THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Chronic glomerulonephritis associated with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis mansoni

In a series of 36 cases of renal disease associated with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis the following morphologic types of glomerulonephritis were found: mesangio-capillary (33.2%), mesangial proliferative (25.0%), focal glomerular sclerosis (16.7%) and sclerosing glomerulonephritis (8.3%). No significant statistical differences were found when these results were compared with those from 36 cases of glomerulonephritis not associated with hepatosplenic disease. On the other hand, endocapillary glomerulonephritis was found to be predominant in the latter group of cases. These results did not substantiate the assumption that mesangio-capillary glomerulonephritis is specifically related to hepatosplenic schistosomiais. However, if the types of glomerulonephritis that predominantly involve the me-sangium are considered together, they are significantly associated with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis. Mesangial involvement is known to occur in other parasitic diseases and that may be related to a common immunopathogenesis.

Candidin: comparison of two antigens for cutaneous delayed hypersensitivity testing

A candidin, which is a suspension of killed yeast cells, is commonly used for intradermal tests of delayed hypersensitivity, to evaluate the immunological cellular competence of the patient, when the test is applied along with other similar tests. When working with a cellular antigen, the histopathology of positive skin tests reveals a cellular infiltrate which not only presents a characteristic hypersensitivity reaction but also a neutrophilic abscess in the central part. This research presents the results of a comparison between the yeast cell suspension and the polysaccharide antigens, both obtained from the same strains of Candida albicans. The results obtained by skin tests in one hundred individuals were 61.0% with the polysaccharide antigen and 69.0% with the yeast cell suspension antigen. Concordant results concerning the two antigens were observed in 82.0% of the individuals. The discussion section presents an assumption to explain the differences of positivity obtained with the two antigens. We conclude that the polysaccharide antigen can be utilized in the intradermal test of delayed hypersensitivity to Candida albicans.

Field evaluation of the whole blood immunochromatographic test for rapid bancroftian filariasis diagnosis in the northeast of Brazil

This study evaluated the whole blood immunochromatographic card test (ICT card test) in a survey performed in Northeastern Brazil. 625 people were examined by the thick blood film (TBF) and ICT card test. Residents of a non-endemic area were also tested by the whole blood card test and Og4C3. The sensitivity of the ICT card test was 94.7% overall, but lower in females than males, based on the reasonable assumption that TBF is 100% specific. However, since TBF and other methods have unknown sensitivity, the true specificity of the card test is unknown. Nevertheless, it is possible to estimate upper and lower limits for the specificity, and relate it to the prevalence of the disease. In the endemic area, the possible range of the specificity was from 72.4% to 100%. 29.6% of the card tests performed in the non-endemic area exhibited faint lines that were interpreted as positives. Characteristics of the method including high sensitivity, promptness and simplicity justify its use for screening of filariasis. However, detailed information about the correct interpretation in case of extremely faint lines is essential. Further studies designed to consider problems arising from imperfect standards are necessary, as is a sounder diagnostic definition for the card test.

Comparative biology of the two sister species of Triatominae (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

INTRODUCTION: Triatoma pseudomaculata and T. wygodzinskyi (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) are two Brazilian vectors of Chagas disease. The first is an arboricolous species in sylvatic environment and considered a vector of T. cruzi in peridomestic structures; the second, a rupicolous species in the wild environment of no epidemiological importance. In order to test the assumption that sister species share biological traits, comparative studies of their development cycle and blood ingestion were conducted. METHODS: Eggs laid by five field females of each species were randomly selected. The nymphs were observed daily and fed on mice weekly. The time required to pass through the different stages to adulthood was recorded in days. The triatomines were weighed individually before and after feeding. The mortality rate according to each nymphal stage was calculated. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the results shows that they display only minor biological differences even though they exhibit a distinct ecology. This suggests that the biological traits are important criteria to determine the relationship between species.

Environmental determinants for natural regeneration of gallery forest at the Cerrado/Amazonia boundaries in Brazil

Natural regeneration and structure and their relationship to environmental variables were studied in three sections of a gallery forest, in Eastern Mato Grosso, Brazil (14º43′S and 52º21′W). The assumption was that natural regeneration is constrained by environmental determinants at all stages of development of the tree community. The objective was to analyse the forest structure and to verify the relationship between species distribution and abundance at different stages of regeneration and environmental variables. In each section, 47 contiguous (10x10m) permanent plots were established to sample trees (gbh≥15cm), following a systematic design. Seedlings (0.01 to 1m height), saplings (1.01 to 2m) and poles (from 2.01m height to gbh<15cm) were sampled in sub-plots of 1x1m, 2x2m and 5x5m, respectively. In each plot, soil properties, gaps projection, bamboos, rocky cover, declivity and depth of ground watertable were determined. The relationships between the environmental variables with trees and seedling communities were assessed by canonical correspondence analysis. In spite of the sections being near to each other, they presented large differences in floristics, structure and site conditions. The forest soil presented a low cation exchange capacity and a high level of Al saturation. The occurrence of bamboos and gaps and the depth of ground watertable limited the occurrence of poles and trees. The high degree of structural heterogeneity for each regeneration category was related primarily to a humidity gradient; but soil fertility (Ca+Mg) was also a determinant of seedling and sapling communities.

Hereditariedade da homeose

A preliminary account on the normal development of the imaginai discs in holometabolic Insects is made to serve as an introduction to the study of the hereditary homoeosis. Several facts and experimental data furnished specially by the students of Drosophila are brought here in searching for a more adequate explanation of this highly interesting phenomenon. The results obtained from the investigations of different homoeotic mutants are analysed in order to test Goldschmidt's theory of homoeosis. Critical examination of the basis on which this theory was elaborated are equally made. As a result from an extensive theoretical consideration of the matter and a long discussion of the most recent papers on this subject the present writer concludes that the Goldschmidt explanation of the homoeotic phenomena based on the action of diffusing substances produced by the genes, the "evocators", and on the alteration of the normal speed of maturation of the imaginai discs equally due to the activity of the genes, could not be proved and therefore should be abandoned. In the same situation is any other explanation like that of Waddington or Villee considered as fundamentally identical to that of Goldschmidt. In order to clear the problem of homoeosis in terms which seem to put the phenomenon in complete agreement with the known facts the present writer elaborated a theory first published a few years ago (1941) based entirely on the assumption that the imaginai discs are specifically determined by some kind of substances, probably of chemical nature, contained in the cytoplam of the cells entering in the consti- tution of each individual disc. These substances already present in the blastem of the egg in which they are distributed in a definite order, pass to different cells at the time the blastem is transformed into blastoderm. These substances according to their organogenic potentiality may be called antenal-substance, legsubstance, wing-substance, eye-substance, etc. The hipoderm of the embryo resulting from the multiplication of the blastoderm cells would be constituted by a series of cellular areas differing from each other in their particular organoformative capacity. Thus the hypoderm giving rise to the imaginai discs, it follows that each disc must have the same organogenic power of the hypodermal area it came from. Therefore the discs i*re determinated since their origin by substances enclosed in the cytoplasm of their cells and consequently can no longer alter their potentiality. When an antennal disc develops into a leg one can conclude that this disc in spite of its position in the body of the larva is not, properly speaking, an antennal disc but a true leg disc whose cells instead of having in their cytoplasm the antennal substance derived from the egg blastem have in its place the leg-substance. Now, if a disc produces a tarsus or an antenna or even a compound appendage partly tarsus-like, partly antenna-like, it follows tha,t both tarsal and antennal substances are present in it. The ultimate aspect of the compound structure depends upon the reaction of each kind of substance to the different causes influencing development. For instance, temperature may orient the direction of development either lowards arista or tarsus, stimulating, or opposing to the one or the other of these substances. Confering to the genes the faculty of altering the constitution of the substances containing in the cytoplasm forming the egg blastem or causing transposition of these substances from one area to another or promoting the substitution of a given substance by a different one, the hereditary homoeocis may be easily explained. However, in the opinion of the present writer cytoplasm takes the initiative in all developmental process, provoking the chromosomes to react specifically and proportionally. Accordingly, the mutations causing homoeotic phenomena may arise independently at different rime in the cytoplasm and in the chromosomes. To the part taken by the chromosomes in the manifestation of the homoeotic characters is due the mendalian ratio observed in homoeotic X normal crosses. Expression, in itself, is mainly due to the proportion of the different substances in the cells of the affected discs. Homoeotic phenomena not presenting mendelian ratio may appear as consequence of cytoplasmic mutation not accompanied by chromosomal mutation. The great variability in the morphology of the homoeotic characteres, some individual being changed towards an extreme expression of the mutant phenotype while others in spite of their homozigous constitution cannot be distinguished from the normal ones, strongly supports the interpretation based on the relative proportion of the determining substances in the discs. To the same interpretation point also asymetry and other particularities observed in the exteriorization of the phenomenon. In conformity with this new conception homoeosis should not prove homology of Insect appendages (Villee 1942) since a more replacement of substances may cause legs to develop in substitution of the wings, as it was already observed (requiring confirmation in the opinion of Bateson 1894, p. 184) and no one would conclude for the homology of these organs in the usual meaning of the term.

Studies in search of a suitable experimental insect model for xenodiagnosis of hosts with Chagas' disease: 2 - Attempts to upgrade the reliability and the efficacy of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas' disease

In order to upgrade the reliability of xenodiagnosis, attention has been directed towards population dynamics of the parasite, with particular interest for the following factors: 1. Parasite density which by itself is not a research objective, but by giving an accurate portrayal of parasite development and multiplication, has been incorporated in screening of bugs for xenodiagnosis. 2. On the assumption that food availability might increase parasite density, bugs from xenodiagnosis have been refed at biweekly intervals on chicken blood. 3. Infectivity rates and positives harbouring large parasite yields were based on gut infections, in which the parasite population comprised of all developmental forms was more abundant and easier to detect than in fecal infections, thus minimizing the probability of recording false negatives. 4. Since parasite density, low in the first 15 days of infection, increases rapidly in the following 30 days, the interval of 45 days has been adopted for routine examination of bugs from xenodiagnosis. By following the enumerated measures, all aiming to reduce false negative cases, we are getting closer to a reliable xenodiagnostic procedure. Upgrading the efficacy of xenodiagnosis is also dependent on the xenodiagnostic agent. Of 9 investigated vector species, Panstrongylus megistus deserves top priority as a xenodiagnostic agent. Its extraordinary capability to support fast development and vigorous multiplication of the few parasites, ingested from the host with chronic Chagas' disease, has been revealed by the strikingly close infectivity rates of 91.2% vs. 96.4% among bugs engorged from the same host in the chronic and acute phase of the disease respectively (Table V), the latter comporting an estimated number of 12.3 x 10[raised to the power of 3] parasites in the circulation at the time of xenodiagnosis, as reported previously by the authors (1982).

The stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity on the schistosomiasis transmission modeling - the sensitivity Analysis

A mathematical model is proposed to analyze the effects of acquired immunity on the transmission of schistosomiasis in the human host. From this model the prevalence curve dependent on four parameters can be obtained. These parameters were estimated fitting the data by the maximum likelihood method. The model showed a good retrieving capacity of real data from two endemic areas of schistosomiasis: Touros, Brazil (Schistosoma mansoni) and Misungwi, Tanzania (S. haematobium). Also, the average worm burden per person and the dispersion of parasite per person in the community can be obtained from the model. In this paper, the stabilizing effects of the acquired immunity assumption in the model are assessed in terms of the epidemiological variables as follows. Regarded to the prevalence curve, we calculate the confidence interval, and related to the average worm burden and the worm dispersion in the community, the sensitivity analysis (the range of the variation) of both variables with respect to their parameters is performed.

Coadaptation and malaria control

Malaria emerges from a disequilibrium of the system 'human-plasmodium-mosquito' (HPM). If the equilibrium is maintained, malaria does not ensue and the result is asymptomatic plasmodium infection. The relationships among the components of the system involve coadaptive linkages that lead to equilibrium. A vast body of evidence supports this assumption, including the strategies involved in the relationships between plasmodium and human and mosquito immune systems, and the emergence of resistance of plasmodia to antimalarial drugs and of mosquitoes to insecticides. Coadaptive strategies for malaria control are based on the following principles: (1) the system HPM is composed of three highly complex and dynamic components, whose interplay involves coadaptive linkages that tend to maintain the equilibrium of the system; (2) human and mosquito immune systems play a central role in the coadaptive interplay with plasmodium, and hence, in the mainten-ance of the system's equilibrium; the under- or overfunction of human immune system may result in malaria and influence its severity; (3) coadaptation depends on genetic and epigenetic phenomena occurring at the interfaces of the components of the system, and may involve exchange of infectrons (genes or gene fragments) between the partners; (4) plasmodia and mosquitoes have been submitted to selective pressures, leading to adaptation, for an extremely long while and are, therefore, endowed with the capacity to circumvent both natural (immunity) and artificial (drugs, insecticides, vaccines) measures aiming at destroying them; (5) since malaria represents disequilibrium of the system HPM, its control should aim at maintaining or restoring this equilibrium; (6) the disequilibrium of integrated systems involves the disequilibrium of their components, therefore the maintenance or restoration of the system's equilibrium depend on the adoption of integrated and coordinated measures acting on all components, that means, panadaptive strategies. Coadaptive strategies for malaria control should consider that: (1) host immune response has to be induced, since without it, no coadaptation is attained; (2) the immune response has to be sustained and efficient enough to avoid plasmodium overgrowth; (3) the immune response should not destroy all parasites; (4) the immune response has to be well controlled in order to not harm the host. These conditions are mostly influenced by antimalarial drugs, and should also be taken into account for the development of coadaptive malaria vaccines.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

The evolution of universities' relations with the business sector in Brazil: What national publications between 1980 and 2012 reveal

ABSTRACT This paper addresses the changes in university-industry relations in Brazil regarding innovation activities. It is based on a survey of articles published in major national journals or presented at the most relevant Brazilian and regional conferences, between 1980 and 2012. The year 1980 was chosen due to the creation of the Technological Innovation Offices (NITs), which was the first government initiative to encourage knowledge transfer from universities to companies; the second was the Innovation Act of 2004. Our assumption was that after the Act the number of academic papers on this subject would increase, bringing new ideas and propositions of models to enhance this relationship. The methodology employed a qualitative, exploratory approach, using bibliographical research and a bibliometric analysis of 247 papers. Literature review of international studies shows the discussion of problems and suggestions for improvements, while in Brazil there is still a debate on whether this collaboration should occur, and if this is a legitimate role for the university. Despite the numerical growth, the content analysis showed few papers on new configurations and procedures for partnership management. We conclude that university-industry relations are not a regular and totally accepted process in Brazilian public universities, which reflect an ideological bias against cooperation with firms.

Heterozigosidade e assimetria do número de hâmulos em operárias adultas de Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera, Apidae)

Heterozygosity and hammuli number asymmetry in adult workers of Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera, Apidae). Relationship between individual heterozygosity at particular loci (Mdh-1, Hk-1 ou Pgm-1) or average heterozygosity of the colony and asymmetry of the hammuli number of right and left wings was verified on adult workers of five Africanized and five European colonies of Apis mellifera. Our results demonstrated the importance of statistical tests to verify the type of asymmetry of the character studied and they did not validate the assumption that uni or multiloci heterozygosity has a positive effect on developmental stability.