Can future systemic financial risks be quantified?: ergodic vs nonergodic stochastic processes

Different axioms underlie efficient market theory and Keynes's liquidity preference theory. Efficient market theory assumes the ergodic axiom. Consequently, today's decision makers can calculate with actuarial precision the future value of all possible outcomes resulting from today's decisions. Since in an efficient market world decision makers "know" their intertemporal budget constraints, decision makers never default on a loan, i.e., systemic defaults, insolvencies, and bankruptcies are impossible. Keynes liquidity preference theory rejects the ergodic axiom. The future is ontologically uncertain. Accordingly systemic defaults and insolvencies can occur but can never be predicted in advance.

Towards an uncertain future? The strengthening of Japan's autonomy in Asia-Pacific

Recently, Japan has been increasing tensions with China regarding the Pinnacle Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Due to the Chinese military development, Japan has been working on its political and military strengthening in Asia. This essay presents two possible scenarios for Japan.

Sponsoring, brand value and social media

The increasing involvement of individuals in social media over the past decade has enabled firms to pursue new avenues in communication and sponsoring activities. Besides general research on either social media or sponsoring, questions regarding the consequences of a joint activity (sponsoring activities in social media) remain unexplored. Hence, the present study analyses whether the perceived image of the brand and the celebrity endorser credibility of a top sports team influence the perceived brand value of the sponsoring firm in a social media setting. Moreover, these effects are compared between existing customers and non-customers of the sponsoring firm. Interestingly, perceived celebrity endorser credibility plays no role in forming brand value perceptions in the case of the existing customers. Implications for marketing theory and practice are derived.

RELATION BETWEEN BACKGROUND VARIABLES, VALUES AND CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

ABSTRACT Consumer perception of corporate social responsibility (CSR) can be directly influenced by individual value structures. This research aims to provide new knowledge regarding the relationship between basic human values and the public's perception of CSR. It focuses on the values of higher education students and their views regarding a particular corporate social initiative. The study reveals that social, educational, and economic circumstances influence human values. Those values in turn influence why different students perceive CSR differently. These findings are relevant to companies as they provide a more detailed understanding of why certain consumer groups perceive certain CSR initiatives the way that they do. They also suggest that universities should increase their awareness of the importance of integrating human values and CSR in the curricula of future business managers and social leaders.

Mortality problems in Brazil and in Germany: past-present-future. Learning from each other?

This article was written by a Swiss-German historical demographer after having visited different Brazilian Universities in 1984 as a guest-professor. It aims at promoting a real dialog between developed and developing countries, commencing the discussion with the question: Can we learn from each other? An affirmative answer is given, but not in the superficial manner in which the discussion partners simply want to give each other some "good advice" or in which the one declares his country's own development to be the solely valid standard. Three points are emphasized: 1. Using infant mortality in S. Paulo from 1908 to 1983 as an example, it is shown that Brazil has at its disposal excellent, highly varied research literature that is unjustifiably unknown to us (in Europe) for the most part. Brazil by no means needs our tutoring lessons as regards the causal relationships; rather, we could learn two things from Brazil about this. For one, it becomes clear that our almost exclusively medical-biological view is inappropriate for passing a judgment on the present-day problems in Brazil and that any conclusions so derived are thus only transferable to a limited extent. For another, we need to reinterpret the history of infant mortality in our own countries up to the past few decades in a much more encompassing "Brazilian" sense. 2. A fruitful dialog can only take place if both partners frankly present their problems. For this reason, the article refers with much emprasis to our present problems in dealing with death and dying - problems arising near the end of the demographic and epidemiologic transitions: the superanuation of the population, chronic-incurable illnesses as the main causes of death, the manifold dependencies of more and more elderly and really old people at the end of a long life. Brazil seems to be catching up to us in this and will be confronted with these problems sooner or later. A far-sighted discussion already at this time seems thus to be useful. 3. The article, however, does not want to conclude with the rather depressing state of affairs of problems alternatingly superseding each other. Despite the caution which definitely has a place when prognoses are being made on the basis of extrapolations from historical findings, the foreseeable development especially of the epidemiologic transition in the direction of a rectangular survival curve does nevertheless provide good reason for being rather optimistic towards the future: first in regards to the development in our own countries, but then - assuming that the present similar tendencies of development are stuck to - also in regard to Brazil.

Dengue vaccines: what we know, what has been done, but what does the future hold?

Dengue, a disease caused by any of the four serotypes of dengue viruses, is the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in the world in terms of both morbidity and mortality. The infection by these viruses induces a plethora of clinical manifestations ranging from asymptomatic infections to severe diseases with involvement of several organs. Severe forms of the disease are more frequent in secondary infections by distinct serotypes and, consequently, a dengue vaccine must be tetravalent. Although several approaches have been used on the vaccine development, no vaccine is available against these viruses, especially because of problems on the development of a tetravalent vaccine. Here, we describe briefly the vaccine candidates available and their ability to elicit a protective immune response. We also discuss the problems and possibilities of any of the vaccines in final development stage reaching the market for human use.

The value of the Widal test in the diagnosis of Prolonged Septicemic Salmonellosis

Twenty patients with prolonged septicemic salmonellosis (Group 1) and 20 with schistosomiasis mansoni (Group 2) were selected for this study. In both groups, the Widal test was done using antigens of the sample Ty 901 (S. typhi). The test was also applied in 6 group 1 patients with antigens prepared from salmonellae isolated from these patients (autoantigens). Titres over 1:200 were considered significant. Ten group 1 patients (50%) were positive for antigen "H" and 5 (25%) were positive for antigen "O". Three patients with negative "H" and "O" reactions became positive with high titres when using autoantigens. Two other cases maintained the same positive titres and one case showed a fourfold increase in titres when the test was done 'with antigens of the Salmonella isolated. The Widal test was positive in most patients infected with group D Salmonellae. Considering titres above 1:200, all cases were negative in Group 2. The authors conclude that the Widal test has low positivity in prolonged septicemic salmonellosis. The test may be valuable in the diagnosis of this disease when using S. paratyphi "A" and "B" antigens and a mixture of Salmonella antigens taken from other groups.

Predictive value of serologic tests in the diagnosis and follow-up of patients with paracoccidioidomycosis

A serologic study was undertaken in a group of 43 patients with active paracoccidioidomycosis who were treated in the same form (ketoconazole), for identical periods of time (6 months), and folio wed-up for various periods posttherapy. The tests employed were agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID) and complement fixation (FC). Also studied were 50 sera from patients with proven histoplasmosis and pulmonary aspergilloma, 30 patients with culturaly proven tuberculosis as well as 92 specimens from healthy individuals, residents in the endemic area for paracoccidioidomycosis. A single lot of yeast filtrate antigen was used throughout the study. The value of each test was measured according to GALEN and GAMBINO6. Both tests were highly sensitive, 89 and 93% respectively. Regarding their specificity, the AGID was totally specific while the CF exhibited 96.6% and 97% specificity in front of tuberculosis patients and healthy individuals respectively and 82% in comparison with patients with other mycoses. The concept of predictive value, that is, the certainty one has in accepting a positive test as diagnostic of paracoccidioidomycosis, favored the AGID procedure (100%) over the CF test. The latter could sort out with 93% certainty a patient with paracoccidioidomycosis among a group of healthy individuals and with 97.5% in the case of TB patients; when the group in question was composed by individuals with other deep mycoses, such certainty was lower (81%). The above results indicate that both the AGID and the CF tests furnish results of high confidence; one should not relay, however, in the CF alone as a means to establish the specific diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis.

The value of adenosine deaminase (ADA) determination in the diagnosis of tuberculous ascites

In order to evaluate the role of the determination of adenosine deaminase activity (ADA) in ascitic fluid for the diagnosis of tuberculosis, 44 patients were studied. Based on biochemical, cytological, histopathological and microbiological tests, the patients were divided into 5 groups: G1 - tuberculous ascites (n = 8); G2 - malignant ascites (n = 13); G3 - spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 6); G4 - pancreatic ascites (n = 2); G5 - miscelaneous ascites (n = 15). ADA concentration were significantly higher in G1 (133.50 ± 24.74 U/l) compared to the other groups (G2 = 41.85 ± 52.07 U/l; G3 = 10.63 ± 5.87 U/l; G4 = 18.00 ± 7.07 U/l; G5 = 11.23 ± 7.66 U/l). At a cut-off value of >31 U/l, the sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative preditive values were 100%, 92%, 72% and 100%, respectively. ADA concentrations as high as in tuberculous ascites were only found in two malignant ascites caused by lymphoma. We conclude that ADA determination in ascitic fluid is a useful and reliable screening test for diagnosing tuberculous ascites. Values of ADA higher than 31 U/l indicate more invasive methods to confirm the diagnosis of tuberculosis.