CLASSIFICATION OF FOREST ROADS AND DETERMINATION OF ROUTE USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

ABSTRACT Geographic Information System (GIS) is an indispensable software tool in forest planning. In forestry transportation, GIS can manage the data on the road network and solve some problems in transportation, such as route planning. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the pattern of the road network and define transport routes using GIS technology. The present research was conducted in a forestry company in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The criteria used to classify the pattern of forest roads were horizontal and vertical geometry, and pavement type. In order to determine transport routes, a data Analysis Model Network was created in ArcGIS using an Extension Network Analyst, allowing finding a route shorter in distance and faster. The results showed a predominance of horizontal geometry classes average (3) and bad (4), indicating presence of winding roads. In the case of vertical geometry criterion, the class of highly mountainous relief (4) possessed the greatest extent of roads. Regarding the type of pavement, the occurrence of secondary coating was higher (75%), followed by primary coating (20%) and asphalt pavement (5%). The best route was the one that allowed the transport vehicle travel in a higher specific speed as a function of road pattern found in the study.

New tools for epidemiology: a space odyssey

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) facilitate access to epidemiological data through visualization and may be consulted for the development of mathematical models and analysis by spatial statistics. Variables such as land-cover, land-use, elevations, surface temperatures, rainfall etc. emanating from earth-observing satellites, complement GIS as this information allows the analysis of disease distribution based on environmental characteristics. The strength of this approach issues from the specific environmental requirements of those causative infectious agents, which depend on intermediate hosts for their transmission. The distribution of these diseases is restricted, both by the environmental requirements of their intermediate hosts/vectors and by the ambient temperature inside these hosts, which effectively govern the speed of maturation of the parasite. This paper discusses the current capabilities with regard to satellite data collection in terms of resolution (spatial, temporal and spectral) of the sensor instruments on board drawing attention to the utility of computer-based models of the Earth for epidemiological research. Virtual globes, available from Google and other commercial firms, are superior to conventional maps as they do not only show geographical and man-made features, but also allow instant import of data-sets of specific interest, e.g. environmental parameters, demographic information etc., from the Internet.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

PERFORMANCE OF CONVENTIONAL PCRs BASED ON PRIMERS DIRECTED TO NUCLEAR AND MITOCHONDRIAL GENES FOR THE DETECTION AND IDENTIFICATION OF Leishmania spp.

In visceral leishmaniasis, the detection of the agent is of paramount importance to identify reservoirs of infection. Here, we evaluated the diagnostic attributes of PCRs based on primers directed to cytochrome-B (cytB), cytochrome-oxidase-subunit II (coxII), cytochrome-C (cytC), and the minicircle-kDNA. Although PCRs directed to cytB, coxII, cytC were able to detect different species of Leishmania, and the nucleotide sequence of their amplicons allowed the unequivocal differentiation of species, the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of these PCRs were much lower than the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of the kDNA-PCR. Among the 73 seropositive animals, the asymptomatic dogs had spleen and bone marrow samples collected and tested; only two animals were positive by PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC, whereas 18 were positive by the kDNA-PCR. Considering the kDNA-PCR results, six dogs had positive spleen and bone marrow samples, eight dogs had positive bone marrow results but negative results in spleen samples and, in four dogs, the reverse situation occurred. We concluded that PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC can be useful tools to identify Leishmania species when used in combination with automated sequencing. The discordance between the results of the kDNA-PCR in bone marrow and spleen samples may indicate that conventional PCR lacks sensitivity for the detection of infected dogs. Thus, primers based on the kDNA should be preferred for the screening of infected dogs.

A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

Usefulness of PCR-based assays to assess drug efficacy in Chagas disease chemotherapy: value and limitations

One major goal of research on Chagas disease is the development of effective chemotherapy to eliminate the infection from individuals who have not yet developed cardiac and/or digestive disease manifestations. Cure evaluation is the more complex aspect of its treatment, often leading to diverse and controversial results. The absence of reliable methods or a diagnostic gold standard to assess etiologic treatment efficacy still constitutes a major challenge. In an effort to develop more sensitive tools, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based assays were introduced to detect low amounts of Trypanosoma cruzi DNA in blood samples from chagasic patients, thus improving the diagnosis and follow-up evaluation after chemotherapy. In this article, I review the main problems concerning drug efficacy and criteria used for cure estimation in treated chagasic patients, and the work conducted by different groups on developing PCR methodologies to monitor treatment outcome of congenital infections as well as recent and late chronic T. cruzi infections.

A geoprocessing approach for studying and controlling schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Geographical information systems (GIS) are tools that have been recently tested for improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of disease. The objective of this paper was to further develop the GIS technology to model and control schistosomiasis using environmental, social, biological and remote-sensing variables. A final regression model (R² = 0.39) was established, after a variable selection phase, with a set of spatial variables including the presence or absence of Biomphalaria glabrata, winter enhanced vegetation index, summer minimum temperature and percentage of houses with water coming from a spring or well. A regional model was also developed by splitting the state of Minas Gerais (MG) into four regions and establishing a linear regression model for each of the four regions: 1 (R² = 0.97), 2 (R² = 0.60), 3 (R² = 0.63) and 4 (R² = 0.76). Based on these models, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for MG. In this paper, geostatistics was also used to make inferences about the presence of Biomphalaria spp. The result was a map of species and risk areas. The obtained risk map permits the association of uncertainties, which can be used to qualify the inferences and it can be thought of as an auxiliary tool for public health strategies.

The potential for vaccination in leprosy elimination: new tools for targeted interventions

Despite the huge effort and massive advances toward the elimination of leprosy over the last two decades, the disease has proven stubborn; new case detection rates have stabilised over the last few years and leprosy remains endemic in a number of localised regions. The American Leprosy Missions and Infectious Disease Research Institute have undertaken a large research effort aimed at developing new tools and a vaccine to continue the push for leprosy elimination. In this paper, we outline our strategy for the integration of rapid diagnostic tests and lab-based assays to facilitate the detection of early or asymptomatic leprosy cases, as well as the efficient and focused implementation of chemoprophylaxis and immunisation to intervene in leprosy development and transmission.

Outstanding insecurities concerning the use of an Ov16-based ELISA in the Amazonia onchocerciasis focus

In a recent issue of Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, published in Rio de Janeiro in February 2014 (109: 87-92), Adami et al. have published a survey reporting Mansonella parasite prevalence in the Amazon Region. This report makes a useful contribution to the existing knowledge of filarial parasite distribution within the Amazon area, parasite prevalence rates in relation to age and occupation and provides observations on the possible clinical impact of Mansonella ozzardi. Their publication also provides an account of what appears to be a novel ELISA that has recently been used in the Simuliidae and Onchocerciasis Laboratory of the Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We are concerned that the publication of this ELISA may have created an excessively positive impression of the effectiveness of the onchocerciasis recrudescence serological surveillance tools that are presently available for use in the Amazonia onchocerciasis focus. In this letter we have, thus, sought to highlight some of the limitations of this ELISA and suggest how continuing insecurities concerning the detection of antibodies to Onchocerca volvulus within the Amazonia onchocerciasis focus might be minimised.

Metagenomics, paratransgenesis and the Anopheles microbiome: a portrait of the geographical distribution of the anopheline microbiota based on a meta-analysis of reported taxa

Anophelines harbour a diverse microbial consortium that may represent an extended gene pool for the host. The proposed effects of the insect microbiota span physiological, metabolic and immune processes. Here we synthesise how current metagenomic tools combined with classical culture-dependent techniques provide new insights in the elucidation of the role of the Anopheles-associated microbiota. Many proposed malaria control strategies have been based upon the immunomodulating effects that the bacterial components of the microbiota appear to exert and their ability to express anti-Plasmodium peptides. The number of identified bacterial taxa has increased in the current “omics” era and the available data are mostly scattered or in “tables” that are difficult to exploit. Published microbiota reports for multiple anopheline species were compiled in an Excel® spreadsheet. We then filtered the microbiota data using a continent-oriented criterion and generated a visual correlation showing the exclusive and shared bacterial genera among four continents. The data suggested the existence of a core group of bacteria associated in a stable manner with their anopheline hosts. However, the lack of data from Neotropical vectors may reduce the possibility of defining the core microbiota and understanding the mosquito-bacteria interactive consortium.

Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics

In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease: Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.

USE OF SCALED SEMIVARIOGRAMS IN THE PLANNING SAMPLE OF SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES IN SOUTHERN AMAZONAS, BRAZIL

There is a great lack of information from soil surveys in the southern part of the State of Amazonas, Brazil. The use of tools such as geostatistics may improve environmental planning, use and management. In this study, we aimed to use scaled semivariograms in sample design of soil physical properties of some environments in Amazonas. We selected five areas located in the south of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, with varied soil uses, such as forest, archaeological dark earth (ADE), pasture, sugarcane cropping, and agroforestry. Regular mesh grids were set up in these areas with 64 sample points spaced at 10 m from each other. At these points, we determined the particle size composition, soil resistance to penetration, moisture, soil bulk density and particle density, macroporosity, microporosity, total porosity, and aggregate stability in water at a depth of 0.00-0.20 m. Descriptive and geostatistical analyses were performed. The sample density requirements were lower in the pasture area but higher in the forest. We concluded that managed-environments had differences in their soil physical properties compared to the natural forest; notably, the soil in the ADE environment is physically improved in relation to the others. The physical properties evaluated showed a structure of spatial dependence with a slight variability of the forest compared to the others. The use of the range parameter of the semivariogram analysis proved to be effective in determining an ideal sample density.

Multiple Geotechnological Tools Applied to Digital Mapping of Tropical Soils

ABSTRACT In recent years, geotechnologies as remote and proximal sensing and attributes derived from digital terrain elevation models indicated to be very useful for the description of soil variability. However, these information sources are rarely used together. Therefore, a methodology for assessing and specialize soil classes using the information obtained from remote/proximal sensing, GIS and technical knowledge has been applied and evaluated. Two areas of study, in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, totaling approximately 28.000 ha were used for this work. First, in an area (area 1), conventional pedological mapping was done and from the soil classes found patterns were obtained with the following information: a) spectral information (forms of features and absorption intensity of spectral curves with 350 wavelengths -2,500 nm) of soil samples collected at specific points in the area (according to each soil type); b) obtaining equations for determining chemical and physical properties of the soil from the relationship between the results obtained in the laboratory by the conventional method, the levels of chemical and physical attributes with the spectral data; c) supervised classification of Landsat TM 5 images, in order to detect changes in the size of the soil particles (soil texture); d) relationship between classes relief soils and attributes. Subsequently, the obtained patterns were applied in area 2 obtain pedological classification of soils, but in GIS (ArcGIS). Finally, we developed a conventional pedological mapping in area 2 to which was compared with a digital map, ie the one obtained only with pre certain standards. The proposed methodology had a 79 % accuracy in the first categorical level of Soil Classification System, 60 % accuracy in the second category level and became less useful in the categorical level 3 (37 % accuracy).

Aplicação de modelo matemático às propriedades reológicas de géis mistos de agarose e de goma guar

Certain biopolymers are capable of forming physically cross-linked gels in aqueous medium, stabilized by forces such as Coulombic, charge transfer, hydrogen bonding, dipole-dipole, van der Waals, and hydrophobic interactions. The mathematical description of these physical networks are difficult, but should contribute to a better understanding of the gelling process. The Clark and Ross-Murphy model was applied to experimental data for agarose-guar gum mixed systems, in which only agarose is the gelling polysaccharide. A computational routine based on the statistical maximum likehood principle was employed to estimate the f, K and a characteristic parameters. Statistical t-test and F-test were used to analyse the set of parameters.