Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events after ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction who undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention remains controversial. Objective: To investigate the potential association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and an increased risk of MACE such as death, heart failure, reinfarction, and new revascularization in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Methods: This prospective cohort study included 300 individuals aged >18 years who were diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction and underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention at a tertiary health center. An instrument evaluating clinical variables and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores was used. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was determined by nephelometry. The patients were followed-up during hospitalization and up to 30 days after infarction for the occurrence of MACE. Student's t, Mann-Whitney, chi-square, and logistic regression tests were used for statistical analyses. P values of ≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results: The mean age was 59.76 years, and 69.3% of patients were male. No statistically significant association was observed between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and recurrent MACE (p = 0.11). However, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was independently associated with 30-day mortality when adjusted for TIMI [odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.07-1.51; p = 0.005] and GRACE (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.49; p = 0.007) risk scores. Conclusion: Although high-sensitivity C-reactive protein was not predictive of combined major cardiovascular events within 30 days after ST-elevation myocardial infarction in patients who underwent primary angioplasty and stent implantation, it was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality.

Uso de perfis cromatográficos de voláteis de cafés arábicas torrados para a diferenciação das amostras segundo o sabor, o aroma e a qualidade global da bebida

In this work, the volatile chromatographic profiles of roasted Arabica coffees, previously analyzed for their sensorial attributes, were explored by principal component analysis. The volatile extraction technique used was the solid phase microextraction. The correlation optimized warping algorithm was used to align the gas chromatographic profiles. Fifty four compounds were found to be related to the sensorial attributes investigated. The volatiles pyrrole, 1-methyl-pyrrole, cyclopentanone, dihydro-2-methyl-3-furanone, furfural, 2-ethyl-5-methyl-pyrazine, 2-etenyl-n-methyl-pyrazine, 5-methyl-2-propionyl-furan compounds were important for the differentiation of coffee beverage according to the flavour, cleanliness and overall quality. Two figures of merit, sensitivity and specificity (or selectivity), were used to interpret the sensory attributes studied.

In vitro sensitivity of Fusarium graminearum isolates to fungicides

Head blight of wheat is a disease of global importance. In Brazil, it can cause damage of up to 27%. As resistant cultivars are not available yet, short-term disease control relies on the use of fungicides. The first step to reach effective management is to identify potent fungicides. In vitro experiments were conducted to determine the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50) for mycelial growth or conidial germination, according to the chemical group of fungicides, of five Fusarium graminearum isolates of different origins. The following demethylation inhibitor (DMI) fungicides were tested: epoxiconazole, cyproconazole, metconazole, prochloraz, protioconazole and tebuconazole. In addition, azoxystrobin, kresoxim-methyl, pyraclostrobin and trifloxystrobin were included in the study, representing Quinone outside inhibitor fungicides (QoI), as well as a tubulin synthesis inhibitor, carbendazim and two ready mixtures, trifloxystrobin + tebuconazole or trifloxistrobin + prothioconazole. DMI's showed lower IC50 values compared to the QoI's. For the five tested isolates, in the overall mean, IC50 considering mycelial growth ranged for DMI's from 0.01 mg/L (metconazole, prochloraz and prothioconazole) to 0.12 mg/L (cyproconazole) and considering conidial germination for QoI's from 0.21 mg/L (azoxystrobin) to 1.33 mg/L (trifloxystrobin). The IC50 for carbendazim was 0.07 mg/L. All tested isolates can be considered sensitive to the studied DMI's, although certain differences in sensitivity could be detected between the isolates originating from one same state.

Respiratory panic disorder subtype and sensitivity to the carbon dioxide challenge test

The aim of the present study was to verify the sensitivity to the carbon dioxide (CO2) challenge test of panic disorder (PD) patients with respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes of the disorder. Our hypothesis is that the respiratory subtype is more sensitive to 35% CO2. Twenty-seven PD subjects with or without agoraphobia were classified into respiratory and nonrespiratory subtypes on the basis of the presence of respiratory symptoms during their panic attacks. The tests were carried out in a double-blind manner using two mixtures: 1) 35% CO2 and 65% O2, and 2) 100% atmospheric compressed air, 20 min apart. The tests were repeated after 2 weeks during which the participants in the study did not receive any psychotropic drugs. At least 15 of 16 (93.7%) respiratory PD subtype patients and 5 of 11 (43.4%) nonrespiratory PD patients had a panic attack during one of two CO2 challenges (P = 0.009, Fisher exact test). Respiratory PD subtype patients were more sensitive to the CO2 challenge test. There was agreement between the severity of PD measured by the Clinical Global Impression (CGI) Scale and the subtype of PD. Higher CGI scores in the respiratory PD subtype could reflect a greater sensitivity to the CO2 challenge due to a greater severity of PD. Carbon dioxide challenges in PD may define PD subtypes and their underlying mechanisms.

Antecipando o futuro: a agenda política para a governança econômica global

Este artigo analisa a agenda política para a governança econômica global para os próximos cinqüenta anos. Segundo o autor, o grande crescimento populacional proveniente dos países pobres induzirá uma maior participação desses países na tomada de decisão no âmbito internacional, fomentando a troca de informações e experiências entre os países ricos e pobres. Por fim, há uma breve explanação de outras razões pelas quais os países emergentes deveriam ter maior voz na governança econômica global.

Unipolaridade, governabilidade global e intervenção unilateral anglo-americana no Iraque

As intervenções humanitárias (Bósnia 1995-2003, Somália 1992-1993, Kosovo 1999-2003) e de substituição de regimes ditatoriais (Haiti 1994, Afeganistão 2001-2003, Iraque 2003) na política internacional têm sido objeto de muitas controvérsias acadêmicas durante a última década. O presente artigo, à luz dos teóricos das relações internacionais e da ciência política, analisa a legitimidade dessas atitudes por meio do unilateralismo norte-americano.

Going Global: an organizational study of Brazilian foreign policy

This study analyzes the impact of globalisation on the organization and strategies outlined by the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study intends to understand how countries from the periphery deal with new institutional challenges resulting from globalization, using the case of the Brazilian diplomatic service.

O Brasil na iniciativa BRIC: soft balancing numa ordem global em mudança?

As opções de política externa do Brasil são limitadas, tendo em conta os recursos materiais superiores das grandes potências establecidas. Soft balancing envolve estratégias institucionais, tais como a formação de coalizões ou ententes diplomáticas limitadas, como BRIC, para restringir o poder das grandes potências estabelecidas. Os países BRIC tinham constado dentre os precursores mais fortes de mudança da diplomacia mundial e por sua vez se beneficiam mais destas mudanças de poder global. Dentro da ordem global modelada pelas grandes potências por meio de instituições internacionais, aqueles jogadores que operam efetivamente dentro destas como inovadores, formadores de alianças e porta-vozes, e que ao mesmo tempo conservam soberania e independência têm o potencial de influir sustancialmente os resultados de políticas futuras.