From print to screen: changes and challenges facing the Brazilian publishing industry

The publishing industry is at a turning point. Facing the first major disruptive innovation in five centuries, its long-established structure and business model are at stake. Building on literature based on the pitfalls for incumbents, we interviewed key executives from the major publishers in Brazil to understand their perspective. We find that not only are they facing those pitfalls, but we also propose a new one, The Industry View Trap, concerning challenges created by convergence, the difficulty to deal with changes in the ecosystem and the fact that the very definition of the industry you're part of might have changed.

E-publishing development and changes in the scholarly communication system

New and alternative scientific publishing business models is a reality driven mostly by the information and communication technologies, by the movements towards the recovery of control of the scientific communication activities by the academic community, and by the open access approaches. The hybrid business model, mixing open and toll-access is a reality and they will probably co-exist with respective trade-offs. This essay discusses the changes driven by the epublishing and the impacts on the scholarly communication system stakeholders' interrelationships (publishers-researchers, publishers-libraries and publishers-users interrelationships), and the changes on the scientific publishing business models, followed by a discussion of possible evolving business models. Whatever the model which evolves and dominates, a huge cultural change in authors' and institutions publishing practices will be necessary in order to make the open access happen and to consolidate the right business models for the traditional publishers. External changes such as policies, rewarding systems and institutions mandates should also happen in order to sustain the whole changing scenario.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.