43 resultados para Extreme Quantile
em Scielo Saúde Pública - SP
Resumo:
Random amplified polymorphic DNA markers (RAPD) were used to estimate the variability of 14 genotypes of Brazilian wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), using a set of 50 random 10mer primers. A total of 256 reproducibly scorable DNA amplification products were obtained from 48 of the primers, 83% of which were polymorphic. Genetic distances among genotypes were calculated and a dendrogram and a principal coordinates analysis showing the genetic relationships among them were obtained. Despite the low variability found (average genetic distance of 27%), two groups of genotypes could be identified, which probably reflect how they were formed. Studies such as this one may be important in the planning and development of future improvement programs for this plant species.
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This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.
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The application of the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the probability of occurrence of extreme low Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values leads to an increase of the knowledge related to the occurrence of extreme dry months. This sort of analysis can be carried out by means of two approaches: the block maxima (BM; associated with the General Extreme Value distribution) and the peaks-over-threshold (POT; associated with the Generalized Pareto distribution). Each of these procedures has its own advantages and drawbacks. Thus, the main goal of this study is to compare the performance of BM and POT in characterizing the probability of occurrence of extreme dry SPI values obtained from the weather station of Ribeirão Preto-SP (1937-2012). According to the goodness-of-fit tests, both BM and POT can be used to assess the probability of occurrence of the aforementioned extreme dry SPI monthly values. However, the scalar measures of accuracy and the return level plots indicate that POT provides the best fit distribution. The study also indicated that the uncertainties in the parameters estimates of a probabilistic model should be taken into account when the probability associated with a severe/extreme dry event is under analysis.
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Halotolerant or halophilic (Archaeabacteria) microorganisms can be found in salted and ripening fish products that are not affected by salt. They can be moderate or extremely halophilic bacteria. The extremely halophilic bacteria require between 15-30% of NaCl for growth. The extremely halophilic archaeobacteria may be selectively isolated in different media. The aim of this work was to determine the effectiveness of the Salt-Agar-Milk medium, a medium modified in our laboratory through the addition of MgSO4 and KCl - named SAMm, and its effect on the bacterial growth by means of comparison with other media, with and without milk, determining time of incubation and counting. Two samples of salted fish from local fish salting factories and two laboratory strains were used. The factory samples were matured anchovy and anchovy fillets in oil, and the laboratory strains were: Haloarcula spp. (proteolytic) and Halococcus spp. (non-proteolytic). The following media were alternatively used for the isolation of extremely halophilic bacteria: IRAM; Formulation of Gibbons and collaborators, Cod Milk agar, and SAMm. IRAM and Gibbons were also used enriched with milk. In the SAMm medium, there were obtained count values similar or higher than the ones of the traditional media; besides the simplicity of its elaboration, the possibility to obtain positive results two or three days earlier also added to its benefit. Consequently, it can be considered an alternative to the media traditionally used for the studied halophilic bacteria.
Resumo:
In 1970 the population of Brazil with 94,508,554 inhabitants was extreme youth, since 42.67% was composed of children under 14 years old. In that year the proportion of female was 50.2%. The population density increased from 1.17 inhabitants /km² in 1872 to 11.18 in 1970, and in this last year the range was 1.03 in the North region and 43.90 in the South-East region. The urban population increased from 31.24% in 1940 to 55.98% in 1970 and for the first time the rural population was smaller than the urban population. In 1950 concerning with marital status 39% of the population 15 years old and over was single and 54% married. In 1970 this rate was respectively 35.4% and 56.6%. The population economically inactive increased from 49.17% in 1940 to 52.24% in 1970. The literacy ratio increased from 43% in 1940, to 48% in 1950 and 68.04% in 1970. The crude birth rate was 43/1000 live births in 1950 and fell to 37.7/1000 in 1970. The fertility rate decreased from 179.3/1000 women (15-49 years old} to 156.7/1000 in 1960/70. The crude death rate decreased from 20.60/1000 inhabitants in 1940/50 to 9.4/1000 in 1960/70. The infant mortality rate still remains high: 171/1000 live births in 1940/50 and 170/1000 in 1971. Concerning with the size of the cities, 8 in 1940 had 100,000 or more inhabitants and in 1970 this number increased to 94 cities. The population growth increased from 2.38% in 1940/50, to 2.99% in 1950/60 and 2.83% in 1960./70. Brazil is the first country in population size in Latin America and the eighth in the world. Concerning his area, Brazil is the fifth country in size.
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To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.
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Between November 2001 and December 2002, 600 dog fecal samples were collected in main squares and public parks of 13 cities in Chile, from the extreme north to the extreme south of the country. The samples were processed in the laboratory by centrifugal sedimentation and the Harada-Mori methods. T. canis eggs were found in 12 cities. Detection rates ranged from 1.9 to 12.5% with an average of 5.2%. Seven percent of the samples had eggs and 9.5% had rhabditoid and/or filariform larvae of Ancylostomatidae. Strongyloides stercoralis were not found. Squares and public parks in Chile pose a potential risk of exposure to visceral, ocular, and/or cutaneous larva migrans syndromes.
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OBJECTIVE: To describe sleep, stress and compensatory behaviors in nurses and midwives. METHODS: The study included 41 midwives and 21 nurses working in Australian hospitals between 2005 and 2009. Participation was voluntary. All participants recorded on a daily basis their work and sleep hours, levels of stress and exhaustion, caffeine intake and use of sleep aids for a month (1,736 days, 1,002 work shifts). RESULTS: Participants reported moderate to high levels of stress and exhaustion on 20-40% of work days; experienced sleep disruption on more than 50% of work days; struggled to remain awake on 27% of work days; and suffered extreme drowsiness or experienced a near accident while travelling home on 9% of workdays. Age, perceived sleep duration and work hours were significant predictors of caffeine intake. About 60% of participants reported using sleep aids (about 20% reported taking prescription medications and 44% of nurses and 9% of midwives reported alcohol use as a sleep aid at least once during the study). Stress and workdays were significant predictors of sedative use. Overall, 22% reported being indifferent or mildly dissatisfied with their job. CONCLUSIONS: Sleep problems, high levels of stress and exhaustion and low job satisfaction are prevalent among nurses and midwives. The use of alcohol and sleeping pills as sleep aids, and the use of caffeine to help maintain alertness is also common. Nurses and midwives may use caffeine to compensate for reduced sleep, especially on workdays, and sleeping pills to cope with their daily work-related stress.
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OBJECTIVE To propose a cut-off for the World Health Organization Quality of Life-Bref (WHOQOL-bref) as a predictor of quality of life in older adults. METHODS Cross-sectional study with 391 older adults registered in the Northwest Health District in Belo Horizonte, MG, Southeastern Brazil, between October 8, 2010 and May 23, 2011. The older adults’ quality of life was measured using the WHOQOL-bref. The analysis was rationalized by outlining two extreme and simultaneous groups according to perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health (quality of life good/satisfactory – good or very good self-reported quality of life and being satisfied or very satisfied with health – G5; and poor/very poor quality of life – poor or very poor self-reported quality of life and feeling dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with health – G6). A Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) was created to assess the diagnostic ability of different cut-off points of the WHOQOL-bref. RESULTS ROC curve analysis indicated a critical value 60 as the optimal cut-off point for assessing perceived quality of life and satisfaction with health. The area under the curve was 0.758, with a sensitivity of 76.8% and specificity of 63.8% for a cut-off of ≥ 60 for overall quality of life (G5) and sensitivity 95.0% and specificity of 54.4% for a cut-off of < 60 for overall quality of life (G6). CONCLUSIONS Diagnostic interpretation of the ROC curve revealed that cut-off < 60 for overall quality of life obtained excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value for tracking older adults with probable worse quality of life and dissatisfied with health.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.
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OBJECTIVE To analyze the incremental cost-utility ratio for the surgical treatment of hip fracture in older patients.METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study of a systematic sample of patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture at a central hospital of a macro-region in the state of Minas Gerais, Southeastern Brazil between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2011. A decision tree creation was analyzed considering the direct medical costs. The study followed the healthcare provider’s perspective and had a one-year time horizon. Effectiveness was measured by the time elapsed between trauma and surgery after dividing the patients into early and late surgery groups. The utility was obtained in a cross-sectional and indirect manner using the EuroQOL 5 Dimensions generic questionnaire transformed into cardinal numbers using the national regulations established by the Center for the Development and Regional Planning of the State of Minas Gerais. The sample included 110 patients, 27 of whom were allocated in the early surgery group and 83 in the late surgery group. The groups were stratified by age, gender, type of fracture, type of surgery, and anesthetic risk.RESULTS The direct medical cost presented a statistically significant increase among patients in the late surgery group (p < 0.005), mainly because of ward costs (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was higher in the late surgery group (7.4% versus 16.9%). The decision tree demonstrated the dominance of the early surgery strategy over the late surgery strategy: R$9,854.34 (USD4,387.17) versus R$26,754.56 (USD11,911.03) per quality-adjusted life year. The sensitivity test with extreme values proved the robustness of the results.CONCLUSIONS After controlling for confounding variables, the strategy of early surgery for hip fracture in the older adults was proven to be dominant, because it presented a lower cost and better results than late surgery.
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OBJECTIVE To estimate the budget impact from the incorporation of positron emission tomography (PET) in mediastinal and distant staging of non-small cell lung cancer.METHODS The estimates were calculated by the epidemiological method for years 2014 to 2018. Nation-wide data were used about the incidence; data on distribution of the disease´s prevalence and on the technologies’ accuracy were from the literature; data regarding involved costs were taken from a micro-costing study and from Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) database. Two strategies for using PET were analyzed: the offer to all newly-diagnosed patients, and the restricted offer to the ones who had negative results in previous computed tomography (CT) exams. Univariate and extreme scenarios sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the influence from sources of uncertainties in the parameters used.RESULTS The incorporation of PET-CT in SUS would imply the need for additional resources of 158.1 BRL (98.2 USD) million for the restricted offer and 202.7 BRL (125.9 USD) million for the inclusive offer in five years, with a difference of 44.6 BRL (27.7 USD) million between the two offer strategies within that period. In absolute terms, the total budget impact from its incorporation in SUS, in five years, would be 555 BRL (345 USD) and 600 BRL (372.8 USD) million, respectively. The costs from the PET-CT procedure were the most influential parameter in the results. In the most optimistic scenario, the additional budget impact would be reduced to 86.9 BRL (54 USD) and 103.8 BRL (64.5 USD) million, considering PET-CT for negative CT and PET-CT for all, respectively.CONCLUSIONS The incorporation of PET in the clinical staging of non-small cell lung cancer seems to be financially feasible considering the high budget of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The potential reduction in the number of unnecessary surgeries may cause the available resources to be more efficiently allocated.
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Children under five years of age, from two communities of different socio-economic strata (97 from Zaiman and 55 from Las Dolores) were examined epidemiologically during 2 years, by means of quarterly visits of the working team, who carried out the collection of faecal samples. During the study, one or more enteropathogens were identified in 73.9% of samples in children from Zaiman and in 58.3% of the samples from Las Dolores, being associated to diarrhoea in 70.5% and to asymptomatic infections in 65.7%. The number of diarrheic episodes was higher in Zaiman (15.45%) than in Las Dolores (12.35%), being more frequent in the spring-summer seasons. In Zaiman, the bacterial enteropathogen proportion was relevantly higher (p< 0.005) in children with diarrhoea, whereas the presence of parasites was more frequent in asymptomatic children (p< 0.01). Rotavirus had an even distribution within diarrheic and asymptomatic children. In Las Dolores, no relevant differences were found in the detection of enteroparasites between diarrheic and asymptomatic children. Mixed infections were detected; enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC)-rotavirus and ETEC-parasites being the most frequent ones. ETEC was involved in 85% of these infections. These data, together with the high enteropathogen carriage, suggest an elevated level of environmental contamination. The latter plays an important role in diarrheic diseases, and added to the most extreme poverty, it affects children's lives.
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Ten isolates of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis were examined for differences in virulence in outbred mice intravenously inoculated with the fungus, associated with mycelial morphology, and genetic patterns measured by random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). Virulence was evaluated by viable yeast cell recovery from lungs and demonstration of histopathologic lesions in different organs. The results showed that the isolates presented four virulence degrees: high virulence, intermediate, low and non-virulence. RAPD clustered the isolates studied in two main groups with 56% of genetic similarity. Strains with low virulence, Pb265 or the non-virulent, Pb192, showed glabrous/cerebriform morphology and high genetic similarity (98.7%) when compared to the other isolates studied. The same was observed with Bt79 and Bt83 that shared 96% genetic similarity, cottony colonies and high virulence. The RAPD technique could only discriminate P. brasiliensis isolates according to glabrous/cerebriform or cottony colonies, and also high from low virulence strains. Isolates with intermediate virulence such as Pb18, Pb18B6, Bt32 and Bt56 showed variability in their similarity coefficient suggesting that RAPD was able to detect genetic variability in this fungal specie. Virulence profile of P. brasiliensis demonstrated that both mycelial morphologic extreme phenotypes may be associated with fungal virulence and their in vitro subculture time. Thus, RAPD technique analysis employed in association with virulence, morphologic and immunologic aspects might prove adequate to detect differences between P. brasiliensis isolates.
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Neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBAs) have been widely used to control patients who need to be immobilized for some kind of medical intervention, such as an invasive procedure or synchronism with mechanical ventilation. The purpose of this monograph is to review the pharmacology of the NMBAs, to compare the main differences between the neuromuscular junction in neonates, infants, toddlers and adults, and moreover to discuss their indications in critically ill pediatric patients. Continuous improvement of knowledge about NMBAs pharmacology, adverse effects, and the many other remaining unanswered questions about neuromuscular junction and neuromuscular blockade in children is essential for the correct use of these drugs. Therefore, the indication of these agents in pediatrics is determined with extreme judiciousness. Computorized (Medline 1990-2000) and active search of articles were the mechanisms used in this review.