PH were determined. The results were fitted to 1st order kinetics models. CH and PH comprised a labile fraction (LCH and LPH) and a refractory fraction (RCH and RPH). The global coefficient associated with LCH weight loss was 1.4 times higher under aerobic conditions (3.4 day-1) higher than for anaerobic conditions. On the other hand, the RCH decay rate in the anaerobic process (0.0074 day-1) was 1.39 times higher. LCH was estimated to be 92% while RCH amounted to 8%. The LPH anaerobic decay was 5.2 times the value for the aerobic decay (0.67 day-1). For both conditions, RPH decay coefficients were similar (» 0.011 day-1). In the aerobic experiments LPH and RPH corresponded to 92.5% and 7.5%, respectively. For the anaerobic process these contents were 85.5% and 14.5%, respectively. From these results, we concluded that in the Cantá stream, the anaerobic degradation of phenols is more efficient than the aerobic counterpart. The aerobic condition provides a faster decay of carbohydrates of this plant.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Effects of light and temperature on isoprene emission at different leaf developmental stages of eschweilera coriacea in central Amazon

Isoprene emission from plants accounts for about one third of annual global volatile organic compound emissions. The largest source of isoprene for the global atmosphere is the Amazon Basin. This study aimed to identify and quantify the isoprene emission and photosynthesis at different levels of light intensity and leaf temperature, in three phenological phases (young mature leaf, old mature leaf and senescent leaf) of Eschweilera coriacea (Matamatá verdadeira), the species with the widest distribution in the central Amazon. In situ photosynthesis and isoprene emission measurements showed that young mature leaf had the highest rates at all light intensities and leaf temperatures. Additionally, it was observed that isoprene emission capacity (Es) changed considerably over different leaf ages. This suggests that aging leads to a reduction of both leaf photosynthetic activity and isoprene production and emission. The algorithm of Guenther et al. (1999) provided good fits to the data when incident light was varied, however differences among E S of all leaf ages influenced on quantic yield predicted by model. When leaf temperature was varied, algorithm prediction was not satisfactory for temperature higher than ~40 °C; this could be because our data did not show isoprene temperature optimum up to 45 °C. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of the isoprene functional role in protecting plants from high temperatures and highlight the need to include leaf phenology effects in isoprene emission models.