A SARIMA forecasting model to predict the number of cases of dengue in Campinas, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Forecasting dengue cases in a population by using time-series models can provide useful information that can be used to facilitate the planning of public health interventions. The objective of this article was to develop a forecasting model for dengue incidence in Campinas, southeast Brazil, considering the Box-Jenkins modeling approach. METHODS: The forecasting model for dengue incidence was performed with R software using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. We fitted a model based on the reported monthly incidence of dengue from 1998 to 2008, and we validated the model using the data collected between January and December of 2009. RESULTS: SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1)12 was the model with the best fit for data. This model indicated that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be estimated by the number of dengue cases occurring one, two and twelve months prior. The predicted values for 2009 are relatively close to the observed values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this article indicate that SARIMA models are useful tools for monitoring dengue incidence. We also observe that the SARIMA model is capable of representing with relative precision the number of cases in a next year.

The Bambuí health and ageing study (BHAS): methodological approach and preliminary results of a population-based cohort study of the elderly in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: A cohort study has been designed to identify predictors of adverse health events in the elderly. The methodology of the study and preliminary descriptive results are presented. METHODS: The study population comprises all residents of Bambuí (Minas Gerais, Brazil), aged 60 or more years (n=1.742). From these, 92.2% were interviewed and 85.9% underwent clinical examination, consisting of haematological and biochemical tests, serology for Trypanosoma cruzi, anthropometric and blood pressure measures and electrocardiogram. Aliquots of serum, plasma and DNA were stored for future investigations. The baseline interview included sociodemographic characteristics, self-referred health condition and history of selected diseases, medication use, health service use, source of medical care, physical activities, smoking, drinking and eating habits, reproductive history, physical functioning, life events, social support and mental health. Individuals are being followed up annually. RESULTS: The following characteristics predominated among participants: women (60,0%), married (48.9%) or widowed (35.4%), people living in households with up to 2 residents (73.8%), heads of family (76.7%), people with monthly income between 1.00 and 2.99 Brazilian minimum wages (62.0%) and people with up to 4 years of schooling (89.1%). The median age was 68 years. Among the cohort members, only 1.7% were lost in the first follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the characteristics of the study population were very similar to those from other epidemiological studies of the elderly based on large Brazilian cities. The small number of losses to follow-up indicates that the choice of Bambuí was adequate, assuring the feasibility of a long term cohort study.

Core group approach to identify college students at risk for sexually transmitted infections

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the core group for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among college students. METHODS: Cross-sectional study carried out in a convenience sample comprising 711 college students of the public university of Morelos, Mexico, between 2001 and 2003. Sociodemographic and sexual behavior information were collected using self-applied questionnaires. Herpes simplex 2 (HSV-2) infection was tested in the blood. The number of sexual partners in the last year and cocaine consumption were used as indicators to construct the dependent variable "level of STI risk" in three categories: low, medium and high risk (core group). A multinomial analysis was conducted to evaluate whether different sex behaviors were associated with the variable "level of STI risk". RESULTS: There was significant association between HSV-2 seroprevalence and the variable "level of STI risk": 13%, 5.6% and 3.8% were found in high (core group), medium and low categories, respectively. There were gender differences regarding the core group. Men started having sexual intercourse earlier, had more sex partners, higher alcohol and drug consumption, higher frequency of sex intercourse with sex workers, exchanging sex for money, occasional and concurrent partners compared to women. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest existing contextual characteristics in the study population that affect their sex behavior. In Mexico, the cultural conception of sexuality is determined mainly by gender differences where men engage in higher risky sexual behavior than women.

Population health diagnosis with an ecohealth approach

OBJECTIVE To analyze the characteristics of health diagnosis according to the ecohealth approach in rural and urban communities in Mexico.METHODS Health diagnosis were conducted in La Nopalera, from December 2007 to October 2008, and in Atlihuayan, from December 2010 to October 2011. The research was based on three principles of the ecohealth approach: transdisciplinarity, community participation, gender and equity. To collect information, a joint methodology and several techniques were used to stimulate the participation of inhabitants. The diagnostic exercise was carried out in five phases that went from collecting information to prioritization of problems.RESULTS The constitution of the transdisciplinary team, as well as the participation of the population and the principle of gender/equity were differentials between the communities. In the rural community, the active participation of inhabitants and authorities was achieved and the principles of transdisciplinarity and gender/equity were incorporated.CONCLUSIONS With all the difficulties that entails the boost in participation, the incorporation of gender/equity and transdisciplinarity in health diagnosis allowed a holistic public health approach closer to the needs of the population.

Readmission of older patients after hospital discharge for hip fracture: a multilevel approach

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To identify individual and hospital characteristics associated with the risk of readmission in older inpatients for proximal femoral fracture in the period of 90 days after discharge. METHODS Deaths and readmissions were obtained by a linkage of databases of the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System and the System of Information on Mortality of the city of Rio de Janeiro from 2008 to 2011. The population of 3,405 individuals aged 60 or older, with non-elective hospitalization for proximal femoral fracture was followed for 90 days after discharge. Cox multilevel model was used for discharge time until readmission, and the characteristics of the patients were used on the first level and the characteristics of the hospitals on the second level. RESULTS The risk of readmission was higher for men (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95%CI 1.08–1.73), individuals more than 79 years old (HR = 1.45; 95%CI 1.06–1.98), patients who were hospitalized for more than two weeks (HR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.06-1.67), and for those who underwent arthroplasty when compared with the ones who underwent osteosynthesis (HR = 0.57; 95%CI 0.41–0.79). Besides, patients admitted to state hospitals had lower risk for readmission when compared with inpatients in municipal (HR = 1.71; 95%CI 1.09–2.68) and federal hospitals (HR = 1.81; 95%CI 1.00–3.27). The random effect of the hospitals in the adjusted model remained statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Hospitals have complex structures that reflect in the quality of care. Thus, we propose that future studies may include these complexities and the severity of the patients in the analysis of the data, also considering the correlation between readmission and mortality to reduce biases.

FALSE-NEGATIVE DENGUE CASES IN RORAIMA, BRAZIL: AN APPROACH REGARDING THE HIGH NUMBER OF NEGATIVE RESULTS BY NS1 AG KITS

Serum samples from 150 NS1-negative (Platelia ELISA) patients presumptively diagnosed with dengue were analyzed by the TaqMan probed real-time reverse transcription PCR (TaqMan qRT-PCR) method. The qRT-PCR positive samples were tested for serotype by semi-nested RT-PCR and a qualitative immunochromatographic assay for IgG and IgM. Molecular detection methods showed 33 (22%) positive samples out of 150 NS1-antigen negative samples. Of these, 72% were collected up to day 2 after the onset of symptoms, when diagnostic sensitivity of NS1-antigen test assays is significantly enhanced. Most of the cases were not characterized as secondary infection. Twenty-eight samples were successfully serotyped, 75% of which for DENV-4, 14% for DENV-2, 7% for DENV-3 and 4% for DENV-1. These findings reaffirm the hyperendemic situation of the state of Roraima and suggest a lower sensitivity of the NS1 test, mainly when DENV-4 is the predominant serotype. Health care providers should therefore be aware of samples tested negative by NS1 antigen assays, especially when clinical symptoms and other laboratory data results show evidence of dengue infection.

Antimicrobial use and incidence of multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a teaching hospital: an ecological approach

INTRODUCTION: Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major threat in healthcare settings. The use of antimicrobials can influence the incidence of resistant strains by direct and indirect mechanisms. The latter can be addressed by ecological studies. METHODS: Our group attempted to analyze the relation between the use of antipseudomonal drugs and the incidence of MDR-PA among 18 units from a 400-bed teaching hospital. The study had a retrospective, ecological design, comprising data from 2004 and 2005. Data on the use of four antimicrobials (amikacin, ciprofloxacin, ceftazidime and imipenem) were tested for correlation with the incidence of MDR-PA (defined as isolates resistant to the four antimicrobials of interest) in clinical cultures. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Significant correlations were determined between use and resistance for all antimicrobials in the univariate analysis: amikacin (standardized correlation coefficient = 0.73, p = 0.001); ciprofloxacin (0.71, p = 0.001); ceftazidime (0.61, p = 0.007) and imipenem (0.87, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only imipenem (0.67, p = 0.01) was independently related to the incidence of multidrug-resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: These findings share similarities with those reported in individual-based observational studies, with possible implications for infection control.

Fungemia in a university hospital: an epidemiological approach

INTRODUCTION: Fungemia corresponds to the isolation of fungi in the bloodstream and occurs mostly in immunosuppressed patients. The early diagnosis and treatment of these infections are relevant given the serious threat to the affected patients and possible spread to other organs, often becoming fatal. The growing number of fungemia associated with poor prognosis resulted in this research aiming to diagnose and assess the epidemiological aspects of hematogenous infections by fungi. METHODS: The study included 58 blood samples collected within a 1-year period, from patients at the Hospital das Clinicas, Federal University of Pernambuco, by venipuncture in vacuum tubes. Blood samples were processed for direct examination and culture and identification, conducted by observing the macroscopic and microscopic characteristics, as well as physiological characteristics when necessary. RESULTS: Eight (13.8%) episodes of fungemia were identified, accounting for the total sample, and these pathogens were Candida, Histoplasma, Trichosporon, Cryptococcus, and a dematiaceous fungus. C. albicans was the prevalent species, accounting for 37.5% of the cases. Most affected patients were adult males. There was no predominance for any activity, and the risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome was the underlying pathology most often cited. CONCLUSIONS: The isolation of fungi considered as emergent species, such as C. membranifaciens and dematiaceous species, highlights the importance of epidemiological monitoring of cases of fungemia in immunocompromised patients, as the therapy of choice depends on the knowledge of the aethiological agent.

Description of continuous data using bar graphs: a misleading approach

INTRODUCTION:With the ease provided by current computational programs, medical and scientific journals use bar graphs to describe continuous data.METHODS:This manuscript discusses the inadequacy of bars graphs to present continuous data.RESULTS:Simulated data show that box plots and dot plots are more-feasible tools to describe continuous data.CONCLUSIONS:These plots are preferred to represent continuous variables since they effectively describe the range, shape, and variability of observations and clearly identify outliers. By contrast, bar graphs address only measures of central tendency. Bar graphs should be used only to describe qualitative data.

Current and previous eating practices among women recovered from anorexia nervosa: a qualitative approach

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze qualitatively how women, who have recovered from anorexia nervosa, perceive and describe their current eating practices, as well as the ones developed during the eating disorder period. METHODS: Seven women were interviewed individually with the objective of investigating their eating practices, transition phases and all relevant aspects that somewhat contributed to the habit-forming; experiences, feelings and perceptions related to mealtime and the influence that food has had over the present subjects' life. The interviews were analyzed by the discourse of the collective subject method. RESULTS: The results brought up the following topics: a) control; b) concerns and feelings; c) deprivation d) beauty dictatorship; e) eating competence; f) importance of food; g) food cacophony. CONCLUSIONS: What stands out is a multiplicity of eating practices, which during the eating disorder were similar to and characterized by restriction; however, after recovery, part of the subjects seem to have developed a higher eating competence, whereas others show a practice similar to the one acquired during the anorexia nervosa, such as the difficulty in realizing when they are satisfied and a feeling of discomfort when facing social interactions.

Therapeutic approach to patients complaining of high blood pressure in a cardiological emergency room

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the management of patients complaining of high blood pressure (BP) in a cardiological emergency room. METHODS: Patients referred to the cardiological emergency room with the main complaint of high blood pressure were consecutively selected. The prescriptions and the choice of antihypertensive drugs were assessed. The classification of these patients as hypertensive emergencies or pseudoemergencies, according to the physician who provided initial care, was recorded. RESULTS: From a total of 858 patients presenting to the emergency room, 80 (9.3%) complained of high BP, and 61 (76.3%) received antihypertensive drugs. Sublingual nifedipine was the most commonly used drug (59%). One patient received intravenous medication, one patient was hospitalized and 6 patients (7.5%) were classified as hypertensive emergencies or pseudoemergencies. CONCLUSION: High BP could seldom be classified as a hypertensive emergency or pseudoemergency, even though it was a frequent complaint (9.3% of visits). Currently, the therapeutic approach is not recommended, even in specialized clinics.

Chest pain in the emergency room. Importance of a systematic approach

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficiency of a systematic diagnostic approach in patients with chest pain in the emergency room in relation to the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the rate of hospitalization in high-cost units. METHODS: One thousand and three consecutive patients with chest pain were screened according to a pre-established process of diagnostic investigation based on the pre-test probability of ACS determinate by chest pain type and ECG changes. RESULTS: Of the 1003 patients, 224 were immediately discharged home because of no suspicion of ACS (route 5) and 119 were immediately transferred to the coronary care united because of ST elevation or left bundle-branch block (LBBB) (route 1) (74% of these had a final diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction [AMI]). Of the 660 patients that remained in the emergency room under observation, 77 (12%) had AMI without ST segment elevation and 202 (31%) had unstable angina (UA). In route 2 (high probability of ACS) 17% of patients had AMI and 43% had UA, whereas in route 3 (low probability) 2% had AMI and 7 % had UA. The admission ECG has been confirmed as a poor sensitivity test for the diagnosis of AMI ( 49%), with a positive predictive value considered only satisfactory (79%). CONCLUSION: A systematic diagnostic strategy, as used in this study, is essential in managing patients with chest pain in the emergency room in order to obtain high diagnostic accuracy, lower cost, and optimization of the use of coronary care unit beds.

A new surgical approach for treating dilated cardiomyopathy with mitral regurgitation

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the early outcome of mitral valve prostheses implantation and left ventricular remodeling in 23 patients with end-stage cardiomyopathy and secondary mitral regurgitation (NYHA class III and IV). METHODS: Mitral valvular prosthesis implantation with preservation of papillary muscles and chordae tendinae, and plasty of anteriun cuspid for remodeling of the left ventricle. RESULTS: The surgery was performed in 23 patients, preoperative ejection fraction (echocardiography) varied from 13% to 44% (median: 30%). In 13 patients associated procedures were performed: myocardial revascularization (9), left ventricle plicature repair (3) and aortic prosthese implantation (1). Early deaths (2) occurred on the 4th PO day (cardiogenic shock) and on the 20th PO day (upper gastrointestinal bleeding), and a late death in the second month PO (ventricular arrhythmia). Improvement occurred in NYHA class in 82.6% of the patients (P<0.0001), with a survival rate of 86.9% (mean of 8.9 months of follow-up). CONCLUSION: This technique offers a promising therapeutic alternative for the treatment of patients in refractory heart failure with cardiomyopathy and secondary mitral regurgitation.

Transradial approach for coronary interventions

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility and safety of coronary interventions performed through the radial artery. METHODS: We studied 103 patients with ages from 38 to 86 years (57±8.7), 90 (87%) males, and: radial pulse with a good amplitude, presence of ulnar pulse, a good collateral flow through the palmar arch assessed with the Allen's test. RESULTS: The vascular approach was obtained in 97 (94%) patients, 88 (91%) treated electively and 9 (9%) during acute myocardial infarction, for primary angioplasty; 56 (64%) unstable angina; 22 (25%) stable angina; 10 (11%) were asymptomatic, 6 referred for recanalization of chronic occlusion and 4 silent ischemia in the first week after acute myocardial infarction. We approached 107 arteries: anterior descending artery, 49 (46%); right coronary artery, 27 (25%); circumflex artery, 25 (23%); diagonal artery, 6 (6%); and 2 saphenous vein bypass grafts. We treated 129 lesions: 80 (62%) B2 type; 23 (18%) B1 type; 17 (13%) C type; and 9 (7%). A type. There were 70 stents , and 59 balloon angioplasties performed. Thirty-two (33%) patients used GP IIb/IIIa inhibitors. The mean duration of the elective procedure was 42.3±12.8 min. Success, correct stent deployment and residual lesion <20%, was reached in 100% of the lesions treated with stent implantation; arterial dilation with residual lesion <50% was obtained in 96% of the lesions treated with transluminal coronary angioplasty (TCA). Complications, were: 1 (1.0%) non-Q-wave acute myocardial infarction; 2 (2%) hematomas in the forearm; and 2 losses of radial pulse. CONCLUSION: Radial artery aproach is practical and safe for percutaneous coronary interventions there was a low incidence of complications.

Implications of the Hemodynamic Optimization Approach Guided by Right Heart Catheterization in Patients with Severe Heart Failure

OBJECTIVE: To report the hemodynamic and functional responses obtained with clinical optimization guided by hemodynamic parameters in patients with severe and refractory heart failure. METHODS: Invasive hemodynamic monitoring using right heart catheterization aimed to reach low filling pressures and peripheral resistance. Frequent adjustments of intravenous diuretics and vasodilators were performed according to the hemodynamic measurements. RESULTS: We assessed 19 patients (age = 48±12 years and ejection fraction = 21±5%) with severe heart failure. The intravenous use of diuretics and vasodilators reduced by 12 mm Hg (relative reduction of 43%) pulmonary artery occlusion pressure (P<0.001), with a concomitant increment of 6 mL per beat in stroke volume (relative increment of 24%, P<0.001). We observed significant associations between pulmonary artery occlusion pressure and mean pulmonary artery pressure (r=0.76; P<0.001) and central venous pressure (r=0.63; P<0.001). After clinical optimization, improvement in functional class occurred (P< 0.001), with a tendency towards improvement in ejection fraction and no impairment to renal function. CONCLUSION: Optimization guided by hemodynamic parameters in patients with refractory heart failure provides a significant improvement in the hemodynamic profile with concomitant improvement in functional class. This study emphasizes that adjustments in blood volume result in imme-diate benefits for patients with severe heart failure.