THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

EVALUATION OF METHODS IN DETECTING VANCOMYCIN MIC AMONG MRSA ISOLATES AND THE CHANGES IN ACCURACY RELATED TO DIFFERENT MIC VALUES

INTRODUCTION: Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) presenting reduced susceptibility to vancomycin has been associated to therapeutic failure. Some methods used by clinical laboratories may not be sufficiently accurate to detect this phenotype, compromising results and the outcome of the patient. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of methods in the detection of vancomycin MIC values among clinical isolates of MRSA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The Vancomycin Minimal Inhibitory Concentration was determined for 75 MRSA isolates from inpatients of Mãe de Deus Hospital, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The broth microdilution (BM) was used as the gold-standard technique, as well as the following methods: E-test® strips (BioMérieux), M.I.C.E® strips (Oxoid), PROBAC® commercial panel and the automated system MicroScan® (Siemens). Besides, the agar screening test was carried out with 3 µg/mL of vancomycin. RESULTS: All isolates presented MIC ≤ 2 µg/mL for BM. E-test® had higher concordance (40%) in terms of global agreement with the gold standard, and there was not statistical difference among E-test® and broth microdilution results. PROBAC® panels presented MICs, in general, lower than the gold-standard panels (58.66% major errors), while M.I.C.E.® MICs were higher (67.99% minor errors). CONCLUSIONS: For the population of MRSA in question, E-test® presented the best performance, although with a heterogeneous accuracy, depending on MIC values.

The results of the Campaign for evaluating sphygmomanometers accuracy and their physical conditions

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sphygmomanometers calibration accuracy and the physical conditions of the cuff-bladder, bulb, pump, and valve. METHODS: Sixty hundred and forty five aneroid sphygmomanometers were evaluated, 521 used in private practice and 124 used in hospitals. Aneroid manometers were tested against a properly calibrated mercury manometer and were considered calibrated when the error was <=3mm Hg. The physical conditions of the cuffs-bladder, bulb, pump, and valve were also evaluated. RESULTS: Of the aneroid sphygmomanometers tested, 51% of those used in private practice and 56% of those used in hospitals were found to be not accurately calibrated. Of these, the magnitude of inaccuracy ranged from 4 to 8mm Hg in 70% and 51% of the devices, respectively. The problems found in the cuffs - bladders, bulbs, pumps, and valves of the private practice and hospital devices were bladder damage (34% vs. 21%, respectively), holes/leaks in the bulbs (22% vs. 4%, respectively), and rubber aging (15% vs. 12%, respectively). Of the devices tested, 72% revealed at least one problem interfering with blood pressure measurement accuracy. CONCLUSION: Most of the manometers evaluated, whether used in private practice or in hospitals, were found to be inaccurate and unreliable, and their use may jeopardize the diagnosis and treatment of arterial hypertension.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Accuracy of phenotypic methicillin susceptibility methods in the detection of Staphylococcus aureus isolates carrying different SCCmec types

A total of 138 isolates, 118 methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates (staphylococcal cassette chromosome type II, 20 isolates, type III, 39 isolates and type IV, 59 isolates) and 20 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus isolates were evaluated by phenotypic methods: cefoxitin and oxacillin disk diffusion (DD), agar dilution (AD), latex agglutination (LA), oxacillin agar screening (OAS) and chromogenic agar detection. All methods showed 100% specificity, but only the DD tests presented 100% sensitivity. The sensitivity of the other tests ranged from 82.2% (OAS)-98.3% (AD). The LA test showed the second lowest sensitivity (86.4%). The DD test showed high accuracy in the detection of MRSA isolates, but there was low precision in the detection of type IV isolates by the other tests, indicating that the genotypic characteristics of the isolates should be considered.

Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia

Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.

Accuracy of mucocutaneous leishmaniasis diagnosis using polymerase chain reaction: systematic literature review and meta-analysis

The diagnosis of mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL) is hampered by the absence of a gold standard. An accurate diagnosis is essential because of the high toxicity of the medications for the disease. This study aimed to assess the ability of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to identify MCL and to compare these results with clinical research recently published by the authors. A systematic literature review based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: the PRISMA Statement was performed using comprehensive search criteria and communication with the authors. A meta-analysis considering the estimates of the univariate and bivariate models was performed. Specificity near 100% was common among the papers. The primary reason for accuracy differences was sensitivity. The meta-analysis, which was only possible for PCR samples of lesion fragments, revealed a sensitivity of 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.59; 0.81] and a specificity of 93% (95% CI = 0.83; 0.98) in the bivariate model. The search for measures that could increase the sensitivity of PCR should be encouraged. The quality of the collected material and the optimisation of the amplification of genetic material should be prioritised.

Critical thinking and accuracy of nurses' diagnoses. Part I: risk of low accuracy diagnoses and new views of critical thinking

Interpretations of patient data are complex and diverse, contributing to a risk of low accuracy nursing diagnoses. This risk is confirmed in research findings that accuracy of nurses' diagnoses varied widely from high to low. Highly accurate diagnoses are essential, however, to guide nursing interventions for the achievement of positive health outcomes. Development of critical thinking abilities is likely to improve accuracy of nurses' diagnoses. Newer views of critical thinking serve as a basis for critical thinking in nursing. Seven cognitive skills and ten habits of mind are identified as dimensions of critical thinking for use in the diagnostic process.

Critical thinking and accuracy of nurses' diagnoses. Part II: application of cognitive skills and guidelines for self-development

Part I of this article, the author explained the difficulties of achieving accuracy of nurses' diagnoses, the relevance of critical thinking to the achievement of accuracy, and newer views of critical thinking. In Part II, the critical thinking dimensions identified as important for nursing practice are applied in the diagnostic process using a case study of a 16 year old girl with type 1 diabetes. Application of seven cognitive skills and ten habits of mind illustrate the importance of using critical thinking for accuracy of nurses' diagnoses. Ten strategies are proposed for self-development of critical thinking abilities.

Adaptação para a língua portuguesa e validação do Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses

O Lunney Scoring Method for Rating Accuracy of Nursing Diagnoses (LSM) é uma escala de diferencial semântico que foi desenvolvida por Lunney para estimar a acurácia dos diagnósticos de enfermagem. O objetivo deste estudo foi adaptar o LSM para a língua portuguesa e avaliar as sua propriedades psicométricas. A escala original foi traduzida para o português, revertida para o inglês e as duas versões em inglês foram comparadas para ajustar a versão em português que passou a ser denominada Escala de Acurácia de Diagnóstico de Enfermagem de Lunney - EADE. Quatro enfermeiras foram orientadas sobre a EADE e a aplicaram em 159 diagnósticos formulados para 26 pacientes de três estudos primários com base nos registros de entrevista e exame físico de cada paciente. Os índices Kappa de Cohen mostraram ausência de concordância entre as avaliadoras, o que indica que o instrumento adaptado não tem confiabilidade satisfatória. Em virtude desse resultado, não foi realizada estimativa de validade.

Nursing diagnosis sedentary lifestyle in individuals with hypertension: an analysis of accuracy

Objective Assessing the accuracy of the defining characteristics (DC) of the nursing diagnosis Sedentary Lifestyle (SL) in people with hypertension. Method A cross-sectional study carried out in a referral center in the outpatient care of people with hypertension and diabetes, with a sample of 285 individuals. The form used in the study was designed from operational definitions constructed for each DC of the diagnosis. Four nurses with training to carry out diagnostic inferences did the clinical assessment for the presence of SL. Results The prevalence of SL was 55.8%. Regarding measures of accuracy, the main DC for SL was chooses a daily routine lacking physical exercise, with sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 84.13%. Two DC stood out in the logistic regression, namely: reports preference for activities low in physical activity and poor performance in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Conclusion The results allowed identifying the best clinical indicators for SL in hypertensive adults.

Computer-assisted cartography using topographic properties: precision and accuracy of local soil maps in central Mexico

Map units directly related to properties of soil-landscape are generated by local soil classes. Therefore to take into consideration the knowledge of farmers is essential to automate the procedure. The aim of this study was to map local soil classes by computer-assisted cartography (CAC), using several combinations of topographic properties produced by GIS (digital elevation model, aspect, slope, and profile curvature). A decision tree was used to find the number of topographic properties required for digital cartography of the local soil classes. The maps produced were evaluated based on the attributes of map quality defined as precision and accuracy of the CAC-based maps. The evaluation was carried out in Central Mexico using three maps of local soil classes with contrasting landscape and climatic conditions (desert, temperate, and tropical). In the three areas the precision (56 %) of the CAC maps based on elevation as topographical feature was higher than when based on slope, aspect and profile curvature. The accuracy of the maps (boundary locations) was however low (33 %), in other words, further research is required to improve this indicator.

Soybean crop area estimation by Modis/Evi data

The objective of this work was to develop a procedure to estimate soybean crop areas in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. Estimations were made based on the temporal profiles of the enhanced vegetation index (Evi) calculated from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (Modis) images. The methodology developed for soybean classification was named Modis crop detection algorithm (MCDA). The MCDA provides soybean area estimates in December (first forecast), using images from the sowing period, and March (second forecast), using images from the sowing and maximum crop development periods. The results obtained by the MCDA were compared with the official estimates on soybean area of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. The coefficients of determination ranged from 0.91 to 0.95, indicating good agreement between the estimates. For the 2000/2001 crop year, the MCDA soybean crop map was evaluated using a soybean crop map derived from Landsat images, and the overall map accuracy was approximately 82%, with similar commission and omission errors. The MCDA was able to estimate soybean crop areas in Rio Grande do Sul State and to generate an annual thematic map with the geographic position of the soybean fields. The soybean crop area estimates by the MCDA are in good agreement with the official agricultural statistics.

Local behavior and lymph node metastases of Wilms' tumor: accuracy of computed tomography

Objective To evaluate the accuracy of computed tomography for local and lymph node staging of Wilms' tumor. Materials and Methods Each case of Wilms' tumor was evaluated for the presence of abdominal lymph nodes by a radiologist. Signs of capsule and adjacent organ invasion were analyzed. Surgical and histopathological results were taken as the gold standard. Results Sensitivity was 100% for both mesenteric and retroperitoneal lymph nodes detection, and specificity was, respectively, 12% and 33%, with positive predictive value of 8% and 11% and negative predictive value of 100%. Signs of capsular invasion presented sensitivity of 87%, specificity of 77%, positive predictive value of 63% and negative predictive value of 93%. Signs of adjacent organ invasion presented sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 78%, positive predictive value of 37% and negative predictive value of 100%. Conclusion Computed tomography tumor showed low specificity and low positive predictive value in the detection of lymph node dissemination. The absence of detectable lymph nodes makes their presence unlikely, and likewise regarding the evaluation of local behavior of tumors.

Accuracy of computer-aided ultrasound as compared with magnetic resonance imaging in the evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in obese and eutrophic adolescents

AbstractObjective:To compare the accuracy of computer-aided ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by means of hepatorenal gradient analysis in the evaluation of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in adolescents.Materials and Methods:This prospective, cross-sectional study evaluated 50 adolescents (aged 11–17 years), including 24 obese and 26 eutrophic individuals. All adolescents underwent computer-aided US, MRI, laboratory tests, and anthropometric evaluation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were evaluated for both imaging methods, with subsequent generation of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculation of the area under the ROC curve to determine the most appropriate cutoff point for the hepatorenal gradient in order to predict the degree of steatosis, utilizing MRI results as the gold-standard.Results:The obese group included 29.2% girls and 70.8% boys, and the eutrophic group, 69.2% girls and 30.8% boys. The prevalence of NAFLD corresponded to 19.2% for the eutrophic group and 83% for the obese group. The ROC curve generated for the hepatorenal gradient with a cutoff point of 13 presented 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity. As the same cutoff point was considered for the eutrophic group, false-positive results were observed in 9.5% of cases (90.5% specificity) and false-negative results in 0% (100% sensitivity).Conclusion:Computer-aided US with hepatorenal gradient calculation is a simple and noninvasive technique for semiquantitative evaluation of hepatic echogenicity and could be useful in the follow-up of adolescents with NAFLD, population screening for this disease as well as for clinical studies.