39 resultados para Geospatio-temporal Conceptual Models

em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP


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Geobiota are defined by taxic assemblages (i.e., biota) and their defining abiotic breaks, which are mapped in cross-section to reveal past and future biotic boundaries. We term this conceptual approach Temporal Geobiotic Mapping (TGM) and offer it as a conceptual approach for biogeography. TGM is based on geological cross-sectioning, which creates maps based on the distribution of biota and known abiotic factors that drive their distribution, such as climate, topography, soil chemistry and underlying geology. However, the availability of abiotic data is limited for many areas. Unlike other approaches, TGM can be used when there is minimal data available. In order to demonstrate TGM, we use the well-known area in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales (NSW), south-eastern Australia and show how surface processes such as weathering and erosion affect the future distribution of a Moist Basalt Forest taxic assemblage. Biotic areas are best represented visually as maps, which can show transgressions and regressions of biota and abiota over time. Using such maps, a biogeographer can directly compare animal and plant distributions with features in the abiotic environment and may identify significant geographical barriers or pathways that explain biotic distributions.

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INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

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Brazilian studies involving entomological succession patterns in carcasses have been used to describe the necrophagous entomofauna of a determined municipality or region with forensic objectives. Following the same objectives, an ecological study with 10 calyptrate dipterans was carried out during the winter of 2007 and the summer of 2008 in the metropolitan region of the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The aim of this study was to describe several aspects of the phenology of these species in three neighbouring areas. Carcasses of three domestic pigs (Sus scrofa L.) were used in each season as models for forensic and legal medicine investigations in the region. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall were measured daily and their relations with population abundance of the colonising species and the decomposition stages were analysed. Ten fly species were recorded to be colonising the carcasses, five of which belonged to the Calliphoridae family, three to the Muscidae, one to the Fanniidae and one to the Sarcophagidae family. Data show preferences of these species for climatic season and decomposition stage, as well as for the studied area and suggest that short distances can significantly influence the abundance of some species.

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The aims of this study were to characterise the ground-level larval habitats of the mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus, to determine the relationships between habitat characteristics and larval abundance and to examine seasonal larval-stage variations in Córdoba city. Every two weeks for two years, 15 larval habitats (natural and artificial water bodies, including shallow wells, drains, retention ponds, canals and ditches) were visited and sampled for larval mosquitoes. Data regarding the water depth, temperature and pH, permanence, the presence of aquatic vegetation and the density of collected mosquito larvae were recorded. Data on the average air temperatures and accumulated precipitation during the 15 days prior to each sampling date were also obtained. Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae were collected throughout the study period and were generally most abundant in the summer season. Generalised linear mixed models indicated the average air temperature and presence of dicotyledonous aquatic vegetation as variables that served as important predictors of larval densities. Additionally, permanent breeding sites supported high larval densities. In Córdoba city and possibly in other highly populated cities at the same latitude with the same environmental conditions, control programs should focus on permanent larval habitats with aquatic vegetation during the early spring, when the Cx. quinquefasciatus population begins to increase.

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Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission has been detected in America in 2013 and recently reached south up to Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay, bordering countries of Argentina. The presence of the mosquito Aedes aegyptiin half of the country together with the regional context drove us to make a rapid assessment of transmission risk. Temperature thresholds for vector breeding and for virus transmission, together with adult activity from the literature, were mapped on a monthly basis to estimate risk. Transmission of chikungunya byAe. aegyptiin the world was seen at monthly mean temperatures from 21-34ºC, with the majority occurring between 26-28ºC. In Argentina temperatures above 21ºC are observed since September in the northeast, expanding south until January and retreating back to the northeast in April. The maximum area under risk encompasses more than half the country and around 32 million inhabitants. Vector adult activity was registered where monthly means temperatures exceeded 13ºC, in the northeast all over the year and in the northern half from September-May. The models herein proposed show that conditions for transmission are already present. Considering the regional context and the historic inability to control dengue in the region, chikungunya fever illness seems unavoidable.

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The organophosphate temephos has been the main insecticide used against larvae of the dengue and yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) in Brazil since the mid-1980s. Reports of resistance date back to 1995; however, no systematic reports of widespread temephos resistance have occurred to date. As resistance investigation is paramount for strategic decision-making by health officials, our objective here was to investigate the spatial and temporal spread of temephos resistance in Ae. aegypti in Brazil for the last 12 years using discriminating temephos concentrations and the bioassay protocols of the World Health Organization. The mortality results obtained were subjected to spatial analysis for distance interpolation using semi-variance models to generate maps that depict the spread of temephos resistance in Brazil since 1999. The problem has been expanding. Since 2002-2003, approximately half the country has exhibited mosquito populations resistant to temephos. The frequency of temephos resistance and, likely, control failures, which start when the insecticide mortality level drops below 80%, has increased even further since 2004. Few parts of Brazil are able to achieve the target 80% efficacy threshold by 2010/2011, resulting in a significant risk of control failure by temephos in most of the country. The widespread resistance to temephos in Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations greatly compromise effective mosquito control efforts using this insecticide and indicates the urgent need to identify alternative insecticides aided by the preventive elimination of potential mosquito breeding sites.

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The study of organisms and their resources is critical to further understanding population dynamics in space and time. Although drosophilids have been widely used as biological models, their relationship with breeding and feeding sites has received little attention. Here, we investigate drosophilids breeding in fruits in the Brazilian Savanna, in two contrasting vegetation types, throughout 16 months. Specifically, larval assemblages were compared between savannas and forests, as well as between rainy and dry seasons. The relationships between resource availability and drosophilid abundance and richness were also tested. The community (4,022 drosophilids of 23 species and 2,496 fruits of 57 plant taxa) varied widely in space and time. Drosophilid assemblages experienced a strong bottleneck during the dry season, decreasing to only 0.5% of the abundance of the rainy season. Additionally, savannas displayed lower richness and higher abundance than the forests, and were dominated by exotic species. Both differences in larval assemblages throughout the year and between savannas and gallery forests are consistent with those previously seen in adults. Although the causes of this dynamic are clearly multifactorial, resource availability (richness and abundance of rotten fruits) was a good predictor of the fly assemblage structure.

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Recent years have witnessed the increasing interest in studies focused on information literacy, which is reflected mainly in the number of publications on the subject and goes beyond the fields of Librarianship and Information Science. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to offer an outlook, historical and conceptual, of international researches on information literacy, trying to show some of the different ramifications which the discussion on the subject has exhibited in past few years in countries where its process of legitimation is already well established, in order to illuminate possible areas of research and action for the librarian professional. This research indicates that if the initial studies on this topic tended to be devoted to conceptualize it, discussing its relevance and determine the skills and knowledge related to information literacy, in the last decade can be noticed a proliferation of researches aimed at describing initiatives or proposing models in areas beyond the usual field such as Medical Sciences, Law, Politics or Computers, among others. The first results of this research refer to a philosophical and educational perspective of information literacy, which suggests the need for deeper understanding and characterization of information literacy in four dimensions: technical, aesthetic, ethical and political, serving both to competence as to information.

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This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

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Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

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Clustering soil and crop data can be used as a basis for the definition of management zones because the data are grouped into clusters based on the similar interaction of these variables. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify management zones using fuzzy c-means clustering analysis based on the spatial and temporal variability of soil attributes and corn yield. The study site (18 by 250-m in size) was located in Jaboticabal, São Paulo/Brazil. Corn yield was measured in one hundred 4.5 by 10-m cells along four parallel transects (25 observations per transect) over five growing seasons between 2001 and 2010. Soil chemical and physical attributes were measured. SAS procedure MIXED was used to identify which variable(s) most influenced the spatial variability of corn yield over the five study years. Basis saturation (BS) was the variable that better related to corn yield, thus, semivariograms models were fitted for BS and corn yield and then, data values were krigged. Management Zone Analyst software was used to carry out the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm. The optimum number of management zones can change over time, as well as the degree of agreement between the BS and corn yield management zone maps. Thus, it is very important take into account the temporal variability of crop yield and soil attributes to delineate management zones accurately.

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The diversity of algal banks composed of species out the genera Gracilaria Greville and Hypnea J.V. Lamouroux have been impacted by commercial exploitation and coastal eutrophication. The present study sought to construct dynamic models based on algal physiology to simulate seasonal variations in the biomasses of Gracilaria and Hypnea an intertidal reef at Piedade Beach in Jaboatão dos Guararapes, Pernambuco State, Brazil. Five 20 × 20 cm plots in a reef pool on a midlittoral reef platform were randomly sampled during April, June, August, October, and December/2009 and in January and March/2010. Water temperature, pH, irradiance, oxygen and salinity levels as well as the concentrations of ammonia, nitrate and phosphate were measured at the sampling site. Forcing functions were employed in the model to represent abiotic factors, and algal decay was simulated with a dispersal function. Algal growth was modeled using a logistic function and was found to be sensitive to temperature and salinity. Maximum absorption rates of ammonia and phosphate were higher in Hypnea than in Gracilaria, indicating that the former takes up nutrients more efficiently at higher concentrations. Gracilaria biomass peaked at approximately 120 g (dry weight m-2) in March/2010 and was significantly lower in August/2009; Hypnea biomasses, on the other hand, did not show any significant variations among the different months, indicating that resource competition may influence the productivity of these algae.

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A displasia fibrosa do osso temporal é uma doença de etiologia ainda controversa, manifestando-se principalmente por estenose progressiva do conduto auditivo externo e pela perda condutiva da audição. Outras manifestações incluem abaulamento na região temporal ou retroauricular, otorréia, otalgia e disacusia sensório-neural. A incidência é maior no sexo masculino e acomete principalmente a raça branca. O exame radiológico característico demonstra um aspecto de "vidro-fosco" homogêneo envolvido por uma concha de tecido cortical denso, embora existam outros padrões radiológicos desta enfermidade. O exame microscópico demonstra um trabeculado ósseo semelhante aos caracteres chineses. Este estudo relata dois casos de displasia fibrosa do osso temporal que se destacam, pois ultrapassaram o osso temporal, acometendo a região zigomática, sendo que no segundo caso houve também comprometimento do osso esfenóide e o pterigóide. Os pacientes foram submetidos à mastoidectomia radical modificada e tiveram boa evolução.

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Displasia fibrosa é uma doença caracterizada por progressiva substituição dos elementos normais do osso por tecido fibroso. É uma patologia benigna incomum de etiologia desconhecida. Existem duas categorias primárias da doença: displasia fibrosa monostótica que envolve somente um osso e displasia fibrosa poliostótica acometendo múltiplos ossos. Embora o esqueleto crânio-facial seja sede freqüente da doença, o osso temporal raramente está envolvido. O envolvimento do osso temporal tem como sintoma mais comum a surdez. O diagnóstico é baseado em imagens radiológicas. Quando a displasia fibrosa é acompanhada por sintomas clínicos significantes, o tratamento cirúrgico é recomendado. O acompanhamento clínico do paciente é fundamental para o diagnóstico precoce de recidivas. Neste artigo relatamos um caso de displasia fibrosa do osso temporal e revisão da patologia na literatura.

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As osteodistrofias do osso temporal podem se manifestar de diversas maneiras, como envolvimento restrito ao osso temporal ou com envolvimento de outros ossos do crânio ou ainda fazerem parte de uma manifestação sistêmica. Consideramos, em nosso trabalho, duas entidades como osteodistofias raras, a osteopetrose e a doença de Camurati-Engelmann, esta última de incidência extremamente rara, com poucos relatos na literatura. Apresentamos dois casos de osteopetrose em sua forma benigna (doença de Albers-Schöenberg), um paciente de 11 anos e outro de 48 anos, ambos do sexo masculino, e um paciente de 28 anos do sexo feminino com a doença de Camurati-Engelmann (displasia diafisária hereditária progressiva), doenças hereditárias autossômicas que apresentam sintomas diversos. A paralisia facial periférica se manifestou em dois dos nossos pacientes. Discutimos alguns aspectos relacionados às manifestações clínicas destas doenças, achados radiológicos, assim como o diagnóstico diferencial e a conduta terapêutica diante de complicações das doenças.