Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

A behavioral intervention in a cohort of Japanese-Brazilians at high cardiometabolic risk

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of a health promotion program on cardiometabolic risk profile in Japanese-Brazilians. METHODS: A total of 466 subjects from a study on diabetes prevalence conducted in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, in 2000 completed a 1-year intervention program (2005-2006) based on healthy diet counseling and physical activity. Changes in blood pressure and metabolic parameters in the 2005-2006 period were compared with annual changes in these same variables in the 2000-2005 period. RESULTS: During the intervention, there were greater annual reductions in mean (SD) waist circumference [-0.5(3.8) vs. 1.2(1.2) cm per year, p<0.001], systolic blood pressure [-4.6(17.9) vs. 1.8(4.3) mmHg per year, p<0.001], 2-hour plasma glucose [-1.2(2.1) vs. -0.2(0.6) mmol/L per year, p<0.001], LDL-cholesterol [-0.3(0.9) vs. -0.1(0.2) mmol/L per year, p<0.001] and Framingham coronary heart disease risk score [-0.25(3.03) vs. 0.11(0.66) per year, p=0.02] but not in triglycerides [0.2(1.6) vs. 0.1(0.42) mmol/L per year, p<0.001], and fasting insulin level [1.2(5.8) vs. -0.7(2.2) IU/mL per year, p<0.001] compared with the pre-intervention period. Significant reductions in the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes were seen during the intervention (from 58.4% to 35.4%, p<0.001; and from 30.1% to 21.7%, p= 0.004, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A one-year community-based health promotion program brings cardiometabolic benefits in a high-risk population of Japanese-Brazilians.

Quantifying the risk of coronary artery disease in a community: The Bambuí Project

OBJECTIVE: To determine the coronary risk profile in adults and elderly in a community. METHODS: The study comprised a sample of adults (30-59 years, n=547) and the entire elderly population (60-74 years, n=1165) residing in Bambuí town, Brazil. The Framingham score based on sex, age, smoking, diabetes mellitus, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and HDL-C was used. The score based on age and sex was defined as "expected" and compared with the mean score obtained by the sum of all risk factors in each age group and sex (score "observed"). RESULTS: The difference between the scores "observed" and "expected" increased with aging in both sexes. Smoking increased the difference from 30 years of age onwards, in both sexes, and hypertension was important in men above the age of 30 years and in women above the age of 50 years. Diabetes and elevated total cholesterol increased the risk of the disease above the age of 50 years in both sexes. A higher level of HDL-C reduced the risk among men above the age of 30 years, with no significant difference among women. Less schooling (< 4 years versus ³ 4 years) was associated with a higher score in adults of both sexes, but not among the elderly. CONCLUSION: Based on these results, in the community studied, the risk of coronary artery disease may be reduced up to 44% in men and 38% in women.

The Relationship between GRACE Score and Epicardial Fat Thickness in non-STEMI Patients

Abstract Background: GRACE risk score (GS) is a scoring system which has a prognostic significance in patients with non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (non-STEMI). Objective: The present study aimed to determine whether end-systolic or end-diastolic epicardial fat thickness (EFT) is more closely associated with high-risk non-STEMI patients according to the GS. Methods: We evaluated 207 patients who had non-STEMI beginning from October 2012 to February 2013, and 162 of them were included in the study (115 males, mean age: 66.6 ± 12.8 years). End-systolic and end-diastolic EFTs were measured with echocardiographic methods. Patients with high in-hospital GS were categorized as the H-GS group (in hospital GS > 140), while other patients were categorized as the low-to-moderate risk group (LM-GS). Results: Systolic and diastolic blood pressures of H-GS patients were lower than those of LM-GS patients, and the average heart rate was higher in this group. End-systolic EFT and end-diastolic EFT were significantly higher in the H-GS group. The echocardiographic assessment of right and left ventricles showed significantly decreased ejection fraction in both ventricles in the H-GS group. The highest correlation was found between GS and end-diastolic EFT (r = 0.438). Conclusion: End-systolic and end-diastolic EFTs were found to be increased in the H-GS group. However, end-diastolic EFT and GS had better correlation than end-systolic EFT and GS.

Comorbidity adjustment index for the international classification of diseases, 10

OBJECTIVE: To develop a Charlson-like comorbidity index based on clinical conditions and weights of the original Charlson comorbidity index. METHODS: Clinical conditions and weights were adapted from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision and applied to a single hospital admission diagnosis. The study included 3,733 patients over 18 years of age who were admitted to a public general hospital in the city of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil, between Jan 2001 and Jan 2003. The index distribution was analyzed by gender, type of admission, blood transfusion, intensive care unit admission, age and length of hospital stay. Two logistic regression models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality including: a) the aforementioned variables and the risk-adjustment index (full model); and b) the risk-adjustment index and patient's age (reduced model). RESULTS: Of all patients analyzed, 22.3% had risk scores >1, and their mortality rate was 4.5% (66.0% of them had scores >1). Except for gender and type of admission, all variables were retained in the logistic regression. The models including the developed risk index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 (full model), and 0.76 (reduced model). Each unit increase in the risk score was associated with nearly 50% increase in the odds of in-hospital death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk index developed was able to effectively discriminate the odds of in-hospital death which can be useful when limited information is available from hospital databases.

Diagnosis of Rejection by Analyzing Ventricular Late Potentials in Heart Transplant Patients

Background: Heart transplant rejection originates slow and fragmented conduction. Signal-averaged ECG (SAECG) is a stratification method in the risk of rejection. Objective: To develop a risk score for rejection, using SAECG variables. Methods: We studied 28 transplant patients. First, we divided the sample into two groups based on the occurrence of acute rejection (5 with rejection and 23 without). In a second phase, we divided the sample considering the existence or not of rejection in at least one biopsy performed on the follow-up period (rejection pm1: 18 with rejection and 10 without). Results: On conventional ECG, the presence of fibrosis was the only criterion associated with acute rejection (OR = 19; 95% CI = 1.65-218.47; p = 0.02). Considering the rejection pm1, an association was found with the SAECG variables, mainly with RMS40 (OR = 0.97; 95% CI = 0.87-0.99; p = 0.03) and LAS40 (OR = 1.06; 95% IC = 1.01-1.11; p = 0.03). We formulated a risk score including those variables, and evaluated its discriminative performance in our sample. The presence of fibrosis with increasing of LAS40 and decreasing of RMS40 showed a good ability to distinguish between patients with and without rejection (AUC = 0.82; p < 0.01), assuming a cutoff point of sensitivity = 83.3% and specificity = 60%. Conclusion: The SAECG distinguished between patients with and without rejection. The usefulness of the proposed risk score must be demonstrated in larger follow-up studies.

Avaliação do risco de quedas em idosos atendidos em Unidade Básica de Saúde

A população mundial vem envelhecendo de forma abrupta, o que representa um grande desafio para os órgãos competentes que, por sua vez, necessitam de novas políticas públicas de saúde, inclusive na prevenção de quedas. Este estudo objetivou avaliar o risco de quedas em idosos. Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico de corte transversal com abordagem quantitativa, realizado em uma unidade de saúde da família. A amostra foi composta por 150 idosos avaliados de janeiro a abril de 2009. Para a coleta de dados, utilizou-se o Fall Risk Score, que foi analisado através do SPSS 17.0. Dos idosos avaliados 58,8% não sofreram quedas, sendo que, dos idosos que caíram (63 idosos), 71,4% sofreram de 1 a 2 quedas, citando como principal causa intrínseca a tontura/vertigem, enquanto que a extrínseca foi pisos escorregadios ou molhados. Conclui-se, portanto, que é de grande relevância avaliar o risco de quedas em idosos, para que se medidas preventivas sejam tomadas, com o objetivo de maximizar a qualidade de vida.

Maternal neurotic symptoms and infants' risk of developing persistent diarrhoea

A previously calculated predictive model for health risk selects infants who suffer 4-5 times more morbidity than their unselected peers. Preliminary results suggested that this risk is related to maternal neurotic symptomatology. To evaluate this hypothesis, 52 consecutive mothers whose infants had a positive predictive score (Group 1) and 52 in whom this was negative (Group 2) were evaluated by means of Goldberg's General Health Questionnaire (GHQ - 30). A total of 41.9% and 20.5% of the mothers in Groups 1 and 2, respectively, scored above 11 points in GHQ-30, established as the cut off point. It is concluded that among poor urban families in Santiago mothers of infants with high risk of persistent diarrhoea have increased frequency of detectable neurotic symptoms. New programs aimed at this type of infant should include psychological support for their mothers.

Prodromal Questionnaire: translation, adaptation to Portuguese and preliminary results in ultra-high risk individuals and first episode psychosis

OBJECTIVE: The Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ) is a 92-item self-report screening tool for individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) to develop psychosis. This study aims to present the translation to Portuguese and preliminary results in UHR and first episode (FE) psychosis in a Portuguese sample. METHODS: The PQ was translated from English to Portuguese by two bilingual researchers from the research program on early psychosis of the Instituto de Psiquiatria HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil (ASAS - "Evaluation and Follow up of Adolescents and Young Adults in São Paulo") and back translated by two other researchers. The study participants (n = 11-) were evaluated through the Portuguese version of the Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ) and SIPS. RESULTS: The individuals at UHR (n = 7) presented a lower score than first episode patients (n = 4). The UHR mean scores and standard deviation on Portuguese version of the PQ were: 13.0 ± 10.0 points on positive symptoms subscale, and FE patients: 33.0 ± 10.0. CONCLUSION: The UHR and FE patients' of this study presented PQ scores similar to the ones found in the literature; what suggests that it is possible to use the PQ in Brazilian help-seeking individuals as a screening tool.

Is psychodynamic psychotherapy an effective intervention for individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis?: a case report

OBJECTIVE: To report a case and to discuss the use of psychodynamic psychotherapy (PD-P) to treat individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis. METHODS: An individual at UHR was followed up for 24 months. The baseline evaluation included a psychiatric interview, the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms (SIPS), the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS), and neuropsychological assessment. He underwent weekly sessions of PD-P for 12 months and was followed up for 12 months after the end of PD-P. The evaluations were at baseline, after 6-, 12-, and 24-month follow-up. No medication was prescribed during the 24-month follow-up. RESULTS: The prodromal symptoms remitted. The initial total score on the SIPS/SOPS was 37 points. After the first 12 months of PD-P, there was a reduction to 12 points on the SIPS/SOPS score, which stabilized in the 24-month follow-up. There was also a slight improvement in his performance on the neuropsychological evaluations. CONCLUSION: This case report suggests that PD-P can reduce prodromal symptoms; nevertheless, a better understanding of the specificity and efficacy of PD-P as an option of treatment for UHR individuals is needed.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk factors in a rural community in the Brazilian state of Bahia

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of cardiovascular risk factors in the rural community of Cavunge, in the Brazilian state of Bahia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out with 160 individuals (age > 19 years) randomly drawn from those listed in the population census of the Cavunge Project. The following parameters were studied: arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, obesity, smoking, waist-hip ratio (WHR), physical activity, and overall cardiovascular risk classified according to the Framingham score. The assessing parameters used were those established by the III Brazilian Consensus on Hypertension and the II Brazilian Consensus on Dyslipidemia. RESULTS: Of the randomly drawn individuals, 126 with a mean age of 46.6 + 19.7 years were included in the study, 43.7% of whom were males. The frequency of arterial hypertension was 36.5%; 20.4% of the individuals had cholesterol levels >240 mg/dL; 31.1% of the individuals had LDL-C levels > 130 mg/dL; 4% were diabetic; and 39.7% had a high-risk Framingham score. Abdominal obesity was observed in 41.3% of the population and in 57.7% of the females. High caloric-expenditure (HCE) physical activities were performed by 56.5% of the individuals. The HCE group had a greater frequency of normal triglyceride levels (63% vs 44%; P=0.05), no diabetes, and WHR tending towards normal (46% vs 27%, P=0.08) as compared with those in the low caloric-expenditure group. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, are frequently found in rural communities. The greatest frequency of normal triglyceride levels and normal WHR in the HCE group reinforces the association between greater caloric expenditure and a better risk profile.

Lipid profile and cardiovascular risk in two Amazonian populations

OBJECTIVE: To compare the lipid profiles and coronary heart disease risks of 2 Brazilian Amazonian populations as follows: a riverside population (village of Vigia) and an urban population (city of Belém in the state of Pará). METHODS: Fifty individuals controlled for age and sex were assessed in each region, and the major risk factors for coronary heart disease were analyzed. RESULTS: According to the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP III) and using the Framingham score, both populations had the same absolute risk of events (Vigia = 5.4 ± 1 vs Belém = 5.7 ± 1), although the population of Vigia had a lower consumption of saturated fat (P<0.0001), a greater consumption of mono- and polyunsaturated fat (P<0.03), in addition to lower values for body mass index (25.4± 0.6 vs 27.6 ± 0.7 kg/m², P<0.02), of biceps skin fold (18.6 ± 1.1 vs 27.5 ± 1.3 mm, P<0.0001), of triceps skin fold (28.7 ± 1.2 vs 37.3 ± 1.7 mm, P<0.002), and of total cholesterol (205 ± 5 vs 223 ± 6 mg/dL, P< 0.03) and triglycerides (119 ± 9 vs 177 ± 18 mg/dL, P<0.005). Both populations did not differ in regard to HDL-C (46 ± 1 vs 46 ± 1 mg/dL), LDL-C (135 ± 4 vs 144 ± 5 mg/dL) and blood pressure (SBP 124 ± 3 vs 128 ± 3 mmHg; DBP 80 ± 2 vs 82 ± 2 mmHg). CONCLUSION: The riverside and urban populations of Amazonia had similar cardiovascular risks. However, the marked difference in the variables studied suggests that different strategies of prevention should be applied.

Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective: Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods: We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. Results: The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion: Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles.

Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score in Brazil: Comparison with InsCor and the EuroSCORE

AbstractBackground:Risk scores for cardiac surgery cannot continue to be neglected.Objective:To assess the performance of “Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score” (ACEF Score) to predict mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery, and to compare it to other scores.Methods:A prospective cohort study was carried out with the database of a Brazilian tertiary care center. A total of 2,565 patients submitted to elective surgeries between May 2007 and July 2009 were assessed. For a more detailed analysis, the ACEF Score performance was compared to the InsCor’s and EuroSCORE’s performance through correlation, calibration and discrimination tests.Results:Patients were stratified into mild, moderate and severe for all models. Calibration was inadequate for ACEF Score (p = 0.046) and adequate for InsCor (p = 0.460) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750). As for discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was questionable for the ACEF Score (0.625) and adequate for InsCor (0.744) and EuroSCORE (0.763).Conclusion:Although simple to use and practical, the ACEF Score, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, was not accurate for predicting mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery in a Brazilian tertiary care center. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2015; [online].ahead print, PP.0-0)