Assessing the effects of global warming and local social and economic conditions on the malaria transmission

OBJECTIVE: To show how a mathematical model can be used to describe and to understand the malaria transmission. METHODS: The effects on malaria transmission due to the impact of the global temperature changes and prevailing social and economic conditions in a community were assessed based on a previously presented compartmental model, which describes the overall transmission of malaria. RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: The assessments were made from the scenarios produced by the model both in steady state and dynamic analyses. Depending on the risk level of malaria, the effects on malaria transmission can be predicted by the temperature ambient or local social and-economic conditions.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse radiation and fractions in tilted surfaces

It was evaluated the annual evolution of global, direct and diffuse components of incident solar radiation on tilted surfaces to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85º, facing north, in Botucatu, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The radiometric fractions were obtained for each component of the radiation in the aforementioned surfaces, through the ratio with the global and top of the atmosphere radiations. Seasonality was evaluated based on monthly averages of daily values. The measures occurred between 04/1998 and 07/2001 at 22.85º; 08/2001 and 02/2003 at 12.85º; and from 03/2003 to 12/2007 at 32.85º, with concomitant measures in the horizontal surface (reference). The levels of global and direct radiation on tilted surfaces were lower in summer and higher in the equinoxes when compared with the horizontal. The diffuse radiation on tilted surfaces was lower in most months, with losses of up to 65%. A trend of increasing differences occurred between horizontal and tilted surfaces with the increase of the angle in all the components and fractions of incident radiation. The annual evolution of rainfall and cloud cover ratio directly affected the atmospheric transmissivity of direct and diffuse components in the region.

Color change and quality response of ‘lane late’ orange submitted to degreening process

This study aimed at evaluating the effects of ethylene on peel color and compositional changes in ‘Lane late’ orange stored under refrigerated and ambient conditions. Physiologically mature, but green-peeled, oranges were exposed to ethylene gas under room temperature and high relative humidity for 24 hours. Storage chamber was ventilated with fresh air after 12 hours to mitigate consequences derived from fruit respiration. Both nondestructive analysis, such as peel color (hue angle, chromaticity, and brightness) and weight loss, and destructive ones (soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids to acidity ratio, and puncture force) were performed upon harvest, after degreening, and every three days during eighteen days in storage. Experiment was carried out using an entirely randomized design with thirty replications for nondestructive and four replications for destructive analyses, in a split plot scheme. Exposure to ethylene ensured a golden yellow peel for both fruit stored under ambient and refrigerated conditions. High relative humidity, associated with low temperature prevented fruit from losing moisture. Fruit exposure to ethylene did not affect weight loss, soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids, acidity ratio, or puncture force.

Variations in weed population densities, rate of change and community diversity in RR-soybeans and RR-maize strip crops under two herbicide strategies

Concerns about the sustainability of large-scale, direct-drilled RR-soybeans (Glycine max), and RR-maize (Zea mays) under monoculture in central Argentina are growing steadily. An experiment was conducted during three consecutive years to determine the effects of crops and systems (monocultures and strips) and herbicide strategy on weed density, population rate of change (l), b community diversity (H´), crop yields and Land Equivalent Ratio (LER). Not only crops but also crop systems differentially influenced weed densities along their growth and development. For crop harvests, weed densities increased in both maize crop systems as compared to in the one for soybeans, but the lowest increase occurred in soybean strips. Differences were leveled by both herbicide strategies, which achieved 73% efficacy during the critical periods in both crops. l of annual monocotyledonous increased, thus shifting the weed community composition. Species richness and H´ were not affected by crop systems, but both herbicide strategies, particularly POST, either in soybeans in monoculture or in maize strips, significantly enhanced H´. Crop yields significantly increased in the maize-strip system with POST (Year 1) or PRE (Years 2 and 3) strategies, thus increasing LER above 1. Herbicide Environmental Load treatments fall within very low or low field use rating.

Global booms and busts: how is Brazil's middle class faring?

Brazil's Post War economic history has been marked by inflationary booms and busts, which kept large parts of the population poor, as income distribution remained highly skewed, and most governments failed to put enough efforts and resources into education and health. That seems to have changed recently, as an increasing number of studies have shown considerable advances in the incomes of the lower and the middle classes. This essay examines those findings and puts them into a historical perspective, discussing earlier attempts and hopes of Brazilian policy makers to advance the welfare of the population. It concludes that while the last fifteen years have been remarkable for the country to achieve macroeconomic stability and while the increasing efforts of supporting the poor seemed to have been moving income distribution slowly towards a more equal level, there is still a long way to go. The 2008 world financial crisis also hit Brazil hard, but the recovery has been smoother and faster than in any OECD country. The impact of the current crisis may provide a good test as to the robustness of the previous trends to further the wellbeing of the poor and the middle class

Efectos del herbicida Paraquat sobre el zooplancton

The effects of 0.1; 0.2; 0.4 and 0.8 mlPQ/L were analized on a zooplankton community, to determine the most sensitive species and to analize the occurence of physical abnormalities. A total of 40 taxa were determined. Paraquat affected significantly the zooplankton density but not the species richness. A progressive state of deformation of these organisms was also observed. Paraquat showed to be highly toxic for the zooplankton, so this herbicide should be strictly regulated in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.